Summary:
- Confirmed cases rise to just shy of 35K in China and 24 other countries, deaths surge by 86 to 722, set to surpass SARS total in hours; total number of people under observation jumps to an all time high of 189,660.
- Suspected cases rose to 27,657 from 26,359 the day before, with 6,107 people in in serious/critical condition. Patients who have recovered jumped to 2,050,
- 6,107 people are in serious/critical condition
- Reporter says ‘real’ death toll could be closer to 20k
- German scientists say coronavirus can survive for 9 days on surfaces
- Chinese quarantine expanded to Guangzhou; 400 million now on lockdown
- Singapore raises response level to Orange
- Hong Kong confirms case No. 25
- Death of Dr. Li stokes demands for more free speech in China
* * *
Update (2000 ET): After two days of declines in the number of “new cases” reported by China’s National Health Commission, and the latest number of total infected in China coming in below JPMorgan’s daily estimate – no really, to JPM the number of daily new infections is just like the jobs report: it either beats or it misses…
… Saturday, Feb 8 saw an unexpected reversal in the downward slope in new cases, and as the NHC reported moments ago, as of Feb 7, China reported a total of 34,546 cases, (higher than JPMorgan’s base case forecast of 34,224, shown below)…
… an increase of 3,385 overnight, and the first rise in new cases in three days, suggesting any hopes that the pandemic had already peaked were just crushed.
Adding the 365 international cases, means that as of Saturday, there were a total of 34,911 global cases, resulting in 724 deaths – an increase of 86 on the day, the biggest one day rises since the pandemic started – and a mortality rate of 2.1%, which is where it has been stuck for the past ten days. At this rate of increase in officially reported (which is vastly different from the actual true number) cases, the coronavirus pandemic will claim more lives than SARS in under 24 hours.
Here one surprising observation: in the past two weeks what was initially an exponential curve in the number of new cases, has quietly shifted into a quadratic one, where the number of new cases is largely unchanged day after day, almost as if China wants to represent a higher number to preserve some credibility, but nowhere near as high as what it really is if the disease followed the traditional exponential progression.
Some other observations: the number of suspected cases rose to 27,657 from 26,359 the day before, with 6,107 people in in serious/critical condition. And while a record 722 have died – just 50 shy of the SARS record in 2003 – the number of those who have recovered from the diseases is now 2,050, with 25 total countries reporting cases.
And speaking of reversals, there was another notable one in the number of people receiving medical attention in China, because after sliding dramatically and even shrinking today, on Saturday the number of people under observation once again jumped, rising to 3,615 after a drop of 309 the day before.
One final point about all of the above: China is notorious about manipulating all of its economic data, why on earth would it publish accurate pandemic data, especially when it has repeatedly refused the presence of foreign observes in its fight to contain the deadly virus. As such, readers can simply ignore all of the above Chinese “goalseeks” and even Bloomberg notes that “total deaths may be far higher, given reports of an overwhelmed health system in Hubei, central China.”
Looking ahead, JPMorgan predicts that the epidemic will peak in 1.5 months, i.e., by mid-March, at which point the total infected people will grow to 85K.
* * *
Update: (1500ET): When the dust has settled and the novel coronavirus has finally died out, we can’t imagine how the World Health Organization will manage to revive its reputation.
After repeatedly defending China as a beacon of “transparency” and model for other emerging economies, the death of Dr. Li stands as a rebuke to WHO head Dr. Tedros, who has kowtowed to China at every turn.
Reuters reports that a cruise line has banned Chinese travelers. And Apple said it’s hoping to open its offices in China on Feb. 10, while it has extended the closure of its retail stores to Feb. 13.
With markets closing in the red, Larry Kudlow took to Fox News to remind traders that the coronavirus outbreak is really China’s problem, saying that the outbreak will likely hurt China’s economy – bad.
The outpouring of rage of Dr. Li’s death continued into the early hours of Saturday on the mainland, with the SCMP now reporting that it’s fueling demands for free speech. For many, his death symbolized Beijing’s missteps and repressive tendencies when dealing with the outbreak, as he was punished for being one of the first to warn about the outbreak.
“It is a very big crisis. China’s public opinion was divided, but this time a consensus has been formed. The public share the same attitude and harbour the sentiments of sympathy, suppression and grieving anger,” Wuhan University law professor Qin Qianhong said.
“I am worried that the situation could explode, or become like when [former Communist Party general secretary] Hu Yaobang died or even more serious.”
The death toll hasn’t budged all day:
Amnesty International weighed in on Dr. Li’s death, calling it a “tragic reminder” of how Beijing’s “preoccupation with stability” inspired it to suppress vital information.
As Beijing cracks down on dissident speech, cities appear to be ramping up stuff like this – spraying disinfectant on every public surface.
We're clearly being lied to, wtf is going on in China #coronavirus pic.twitter.com/iorXQDe8Cw
— Diocletian (@mouthofsoros) February 7, 2020
Over the last two days, Beijing has made a big show of opening two new hospitals in Wuhan that were built in under two weeks. We’ve already reported how the hospitals look more like prisons with medical equipment. But come to find out that most of the hospitals are actually being run by their patients. Dr. Feigl-Ding, the Harvard epidemiologist who is one of many academics slammed as an alarmist for telling the truth, tweeted that nearly one-third of the patients in one hospital in Wuhan are also medical staff. There’s a common trope to describe this: something about a lunatic and an asylum.
29% — that’s the % of the 138 #coronavirus infected patients who are actually infected medical staff in one Wuhan hospital. Almost 1 in 3 patients being hospital healthcare workers is just insane. New case series report in JAMA: https://t.co/j7HPV8j8dp pic.twitter.com/3Hmu3MaE7m
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) February 7, 2020
2) In addition to 29% medical staff, 12% of patients had gotten #coronavirus as hospital-acquired?. Quote: “Hospital-associated transmission was suspected as the presumed mechanism of infection for affected health professionals (40 [29%]) and hospitalized patients (17 [12.3%]).”
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) February 7, 2020
3) Astute readers added 29%+12% and asked if it means 41% of the 138 patients got ? as a hospital-acquired infection… yes but maybe not one’s personal risk walking into a hospital. 12% maybe weak/susceptible, and 29% medical staff have much closer contact than normal patients.
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) February 7, 2020
We wonder how many more doctors will need to die before the mainland really does ‘import Hong Kong’s sickness’?
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When this all started the mayor of Wuhan said half the citizens had left the city , that would be more than 5 million people, before the quarantine was put in place. The reason given was to celebrate the Chinese New Year.
I have a nagging feeling its a cover story to hide the true number of deaths. It makes no sense to now have over 400 million quarantined for 700 deaths.
sengfarmer
If this disease is not race specific it’s too late to stop a world wide pandemic.
Reality is a bitch, outside of China the death-rate is less than 1%
Inside of China, we get bullshit from the UK-USA anti-HK riot paid geeks on the internet.
This thing will be forgotten in a month
Look at the domesticated down votes here. And INTJs are the cream of the crop. Sad.
Coming soon…
It’s a time of unrest and your rights are suspended
There’s a list going round (and it’s likely you are on it)
The names on the blue list are picked up later
And the red list goes to the incinerator
We’re never going to end up in the furnace of a FEMA camp
Burning in the furnace, furnace of a FEMA camp
FEMA camp
There’s an Amtrak rail leading to the siding
Where a turnstile waits for all those disembarking
Blue zone, red zone – humanity fades
So I’m going to join up with the renegades
We’re never going to end up in the furnace of a FEMA camp
Burning in the furnace, furnace of a FEMA camp
FEMA camp
For some strange unknown reason, I had these lyrics jamming in my head to the theme song music for vintage TeeVee program “Petticoat Junction”.
You are right… the lyrics fit the PJ theme song.
If it helps, I came across this image of my aunt in 1957 and think it fits the bill.
(This is NOT one of my father’s photos. When I started collecting images like he did all his life, people started scanning them and sharing them from old albums and boxes. Photos like this one bring these people back to life.)
Canadian Scientist At Center Of Chinese Bio-Espionage Probe Found Dead In Africa?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/canadian-scientist-center-chinese-bio-espionage-probe-found-dead-africa
It’s perfectly sensible propaganda. Annual deaths in the US for ‘flu’ is roughly 30,000. China has 3 times the population. Coronavirus is propaganda to condition us to submission to the WHO. It’s just another flu, and not necessarily a very bad one. Flu pandemics go back 100 years. It’s fucking normal. Everybody stop expecting the government to protect you. That the attitude of meat cows in the fields you drive by and don’t much notice. Mooo. Hay. Moooo. You deserve to pay for all this coddling. Damn you.
normal flu has a mortality rate of about 0.1 percent. The death rate of this is (best guess so far) 2 percent…20 times more lethal.
Dang! That is a best guess by whom? That is so sad!
How’s this –
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
Normal flu
12,000 deaths / 9,300,000 cases = 0.13%
61,000 deaths / 45,000,000 cases = 0.14%
Maff if hard.
It’s not even close to being that bad. Most “FLU” deaths are really just pneumonia. But pumped up numbers sell flu shots, don’t they? Look at the pressure to get a flu shot, it’s everywhere. TV, every store you go into, social media. It is even mandatory for some health care workers. Who cares if it contains evil chemicals that harm the body. It make gazzilions AND it gives the gubbamint more control over your life at the same time. Win-fucking-win. For them. Almost as effective over the retarded sheep as blaming a beneficial gas that feeds plants that feeds humans as the means to the end of our planet in what 11 years now. If the folks buy either one of those, we all deserve the four horsemen. Good Lord, we have become a nation of Retards.
Dude – just chill, have a big bite of soy by-product fried in trans fats, take a drink of fluoride, and get your injection of mercury preservatives. Life is is much easier after you submit.
Haha, Sweeten it with some aspartame and add in some soylent green protein, along with the protocol of 12 pharma-drugs PP, and I am in!! Which FEMA camp am I supposed to report to?
The official Chinese government numbers indicate a mortality rate of no less than 7.6%, because deaths lag detection by up to two weeks or more, but people don’t seem to understand that.
Read the Timothy L Denton comment down thread.
or this
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2020/02/06/the-lies-we-are-being-told-about-the-coronavirus/#comment-1919522
Normalcy bias is strong with the not-too-bright. Why yes, this is only a bad cold/flu and 400 million under quarantine is SOP for flu season and doctors who help flu patients always dress in full hazmat and China always destroys their economy for flu season. Keep believing its the flu….don’t prep because its only the flu and nothing of value comes from China so you won’t be needing anything like prescription meds for your blood pressure or machined parts for your car….only thing being coddled is stupid people with strong normalcy bias who want to believe anything but the reality of the situation…..
“(M)ore than 400 million people forcibly locked inside their homes for 638 deaths? Just think about that: If there was ever a reason to believe that Beijing is lying about the numbers (and not just because Tencent accidentally leaked the real data), this is it.”
ZH
Of course, the Chi-Coms are lying…..they lie about everything, the more interesting question was posed by HSF is why did our own government not take definitive action? TPTB know with much greater certainty whether Beer-Flu is a serious threat or a flash in the pan. Beginning to look more like a serious threat. How long has the US Government known the lethality and contagious capabilities of Beer-Flu and who made the decision to not lock down access to America?
Does it even cross your mind that the US Government is lying? Might not 85-D Trump oversell the calamity to win the economic war? That does not matter. What matters is that the bureaucrats are expanding to expand. They want power. They want status. What is the point of medical authorities without pandemics? Therefore, the medical authorities will find pandemics. They will hype them. Maybe they will create them. But hype them they will. Cold War, War on Drugs, War on Terror, War on Poverty, War on Disease. I see no pattern here. The foreign villain is the one to fear most. It’s the damn Communists half way around the world!
“Does it even cross your mind that the US Government is lying?”
Only if their lips are moving!
I asked my son’s Mil why we were still letting in people from China and she, a school teacher, said because we are not like that. I said she will be like that if one of her daughter’s dies or her/our grand daughter dies.
Corona schmarona. There are waaaay more serious problems coming our way. Anybody listen to the news this morning?
IT WAS 65 DEGREES IN ANTARCTICA YESTERDAY!!!!! Ho Lee Fook.
— It hasn’t been that warm in Antarctica since dinosaurs roamed the planet. Really.
— If you own property within 5 miles of an ocean …. MOVE or SELL!! Really. I’m just trying to help.
— Greta might have been right all along. Really.
Then move to higher ground. There, just solved AGW.
I suppose I should allow for sarcasm. It’s summer time in the Southern Hemisphere.
I figure the Obamas are in-the-know about the real threat of rising sea levels. Until they sell their Martha’s Vineyard pad and move to higher ground, I won’t be too scared.
The only pandemic
is Democrats and other liars in public office.
There was a half hour segment dedicated to corona virus on CNBC friday after Mad Money. Lotta things said that other msm outlets arent saying yet, found it odd that this was on CNBC. Maybe this is the equivalent of all the affluent people getting a head start on the people without money. Kinda like the lifeboats on the titanic. Oh and they said not to hoard essential items in the first 30 seconds, and a doctor that said this WILL spread in the US. Im almost embarrassed to say i watched mad money…dont hold that against me guys. This weekend may be a gift to the affluent to prepare a bit before the volume goes to 11 on msm next week on this. Maybe we should do the same???
No harm in watching “Mad Money” for entertainment, just don’t use it for a roadmap.
I’m sure this isn’t your area of expertise, but the death rate is being calculated incorrectly here.
You are calculating it from the percentage of those currently infected. 600 is roughly 2% of 32000. But the people dying are not the population that is being infected today, or even last week. It takes weeks for the novel Cornavirus to kill. The correct comparison is to the size of the population that was infected two or thee weeks ago. The infection total is exponential, roughly doubling every week. So the death rae for the population of two weeks ago is at least 8%. It is often remarked that exponential are not intuitive and few people reason well with them.
This 2% is all over the internet, but that does not make it right. You are probably just repeating that number. You may want to present this to someone’s who mathematical reasoning your trust, if not your own.
29 percent of hospital staff infected? Sort of puts a new spin on “nosocomial infection”. . . .
I said I would not open my mouth, and against my better judgment I am certain, but here it goes. For all of you mindless idiots that continue to spew your nonsensical foolishness about how this corona virus is nothing more than the flu, you are truly a moron and the very reason I decided I would never comment on TBP any longer. Why converse with fools who know absolutely nothing that they are talking about, absolutely nothing? Do you have nothing better to do with your life than arm chair quarterback? Hype? The MSM is not hyping anything! They are suppressing it you fools! For your information I have a brother there in the midst of that hell hole right now and it is beyond a nightmare, the best he can understand is tens of thousands dead right now, several he personally knew. The fury that wells inside me when I read your B.S. comments is more than I can possibly explain, to hell with your stupidity!
There are several of you on TBP who do understand that there is more than meets the eye, I appreciate that you possess enough brains and discernment to observe, and not that you need any pat on the back from me but thank you for being a voice of reason. The amount of misinformation coming from the MSM and of course communist China is beyond unbelievable, this world is filled with lies. Will the virus hit here as it has in China? God only knows. I have many thoughts and speculations on the matter but that is all so why voice it? It is something we should all be praying about and watching very close.
It’s a Chinese fuck up. I worked for these bastards for 6-1/2 years, and if something goes FUBAR you can bet it is really a full order of magnitude worse than what they let on it really is, and the effort to cover it up and blame underlings is two orders of magnitude greater than the efforts to fix it.
We all know MSM lies … all the time. Disheartening … disingenuous when someone starts spouting their nonsense simply because the MSM lie dovetails with the narrative they want to believe. You don’t quarantine 400 million people for nothing. You don’t weld the doors of apartment complexes shut for nothing. You don’t have the military roaming the streets in hazmat suits for nothing. You don’t fog the hell out of the city streets with only God knows what …. for nothing. Seriously. Does anything further need to be said?
Thank you for this need to be said comment. The moronic and ill informed B.S. from some board members is breathtaking.
Your brother is currently living in China in one of the quarantine zones where his friends are dying?
Then why aren’t you posting his first hand account of what’s going on since you’re in direct communications with him? That way we’d actually know something instead of having to conjecture based on media interpretations of ChiCom PR.
I understand and if you don’t want people “bugging” you, certainly email your information to [email protected] or you can send them to me at [email protected] and I’ll redirect you…
However, if you are actually in contact with your brother and can provide real firsthand information, it would be so greatly appreciated. And you would probably avoid the Noobe gamut running nonsense.
Our lives are not infinitely precious. The herd is not meaningful. Great. You have inside information. It’s not like there was never a black plague. Boo hoo. I’d like to see lots of dead. If I’m one, so be it. I wish I could die free, but there’s people like you who demand sacrosanct status at the expense of your betters. I’d rather this be terrible than to be saved by government. Do you have any idea what power the powers that be will have over us if they can do your bidding? I’m so damn sick of Christians who really want to make all human life in this life infinitely precious through daddy government. You’re afraid. Love you some Jesus and shut up.
“Daddy Government?” “Demand sacrosanct status at the expense of your betters”? Who said anything about being saved by the government? Your an idiot. And to hear your ramblings sounds like a drunk who doesn’t even know what he is arguing about. Reality Doug? More like Dumb Ass Doug. The whole point was you and many like you saying this virus isn’t as bad as the flu when you have no clue what you are talking about. So now that I spoke up and proved your a fool, you attempt to twist this into something it never was. I remember a day when trash like you was hard to find, unfortunately that is no longer the case.
Die free? Dear God, put down the pipe and get off your pity pot. This virus is like a hemorrhagic fever of the lungs. People literally drown with fluids in their lungs. They cough up blood and crack ribs from the exertion of coughing. It is a dreadful way to die and for you to be so callous is proof that either you’re drunk or else you’re an asshole.
Or both
Ever notice the political power of vagina corresponds well with Western decline?, like a cultural coronavirus or something. Female wiles will lie dormant indefinitely, and then BAM!
I listened to this while I drove into the city. So you don’t have to watch their presentation for it to make sense. One taught English to the Chinese for 10 years the other is a Doctor who was training Chinese Docs to work with western Docs. It’s well worth your time because they both married Chinese women and have family there. It’s 4 days old but it does not matter. What they have to say applies today just as much as it did 4 days ago.
There are several labyrinthine organizations which originated in the 1947 and 1948 time frame.
WHO was one.
There was more than one Truman show, MC.
That time frame is not only covered in this book…many of the hydra heads are exposed to a level published in few books.
I am amazed (for this and other books) the author has only become a pariah, but is still breathing. He must be a fearless man.
This is really interesting.
They say the paper surgical masks are almost useless. I see people wearing them. I suppose better than nothing but they are made to protect a patient from the surgeons cough or sneeze.
Viruses can be awfully small.
If you want to get real here, the paper masks are to keep spittle and stuff inside. They do keep you from touching your nose and mouth but that’s about it. Full face respirators are needed and expensive. N95 masks, properly worn do help somewhat, n100 are better and staying away from people is best.
There currently exists a sizeable differential in growth rate of infection. I have been using this link as a reference source for “Asia” vs. “ex Asia”:
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
A week ago, the data stood at 43 vs 71 now for “ex Asia”…an increase of 65%.
For “Asia” proper, the data are 11,912 vs 34,874…an increase of almost 200%.
Assuming the Chinese are a bit understated on their numbers, and “ex Asia” is somewhere close to the mark, then the ratio of increase for them is quite a bit higher and the rest of us are managing “okay”.
In the next week, I am looking for an inflection point (up) in the “ex Asia” data.
Again…the economic impact to dear readers will show up before the health impacts. near as I can tell, your statistical risk of health challenge is pretty minor at the moment.
Prepping for SHTF, no matter the reason, is always an excellent idea.
And, the reason that i follow this issue so avidly is because I had planned on taking my son on a walking tour of northeastern Spain in late April. I have “skin in the game” and would love to see the issue go away but one ignores math at their peril….
Da P
article & videos from investmentwatchblog–
some show people being dragged out of apts–
another shows a cop car parked against the doors of an apt bldg so the doors will not open–
another shows people on the street being arrested 4 not allowing cops to search their phones,presumably b/c they were suspected of posting info about the illness & the crackdown–
https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/sacrificial-city-chinese-authorities-go-door-to-door-dragging-people-away-to-mandatory-quarantine-camps/
china to quarantine the city of shenzhen ,which is close to hong kong–
https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-02-07-china-to-quarantine-city-of-shenzhen-causing-mad-rush-to-hong-kong-coronavirus-pandemic.html
Moon of Alabama just posted an update. You can take it or leave it, just putting it out there. I’m agnostic on how bad it is. To me it’s the perfect way to blame the crash on nature and shield the bankers and politicians from blame and put the country on medical lockdown to boot. Anyone driving without a pass will be shot by a deputized alcoholic rent a cop.
baggs,
you picked a good time to come back,didn’t you?
i’m not generally a believer in conspiracies but if it is true that the virus was stolen from a canadian lab by a chinese spy & it seems to affect asians more than other ethnic groups,could this be a reverse sting engineered by western intel agencies?
Red.
Easily. To think we can’t produce gene specific weapons is a stretch. It’s a world filled with plots and counterplots that would make James Bond envious. I thinks it’s total war being waged. Meaning 5g, 6g, money debasement, Mercs, Media wars etc.
The problem is I can’t sort all the players. Countries and parties changing alliances quicker and more often than a runway model. Alt-media is infiltrated as well. I think it’s deliberate to an extent in order to get all the worlds populations to welcome local dictators who can promise stability being guided by the B.I.S/IMF. That won’t get you a cup of coffee but it’s what I see.
Hi Flea…
I’m right there with ya, but I’m not so agnostic about it. FWIW, my older brother put mom in a 150-bed capacity rest home about 3 yrs. back. Yesterday, the head nurse happened to be in her office, so I poked my head in the door and ‘axed’ her if the facility was rec’ing any info about this new coronavirus……she asked me, “why should we? From what she has seen it’s nothing more than another strain of flu, and I’m sure they’ll have a vaccine for it soon”
I told her, from what I’ve seen, it is very likely a bio weapon. Told her about Dr. Boyle. She replied with a cautionary warning about miss info on the net…..
annuit coeptis novus ordo seclorum <—–== Yes, it's part of a plan
Hi Ordo/Maggie.
I’m only agnostic regarding how dangerous it is but cautiously so. Just not getting enough clear casualty info.
I trust TPTB to milk it to the max if they did or didn’t use it as a cold A-Bomb. No different than a dirty A-Bomb sending radiation to the jet stream.
Think of the benefits China would get. The world markets were in for a serious correction at best. Why not get rid of the aging and sick 10 to 20% and blame it on bugs or the white devils. Since I was born they have willfully killed off that many. Why not again. Why wouldn’t we help them like last time. Mao didn’t do that in a vaccume. I’m as prepped as possible so nothing more I can do except try to make some blue pill addicts see the evil in their own government.
“Why not again. Why wouldn’t we help them like last time. Mao didn’t do that in a vacuum.”
flea,is that intuitive on your part or is there something to back it up?
Red.
There is plenty to back it up.
It just requires a willingness to send ones sacred cows to the butcher if the evidence points to their complicity. The Japs weren’t just in China for the resources. They hated Commies.
Dig into the history of the Sheks and Mao, the Dulles Brothers and Rockefellers opium rackets.
Good to see you Flea