Guest Post by Martin Armstrong
Yes, 2020 was the target year for the disease cycle to increase. It still points to the peak coming in 2022. The media has whipped this up into a full-blown panic over the novel coronavirus which is reaching a fever pitch in the US. This has resulted in even canceling conventions around the USA. Despite repeated pleas from health officials not to buy face masks which will not work, Americans can’t stop snatching up masks and respirators.
The mask boom reminds me of the toilet paper panic of 1979. Sellers have jacked up prices and exploited the demand, just as gasoline stations raised prices during hurricanes in Florida and airlines raised prices on tickets to get out. Around where I live, they HATE CNN and see it as really fake news, not because of politics, but they stage dramatic scenes during storms to scare the hell out of people.
I can confirm from independent sources that a team of 25 international and Chinese experts traveled to several different provinces within China, which included a trip to Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak. I can confirm from independent sources that the team’s findings were that the epidemic had actually peaked between the 23rd of January and the 2nd of February. Since that date, it has been actually declining. The team also estimates that the measures taken in China have averted a significant number of cases but at a tremendous cost. China’s PMI has collapsed from the 50 level t0 about 35 — a 70% decline.
Reliable sources outside of China confirm that there have been over 83,000 cases of the COVID-19 disease that has now been confirmed in more than 50 countries. Of that, about 36,000 of those people have recovered. However, there remains fast-growing outbreaks in South Korea, Italy, and Iran. There are clear indications that the media has whipped this up into a panic while officials have warned that it does have the potential to spread widely in countries with weaker public health systems, specifically in Africa and Latin America.
It is my sincere desire to provide readers of this site with the best unbiased information available, and a forum where it can be discussed openly, as our Founders intended. But it is not easy nor inexpensive to do so, especially when those who wish to prevent us from making the truth known, attack us without mercy on all fronts on a daily basis. So each time you visit the site, I would ask that you consider the value that you receive and have received from The Burning Platform and the community of which you are a vital part. I can't do it all alone, and I need your help and support to keep it alive. Please consider contributing an amount commensurate to the value that you receive from this site and community, or even by becoming a sustaining supporter through periodic contributions. [Burning Platform LLC - PO Box 1520 Kulpsville, PA 19443] or Paypal
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50 to 35 is a 30% decline.
Ignoring a problem does not mean it doesn’t exist
With that attitude, you could never keep a job in the public school education system OR with the CDC.
: )
Martin…I can confirm that the Chinese have stopped testing of all individuals and are only testing those that have symptoms . If you don’t test everyone then heck your number of cases goes down .
while this thing appears to spread very easily, it seem the mortality is targeted at the elder population and those with pre-existing conditions. young people seem able to recover.
Iran got a huge spike, Chinese/Iran oil business is probably the only common thread between those two.
here is another way to play this: if business meetings are taboo, then the teleconference business will be booming,
I think ZOOM is doing great today.
Anon says:
If it spreads so easily, then why only 80,000 cases worldwide?
China is the most populous nation on Earth, ya know?
Regardless, I put together an outline for Coronovirus® Part Deux, but this gig is fading so fast I may lose interest. Very few COVID-19 headlines today, it seems. But, then again, I suppose even global pandemics must give way for Super Tuesday.
Doug, I’ve been in contact with a couple of very interesting research scientists. They are not involved in the current flap, but have both been researching this issue for a couple of years, long before the current outbreak.
I’ve submitted Biologist on a Bike (I dropped Pedalling Pathogens through Pittsburg as being TOO MUCH! but it was hard to resist. You know I love the punny.)
Please take a peek at J.C. on a bike and check out the link at Harvard to the Big House. It is fascinating to think of the background implications.
Enough said. I’ve also asked RG to think about hosting his bike ride to educate people. I don’t know if it will go over here, but I know a great idea when I see one and am not going to ruin it here. Not this year.
@ M G,
Just checking in throughout the day. I saw the post and won’t have time to look it over until later. I also meant to circle back on your “Google Creepy Line” article and never did, but definitely enjoyed the post.
Regarding my comment above, I mainly wanted to see how people would respond to my…overtly… snide… superciliousness.
As usual, TBP never disappoints.
Just because you don’t read about it doesn’t mean it’s not there. Newspapers can manufacture a pit bull attack epidemic or a killer cop epidemic but eventually the news runs its course and there’s not more reporting on something that is no longer news.
The same thing happens here, articles drop off and despite continued interest from Janey come lately, the crowd moves on to other articles.
For those folks who are sick in China or elsewhere, the topic is very important. For those whose lives are merely inconvenienced, the topic is old news and tiresome.
Please come back when your school is shut down due to a quarantine and you are now weeping in a seat of your school bus bewailing your former insouciance.
Wonder if those are real?
DL/Uncola– please don’t “lose interest” in Coronovirus® Part Deux; lots of us would look forward to this composition of yours later this week or early next week. Even a more “quick & dirty” version based on your outline would suffice.
Here’s the latest from one of my “out there yet usually on target sites”:
It appears China has returned about 70 percent of manufacturing, starting March 2. The day before March 2, manufacturing was at about 15 percent. A sudden spike in power usage will show up when charts become current enough to show it.
Here is what has happened in China:
Areas that were not hit hard by the virus have people working at record levels. There are parts of the country that have been able to switch on more than 100 percent of any level ever seen in their history. When they finish working, they are sent straight home, and cannot “go out for coffee”. There’s no lunch break traffic or recreational traffic, it is 100 percent work traffic, they are working and returning straight home. These areas are huge industrial zones on top of it all, and they will have a disproportionate impact.
In a majority of the country, it appears about 70 percent of the workforce is available, and started working on March 2. The same rules apply – there’s no longer lunch break traffic or after work traffic, they are going to work and then straight home.
Hubei province:
Due to a lack of sampling points it was difficult to get data on Hubei province and the immediate surrounding large cities. I simply don’t have much data. However, I did get it for Wuhan and one other nearby city. Wuhan is dead. There’s no one working there, no factories started, no significant traffic, and the nearby city I did get data on is in similar condition but not quite as bad, about 20 percent of the population is working. Overall, due to the obvious excess level of work traffic in a few strong industrial zones, and much of China going back to about 70 percent of normal, I’d say they are operating at about 70 percent. At least it looks that way on the surface.
What I can’t guage:
It is clear that people went to work, but it is not clear what their attitudes were, or if anything they needed to actually produce was available to be productive with. To me, there is the appearance of desperation on the part of the government, which told people to go back to work and lifted quarantines for that purpose only, and they are hoping for the best – that it does not trip armageddon.
All except top 3 sentences from here: http://82.221.129.208/
I dunno how this fits into your numbers, but . . . Uighurs sent to factories
“The institute said it was unable to confirm all of the transfers were forced, but that a number of cases showed signs of ‘highly disturbing coercive labour practices’.”
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/more-than-80-000-uighurs-sent-to-work-in-factories-across-china-report-finds
Was in Walmart this weekend and they are starting to have some empty shelves – hand sanitizer, bleach and rubbing alcohol were all out of stock.
Natural Products is a big show that was scheduled for this weekend at Anaheim Convention Center. Hundreds of exhibitors, 86k anticipated visitors. Postponed as of today. No replacement date yet.
50 to 35 is a 30% decline, not 70%.
” I can confirm from independent sources that the team’s findings were that the epidemic had actually peaked between the 23rd of January and the 2nd of February. Since that date, it has been actually declining.”
Their findings are entirely based on Chinese data. The Chinese data is not based on reality, it is based on the requirement of producing numbers that indicate a sharp decline – because the alternative was being shot by the central government.
Using the South Korean data as a guide, the Chinese likely had about 1.1 million cases and between 13,000 to 22,000 deaths at the end of February. Their suppressive measures have almost certainly only managed to slow the rate of spread, as of mid-Feburary, not stop it.
I suspect that by the middle of March, they’ll likely have about 4.5 million cases and 56,000 to 96,000 deaths.
Cases should peak in late May, and deaths in early June, in China.