A new study out of Penn State indicates that Covid-19 may have spread much faster in the U.S. than first originally thought – and therefore is likely less deadly than originally thought.
The initial rate of cases was likely undercounted due to testing issues, asymptomatic cases and some cases with alternative symptoms, according to many epidemiologists.
The study “estimated the detection rate of symptomatic COVID-19 cases using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s influenza-like illnesses (ILI) surveillance data over a three week period in March 2020.”
Justin Silverman, assistant professor in Penn State’s College of Information Sciences and Technology and Department of Medicine, said: “We analyzed each state’s ILI cases to estimate the number that could not be attributed to influenza and were in excess of seasonal baseline levels. When you subtract these out, you’re left with what we’re calling excess ILI – cases that can’t be explained by either influenza or the typical seasonal variation of respiratory pathogens.”
The excess ILI catches matched a correlation with the spread of Covid-19 around the country, which means that ILI is capturing Covid cases and “there appears to be a much greater undiagnosed population than originally thought.”
The study estimates there may have been as many as 8.7 million cases during the last three weeks of March, versus roughly the 100,000 that were reported.
Silverman continued: “At first, I couldn’t believe our estimates were correct. But we realized that deaths across the U.S. had been doubling every three days and that our estimate of the infection rate was consistent with three-day doubling since the first observed case was reported in Washington state on Jan. 15.”
The study estimated that at least 9% of the state of New York’s population was infected by the end of March. The state found a 13.9% infection rate after antibody testing 3,000 residents.
The study emphasizes that the spread of the virus may be a far better focus than its death rate. It also concludes that the virus could have been here in the states and working to infect earlier – and quicker – than anticipated.
Silverman concluded: “Our results suggest that the overwhelming effects of COVID-19 may have less to do with the virus’ lethality and more to do with how quickly it was able to spread through communities initially. A lower fatality rate coupled with a higher prevalence of disease and rapid growth of regional epidemics provides an alternative explanation to the large number of deaths and overcrowding of hospitals we have seen in certain areas of the world.”
You can read the full study, published in Science Translational Medicine, here.
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I guess they sent 80 times more infected old people back the their nursing homes than previously recognized. But it all began by eating bats, right? In Italy. Trump is a racist.
ain’t nothing better than slurping bat soup while talking down trump–
my dad got sick & died in january while in a nursing home–maybe if i go back & get the coroner to add covid as a cause of death i could get some $–they put smoking as a contributing factor even though he quit 35 years b4 his death,why not covid?
As Barry Hussein loved to say “It is settled science”. Feel better now?
This is an interesting twist: antibodies may not remain, even though immune response from prior infection may protect. Throws all serological studies into question
And since the antibody tests are probably mostly false positives, because their tests suck, which we’ve already gone over . . . .
their conclusions are probably complete bullshit.
But get back to work anyway, and stop asking questions.
Testing
I would love to know if I have been infected and simply not had any symptoms (taking D, C, zinc, quercetin, and reserveratrol among other things), but there is no way in hell I will allow anyone from the medical profession or the government near my body to conduct any test of any kind related to this plannedemic.
But Bill Gates is not from the government.
Nor is he in the medical profession.