As Sweden’s COVID-19 Measures Hint At Herd Immunity, US Experts Rethink Lockdown Strategies

Via ZeroHedge

As Sweden continues to enjoy a falling COVID-19 infection rate, leading health experts have suggested the country’s decision not to lock down or require masks has resulted in herd immunity, according to MarketWatch.

Strict rules do not work as people seem to break them,” said Arne Elofsson, a professor of biometrics at Stockholm University, adding “Sweden is doing fine.”

Anders Tegnell, an epidemiologist involved in managing Sweden’s pandemic, thinks masks give a false sense of security: “The belief that masks can solve our problem is very dangerous.”

Prime Minister Stefan Löfven thinks voluntary social-distancing rules and not closing schools but banning gatherings of more than 50 people has been the right approach.

Now there are quite a few people who think we were right,” he told a newspaper. “The strategy that we adopted, I believe is right — to protect individuals, limit the spread of the infection.” –MarketWatch

According to the European CDC, Sweden has an infection rate of 37 cases per 100,000 people – far lower than France’s 60 per 100,000 and Spain’s 152.7 cases per 100,000 despite imposing months of lockdowns of varying degrees.

And while the New York Times (in July) and MarketWatch (in June) said that Sweden’s economy is doing ‘just as bad’ as countries which imposed lockdowns, the BBC pointed out earlier this month that Sweden’s economy ‘only’ contracted 8.6% in the April-June period vs. the previous three months, while the European Union saw a contraction of 11.9% over the same period based on newer economic data.

Meanwhile, lockdowns and the ensuing economic fallout have had a significant impact on mental health.

A new approach?

As Sweden’s model for dealing with COVID-19 appears to have survived its trial by fire, other countries are now rethinking blanket lockdowns as they weigh the economic impacts against health risks, according to the Wall Street Journal. Some of their thinking agrees with Sweden’s, while several points of disagreement exist. The Journal also notes that “Sweden’s current infection and death rates are as low as the rest of Europe’s, suggesting to some experts the country may be close to herd immunity.

In a nutshell, via The Journal:

Decide on a plan and stick with it

According to Nobel laureate economist Paul Romer, the US couldn’t decide on whether we were “going for mitigation or suppression,” who added that mitigation efforts to achieve herd immunity means accepting hundreds of thousands of additional deaths, and that a total lockdown strategy “doesn’t make sense unless you’re going to stick with it as long as it takes.”

New Zealand – an island nation which conducted draconian lockdowns for two months, were able to claim that their strict measures worked until an outbreak earlier this month resulted in another round of widespread restrictions.

“We’re harming the economy, waffling back and forth between what is right, what is wrong with a slow drift of companies closing their doors for good,” said Harvard epidemiologist, Dr. Michael Mina, who said that because the US couldn’t decide on a path forward, the result was a “complete disaster.”

Masks are good, based on results

Despite conflicting information from the World Health Organization and CDC on masks, countries and cities which quickly donned face masks did better than those who did not, such as the city of Jena, Germany vs. similar cities which did not require them, according to a study for the IZA Institute of Labor Economics, which concluded that masks resulted in a 40-60% reduction in infections.

Via the Wall Street Journal

Meanwhile Goldman Sachs estimates that a universal mask mandate vs. further lockdowns could salvage 5% of GDP.

Ramp up testing

According to Paul Romer, the economist, ramping up testing could enable a safe reopening before a vaccine is developed, and could restore $1,000 in economic activity for every $10 spent on tests.

Harvard’s Dr. Mina suggested that rapid, though less accurate paper-strip tests that can detect the virus within minutes could be used every other day to help suppress the disease.

Conduct a “smart” reopening

Dr. Mina and his team have designed a method of reopening based on frequency of contacts and vulnerability to COVID-19 based on five demographic groups and 66 economic sectors. Businesses would reopen and adhere to guidelines on social distancing, working from home, and hygiene. Schools would reopen, masks are required, and large gatherings such as religious services, indoor sports and bars would stay closed.

According to McKinsey & Co., if schools don’t reopen until next January, the lost year of education will set back low-income children with a 4% reduction in lifetime earnings.

Mina also notes that “super-spreader” events – particularly in dense, indoor gatherings with singing, shouting and talking (think: sporting events, nightclubs, bars, and church services), contribute disproportionately to infections – with bars and restaurants accounting for 16% of COVID-19 clusters in Japan (defined by five or more cases). Workplace clusters contribute to 11% of infections, while bars, restaurants and casinos were traced to 32% of infections.

We’re on the cusp of an economic catastrophe,” according to Harvard economist James Stock, who is working with Dr. Mina on models which would avoid a surge in deaths without engaging in an economically devastating lockdown. “We can avoid the worst of that catastrophe by being disciplined.”

Emphasize the reopening of the highest economic benefit, lowest risk endeavors,” he continued, adding “Economic shutdowns are a blunt and very costly tool.”

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6 Comments
TN Patriot
TN Patriot
August 25, 2020 9:47 am

The “experts” are working on models. Their models will no doubt predict disaster, as they usually do.

anarchyst
anarchyst
August 25, 2020 9:58 am

It’s obvious that the “coronavirus” epidemic is a politically-motivated sham of the highest proportion. It is totally political in nature, with “blue state” governors perpetuating business-damaging “lockdowns” in their respective states.
Both professional and political arrogance is responsible for the present state of the world economy and world population as well.
A common annual “flu virus” was promoted as a “pandemic” by the “smartest” and “best and brightest” people in positions of power, both in the USA and in the rest of the world. It’s actually a “plandemic” foisted on the American public to bring down the Trump administration. It will fail…
These “best and brightest” convinced political “leaders” to impose mandatory business closures, “lockdowns” and “quarantines” on healthy populations, which is contrary to every common sense and scientific principle.
These “business closures” were not imposed “across the board”, but were picked by political hacks as “winners and losers”. Liquor stores, marijuana dispensaries, lottery retailers, and certain “big box” home improvement and sporting goods stores were permitted to remain in operation, while churches and just about all small businesses were forced to close.
In some states, the political arrogance was so great, plant nurseries, seed distributors, and other businesses were deemed “non-essential” and forced to close. Even “big box” stores were prohibited from selling lawn and garden supplies. Many restaurants were also put out of business by these clearly unconstitutional edicts.
Imposing “quarantines” and “lockdowns” on healthy people does nothing to insure public health, and in fact delays necessary herd immunity.
Public health is further damaged by business closures, especially small businesses whose owners rely on continuing business as a means of making a living, both for themselves and their employees.
A major problem is that these “best and brightest” and political “leaders” are so arrogant that they refuse to admit that “they screwed up, big time”. Instead, they “double down” and inflict further pain on the public by refusing to insist that “they were wrong”. None of them will pay personally for their arrogance, stupidity, and just outright dishonesty and criminality.
All one has to do is look at the “coronavirus hospitals” that were created to handle the “overflow” of coronavirus patients which never materialized. These “hospitals” were a waste of taxpayer dollars and did absolutely nothing to promote public health.
At the same time, local hospitals were required to cease admissions, even for those of an emergency nature. Although not specifically stated, people with real health problems were covertly “encouraged” to avoid hospitals at all costs because of the phony “coronavirus” claims.
On another note, coronavirus, as is with any annual flu virus IS potentially dangerous to those who are “medically compromised”, such as elderly residents in nursing homes and extended care facilities.
Guess what?
Blue state governors purposely placed coronavirus positive patients in nursing homes, endangering the lives of present nursing home residents who were already in a compromised medical state.
Not only is that medically unethical but does constitute wanton criminal behavior-murder.
Why were nursing homes used as “dumping grounds” for coronavirus patients instead of the specially-built “coronavirus hospitals” which remained unused?
Health professionals are also responsible for the current state of affairs, also refusing to admit that “they screwed up, big time” as well, and continue to insist that this annual flue is a “pandemic”.
Then we have the “heavy hitters” with money, such as Bill Gates and Stephen Fauci who claim that they have “solutions” to our (artificially contrived) health problems. Gates is so arrogant the he feels that he can get away with genocide by using mandatory vaccinations to “cull” the world population.
Gates “vaccination” programs in third-world countries failed to adhere to good medical practices, and the Nuremberg principle that “informed consent” must reign supreme in the administration of all medical procedures.
Gates’ “vaccination” programs introduced polio into children in India for which he and his program were banned from the country. Gates’ African “vaccination” programs surreptitiously introduced sterilization and birth-control compounds as part of their vaccination program without gaining “informed consent” from the recipients.
According to these moneyed types and even so-called “health care” officials, we are to be branded, tagged, and treated like cattle with no means to make informed choices about our health or health care decisions.
The COVID vaccines being introduced are “game changers”. No longer are they weakened viruses designed to provoke a immunological response, but are DNA-altering substances that will require frequent “boosters” just to stay alive. DON’T TAKE THE VACCINES…especially if Bill Gates has anything to do with them. Besides, when did Bill Gates become a doctor?
Wearing masks and “social distancing” are no different than the “security theater” that we experience at airports with the TSA.
It’s “medical tyranny” at its best and scientific dishonesty at its worst.
There are no valid reasons for “mask-wearing” or “social distancing” for healthy people. In fact, in the coming months, look for an increase in respiratory illnesses affecting mask-wearers, especially those who are forced to wear masks for extended periods of time. In hospital settings, masks are supposed to be worn for only 10 minutes at a time before they are replaced.
“Lockdowns”, “business closures”, and “quarantining” of healthy people is being used for “control” and nothing more. The “powers that be” are desirous to see “how far they can go” to get the world population to accede to their demands.
Fortunately, there are a lot more of us than there are of them. We (still) have the power of the internet to bypass the “filters” that they put in place to keep us from seeing their “real” motives.

Iconoclast421
Iconoclast421
  anarchyst
August 25, 2020 12:55 pm

the mind virus responsible for turning this many people into such pathetic sheep is actually more contangious than covid

Iska Waran
Iska Waran
August 25, 2020 11:03 am

Germany theoretically suppressed the virus by strict distancing, etc. This ain’t Germany. If a German were at an intersection waiting for the “walk” sign to light up and it never lit up, he’d stand there forever.

RiNS
RiNS
August 25, 2020 11:07 am
MadMaskedCovidian
MadMaskedCovidian
August 26, 2020 6:04 am

This whole thing was a scam from the get go. It is the NWO simply angling for control of world affairs.