Back at the start of 2016, when nobody else would even consider such an outcome, DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeff Gundlach shocked the economic, financial and political establishments when during the January Barron’s roundtable of that year, he predicted that Donald Trump would become the next US president. He was right.
Fast forward to today when one week before the elections, and in an environment when most polls predict that Biden will crush Trump and where Nate Silver gives Trump just as 13% chance of defeating Trump, Jeffrey Gundlach is predicting another victory for President Donald Trump.
As Financial Advisor magazine reported, during a Tuesday webcast as part of Schwab’s 2020 IMPACT conference, Gundlach said that despite polls, analysis and betting odds that suggest otherwise, Trump is likely to outpace former Democratic vice president Joe Biden in the contest.
“The polls right now say he isn’t going to win, but they said that four years ago,” said Gundlach referring to the following chart.
“Mind you, my conviction is way lower than it was four years ago. But back in [that period], when Trump was little more than an asterisk in the betting odds, I predicted he was going to win. This one is much more murky, but in my eyes, it favors a Trump win.”
Addressing the elephant in the room, Gundlach said that public political polls are often “designed to create impressions” rather than illustrate reality, said Gundlach, and shouldn’t be trusted (for more on this read our post from 2016 “New Podesta Email Exposes Playbook For Rigging Polls Through “Oversamples“). He also argued that many Trump voters are unwilling to engage with pollsters and the media because they fear retribution for their political beliefs, also known as the “shy voter” phenomenon according to which “Over 10% Of Trump Voters Won’t Admit Preferences To Pollsters.” Biden also faces an enthusiasm problem, said Gundlach.
Gundlach then went on to crush hopes of a Blue Wave, arguing that Republicans will likely keep the Senate regardless of who wins – mainly because of uncertainty around Biden. “Some people will hedge their bets and split their vote towards retaining the Republican Senate because they view Biden as risky,” said Gundlach, who noted that Trump is often portrayed as riskier than Biden. And yet, in the four years of his presidency, there have been no international conflicts, despite some outrageous and bellicose language.
“You might dislike Trump or some of his policies, but risk is not what you’re getting with him, particularly compared to turning the presidency over to another party, and particularly when that party’s candidate isn’t saying what some of his policy positions are.”
If Gundlach is wrong, and Biden wins the election and eventually rolls back or eliminates the corporate tax reduction from 2017’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, U.S. equity valuations would increase sharply, said the DoubleLine CEO, but he added that the reduction in after-tax earnings would mean that stock prices would not appreciate. Interest rates, volatility and inflation would also rise, said Gundlach.
“Markets don’t like certainty, and with Trump, I think you have more certainty,” said Gundlach. “With Biden, you have peak uncertainty because there’s been very little information given to the public.”
Gundlach clarified that he doesn’t think Biden is a socialist, but that pressured by the Democratic Party’s base, his administration would pursue higher taxation and “socialist policies,” but it’s hard to be sure because Biden has changed many of his positions over his long political career.
The opposite is true of Biden’s running mate, California Senator Kamala Harris, who Gundlach called “one of the most left-leaning people in all of the Senate” who is not shy about sharing her opinions.
Gundlach then said that Americans should consider the all too real possibility that a Biden victory means that at some point within the next four years, Harris will ascend to the presidency.
“We have to discount the probability of outright socialist policies with outrageous amount of deficit spending,” said Gundlach. “That would pose a big problem for stock and bond markets.”
Yet no matter who the winners is on Nov 3, Gundach said that 2020 is just another in a series of election cycles that have increased in their tumult and oddity.
At this point Gundlach went “full Zero Hedge“, and predicted that by 2027, economic inequality, strained by fiscal and monetary policy, would come to the point of some sort of revolution, which would put the 2024 presidential election directly in the path of massive social, economic and political change. Which, incidentally, is more or less everything that we have been saying for the past 12 years.
“When I said that I think Trump is going to win in 2016, I also said that if you think 2016 is weird, just wait for 2020,” said Gundlach.
“Well, if you think 2020 is weird, just wait until 2024. You ain’t seen nothing yet.”
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There will be no revolt. Clown world has already won.
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Nothing changes……until it does. When that happens all bets are off the table and everything goes. Revolutions are normally like spontaneous combustion. In times like these Murphy’s Law rules…
“Anything that can go wrong will”, and it corollary “At the worst possible time.”
Just Sayin’
She seems nice,pardon while I do more shopping!
Clown world seems to have won – in democrat run shitholes, yes.
All I have to say is that it took four months to find this? I could have done this in .5 hours!
Flash-Very aptly named for a so called police commissioner. Let’s appoint another clueless, female libtard of color to straighten out the mess, what harm could it possibly do? When I watched Idiocracy, I had no idea it was a documentary.
While I would be glad to avoid a violent revolution,but, if needed,well,guess we then are given no choice.
6 days till election,so,without further ado your daily (and yes I know)annoying reminder:Food/fuel/clothing/tools ect. at moment reasonably priced and available,keep shopping!
James – it has been said before and by a much wiser man, “if there be trouble let it be in my time…”. I have very young great granddaughters and I would like to think they will be able to experience freedom in their lifetime.
Then it is up to the citizens to fight for the future of our country and it’s children.
I would love for the fight to be non violent,but,will not bet mine or anybodies life that it won’t be violent,prepare for the worst/hope for the best.
I am praying for the best. That is our best hope.
I think 2027 is being too Conservative. I would say much, much sooner. Sadly, those who support Trump, will revel in his victory, and will simply lay down and do nothing for 4 more years rather than calling for peaceful separation and dissolution of the federal government. You know that democrats will be clamoring for secession of some of the states. Its time to get on board and support their efforts.
Conservatives/just freedom minded folks have also been clamoring for a peaceful separation,look at parts of Cali./Oregon trying to create the state of Jefferson.
it’s all so jewish….
Johnny- That’s a very astute observation. It’s kind of like inviting a ravenous horde of termites into your home and then act shocked when your house caves in. We did it to ourselves.
2027? Look at how much this have deteriorated already this year. Did anyone think we would see widescale looting and rioting in our major cities, 1000 people in Philadelphia just ransacking the city?
Whoever wins, things are going off the rails in the next couple of years.
Shit’s not looking good – that’s for sure. I don’t expect Trump to fix it. I mostly just hate his opponents even more – whether it’s the “intelligence community”, the FBI, Hollywood, academia, the tech companies, big business and – maybe most of all – the kind of white liberals in my neighborhood who elect the likes of Ilhan Omar and put up yard signs of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Ginsburg does make a good Halloween decoration, though, like the scariest witch around.
2022 is my guess. I can see 2 avenues to get there.
1. Orange man wins 2020 & R’s hold the Senate. 2022 R’s lose the Senate, D’s remove Orange Man, and It’s on.
2. Grandpa Bad Finger wins 2020 & R’s hold the Senate. 2022 R’s lose the Senate, Harris proceeds to pack the court, and It’s On.
.
As Hope@ZeroKelvin used to say; “Fuck fuck fuckity fuck!”
I gotta wait another 4 -7 years for Da Revolution???? C’mon, man! I ain’t getting any younger here. This is bullshit, man. In 7 years I might not even be able to kick BL’s ass anymore.
Stucky – You are behind enemy lines there in Joisey, so you may not want it to come too soon.
Myself and many others have been telling Stucky and my father in law to get the hell out NJ for years. Oh well, can’t win.
Why do you flip flop on issues so much? Just trolling for kicks?