Let’s Talk Delta

Guest Post by Karl Denninger

I’ll try to make it simple.

Before the first jab went into the first arm and could do anything Covid-19 had peaked in the United States in most areas.  Remember that the rule is “two weeks from first shot to second, then two weeks to have protection.”

Look here and tell me where the peak was.

The CDC, Trump and then Biden all took credit for something that the vaccines did not do.

What did it?

Covid originally had an R0 of about 3.  That means you need 1 – (1/3) or about 66% of the people to be immune by either infection of vaccination before the case rate would fall.

The CDC claimed we had about 33 million infections and somewhere between 4 and 11 not diagnosed for each one that was.  Well, it wasn’t 11 because that’s more people than exist in the US.  But if it’s six, more or less up the middle, then we were for all intents and purposes at herd immunity.

Rah-rah-rah-rah vaccines are the reason we’re saved.

Nice try; the evidence is that the vaccines don’t work well at all.  They might work to some degree to prevent infection and transmission but not very well.  In fact on the evidence coming out of Israel it appears that they’re about 20% effective which is damn close to worthless.

What proved this?  Delta.

Again, if you believe the CDC, then Delta has an R0 of somewhere between 5-9.  Let’s take the middle; 7.  1 – 1/7 = 85% must be immune.  Again, it doesn’t matter how their immune, just that they are.

The CDC claims in a new MMWR that the shots are “very” effective as a booster if you previously had Covid.  I disagree, looking at their alleged “study.”  But frankly, I don’t care what their MMWR says because the data says its wrong.

See, 70% of Americans have had at least one shot and half are fully vaccinated, that is, allegedly protected.  Now let’s look at the data again.

The CDC stupidly did not segregate and hive off those who were previously infected; we’ll thus, given their advocacy, assume that the previously-infected, which are about 60% of the population, are equally divided into those who got the stabs.

Well, if that’s true then 60 + 25 = 85% — which is herd immunity for Delta with an R0 of 7!

Clearly, however, it isn’t given the infection rate.

There is only one logical conclusion: The jabs do not work to stop either infection or transmission.  If you can’t stop infection and transmission you also can’t stop people from getting sick.

So when does this end?

When enough people get naturally infected that we have actual herd immunity.

Which is what I said back in March of 2020.

What does this mean for you?

Well, it makes for a problem right now, because we know that during the four weeks between the first jab and immunity building you’re more likely to get infected.  We’ve seen this repeatedly all over the world.  Into the maw of a spike getting vaccinated is dangerous because it temporarily suppresses immune response.  It probably doesn’t increase the risk of bad outcomes but it definitely increases the risk of infection itself.

The very difficult question for people now is whether that risk is worth the nebulous claims of “preventing severe disease and death.”  UK’s data, along with Israel’s, strongly suggests that might be a bad bet.  The majority of their admissions into the hospitals are now vaccinated.  So much for “prevents severe disease” eh?  That will be coming here, and in parts of the country it already is, irrespective of what crazy Rochelle is saying.  I know people on the front line — EMTs and similar — and in many areas, but not all, the transports are already majority fully vaccinated.

Within weeks it’ll be everywhere in the United States and Rochelle’s last pillar of lies will collapse on her.

In addition we know nothing other than N95 masks work.  We’ve known this for decades.  Worse, they can’t protect others because when you exhale the seal is broken.  They can protect you, but that means a mandate is stupid — if you want or need protection then wear one and leave everyone else alone.  Oh, and learn how to wear one properly too, which takes some effort and will never happen among children.

But don’t believe for a second you will escape anyway.  You probably won’t.  Deer in several states have been surveyed and found to have antibodies.  Not a few of them either; 40% on average.  How did that happen given that deer are (1) always outside and (2) do not socialize with humans.  It happened because the virus is an aerosol which means you can’t evade it just like they didn’t.  Sorry.  It also means Covid will never be eradicated as it circulates in multiple animals.

BTW the data out of the UK continues to show Delta is less dangerous.  A lot less-dangerous.  It’s about one fifth as likely to kill you overall, and about half as likely if you’re over 50.  It is also less-likely to send you to the hospital.  This is the expected progression of a respiratory pandemic virus.  While it appears on that data the vaccines confer some personal protection it is by no means perfect and nowhere near the 95%+ claimed, especially in people over 50.

Further there is no evidence Delta is more-transmissible; its secondary attack rate in household and non-household settings is nearly identical to Alpha.

This STRONGLY implies the CDC is lying about Delta’s R0 and the real problem driving the spike is that the jabs not only do not work against Delta they destroy the victim’s immune response in some percentage of those previously infected.

Not only that we now have proof from media reports that the CDC and drug companies are lying about the effectiveness of the jabs.  They claim 95%+ effective against symptomatic disease.  Not “you’re dead”, symptoms.

Well then how do 11 of 14 fully vaccinated people who go to a party get Covid?  The odds of that being “random chance” are .05 ^ 11 or about five in a quadrillion.  That’s statistically impossible; that the people of this nation cannot take 30 seconds with a calculator, realize she’s full of crap and demand this crap stop right now makes all of the damage you have or will take in the coming months your fault.

Reminder: Pfizer said the vaccine was 97% effective in preventing symptomatic disease.  Not “serious” disease, not death, SYMPTOMS.  That’s flat-out bull****, they promulgated a bald lie and every one of their employees and facilities should be razed for it.  They know ******ned well how to use a calculator.

Given that 11 of 14 figure, which is fact, the effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing symptomatic disease, with a one in two (50%) chance you’d get that outcome, is SIX PERCENT.

“Warp Speed” is a 100% failure and the jabs are worthless.

If threatened with termination for not taking the jab let them fire you and sue.  Forcing people to do something that on the math does not work — provably so simply on media-reported failure rates and similar probability calculations — is either recognized by the courts on an immediately injunction basis as wrong and turned back or the only remaining choice we have as a people is to accept that we are not even entitled to reasonable health care as would be due a slave or we sack the whole of government and all of the corporations and other entities that are pushing what they know is a lie and start over.

We’re all going to get this virus or we’ve already had it folks.  We must shift to prophylaxis for high-risk people, encourage people to make sure they’re not Vitamin D deficient which is strongly associated with severe and fatal outcomes, strongly encourage people to get rid of their extra 100lbs, or at least as much of it as they can in the time they have left before they get infected and hit any suspected infection immediately with repurposed drugs.  Do not wait until you’re really sick; that’s dumb.  Viruses have to be hit early and hard or you are severely handicapping your odds of success.  Pick your protocol for this; I like FLCCC’s but your mileage may vary.  Just realize that “go home, eat chicken soup and call us if you’re choking” is doing nothing, and if that’s what you’re going to do then you’re taking far more risk, perhaps 10x as much, as you need to.

How about the risk of another variant showing up that has an even higher (or an actual higher, when you get down to it) R0?

It could happen.

So what if it does?

Seriously — so what?  Let’s assume we get one with an R0 of 9 instead of 7.  That’s getting into the realm of being close to measles, by the way, which is believed to be around 11-15.

Well, that would be 89% required for immunity and right now it’s 85%.

Simply put there’s not enough fuel left for another big spike, in other words – just like there isn’t this time and this spike will peter out before it gets to where we were in January.

This is math, folks, and there’s nothing the CDC can do about it.

Now do you see why I put forward scenarios over a year ago where we would encourage young people to go ahead, do their thing, and get it?  They’d gain immunity — whether perfect or not, they’d be resistant — and they’d provide a firebreak for everyone else with nearly zero of them paying for it with either severe disease or death.  Compared with the other things that kill kids Covid-19 isn’t even on the radar.

What we must insist, however, is that the CDC and others stop lying; the jabs either never did work very well at all or Delta evaded them.  At present it doesn’t matter which happened; what matters is that “Warp Speed” did not do the testing to find out, on purpose, whether this was likely and thus here we are.

Thank both Trump and Biden for that.  They should both pay for it along with Fauci and every single person at the FDA, CDC, NIH and all of their families.

And, while you’re at it, remember that none of them, nor Fauci, made clear that you needed to lose that weight despite our knowing very early on that being fat was a wildly bad thing when it comes to Covid-19.  You had a year and a half and anyone can lose 60-80lbs in that amount of time without much difficulty at all; that’s a roughly 500 calorie/day deficit, whether by additional exercise (e.g. 1 mile of walking is 100 calories) or less food intake (e.g. a Snickers bar is 215 calories.)

That’s really your personal responsibility but you could consider hanging that around their neck as well.

Math is never wrong.

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