Guest Post by Paul Craig Roberts
The Kremlin intended Russia’s intervention in Ukraine to be limited to Donbass. The purpose was to drive out the Ukrainian and neo-Nazi military forces that were occupying parts of the two independent republics and shelling the residents. Had Russia intervened eight years previously, the intervention could have been limited and quickly concluded. But the Kremlin, afflicted with hesitancy and false hopes for the Minsk Agreement, waited until Washington had raised, armed and trained a Ukrainian army.
What the Kremlin needed was a quickly concluded operation that did not give the West time to get involved in the interest of a wider war in order to conduct more propaganda against Russia and in hope of draining Russia of manpower and military resources.
Widening of the war has occurred with NATO countries providing Ukraine with weapons, training, and now plans for a new one million man army equipped with the latest Western weapons to retake Donbass and Crimea.
The question before us is whether the Kremlin will again give way to hesitation, holding on to false hopes of negotiations, until Russia again creates a more difficult task for herself by waiting. Or has the Kremlin finally learned that hesitation does not pay?
We might find out in a few days when the Russian Federal Assembly convenes. If realism penetrates Russian false hopes of peace and mutual security, the prospect of knocking out Ukraine before Russia is confronted with a missile-launching-million-man-army will receive attention.
If Russia decides that the West has left her with no alternative to Ukraine’s conquest, the so far spared Ukrainian infrastructure, communication systems, and government offices will be destroyed. So will any NATO forces sent to intervene and possibly also the infrastructure and government offices of the intervening countries.
As I have stressed for years, it is Russia’s hesitancy in the face of provocations that has led to this dangerous situation. Washington interprets the Kremlin’s toleration of insults and provocations as fear of conflict and regards Russia’s red lines as bluster. The drawn-out conflict in Donbass has made the Russian military look to the West as much less effective than it is, which has encouraged the latest provocation of plans for a million man army and missiles capable of attacking Russian territory.
I do not see how the Kremlin can wait for this development before acting, but costly hesitancy so far has been the Kremlin’s practice.
As the Kremlin follows legalisms long abandoned in the West, little doubt Russia would declare war prior to attacking, thus further disadvantaging its military by giving up the element of surprise.
Putin has said that the longer the conflict persists before it is resolved on Russia’s terms, the more stringent Russia’s terms will be. I will add to this that the longer the conflict persists before Russia uses sufficient force to terminate it, the greater the required force will be. If Russia awaits a million man army with long range missiles, the more likely a direct transition to nuclear weapons will be the case.
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Russia had to prepare for war. Yes they made some questionable initial moves but otherwise a smashing success. The fruit of those preparations are showing on the battlefield.
This is at first glance a strike against an immediate threat with the US/NATO at their back door.
The long look is a military confrontation against US and what is left of NATO, decimated by sanctions against itself.
Russia has the production capacity to fight the long war. US is just about out of munitions and is lagging technologically. What no hypersonic missiles yet? There is no manufacturing left in the US. China has it. Bill Clinton offshored manufacturing with help from Republicans.
Russia has a Christian nationalist at the helm, US has a Pedo-Globalist leading to collapse and defeat. The ultimate result is predictable.
Boom! Here we go AGAIN!! Good old PCR with his absolute bullshit “woulda, coulda, shoulda” so-called analysis.
Most worthless waste-of-time Russia pundit on the internet!
If only PCR was as smart as Stucky. LOL
Box trucks of ukie soldiers – oh wait, that was Russia
His first sentence is completely wrong…Russia intended to destroy the UKR army and replace the government from the beginning, which involved the whole Ukraine unless it surrendered…Territorial aims may have been limited to the Russian speaking Donbas which had already indicated it wanted to rejoin Russia…
I like PCR, but when you start off with an assumption like that, it is really not even worth reading the rest.
Hey Paul! They’ve refilled the punch bowl in the Lobby. Go back in and kabbitz with the other hangers on and bring Pat with you.
You had one brilliant last hurrah with Camp of the Saints where yu described in detail the muddling of the white gene pool by the browns. Should have stopped there.
Where is the million man army going to come from? Ukraine? Very doubtful with the losses they have suffered. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization Nations? Hardly. Not one of the alliance’s countries has the strength to take on Russia. The American lead organization is riven with wokism, defeatism, and division (vaccine mandates just to name one issue). Russia is winning this conflict and there is little their opponents can do to stop them.
Not from the US….
Results of the sanctions. Lol
Inversion is the sign of evil. Russia is not failing in Ukrane, ask anyone who withstood a Russian artillery barrage.
Perhaps Russia has been watching and waiting and preparing for years. If you listen to Vlad, this is the beginning of the end of the western “rules based order.” He does seem serious. You might notice that before the start of the SMO the US was as divided as it was in 1860, we have a senile and corrupt president and congressional leaders, the military is rendering itself useless with rainbows and battery powered tanks and ships that crash into s**t, the property market was just turning, stocks have been at all time record highs, the Fed has run out of ammunition vis a vis the low interest rate-print money with no ill effects, and the economic shock of both the lock down (note I don’t say the pandemic,) and the green goddess we all must be sacrificed to would make this a good time to try something.
Now let’s face facts, there is NO million man army. Nor will there ever be. NATO is talking about a 300,000 man quick reaction force. They have neither the men or the equipment to do this in the near future, much less find a million fools willing to go up against the Russians. Did you know that Ukrane had Europe’s biggest and most comprehensively trained army? Completely modernized by NATO to better integrate into NATO. They are gone. The Ukrainians are drafting 60 year old men and women. They are not given any adequate training or equipment (heck, bullets won’t help against artillery strikes anyway) and sent to be ground up with the concrete rubble.
Even worse, we have no capability to wage a war. If we cannot prevail quickly through air power, (and Russian anti aircraft misses are the best in the world) where will the missles and artillery shells come from to continue fighting. How many tanks a week can our factory increase production to in the next month? Where will we get the titanium? Heck Biden has drained the strategic petroleum reserve,our military may not have the gas to get anywhere. Did you know that the US recently finished using the stocks of .50 cal ammunition manufactured during WWII? How many other items in our arsenal are similarly ancient? Well the Stinger is so old the factory is long gone, the parts are obsolete and will need a new design, and contract. The Javilins come ready for use with dead batteries.
Now do you understand why the NY Times ran a nuclear fallout guide? Note that US is the only country to legally allow nuclear first strike and invented tactical nukes. Russia and China both outlaw and condem first strikes. So because of this Russia must walk a delicate path. While capable trouncing NATO, they cannot. The troops fighting in Ukraine are from the south, central and Eastern divisions and are rotating through to get experience and training. These are not the top line troops who are all between Moscow and NATO.
The nuclear issue is why Russia is not beating the west vigorously, this war cannot be won on the battlefield. It must be won on the economic front, the propaganda front, and in the hearts and minds of the world populace.
So just suppose instead of fighting, Russia stops supplying the west with goods? Like fossils fuels, or strategic metals and gasses. Germany is the economic engine that supports Europe. Some countries break even in the EU, but Germany pays for the PIGS. Germany gets it petroleum, it’s NatGas and coal primarily from . . . Russia! In the short term, less than ten years, there is NO changing this. Heck Europe has sworn t÷o go carbon free in just about 10 years. Any kind of energy infrastructure change is going to have a 50 year loan. Who would be foolish enough to make that loan?
So without a shot fired, Russia can turn off the NatGas, the petroleum, and the coal powering Europe. If timed right, think a huge wave of hungry African migrants, this would cause chaos, both social and economic. With our economy tetering (think banks collapsing because they loaned money to business that collapsed) the very interconnectedness of the globalist banking and economic system will crash our banks and economy.
But that’s OK! We have MOAR military, we own the global currency and control the world’s banking. We can just print it. Or can we? Once we go broke what difference is there between this large island and the small one occupied by Sri Lanka?
Anyway, as Michael Yon says, “If you are constantly surprised by events in the world, you need better sources of information or a change in your paradigm.” Make your plans accordingly.
Most excellent post.
You will love the link below. It’s from an outfit called rusi.org … which is NOT a Russian site …. rather, it is a British think tank, and they are rabidly anti-Russian.
Yet, their article is titled “Can the West still provide the arsenal of democracy?”
Short answer? NO!! Key points;
— the West no longer has the industrial capacity to fight a large-scale war.
— The Russians have fired between 1,100 and 2,100 missiles. The US currently purchases 110 PRISM, 500 JASSM and 60 Tomahawk cruise missiles annually, meaning that in three months of combat, Russia has burned through four times the US annual missile production.
— bottom line; US annual artillery production would at best only last for 10 days to two weeks of combat in Ukraine.
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https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
This guy should have his own blog, excellent article.
Solid A+ post Trumeter! Extra Credit for the Yon comment!
You sound like Andrei Martyanov. http://www.smoothiex12.blogspot.com
Great points!
Europeans are starting to fold already. They will stop supporting the Ukraine by mid winter . By then their industry will be crawling and their homes will be cold. That only leaves Boris Johnson.Oh no wait!
THE NEW UKRAINIAN UNICORN–THE MILLION MAN ARMY
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