Prince Hal – MIA Workers Found – Twitter Files – MP on GB News – Self-Sufficiency – Decentralisation – Gas Price – Hubris 101- Warming? – Letter from Great Britain – [01-07-23]

Realising 2023 as a potential pivot in cycles, which entered a new phase in the 2020-2021 time frame, is key to envisioning the coming years.

PROTECT & SURVIVE

STOP PRESS – ENTERTAINMENT EXTRA: Blockbuster play titled ‘King Charles III Part 1’ launched this week as revelations from the hotspur, Prince Hal, kept the audience speechless about where 25 Afghans went and other bombshell plots.

However, satire aside, this is a very serious, unwarranted admission which any veteran will confirm. Harry writes: “When I found myself plunged in the heat and confusion of combat I didn’t think of those 25 as people.  They were chess pieces removed from the board, bad people eliminated before they could kill good people,”

The reference to ‘chess pieces’ rather gives a pointer to the nature of British warfare training for the officer class and indeed exposes the attitude of the ‘elites’ in general towards their fellow man.  Look out below!

THOUGHT FOR THE WEEK:  Is this where the missing workers are? At what age did you leave home and set out on your new life?  I left home at 20 to work at HMG War Office in 1964. These days the ONS said 3.6 million people aged 20 to 34 were living at home with their parents in Britain – 28% of the entire age group and it is increasing. There are many reasons for this trend; finance might be one but the main reasons are due to high student debt, housing and living costs.

In fact, Gen Z has become so numerous that the toy industry has created a special term for them.  They are called ‘kidults’, and these days they are spending lots of money on toys and could be keeping the toy industry afloat!  These kidults are responsible for 25% spent each year on games & toys at £3.5 Billion

Back in the day it was most unusual for an able-bodied person to be doing nothing if capable of working.  But now there are millions of young people who have simply dropped out of the labour force; many are living with their parents, chilling out or trading on their own account (tax free of course – aka the electronic ‘black market’).

BREAKING NEWS:  THE TWITTER SAGA is becoming clearer, it seems that the ‘conspiracy theories’ are turning out to be true, Musk made the comments during an interview on the “All-In” podcast, where he also discussed the so-called “Twitter files” that were initially released earlier this month via independent journalists Matt Taibbi and Bari Weiss.

“To be totally frank, almost every conspiracy theory that people had about Twitter turned out to be true,” Musk said. “Is there a conspiracy theory about Twitter that didn’t turn out to be true? So far, they’ve all turned out to be true. If not more true than people thought.”  While speaking of the Twitter files, the Tesla CEO was asked if there is “a part of the files that really shocked you,” to which he responded that the “FBI stuff is pretty intense.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/elon-musk-says-almost-every-conspiracy-theory-that-people-had-about-twitter-turned-out-to-be-true_4945425.html

AND TALKING ABOUT ‘conspiracy theories’ coming true – this one is the Biggy.  Last week I noted Mr Bridgen MP telling his fellow members about the dangers of the Vaxx especially the damaged to hearts and other organs.  I am pleased that GB News took up the call and interviewed a consultant cardiologist for his professional opinion from his own experiences on the front line.  Start at the 23 min mark -13 mins of the unvarnished truth:

EMERGENT DECENTRALISATION will involve a local, self-sufficient economy which is something I have been promoting for many years.  I believe that this is the only option to counter the impending global governance and Dr Malone & friends also agree:

“Both Dr. Malone and I believe that future will be rooted in decentralization, a topology that is far more resilient and smarter than centralized, government-mandated systems of organization. All centralized systems eventually become run by incompetent, arrogant idiots, causing them to fail in spectacular fashion.

The fall will necessitate the people turning to local, decentralized solutions for food, money, medicine, self-defense, communications, information-sharing, resource allocation and more. That day is coming, and if you hope to survive it, you need to both learn what it’s going to look like and how to navigate it without losing everything.”  https://www.naturalnews.com/2022-12-22-dr-robert-malone-and-mike-adams-talk-rise-and-fall-of-civilizations.html

Talk is cheap but how does a local economy work?  First off, the technocrats launched their ‘gene-edited’ GMO foods during the 1990s but failed to convince consumers. Colin Todhunter writes about this regularly: “However, there is sufficient research indicating that the technology is error prone, the effects of editing are not controllable and there is no simple pathway between gene and trait. Gene editing has unexpected outcomes and risks, and unintended mutations and off-target effects occur.”

Ensuring traditional agriculture to prevail, especially in local areas with short supply lines and a local currency is the only alternative I can see to the steamroller of the GloboCap vision of everyone crammed into ‘smart cities’.   The farmers’ protests in India led to the repeal of corporate-backed legislation that would have accelerated these technocratic trends and, as Vandana Shiva notes, more than 150 community seed banks have been established in the country.

She goes on to say: “we have trained more than one million farmers who now practice organic agriculture based on biodiversity and without the use of synthetic chemicals. The shift from globalisation driven by multinational corporations to a progressive localisation of our economies has become an ecological and social imperative, essential for food sovereignty.  Food sovereignty means feeding ourselves real, genuine, biodiverse food and freeing ourselves from the false promises of artificial food.”

The age-old knowledge of farming and value systems promote long-term sustainability through restraint in what is taken from nature. These societies also emphasise equality and sharing rather than hierarchy and competition.

These principles must guide our future actions regardless of where we live on the planet because what’s the alternative?  Will it be a centralised global system driven by narcissism, domination, ego, anthropocentrism, speciesism and plunder?  A system that uses up natural resources much faster than they can ever be regenerated cannot be sustainable.

Colin Todhunter specialises in development, food and agriculture and is a Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalisation in Montreal. You can read his ‘mini e-book’, Food, Dependency and Dispossession: Cultivating Resistance, here. (Check out Chapter 3).

THE FUTURE MUST BE DECENTRALISATION which I have promoted for more than 30 years because my career involved complex adaptive systems, which of course are those associated with weather and climate dynamics as well as the global financial system. CHS follows a similar line of thought and here is a précis of his recent projections for 2023:

“The implicit assumption in the mainstream view is that historical cycles are figments of fevered imaginations. The flow of human history is entirely contingent and follows no pattern or cycle. The much smaller “outlier” camp sees the potential for a disruptive transformation this year.  Those of us who conclude cycles are based on the ebb-and-flow dynamics of credit, energy and human nature and are therefore not just real but consequential despite their predictive imprecision.  Realising 2023 as a potential pivot in cycles, which entered a new phase in the 2020-2021 time frame, is key to envisioning the coming years.

This cyclical shift isn’t a result of Covid or the response to Covid. It’s the result of diminishing returns and the exhaustion of the dynamics which powered the previous era: hyper-financialisation, hyper-globalisation and low-cost, abundant energy which we have accessed for the last 200 years and the continual trend towards mega-cities, BigGov, and Big Everything implying centralisation of control.

In terms of human nature, confidence and complacency rise and fall, euphoric greed and panicky fear ebb and flow and as Peter Turchin has demonstrated, order and disorder take turns as reasons to cooperate decay into reasons not to cooperate.  As David Hackett Fischer demonstrated in: The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History, systemic increases in price – what we call inflation – sow the seeds of economic, social and political disunity, conflict and collapse.

In his book The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization, Thomas Homer-Dixon proposes a cyclical dynamic powered by the relative costs and rewards of participation in the status quo:  Once the costs exceed the rewards, people lose the incentive to support the status quo with their labour and participation. They drift away (what I term opting out/going off-grid) or quiet quitting by reducing their effort to align with the diminished rewards and opportunities to advance their own interests, which is actually happening now.

The Russian economist Kondratieff famously observed how credit cycles, between expansion and contraction, powers economic expansion and contraction.  Financial markets keep the score.  The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter outlines a dynamic in which the advantages of adding complexity to a social/economic system are substantial at the beginning but as the returns from additional complexity diminish, the costs eventually outweigh any gains and the system decays.

The success of adding complexity is institutionalised by the status quo, which then clings to this strategy even as the returns on adding complexity become negative and thus destructive. I call this “doing more of what’s failed.”

Other systems analysts (Donella Meadows et al.) have illuminated the non-linear character of systemic transformations.  Ugo Bardi calls this “The Seneca Cliff”: systems which expanded slowly and steadily can decay and collapse quite suddenly and violently, surprising everyone who took the previous stability as permanent. Sand-piles and motorway grid locks are examples.

Complex systems follow their own rules, and so unlike politics, our opinions don’t change the results.  All of these dynamics are (in my analysis) clearly visible in the global status quo. The rational conclusion is the risks of disruption, disorder and conflict, as things decay and fall apart, are relatively high.

While some trends and conflicts can last for decades (the Thirty Years War in Europe, the Cold War between the US and the USSR), diminishing returns on status quo “solutions” that no longer work as anticipated tend to unravel on the periphery which then spreads quickly to the core.

Those economies and societies which are hidebound and centralised politically and economically are brittle because they lack the systemic means to adapt quickly and successfully to diminishing returns, seismic shifts in price and the availability of essentials.

Brittle systems that lack the structural means to adapt decay and collapse. This is scale-invariant, which means this is equally true of households, small businesses, global enterprises, nations and empires.

There are many such brittle systems in the global status quo, and to expect all of them to remain stable as diminishing returns start yielding negative returns (i.e. cost more than they produce in gains) and scarcities drive prices higher than the bottom 90% can afford as inflation reduces the purchasing power of their earnings.  This expectation is based on a confidence that past trends are essentially permanent and every system in the world today will adapt successfully to scarcity, disorder and the reversal of financialisation and globalisation.

This might be the outcome but given all the dynamics that are so readily visible, it would be prudent to consider the potential for dominoes falling on the periphery (i.e. in “places that don’t matter”) will soon be toppling dominoes in the core centres of power and control.

In my analysis, the dominant dynamic is always natural selection. Our opinions and projections don’t change anything. What divides the systems that endure and become stronger and those that decay and collapse is their evolutionary vigour, which is a function of decentralised competition, transparency, sharing of information and experimentation that is rewarded rather than punished..

Simply put: systems that view dissent and disorderly churn as threats will decay and collapse because the most powerful forces of adaptability are dissent and disorderly churn.

It shouldn’t surprise us if 2023 turns out to be atypical and disruptively transformational in ways few believe possible. http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2022/12/will-2023-be-just-average-recession-in.html

INFLATION WATCH: The unusually mild weather has reduced demand for heating, and allowed households and businesses to reduce energy usage and bills. UK natural gas prices  have fallen recently and thus we would expect retail tariffs to follow suit.  But the prices are for ‘futures’ as energy suppliers buy gas and electricity in advance, allowing them to fix some of their costs. This means that wholesale price falls are not immediately passed on to consumers; prices for later this year are now higher than near-term costs.

Under Liz Truss’ short reign, her government covered wholesale energy costs for suppliers, projected to cost billions.  Now the prices have fallen, the cost to UK Treasury will be much less.  Perhaps this will relieve the pressure on consumers to use fewer kVA.  Also the likelihood of power cuts this winter, which were designed to minimise the price-support cost to HMG, have receded for now.

But wait, we are not out of the woods yet, we could have another cold snap as we have many weeks to go before the sun shines yet again albeit in short intervals.  Other prices are rising which will not bring relief for this year until the energy markets find some equilibrium. Here’s a useful map of Britain showing how different areas are affected by fuel poverty.  This is the shocking reality of living in Britain today.

SURVIVAL MONITOR:  As always, Charles Hugh Smith hits the nail on the head when he says: “Those who see the madness for what it is have only one escape: go to ground, fade from public view, become self-reliant and weather the coming storm in the nooks and crannies where cause and effect, skeptical inquiry, humility, prudence and thrift can still be nurtured.”

CHS goes on to explain that a great madness sweeps the land. “There are no limits on extremes in greed, credulity, convictions, inequality, bombast, recklessness, fraud, corruption, arrogance, hubris, pride, over-reach, self-righteousness and confidence in the rightness of one’s opinions. Extremes only become more extreme even as the folly of previous extremes wearies rationality.

Imaginary sins are conjured out of thin air to convict the innocent while those guilty of the most egregious fraud and corruption are lauded as saviours.  The national mood is aggrieved and bitter. The luxuries of self-righteousness, indignation, entitlement and resentment have impoverished the national spirit. Bankrupted by these excesses, what little treasure remains is squandered on plots of petty revenge.” http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2022/12/a-great-madness-sweeps-land.html

NARRATIVE BATTLE:  WHY DO WE GO ON BELIEVING THESE IDIOTS?  Igor Chudov has the climate scam detail that puts all the UN/WEF rubbish into perspective – yes it’s a monumental scam:

“Let’s appreciate how lucky we all are.  We are having a great holiday season. We did not die last year in the “Winter of Illness and Death for the Unvaccinated.”  We did not die of overheating, starvation, dust bowl, and massive ocean flooding that was supposed to kill or displace us by 2019.

Let’s talk about the last point: a 1989 AP article explains that the UN predicted a global climate disaster that was supposed to happen within 30 years, so by 2019.  The article is terrifying to read. Actual quotes:

• Entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000
• Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of “eco- refugees.”
• Ocean levels will rise by up to three feet, enough to cover the Maldives and island nations.
• The most conservative scientific estimate is that the Earth’s temperature will rise 1 to 7 degrees in the next 30 years, said Brown.

You may be relieved to find out that the actual temperature change between 1989 and 2021, if you believe the official temperature numbers 0.27 Deg C.https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/funny-un-predicts-disaster-if-global?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web

BUT Igor’s charts are short term – go back much further in time and the situation is undeniable – 12 minutes will expose the reality:

UNTIL NEXT WEEK:  For more, read: “The Financial Jigsaw”: Scroll:   https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358117070_THE_FINANCIAL_JIGSAW_-_PART_1_-_4th_Edition_2020   including regular updates.  For a  free PDF copy e-Books, Parts 1 & 2,  email; [email protected]

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COVID & FINANCE LINKS: [I will not be commenting specifically on Covid in future because my colleague covers daily updates at his websites]:  YOUR DAILY COVID NEWS (cmnnews.org) and BOOM Finance & Economics (boomfinanceandeconomics.com) plus BOOM Finance and Economics | Designed for Critical Thinkers — UPDATED WEEKLY (wordpress.com)

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Author: Austrian Peter

Peter J. Underwood is a retired international accountant and qualified humanistic counsellor living in Bruton, UK, with his wife, Yvonne. He pursued a career as an entrepreneur and business consultant, having founded several successful businesses in the UK and South Africa His latest Substack blog describes the African concept of Ubuntu - a system of localised community support using a gift economy model. View all posts by Austrian Peter