Guest Post by Moon of Alabama
Soledar has fallen to Russian troops. Bakhmut (Artymovsk) will follow soon.
This constitutes the breach of Ukraine’s second defense line within the Donetzk and Lysichansk oblasts. I will discuss those lines with the maps below.
The first map shows the range of land taken by Russian forces by April 1 2022 (Kiev region not shown).
Russia had invaded with a small force of some 100,000 soldiers supported by some 50,000 soldiers of the Donetzk/Luhansk Republics. The opposing forces were 250,000 regular Ukrainian army troops which quickly grew to 450,000 and then 650,000 by mobilization of reserve forces plus the Territorial Defense Forces. During the first weeks the Russian forces had taken a huge amount of land that they barely had the numbers to hold.
At that point Russia was still hoping that the negotiations held at that time with Ukraine in Turkey would have a positive outcome. As a confidence measure it had already started to pull back from around Kiev. However, after phone calls from and a visit by the British prime minister Boris Johnson the Ukrainian government ended the negotiations by suddenly adding demands the Russia would never agree to. The troops from Kiev were pulled back anyway and moved to the east of Ukraine where they started an attack on the first defense line (yellow) of the Ukrainian forces.
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This first defense line, like later ones, ran along railway and road communication routes that connect major cities. In the map above the cities that constituted the first defense line were, north to south, Siverodonetsk, Lysichansk, Popasna, Svitlodarsk.
By July 1 2022 the first Ukrainian defense line was breached and defeated by Russian forces. The Ukrainian troops moved back to their second defense line. However, the defeat of the first defense line had taken its toll of the small Russian Special Military Operation force.
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The Russian forces tried to avoid a costly direct attack on the second Ukrainian defense line. It launched an operation to breach into the Donetzk oblast behind the second Ukrainian defense line from the north (now gray area). The battles for Izium and Lyman were fought for that purpose. However, the wooden area north of the Siversky Donets river that runs east to west as well as the river itself proved to be difficult to cross. Several attempts to move significant forces across it failed.
At the end of August 2022 the exhausted Russian forces had switched to a defensive posture and into an ‘economy of force’ mode. Troops that were holding the Kharkiv area north of the Donetzk oblast were reduced. The other forces were moved to the eastern front to strengthen the Russian lines on that front.
Meanwhile Ukraine was openly discussing and preparing for an attack on the Kherson region north of the Dnieper river with the final aim of crossing the river to then move towards Crimea. Russia responded by further reducing the troop numbers in the northern Kharkiv region to a few thousand men and by using the others to further strengthen its positions in the south around Kherson.
During the fall the Ukrainian attacks on the Kherson region all failed with high losses. However U.S. intelligence advised the Ukrainian command that the Kharkiv region, while still held by Russian forces, was practically empty. The command switched the active front towards the north and successfully moved into the Kharkiv region while Russian troops still positioned there moved further east.
This was a quite fast operation that looked very successful. But the speed also meant that the heavy Ukrainian artillery cover was thin to not existent. This while the retreating Russian forces used their own artillery to attack Ukrainian front formations in pre-planned fire missions. After proceeding fast over some 70 kilometers from west to east the Ukrainian attack force had taken high losses and ran out of steam. It came up to a new Russian defense line (red) covered by two rivers that proved difficult to cross. The Kharkiv front has since stabilized.
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Meanwhile a new Russian commander, General Sergey Surovkin, took over. He warned immediately that he would have to take some difficult decisions. This was related to the situation in the Kherson region north of the Dnieper. Constant attacks on the river crossings with U.S. supplied missiles made the logistic situation very difficult. The command decided to pull back behind the river. This operation was remarkably successful. Ten thousands of civilians plus some 25,000 soldiers with all their equipment were removed from the area with only few if any losses.
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The now heavily reduced Ukrainian forces will likely have to give up on holding the second defense line to then create a third one to the west of it.
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The Russian moves against the third and fourth Ukrainian defense lines will likely be supported by a move from the south that will liberate the rest of the Zaporiziha and Donetsk oblast.
Aside from those operations the Russian command has sufficient number of troops available to run another major attack. This could come from the north into the Kharkiv regain behind the Ukrainian troops currently attacking the Russian lines further east.
The Russian forces in Ukraine were tasked with liberating the oblast that Russia had recognized as independent states (Donetzk and Luhansk) as well as those that had additionally voted to become part of Russia (Zaporiziha and Kherson).
With the breaking up of all four Ukrainian defense lines in Donetzk oblast that task will be fulfilled. This with the exception of the part of the Kherson region north of the Dnieper river which will require a separate operation on its own. The Russian command may want to wait for this until more Ukrainian forces have been destroyed while holding their defense lines.
Another task given to the Special Military operation was to ‘demilitarize’ and ‘denazify’ Ukraine. The Ukrainian tactic of holding fixed lines anchored on major cities at any price has come at a significant cost. Russian artillery is superior to the Ukrainian by a factor of ten. The Russian forces use it to destroy Ukrainian troops holding the lines while taking only few losses on their own side.
Today’s Wall Street Journal finally noted that this Ukrainian battle tactic is not a winning one:
Western—and some Ukrainian—officials, soldiers and analysts increasingly worry that Kyiv has allowed itself to be sucked into the battle for Bakhmut on Russian terms, losing the forces it needs for a planned spring offensive as it stubbornly clings to a town of limited strategic relevance. Some of them say that it would make sense to retreat to a new defensive line on the heights west of Bakhmut while such a pullback can still be organized in a coordinated fashion, preserving the Ukrainian military’s combat strength.“It’s not me, it’s King Leonidas who figured out that you should fight the enemy on the terrain that is advantageous to you,” said one Ukrainian commander in Bakhmut, referring to the ruler of Sparta who battled the Persian Empire at Thermopylae. “So far, the exchange rate of trading our lives for theirs favors the Russians. If this goes on like this, we could run out.”
The Ukrainian soldier is right. However, a different form of fighting the war would be a mobile delay and retreat action from which local counter offensives would be launched. This requires a lot of equipment, battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, that the Ukraine no longer has. It also requires troops and larger formations trained for that type of fight. Some 60 year old mailman drafted during Ukraine’s 9th mobilization wave will not be able to learn this during his two weeks training course.
Had the professional Ukrainian army that exited before the war been allowed to give up on cities and had it used a mobile combined arms tactic of delay-retreat-counterattack it probably would have been more successful. But that army has by now been destroy with Russian artillery because Kiev insisted on holding cities and lines at any price.
The U.S. will only now start to train Ukrainian troops in combined arms and joint maneuvering. It will be too little too late to make any difference.
As of current news, today we see fake news headlines like this from NBC:
Putin replaces commander of Russia’s war in Ukraine after just 3 months
Valery Gerasimov takes over from Sergei Surovikin, who will now serve as one of his deputies, Russia’s defense ministry said Wednesday.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has replaced the commander leading his forces in Ukraine just three months after he handed him the job.Gen. Valery Gerasimov will take over from Sergei Surovikin, the country’s defense ministry said on Telegram Wednesday, a change that comes as Kyiv warns Moscow is planning a major new offensive after months of battlefield setback.
The above is a misinterpretation of a simple naming change.
Russians With Attitude @RWApodcast – 16:09 UTC · Jan 11, 2023As I understand it, we went from 1 to 2
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Speaking of 404, there was some world-class trolling at Larry’s site, sonar21.com, yesterday:
“Larry, what do you really know?
I mean, just today on CNN they told us (https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/10/politics/russian-artillery-fire-down-75-percent-ukraine/index.html) that Russia is running out of artillery shells and everything else really. They are losing, sad and incompetent as they are.
Three “journalists” from CNN said so, against one of you and of course I believe them – for crying out loud, they are JOURNALISTS and being American, they are automatically OBJECTIVE and CANNOT LIE. One of them is barely in their early 30s and already a “national security correspondent”. I mean, all your years of experience and you know less than some fresh grad. I am thinking of going to get a degree in humanities or something and then maybe in two to three years I can be a Pentagon correspondent for MSNBC? Do you think that’s doable?
In conclusion, Soledar has not fallen. CNN said so as much and BBC even says there are “competing narratives about it”. CNN also said that Prigozhin only wants the salt mines. Prigozhin is a bastard (we know he is, he is a Russian OLIGARCH after all) for wanting the mines but Dick of Halliburton fame was an angel and rightfully so to take all the oil from Iraq. Right?
Even if Soledar does fall, CNN says it is not important and Bakhmut is not important either.
Thank you.”
And thiss is after one Russkie stating that they have enough material to wipe Les Francais & Jolly Ole England off the map.
Now let’s go the phones and take calls from people making a buck off this.
Wait.
I thought they were on the offensive driving the Russians back to Moscow?
What month is this?
Waiting till September to finish this leaves too much time for false flags and the expected desperate moves from the despicable west…..
I wrestle with the thought……are we just sitting around waiting for the nukes to fly?
And is that the best way for this to end?
(I Pray not)….
I hate being lumped with the cowards and the crazies in this sad, sad world…..and my Family thinks it’s 1941….or 1861.
We aren’t going to win this time.
This time?
This clown country hasn’t won a real war in a long time….
We didn’t win in 1865 or 1945 either. What makes you think this time would be different?
This was on Moon of Alabama site. A short, terrible video showing what our government encourages.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/28450
What would happen if they showed that on the nightly news? You can bet terrible scenes like that will never be shown on the nightly news. If so, it may wake the sheep up and these wars would be stopped.
You are right, the nightly news did not mind showing all the women and children fleeing ukraine at the beginning of this american sponsored war. Just imagine how many left for supposedly safety not knowing they would never see fathers, husbands, sons, and boyfriends ever again, their corpses full of bullet wounds left to rot in fighting holes.
I thought Putin was on his deathbed plus his GF left him…………a mere shell of his former self.
Soledar is producing moar salt for export to the West then it’s mines ever did.
No one wants to talk about the massive armor being staged in Belarus just North of Ukraine and in Russia just East of Ukraine the past 3-4 months.
No! Wait! That can’t be! Russia, since last March was running out of everything.
MASSIVE staging.
Oh. And I almost forget. Russia isn’t even using its 1st tier weapons in Ukraine… as I reminded one serious expert on these matters 3 months ago who said… “You’re right. 1st tier weapons for 1st tier adversary. NATO.”
Time for the West to piss or get off the pot: Get Joe to send in the Smartest Man he knows. Hunter has all kinds of experience in Ukraine matters of importance. You can bet your sweet ass he can advise the Ukie generals how to get out of their current jam by halftime! But Hunter won’t come cheap-$300-400 billion might get his attention, and don’t forget the extra 10% for the brain dead Big Guy.
Which comes first in this fratricidal horror show: Numba Juan Ukie Zel leaves town for good or Russian forces liberate Odessa?