China is too structurally weak for world domination

Consideration of the calorie problem is always the strategic imperative. Food is the basis for economic policy in primitive countries because political stability arises from food security. The Chinese obviously import a significant portion of their food from abroad. The US and the UK are the worlds’ largest food exporters and there is not possible to eliminate this Chinese structural difficulty.  Their attempts to buy farmland across the world are a testament to this reality.  We have recently seen the bird flu, swine flu and a wheat fungus further attacking their food stability.  The Chinese agriculture minister said in March of 2022 that this could be the worst winter wheat crop ever.  He was correct.  The Chinese President began a campaign to “clean your plate” in restaurants to help address the problem of food waste in the middle class with a catchy that political phrase. We have no word on its’ level of success.

Next the Belt and Road system has been touted as a sign of Chinese strength, but is actually a sign of weakness.  Many of  the countries involved are continually on the verge of bankruptcy and are on the list of a who’s who of financial irresponsibility. (DC anyone)?  Much of the African continent and several South American countries have announced joining this new financial system as well as many undeveloped Asian countries. I have yet to see them actually attempting to pay other countries with yuan.  The reason for the Belt and Road popularity is that the under-developed world has nowhere else to acquire funds for infrastructure since the US banks are less able to depend on taxpayers’ swindled funds for bailouts.

The upgrading of ports and rail lines with the system appears to be an excellent program for all concerned.  China has the mortgage and the country has the use of the new infrastructure.  The problem arises from the number of defaults from these historically unstable regimes. How will the loan be paid back?  The port or railroad cannot be repossessed, therefore the investment will be lost adding to the wrong side of the Chinese balance sheet. Sri Lanka defaulting exposed this huge flaw in the concept. It does create a home for the Chinese educated engineers and laborers that cannot build a family life in China because of the lack of women available.  Angry educated men are more difficult to politically control than the average peasant and better shipped far away.

The petro-yuan use around the world is a new step in international trade.  The dollar has been dominant since Bretton Woods in 1944 and attempting to dethrone it is an interesting strategy. The Chinese realize that they are dependent on the US market for a significant amount of their positive balance of trade.  If we or the EU decided to move our manufacturing elsewhere or preferably home, China is out of luck. The countries lining up for this lifeline for their moribund economic situation are hoping to default on their US debt again and then to replace it with loans from the new bank on the block.  The history of these countries is one of continual bankruptcies that have been saved by the US taxpayer in the form of bailing out Wall Street banks from their bad loans for the past 75 years.  Argentina just floated the idea again last week.

The countries that extend from Pakistan to Peru have a similar social and governmental structure and are large  participants in this program. This structure originated in the Moslem tribal system of elite domination of the peons in society.  This was extended into the Iberian peninsula where their rule extended for 800 years allowing for Arab customs and genetics to permeate Spanish government and culture.  The culture was extended to South America through colonization and continues today.  The same families still rule in these countries after centuries of domination.  The results are a moribund economy with a non-educated peasant class with a small industrial base desperate for economic relief.  Their stagnation will continue. Ask our Border Patrol as to results.

This of course means little or no economic boost for China here either  The only bright spots are Saudi Arabia and Russia using the new currency for the oil trade.  There is very little risk for either because the old petro-dollar system is still readily available at the first sign of difficulty.

The next Chinese difficulty is lack of energy.  They will need to import over 200 million tons of coal this year.  They will also import over $225 billion in oil. A very simple boycott or a blockade would eliminate China as a world power.  The only question of course would be whether Chairman Whoo Flung Dung would push the red button before his friends arrived with the guillotine.  Any economic sanctions of their exports by the EU and/or the USA would dry up their foreign exchange quite rapidly. That would make the Arabs think twice about the petro-yuan.

Internal Difficulties

The next indicator of weakness is the number of empty cities built by internal political graft. They sit as a mute reminder of the corruption and incompetence of all government officials worldwide.  The billions wasted could have been more properly invested quite easily.  The population control of the one child program has also failed miserably and has been shelved for a new program of rewards for large families. That may fill the empty cities but increase the need for imported food and fuel.

The Chinese culture has not accounted for general technical education or lower class education until recently.  There are not enough professors to teach engineering or science to the youth. They have been sent to the US to inundate our campuses with funds to pay off professors, administrators and diversity departments. Then it’s off towards home to emulate the systems they learned here.  It is development by theft.  There is one addenda. The kids have been exposed to “impure” US capitalist societal drivel. This malignancy extends throughout the new middle class.  How long before these western ideas permeate Peking?

Some Military Observations

China is currently using Formosa as center of the “wag the dog” method of international relations appealing to its’ populaces’ patriotism to cover up the governmental failures.  Maybe an attempted jump to Formosa would save the heads of the politburo.  The Chinese army has a poor record in the past 60 years. There was a border clash and loss to Russia in 1969, a stalemate with Vietnam in 1975, and the current kerfuffle using sticks and stones against India in Kashmir.  Geography and economics combine to make China more of a maritime nation, but a Navy is expensive and requires generational expertise.  An embargo of food and fuel from the US, Canada, and Australia would end the party before it begins.

The only real accomplishment of the Belt and Road concept of Chinese domination is to show that the idea of a Davos control of the world is amusing.

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