While the prevailing post-payrolls narrative has focused on the divergence between the soggy headline payrolls print (which at 187K not only missed expectations for a second consecutive month, but was the lowest number since Dec 2020), and the stronger than expected hourly earnings (which beat expectations only because hours worked dropped again to 34.3, a level last seen in the pre-covid days) and the drop in unemployment rate (which brings us even further from the Fed’s year-end dot plot target of 4.1%, a closer look at the details of today’s jobs report reveals just how ugly the reality behind the the Budget-Busting Bidenomics truly is.
Let’s start with revisions.
Regular readers are aware that earlier this year we spotted a peculiar trend when it comes to economic data releases by the Biden admin which – without fail – had been revised lower…
US jobless claims mysteriously surge upon “data” revision
US jobs mysteriously revised sharply lower upon “data” revision
Europe mysteriously enters recession upon “data” revision
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 8, 2023
Take a wild guess in which direction the May 339K NFP print was revised
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 7, 2023
Payrolls for every month in 2023 have been revised lower. pic.twitter.com/VwfUvBJnCe
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 7, 2023
… and this month was no different. In fact, as shown in the chart below, the jobs print from every single month has been revised lower! Why? So that the White House can take credit for a strong number (one which also sparks algorithmic buying in the market) only to quietly revise it lower one and two months later when nobody is looking.
But that’s just the start. Next we turn to the numbers behind the headline job prints which were actually not that terrible: the monthly nonfarm payrolls (from the Establishment Survey( may have been weak at 187K but the far more accurate Household Survey showed that the number of Employed workers actually increased by 268K to 161.3 million, the second month in a row the Household Survey bested the Establishment.
So far so good. There are just two problems with this number. First, the Birth-Death (B-D) model, which is integrated into the BLS’ Current Employment Statistics (CES) release, which contains the NFPs and which serves as one of the core “tweak” layers which the BLS uses to adjust the actual, raw underlying jobs number and goalseek a desired jobs number. It will not come as a surprise to many that in July, the Birth Death adjustment hit the second highest of 2023 at 280K. In other words, most if not all job “gains” were as a result of the BLS assuming that newly “birthed” “businesses created at least 280K new jobs, a number which is not based at all on observable facts but is a regression to some historical trendline which only the BLS is privy to.
Unfortunately, it gets much worse, because while the Establishment Survey only looks at jobs quantitatively, the Household Survey (which again was stronger this month) also looks at the quality of jobs gained or lost, and specifically it breaks down the jobs into full-time and part-time jobs (Source: Table A-9).
Well, one look at this month’s adjustment and it’s literally a shocker: you will not hear anyone from the Biden admin or associated economist cheerleaders mention this, but the BLS reported that in July the number of full-time jobs plunged by 585,000 to 134.274 million, the biggest monthly drop since record covid crash of 14.7 million jobs!
But if full-time jobs crashed how did the BLS get an increase of almost 300,000 employed workers? Simple: it was all in the surge of part-time workers. In July, the number of part-timers exploded by almost one million – 972K to be precise – to 27.153 million.
Finally, going back to a quantitative read of the data, we look at the number of multiple jobholders – those workers who have to work more than one job at a time to make ends meet. In July, that number surged by 118K, and at 8.113 million was just shy of the pre-covid record hit in July 2019.
Putting it all together, if one believes the headlines, in July the US added 187K payrolls, and the number of employed workers rose by 268K. However, taking a closer look at the composition we find that in July, the number of well-paid, full-time workers collapsed by a near record 585K, offset by a 972K surge in part-time workers. As for the balance, it was the 118K people who discovered last month that to keep up with the economic miracle that is bidenomics, they need to work at least one more job.
In short: July was a catastrophic month for the jobs market, which is why we expect the usual theater: non-stop spin and lies from the Biden admin, and not a single relevant question from the liberal media whose job is not to educate or inform, but to carry water, spread lies and enable propaganda.
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It’s a good thing they brought in another 30 million spicks to fill in all these jobs.
Our Hispanic neighbors are a god send to our rural area. They get work done.
I get what you’re saying but it’s not general.
Go back to where you came from
Good to see we’ve got ANOTHER 1st Amendment advocate here! /s
They do the work Americans used to do but for much lower wages putting Americans in poverty or out of work.
Anal mouse you don’t deserve a job you lazy fuck
As you can see, Guest, bigotry is pervasive here on TBP…Jew haters, nigger haters, Russian haters. They never speak of the individual except in passing and usually pertaining to themselves…unless it is to attempt ridicule of those with whom they disagree.
Don’t get caught up in their emotional bullshit. Live local, love local, fight local. Follow your heart and nothing else.
Yeah, I know. They suck all of the air out of a conversation just as they probably mean to. However there are a few real ones here that speak in dulcet tones, just like the old fashioned elite freaks (which they are, just probably have no individual power).
I usually never read economic articles (just watch the headlines) because economics is more propaganda rich than the Medical Industrial Complex. They have all the theories, graphs, models, projections, averages, that make AI happy and fruitful.
The alt news just parrots the mainstream. I would love to see one article that says some like, ‘what if they throw a recession/depression and no one participated.’
We are seeing some interesting trends and I wondered if others are. A major one is a severe lack of employees with (for now) a lot of jobs.
Another is a lot of people don’t realize that certain things are made by one, or a few, companies- for example fret wire. If they quit making it choices go down exponentially etc.
This is what we’re seeing, too.
Wonder how many years it will take for THEM to figure out they’ve been fucked just like the people they replaced. I’m thinking maybe never? Shit. Half of US haven’t figured it out yet and it’s been almost 250 years.
I think there is a demographic thing going on: a lot of women who left jobs after the COVID shutdown (had to rearrange, then stayed home or got parttime jobs), boomers quitting but quite a few have gotten part time jobs,
a smaller population of young people, in general, right now. I have read that millennials are a huge group, but don’t believe it, and even less Z Gen (although the millennials I do know seem to be having plenty of kids). Everyone eating out for instance are older- except medical people and they are in their 30’s it seems…
There could also be a percentage of people incapacitated/died suddenly (even 1% would subtract from workers).
Lack of employees very noticeable here.
I know this is all antidotal (and my state is low population anyway).
Business wise (all over- not just local) we are now having shortages (again) or outright businesses just not making things anymore. There’s more.
I personally would like to hear more personal biz news if everyone isn’t retired around here. Seeing any trends?
I have not seen articles here reporting on the attack on home owners these days via exploding insurance and property taxes. Even worse than before. Asset stealing in overdrive, and is probably one reason why interest rates are staying low.
Do most of the millennials live in cities?
No, basements. They identified with Biden in his basement too.
and “Mussels” Cuomo was in his basement too,
Does anyone remember that CNN presstitute who got the Pestilence and “quarrantined” in his basement – acted the martyr and everything.
Meanwhile his brother, Andrew Cuomo, as then governor of the Vampire State, made sure lots of grannies were getting terminated at the old folks homes; nice long lockdowns; jab or job utimatums for N.Y. government employees…vaxxine passports at NYC restaurants…
That’s the problem right there: people do not remember shit anymore. Hochul was re-elected and Whitmer and the rest of the Commucrat establishment behind the tyranny.
Maybe this how memes can be propaganda too.
It was middle aged men that disappeared from the work force. You can read up on it.
Maybe.
I am one of those, so “maybe” is reality. I saw it coming 30 years ago.
Middle Ages men were raised to get married have children and support their families.
Instead they got trailer trash ghetto sluts divorce raping them because they aren’t happy.
The current 20 something’s women are pursuing careers and status and dick. Not husbands and families.
Then when they have been rode hard and put up wet in their 40s they will be ready for marriage.
“antidotal”
I know but went with it.
Bidenomics, you to can work part-time now, even two or three part-time jobs just to survive.
Always has been true for certain groups, especially the young. We had to. Half the millennials I know all go to Europe or Hawaii for week long weddings etc. These are the city folk however.
No babies no workers 20 years later. That’s the problem. And It’s becoming a world wide problem.
The elites don’t want or need workers. They will have their robots and a few human slaves. World depopulation is not an accident, it is being done on purpose.
If 5% interest rates are enough to crash the ‘very strong economy’ we really are living in a house of cards.
Hey, Jimmy Carter brought us 14% interest rates, we have a long way to go. The problem is I don’t see another Reagan on the horizon.
Things is fixin’ to get rough
Once again, right out of the Obama playbook. Adding up yet?
Shame on you for mining the pockets of the most gullible Americans, like my friend Kizma