Guest Post by Chris MacIntosh
Could we see more insane solutions to reach Net Zero?
I will summarise this insanity for you. We’ll cut down trees that naturally take in CO2 (with diesel chainsaws), bury them underground using large diesel powered bulldozers, and we’ll have legislature passed that allows us to get paid with your tax dollars to do this.
But wait! We’re not finished yet. We will do all of this while telling you that we’re saving YOU from climate change. If you believe this abject idiocy, then do us all a favour now and leave the room because you are stealing oxygen from the rest of us. Good Lord!
Here’s more deamland stuff…
Wood Mackenzie is out with a recent report on the supply demand dynamics of oil and gas. It was interesting but generally fitted in with the general agenda of oil being displaced by EVs (electric vehicles) and the like.
The invasion of Ukraine underlined the global economy’s dependence on oil and other fossil fuels. Oil demand will continue to rise for several years, though growth will slow progressively after 2024, from the current elevated rate of over 2 million b/d per year, as the post-pandemic recovery fades. We expect demand to peak at 108 million b/d in the early 2030s before beginning its long-term decline.
Fuel efficiency, spurred by regulation, will creep ever upward, new vehicles will be better than those they replace. The unfolding transition will gradually see oil displaced by electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, natural gas substitution and, eventually, synthetic fuels (e-fuels).
But this will take time. Only by the late 2020s will internal combustion engines account for less than half of global new vehicle sales. And another decade will pass before they fall below half of the total vehicle stock, which, by then, will be 50% larger than it is today. Oil will prove even stickier in shipping, aviation and haulage, sectors in which equipment has long in-service lives. As a consequence, oil demand is set to remain above 90 million b/d out to 2050.
Couple of observations. First, the amount of capex ($500bn) is about half that of the 2010-2014 period. This isn’t to say that the peak in 2014 should be a benchmark, we do note that there have been efficiency improvements over the last 10 years.
However, what Wood Mac fails to say is that many oil and gas service companies are either at or near full capacity with significant constraints to increasing capacity before 2030.
Take offshore oil rigs as an example. They are near 90% utilisation, and even if rig operators wanted to get a new rig built, an unwillingness of banks to finance, lack of capacity at shipbuilders, and general unwillingness to take on projects as evidenced with 40% deposits required, a rig operator would be lucky to take delivery of a rig before 2030. Subsea operators have a backlogs of 2-3 years. So throwing more money at oil and gas service companies isn’t going to result in any material increase in capacity to produce oil and gas.
Wood Mac seems to echo what everyone else is saying. Oil is about to enter a long-term decline, not for lack of supply but rather demand.
As if fuel efficiency hasn’t crept ever upward over the last 30 years and with new vehicles becoming more efficient than those they replace! Hello, what planet are you folk on?
Oil displaced by EVs, fuel cell electric vehicles (hydrogen), natural gas substitution and synthetic fuels? First of all, hydrogen is a joke. And EVs? Wood Mac don’t address the requirements of minerals/base metals required to build all these EVs. We have addressed this before. There just isn’t enough. Yes, natural gas can be used to run vehicles (LNG & LPG), but this only happens when the price of petrol becomes unattractive relative to the cost of natural gas. And e-fuels? That is ethanol… and where does that come from? Corn and sugar.
We are tempted to say that Wood Mac’s reasoning is wishful thinking at best.
It comes down to this: will people of emerging nations continue to desire/crave a standard of living enjoyed by developed nations? If your answer is yes, then the demand for oil is going to increase and likely way more than what those responsible for the supply of oil are positioning for. The answer is because there is no realistic/practical replacement for oil.
Here is the irony of oil supply: capex spending isn’t remotely close to 2014 levels because the crowd believes in the energy transformation thing. This thinking has already led to a long-term supply deficit (i.e. it is going to be quite some time before the world will be oversupplied in oil).
Industry runs on energy and it builds wealth. Wealth disincentives violence and antisocial behaviour. Destruction of industry (through the destruction of energy supply) brings poverty, social unrest, and anti-social behaviour. These trends are now well in motion, and frankly, I see nothing stopping them. The entire socialised Western monetary system, political system, and economic system must collapse. We are watching it taking place before our very eyes.
Folks, we are in the early stages of what I believe will be easily the biggest wealth transformation in the last 100 years, maybe more. Maybe I’m wrong, but everything I’m looking at points to this being the case.
Editor’s Note: The Western system is undergoing substantial changes, and the signs of moral decay, corruption, and increasing debt are impossible to ignore. With the Great Reset in motion, the United Nations, World Economic Forum, IMF, WHO, World Bank, and Davos man are all promoting a unified agenda that will affect us all.
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These people are insane and evil. The only science here is how can we DESTROY the environmental balance in order to do away with the untermenschen? Gates and his minions are the only carbon in desperate need of burying.
Not just Gates but all of his ilk.
https://worldyturnings.wordpress.com/2022/09/06/mandrake-news-3/
Power plants, industrial sites and on-road vehicles are cleaner than they used to be, which has driven nationwide improvement in air quality. However, far too many people still breathe in unhealthy levels of ozone, and warmer temperatures due to climate change make unhealthy ozone days more likely.
Ozone | American Lung Association
American Lung Association
https://www.lung.org › what-makes-air-unhealthy › ozone
These fuckers……..remember when there wasn’t enough ozone-“man had depleted it”….. now there are unhealthy levels of it because the ozone layer is “healed”.
Worthless motherfuckers, all of them.
Once you can internalize they are deliberately lying about everything, it gets more coherent.
Eventually the realization that nothing can be built or function without fossil fuels will hit people right between the eyes. Maybe before they commit suicide.
In the 1960s it was plastics is the future. Now it’s coal
YOU! Are the carbon to be buried.
Choose wisely.