There is a prevailing expectation for the developing war in the Middle East – If Israel commits to a ground invasion the conflict will expand to the rest of the region. Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Yemen and others will react with a troop buildup or will engage with Israel outright, even with the presence of two US carrier groups. The rhetoric is swirling around what might happen should this chain of dominoes fall, but the most common prediction is that Israel would lose in a multifront war unless US forces intercede.
There is, however, another scenario that most analysts rarely if ever consider. It’s one of the biggest non-secret secrets in the proliferation of armaments – Israel has a nuclear arsenal and has been developing it since the late-1950s.
In 1958 the Eisenhower Administration discovered a secret nuclear reactor in Negev desert of Israel that was disguised as the development of a textile manufacturing plant. Also known as the Dimona nuclear site, the reactor was built with French assistance and utilized heavy water purchased from Norway through a deal brokered by the UK government. The project was designed to experiment with plutonium for use in nuclear weapons.
A Special National Intelligence Estimate (SNIE 100-8-60 from 8 December 1960) formally determined that “Israel is engaged in construction of a nuclear reactor complex in the Negev near Beersheba” and “plutonium production for weapons is at least one major purpose of this effort.” The SNIE estimated “that Israel would produce some weapons grade plutonium in 1963-64 and possibly as early as 1962.” A significant portion of the SNIE is still classified.
The Israeli nuclear arsenal is now suspected to include hundreds of warheads capable of being delivered by several methods. These include gravity bombs dropped by F-16s, cruise missiles fired from mobile platforms and even submarines with modified cruise missiles. Interestingly, Israel just launching a large new class of submarine this summer called the DolphinI/II which appear to carry much bigger missiles than previous submarines. These subs may in fact be capable of carrying and launching nuclear weapons and could strike almost anywhere in the world.
The most likely use of nuclear weapons by Israel, though, would be as a deterrent to wider war. The international agreement Israel follows requires that they not be the first nation in the Middle East to “introduce” such weapons. The word “introduced” has been interpreted very broadly to mean that Israel will not ever officially admit they have nuclear weapons, thereby spurring an arms race.
That said, a deterrent weapon is not much of a deterrent unless your enemies know you have it. This might explain why Israeli officials have hinted at the existence of nukes in the past, calling them “other capabilities” in discussions on Israeli defense.
The employment of nukes is another matter entirely. It would seem that a number of nations are ready to engage with Israel in direct warfare in the wake of the attack by Hamas, merely waiting for Israel to strike back with a significant ground force. These governments might have forgotten Israel has nukes, or, they might believe that Israel would never dare use them. This is a dangerous assumption.
Former Prime Minister Yair Lapid noted in a discussion on defense last year that Israel has “other capabilities” (i.e. nukes):
“The operational arena in the invisible dome above us is built on defensive capabilities and offensive capabilities, and what the foreign media tends to call ‘other capabilities.’ These other capabilities keep us alive and will keep us alive so long as we and our children are here…”
In other words, Israel intends to use their nuclear capabilities should their civilization come under threat.
Strategically speaking, Israel is well placed for the employment of nukes, given all of its enemies are east or north of the nation’s position, which means Israel would not have to worry about suffering from the radioactive fallout from its own weapons. But, this fallout could affect nations like Iraq and Iran, thereby giving them license to join in the war when they might otherwise abstain. Obviously this would have far reaching implications for the rest of the world, including escalation with nuclear powers such as Russia and China.
The real question is not “if” Israel would use nukes, but under what conditions? How bad does the situation have to get before a nuclear response is assured? Given the rhetoric of previous Israeli leaders on defense, it would not take much. A war on more than one front leading to an uncontrolled breach of Israel’s border could be all the excuse the country needs.
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Gonna be hilarious when one of these dupes is forced to try and fire his “nukes” and accidentally gives up the whole show when…….nothing happens.
If your existence is threatened, you have a natural right to any means of defense.
Gonna be more hilarious when it works but it isn’t a doomsday scenario and all the people with nukes realize that ‘world opinion’ isn’t going to come down on them like a ton of bricks.
If they had them they would probably use them, but they don’t so they won’t.
If they existed those psychos would have used them long ago.
short memory ?
Yep. They’re lying.
With Pakistan backing the Islamic world with their own nuclear weapons, any use of nukes by Israel assures retaliation. Israel is not stupid, they are going to back down and agree to establish a Palestinian homeland, because he surrounding countries are now the destination of millions of angry Islamic militants who want to die destroying Israel. They are in a no win situation. You can bet your ass that Xi, Putin, and Kim are shipping AK’s, SAM’s, drones, personal anti tank missiles, and lots of other goodies to Iran and Syria right now. They are hoping for a long drawn out war that will drain the resources of the US and Europe even faster than they are currently expending them. Hopefully even dig deep into their own defensive stockpiles making themselves even more vulnerable and less capable of defending themselves.
“israel is not stupid … ”
Stupidity isn’t what has given the israelis license for the past 100 years … it’s their arrogance — and the knowledge that the US will back them without limit … with the lives of our military and with the dollars of our taxpayers and the sovereignty of our Nation that has always bent to their will.
It seems like a better option than letting the Islamists of all stripes take over.
I’m pretty sure the Israelis have zero confidence of the Biden Regime actually helping them.
Maybe if they gave Hunter a big wad of cash, Joe would make a deal with them?
If their existence is threatened, they will strike first, as they have a right to do.
Hey Wide, does that same sentiment and ideology apply to Russia, in the face of NATO, the neocons, and a corrupt Ukraine, who was genociding people in the Donbass regions since 2014 after the Maidan revolution?
Notice too, that supporters of Israel and the holocaust aren’t too keen on revealing or talking about who was behind the the killing of Russian Christians prior to WWI.
“Hey Wide, does that same sentiment and ideology apply to Russia,…”.
Has someone sworn to annihilate Russia, and repeatedly attacked them?
Using threats of NATO to contain Putin’s imperial ambitions sounds like it might be a good idea.
Did the Biden crime family make Ukraine corrupt, or simply cash in on an already corrupt regime?
Are there any current governments that aren’t corrupt?
The “Palestinian Homeland will be where?
The “homeland” requires the annihilation of the Jews, because the “Palestinians” want all the material things that the Israelis have created in the former worthless other than for grazing goats land of Palestine.
And of course, if the “Palestinians” keep up their wars of aggression, “international” funds will continue to flow to them.
And just how bad would things have to get before the israeli forces bite the hand that feeds them … We The People Of The United States?
What? Why on earth would they do that when they are currently being attacked from all sides.
Maybe they will bite the hands that are feeding the people sworn to annihilate them.
Tony, what’ sup? Are you too busy to reply?
The jews cries out in pain as he hits you. Before they had a country they claimed everyone was constantly holocausting them. Not just word war 2, but going back to the 19th century. Same shit in their ancient histories.
Yes indeedy, the Jews have been persecuted for millennia all over the world.
That s pretty much why they will fight to the death to retain Israel.