US Beef Prices Hit Record High As Nation’s Cattle Herd Expected To Shrink Through 2025

Via ZeroHedge

Brazilian processor Marfrig Global Foods SA warned the US cattle herd will continue shrinking through the midpoint of the decade. Less supplies will pressure meatpackers and keep the prices of steak and hamburgers at elevated levels.

During a conference call, Tim Klein, the head of Marfrig’s North American operation, explained the availability of fattened animals for meatpackers to slaughter and process should trough between 2025 and 2026. He said this is because ranchers have not yet started keeping cows for breeding.

As we’ve noted, years of drought and high feed costs forced ranchers across the Midwest to send the cows to slaughterhouses, leading to a sharp reduction in the nation’s overall herd size. In January, the beef cow herd size was the smallest since 1962.

Tight supplies of cattle have hurt the profits of meatpackers, including Tyson Foods Inc. and JBS SA: 

National Beef Inc., Marfrig’s US unit, saw adjusted earnings before items such as taxes and interest more than halve in the third quarter from a year ago to $150 million, according to a statement from the company on Monday. Tyson Foods Inc. and JBS SA posted results earlier that were largely affected by lower profits in their US beef operations. -Bloomberg 

Declining cattle numbers also sent US beef prices at the supermarket to record highs.

Also, US beef exports are forecasted to slide 14% this year from 2022 to 3 billion pounds, the lowest since the early days of the Covid pandemic when plant closures crushed meatpackers. The USDA warned US beef production is expected to decline further next year.

Last week, Pete Bonds, a Texas-based cattle producer, told Reuters, “The future of this industry is not here in the United States.”

Food inflation remains sticky. And soon, beef will be a luxury only the rich can afford. As for the working poor, Tyson plans to build a new insect plant in 2025.

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15 Comments
Suds
Suds
November 15, 2023 7:31 am

early, 2024, anno domini…

“Use the kiosk to place your order. Credit cards only, please. No cash accepted.
Confirming…I have for you (2) ground beef Quarter Pounders, (2) large fries, and (2) super sized Cokes.
-Is your order correct on the screen? Great. Your cost is $ 23.10. Tips accepted. Insert your card now.
…Your receipt is below. Order # 666 will be ready for pick up soon.
Thank You for eating at McDogfood’s.”

Suds
Suds
  Suds
November 15, 2023 7:52 am

Maybe one solution is to acquire a taste for venison.

Today is November 15th. -Opening Day for firearms deer hunting season in many places.

In honor of a man who took plenty of large wild game with a long bow, years ago.
…a much more difficult archery tool than modern compound bows or crossbows.
Probably didn’t have broadheads back when he hunted, either.

Be sure and hear his advice, at the end of the song.

pro stoae
pro stoae
November 15, 2023 7:54 am

“high feed costs”

Cows eat grass, no?

anon a moos
anon a moos
  pro stoae
November 15, 2023 10:28 am

Theres the rub. less profit in range beef. They grow slower. Its more profitable to stack’m, pump’m with antibiotics and growth hormones, fatten them with grains and get’m to market as fast as you can. Feedlots are not your friends.

When factory farming, anything goes to get your product on the shelves. Quality doesn’t factor into the equation, price per pound does.

rhs jr
rhs jr
  pro stoae
November 15, 2023 10:52 am

My grass doesn’t grow without paying my mortgage, expensive fertilizer and dolomite, paying my property taxes, enough rain and sunshine, mowing weeds, plowing and seeding in the Fall with winter Rye, and maintaining my fences, tractor, equipment, and hundreds of dollars of diesel. Otherwise it’s free.

AnonNoMores
AnonNoMores
  rhs jr
November 16, 2023 1:19 am

Huh. Not sure if /s or not…. Rural farmers around here in Western WA do nothing of the sort. Rotate cattle once a month, spray some manure water once a year. Property taxes for sure tho.

Mary Christine
Mary Christine
  pro stoae
November 15, 2023 2:59 pm

Drought. Did you even read the first paragraph? Just drove from MO to FL and back. Took different routes each way. Hay prices have risen. It’s not good. I’m glad we just had 3 slaughtered.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Summary_anom.shtml

Montefrío
Montefrío
November 15, 2023 12:03 pm

Last week, Pete Bonds, a Texas-based cattle producer, told Reuters, “The future of this industry is not here in the United States.”

Pete may well be right. One place that may provide it a future is Argentina (world’s largest beef consumer per capita), eighth-largest country in the world in terms of land area), but with a low population density. If one strips out the three major urban areas and does the numbers, the pop. density falls between Mongolia and Libya, this in a country with a temperate climate for the most part. If Javier Milei wins the presidency on the 19th, the potential exists for policy changes that will open the door to greatly increasing the country’s agricultural and cattle raising capacity, mid-to-small size operations included.

My son owns and runs a water well drilling operation and has just done a deal with a wealthy and well-educated Taiwanese in a desertified area. He has friends who wish/plan to immigrate here as well. Client backlog is now six with numerous requests for estimates. Water, soil reclamation and proper seeding make cattle ranching possible within a few years at most. I’ve long believed the Southern Cone is the final frontier for Western civilization and have put my money where my mouth is. If Milei opens the country up to investors, reduces import problems of industrial goods and liberalizes labor laws, this could provide great opportunity to the intrepid with a bit of investment capital and a willingness to learn Spanish.

Anthony Aaron
Anthony Aaron
  Montefrío
November 15, 2023 1:09 pm

Those chinese will do to argentina what they’ve done everywhere else they’ve gone … strip out whatever value they can and then move on to the next target nation …

anon a moos
anon a moos
  Anthony Aaron
November 15, 2023 1:25 pm

I think you mean usausa… fify

Montefrío
Montefrío
  Anthony Aaron
November 16, 2023 12:06 pm

This particular group of Taiwanese is made up of Christian “End Timers”

Anonymous
Anonymous
November 15, 2023 12:42 pm
10ffgrid
10ffgrid
  Anonymous
November 15, 2023 1:22 pm

Snake River Farms

Jdog
Jdog
November 15, 2023 4:44 pm

Just shut the fuck up, and eat your bugs. You are all cowards and do not deserve to eat like free people.

Irate Nate
Irate Nate
November 16, 2023 10:16 am

Maybe we could go back to eating buffalo…oh, wait.