National Fire Sale

Guest Post by Jeff Thomas

Like waves on the ocean, countries tend to go through economic cycles.

First, we have the micro cycles, which tend to rise and fall every few years, but may last a decade or more. Then we have the macro cycles, which tend to take hundreds of years.

In a macro cycle, a nation begins to thrive economically, when the people of that country adhere to a strong work ethic. They invest their money and toil into the economy, make a profit, then either save, purchase goods, reinvest, or a combination of the three.

When the great majority of the people do this, the country thrives economically. The greater the economic freedom (i.e., the less governmental oversight and regulation), the more the country thrives.

But this never lasts forever. The eternal fly in the ointment is that governments seek continually to increase their control over others.

First, they focus on the increased control of their own people through regulations, but invariably, they see the opportunity for broader control, through the domination of other nations. They then invade those nations.

Warfare is the costliest venture that nations enter into, and as such, it’s almost always a mistake. But the zeal to have greater power often brushes that fact aside, and leaders choose to invade other nations.

In almost every instance, they fail to underestimate the resistance from the invaded nation, and very quickly, the cost of the warfare doubles and redoubles, over and over again.

Invariably, the leaders then borrow money to keep the war going. Sometimes, they achieve victory in this manner, but more often than not, they fail. They find that the day comes when they must either sell off major assets to pay their debt, or face economic collapse.

Case in point: In 1800, Spain was the dominant empire of the world, having successfully colonized South and Central America and stripped them of a fortune in gold and silver over the course of three centuries – from 1500 to 1800.

But despite this, decades of war with other European powers left Spain broke. Charles III did what leaders always do – he borrowed heavily and debased the currency. He issued fiat currency in the form of paper pesos and used this currency to fund the Spanish colony of Louisiana.

This was meant to be a temporary measure, but as time dragged on, the peso steadily lost value, then became utterly worthless.

Charles, with no economic wiggle-room left, sent the ship El Cazador to the Louisiana colony to pay off debts. Unfortunately, El Cazador sank in 1784 in a storm, taking 450,000 pesos in silver coins down with her.

When Carlos IV became king of Spain, there were few good options. Rather than give up his throne, he offered to sell Louisiana to France’s Napoleon.

Napoleon took advantage of Spain’s national fire sale and bought Louisiana for a song.

But as stated above, countries tend to rise and fall in cycles. In 1803, Napoleon found himself in similar straights, as his own warfare/debt condition was also reaching a desperate level.

Napoleon offered Louisiana to US President Thomas Jefferson, and like Napoleon, Mister Jefferson was able to pick up the one million square miles of prime real estate for a song – about three cents an acre.

So, to re-cap, the last-straw event that cost Carlos IV his empire was a simple shipwreck. The final event was minor. What really condemned Spain was warfare and debt.

The last-straw event that cost Napoleon his empire was the Battle of Waterloo. The final event was not the largest of battles. What really condemned France was warfare and debt.

Mister Jefferson was a far wiser man. Since the founding of the United States, he had continually warned against both warfare and debt. Although he twice dealt with war with Britain, he avoided military adventures – the invasion of other countries.

Similarly, he borrowed, but always judiciously and only with the ability for repayment.

Under his leadership, the US thrived and the American people reaped the benefits.

But of course, that was many micro cycles ago. The US is now at the end of its macro cycle, which can be evidenced by its involvement in what has become continual warfare. The US now invades several other countries in each presidential cycle, ensuring that, if any war winds down, there are others still steaming ahead. In recent years, the US has invaded Libya, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Kuwait and Somalia and has “assisted”, or invaded by proxy, in a host of other invasions.

In addition, threats have been issued to North Korea, Turkey, Iran, Venezuela and others that, “Military action is not off the table,” as regards future military adventures.

Along the way, warfare’s ugly twin – debt – has joined in. The US, once the world’s foremost creditor nation, is now both the world’s foremost aggressor nation and the world’s foremost debtor nation at the same time.

But the US has a problem that neither Spain nor France had in the nineteenth century. It has no colonies to peddle. The US certainly can’t offer up the Louisiana territory to other nations, to pay its unmanageable debt.

In one sense, the American people can rest easy that the US will not be selling off bits of real estate in a fire sale, when the notes come due. But unfortunately, that very fact means that the only other possible outcome – economic collapse – will occur.

At some point in the near future, America Inc. will almost certainly go bust.

But as always, the world will not come to an end. The assets and wealth of the world will simply change hands, as they have done since time immemorial.

The grand experiment that began in 1776 will come to an end, as all once-great nations do. The US will continue to exist, but as a shadow of its former self, in the manner of the failed empires before it.

When we look back, we may find that the final event that triggers collapse was in fact minor, but was the perennial “last straw.”

Editor’s Note: The amount of money the US government spends on foreign aid, wars, the so-called intelligence community, and other aspects of foreign policy is enormous and ever-growing.

It’s an established trend in motion that is accelerating, and now approaching a breaking point.

That’s precisely why bestselling author Doug Casey just released an urgent new report with his top seven predictions for what comes next. Click here to download the PDF now.

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14 Comments
ZeroZee0
ZeroZee0
November 20, 2023 7:49 pm

Dunno what happened here. Wound up with two of the same post.
Hmmmm…..

ZeroZee0
ZeroZee0
November 20, 2023 7:53 pm

“The grand experiment that began in 1776 will come to an end, as all once-great nations do. The US will continue to exist, but as a shadow of its former self, in the manner of the failed empires before it.”

Thing is, I’m not so sure that the Country couldn’t Rise Again. Just not like it HAS been for the last …. I dunno, maybe my adult lifetime? I’m not quite 60 yet, and things still did seem pretty OK when I graduated in ’83, but it was pretty obvious by my early 20’s that we were degrading morally and spiritually. The “ME” Generation and Conspicuous Consumption.

However, the portion of our Continent that we inhabit still has vast potential and natural resources. Maybe I’m being a Pollyanna, but, (at least TODAY), I still have hope for whatever comes after this next Fourth Turning. It may not be pretty, this Getting To The Other Side, but it will hopefully be a better place than where we are today.

There’ll be no place for all of the nonsense we’re witnessing in Society right now, and hopefully most of those who suffer the greatest from nonexistent “First World Problems” and Deviance will go the way of the dodo by the end of this.

BL
BL
  ZeroZee0
November 20, 2023 9:28 pm

Zero- When in the Wide, Wide World of Sports did Americans EVER ask for a empire?? Seems to me past empires ended up with spoils, such as colonies and pillaged wealth. We got bupkis, nada, nothing but the bill for mafia pillage. The mafia got the booty and we got it up the ass.

The British empire ended up with all kinds of new islands and property, all manner of wealth in the coffer. Heck, the Brits owned more real estate than anyone, and the Romans conquered land and riches.

IF we are a empire, what in the hell did we gain?Puerto Rico? Jeebus, what a bunch of grifters, the only reason we are stuck with them is because every criminality is registered in Puerto Rico.

We have been the bitch of the .001% since day one. We wuz robbed, all we got was a free vaccine and a brain dead idiot run pseudo government and the bill for the joo mafia’s illicit enterprises.

ZeroZee0
ZeroZee0
  BL
November 20, 2023 9:55 pm

BL,

I don’t believe we’ve ever BEEN an “Empire”. Our “Betters” squandered our Blood and Treasure strictly to enrich THEMSELVES, leaving US with nothing but the $33+ Trillion Dollar Bill, plus the other $100+ trillion in unfunded liabilities.

However, what Can’t Continue, WON’T. And I don’t believe that the CCP, or the OPEC Nations are going to try to come here and extract what they’re “owed” when we default and collapse economically. If they did, it’d be some costly collections.

But the reason I’m optimistic is because of my kids and grandkids. They come from a long line of Can-Do people. People who helped kick out the English, and littered the land in Pine Boxes from Upstate New York to the great Pacific Northwest, and all points in between. My progeny KNOW who they are, and have and are living up well to the Name they were gifted from their Forefathers.

And there’s millions MORE just like them spread all across this nation. They’re Salt-of-the-Earth folks, who know how to get things done.

Not everyone is going to make it through the times to come, but more of THAT caliber will than those who want to play the victim.

So that’s my “Pollyanna” speech.

Actually, I think it’s a pretty good one too.

anon a moos
anon a moos
  ZeroZee0
November 21, 2023 8:52 am

Zee, I believe this day is coming soon.

comment image

When the collapse comes all rules are off the books. The reams and reams of rules and regulations are just wet dreams for future tyrants and will have no effect at the present.

VOWG
VOWG
  anon a moos
November 21, 2023 12:17 pm

Maybe the time is approaching when good men with guns have the balls to use them in the fight to keep the people free and the country prosperous. The Second Amendment was written for just that reason.

GNL
GNL
  BL
November 20, 2023 10:52 pm

BL,

Great question. Maybe the answer(?) is 1. Being king of the hill militarily and 2. Reserve currency status enabling even the gibmedats 3 hots, a cot, an Obama phone, red lobster all-you-can eats etc?

BL
BL
  GNL
November 20, 2023 11:34 pm

Glock- Being the mafia’s private army cost us…..damn. Reserve currency status inflated our money and robbed us……damn. I never got a free phone but the folks that did cost us……damn.

If that’s your laundry list of great benefits to being the alleged empire (which we weren’t) that is pathetic. A good trashing and a free single cone from Baskin & Robbins would have topped all that easily.

GNL
GNL
  BL
November 20, 2023 11:38 pm

BL,

Maybe I made a poor attempt at saying we got a very high standard of living…for awhile, at least.

How many countries have been sending us physical goods for paper smeared with ink? Hell, we don’t even give the that anymore.

Without our military, that would have ended some time ago

BL
BL
  GNL
November 20, 2023 11:46 pm

Glock there are scads of countries with a high standard of living, we are no where near the highest income earning per capita country in the world. None of the other countries footed the bill for being organized crimes army du jour. The American taxpayer has been bent over and driven to Newark every year of their miserable f’n life and for what??

BL
BL
  BL
November 20, 2023 11:52 pm

Jeebus Glock, money printing and usury are the reason we have elevated living standards, nothing to do with empire.

EDIT: I see you edited. True, having reserve currency status does mean you don’t have to produce more than you spend.. For the most part in our lifetimes, America was manufacturing goods and getting plenty of paper smeared with ink from around the world.

VOWG
VOWG
  ZeroZee0
November 21, 2023 12:15 pm

When like minded people are no longer like minded things fall apart. Look at the invasion on the southern border and how many so called smart people support that insanity. You don’t work you don’t eat should be the motto of every country. Compassion should extend to those who are old and or infirm, not young and lazy, not third world invaders.

KaD
KaD
November 20, 2023 10:31 pm

“In one sense, the American people can rest easy that the US will not be selling off bits of real estate in a fire sale, when the notes come due.”
– Farmland to China anyone?

VOWG
VOWG
November 21, 2023 12:11 pm

Yep, get rich and lazy and everything goes for a shit. People who have been given everything usually lose everything as they have no idea what produced the wealth.