Breaking down the coming $20 trillion debt Tsunami

by Simon Black via Sovereign Man

Tony Fauci should be in a prison cell in Wuhan right now given how much responsibility he bears for destroying US government finances.

This guy was one of the chief architects of the hysteria that took over the US (and much of the world) back in 2020.

Yet he now admits, according to recent Congressional testimony, that his infamous six-foot social distancing edict “sort of just appeared” and was “not based on any data”.

But it was precisely those sorts of claims that prompted politicians to close schools and business across the country, and to pay people to stay home and NOT work.

The financial results of this insanity are clear; the US national debt increased by an unbelievable $6.5 trillion during 2020 and 2021. And while there is a lot of blame to go around– politicians had ample time to find their intellectual courage– Fauci is extremely culpable.

Now, the US fiscal situation was already in bad shape prior to 2020. I remember back in 2019, when the economy was booming and federal tax revenue was at a record high, the US national debt STILL increased by more than $1 trillion that year.

And I wrote to our readers wondering– if the United States government still manages to add $1 trillion to the national debt when everything is awesome, what’s going to happen when there’s a real emergency?

Well, Tony Fauci gave us the answer the following year.

But even now that Covid is over, government overspending is still extreme. And it’s not getting any better.

I’ve been writing about this a lot lately, but today I need to explain where this is headed, and why it’s so inflationary.

Consider that, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s own forecasts, the United States will add another TWENTY TRILLION DOLLARS to the national debt through 2033.

Now, 2033 is a REALLY important date, because it also happens to be the year that Social Security’s primary trust fund completely runs out of money.

Social Security is funded in large part by workers who contribute a portion of their paychecks into the program through the FICA/payroll tax.

Social Security uses that tax revenue to pay monthly benefits to retirees across the country. And any surplus left over is rolled into a special trust fund.

Over time, the accumulated surplus in the trust fund amounted to roughly $3 trillion dollars; and all that money was invested in interest-bearing government bonds.

Between the payroll tax contributions and the trust fund’s interest income, Social Security always ran a healthy surplus.

Until recently.

Starting in 2020, there were so many retirees receiving Social Security benefits that the program barely broke even for the year.

The following year, 2021, was even worse. Social Security ran a deficit for the first time ever and had to dip into its trust fund to make ends meet.

This trend kept up in 2022 and 2023 as well. In fact, the program loses so much money now that its trust fund is shrinking rapidly, and Social Security projects it will fully be depleted by 2033.

One of the many, many reasons this is so important is because Social Security will no longer be a BUYER of US government bonds. It will be a SELLER. And that’s a big deal.

For the past 90+ years, Social Security always invested its annual surplus into government bonds… which essentially gave politicians an extra pile of cash each year to spend.

But now this cash flow will reverse. Instead of Social Security sending its surplus to the Treasury, the Treasury Department now must repay the debt that it owes to Social Security.

This nearly $3 trillion repayment will happen gradually over the next ten years. And then, of course, in 2033, Social Security will be out of money and require a multi-trillion-dollar bailout.

Unfortunately, the Treasury Department doesn’t have the money to repay this $3 trillion debt, let alone another $5 to $10 trillion to bail out Social Security.

This means that, in addition to the $20 TRILLION in new debt that the CBO is projecting over the next ten years, the Treasury Department will have to borrow an ADDITIONAL $3 trillion to repay Social Security. And then even more to bail out the program

(So, this means that the government will need to find someone to buy $23++ trillion of government bonds over the next ten years… which is just an absurd amount of money.

And it will have to do this at a time when it has lost some of its biggest investors; again, Social Security can no longer afford to buy bonds. And many of America’s biggest foreign bondholders, including China and Japan, are also not buying any more bonds.

So, who is going to buy all this new debt?

The only realistic option is the Federal Reserve. And this is nothing new for the Fed.

During the pandemic, for example, the Fed magically created about $4 trillion in new money, then used that money to buy US government bonds.

Of course, their $4 trillion in new money also helped create the highest inflation in four decades.

So, if buying $4 trillion of government bonds led to 9% inflation, what’s going to happen when the Fed has to create $20+ trillion to buy government bonds?

And by the way, the CBO’s $20 trillion estimate on new government debt is probably a bit too optimistic. It assumes there will be no new war, no pandemic, no national emergency, and no idiotic legislation that causes even crazier spending.

If any of those were to happen over the next decade, the increase to the national debt would be even higher… meaning the Fed would have to create even MORE money.

$20+ trillion is a ton of debt. And with no other realistic option other than the Federal Reserve to buy that debt, it’s easy to make a very strong argument for substantial inflation a few years down the road.

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24 Comments
The Duke of New York
The Duke of New York
January 18, 2024 4:47 pm

The Fed has been the buyer of last resort for some time now, no one else with half a brain want’s Uncle Sugar’s worthless IOU’s.

And it’s not just retirees sucking up SS money, look at all the phony disability cases out there who get paid every month to do nothing. If I had a buck for every junkie and nere-do-well I’ve seen who collect SSI when they could be working, I’d be rich by now. Add to that the thousands per month to illegals who also have no desire to work, and no wonder the money will run out (or just get printed until it’s Zimbabwe’d to nothing).

Stop the handouts for all the grifters, very few people on welfare and SSI, etc. actually deserve that money or couldn’t get by without it.

Like Kant said, “If the truth shall kill them, let them die”.

Couldn’t agree more.

Cpt_Obviuos
Cpt_Obviuos
  The Duke of New York
January 18, 2024 5:43 pm

Stopping the handouts is all part of the plan. There’s no way it was ever meant to be anything other.

Allowing all these illegals in here, giving them the Red (as in Communist) Carpet treatment, then tanking the economy and pulling the carpet out from under their feet: instant insurrection. These ferals will attack, rob and kill, just like they do in their own shithole countries, until the government declares a State of Emergency and sends in the troops, out of desperation.

Still think we’re going to have an election in November?

Travis Bickle
Travis Bickle
  Cpt_Obviuos
January 18, 2024 5:57 pm

That might be an issue for the blue meanies, but in the redder parts of the country that just means the pigs and wood chippers will eat well for a while.

comment image

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Travis Bickle
January 18, 2024 6:31 pm

Paint blackface on Tony’s mug and let the KKK know where he beds down.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Anonymous
January 18, 2024 6:47 pm

How is that little turd still alive?

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Anonymous
January 18, 2024 7:45 pm

The little turd is alive and doing very well, thank you. Make that extremely well. And in addition to being a well-off turd, he’s also a well-protected turd, both in the media and a literal sense. He’s been a consummate insider for decades from his perch in the govt health services and has been richly rewarded by his paymasters in the pharmaceutical industry. I’m not a very spiritual person, but in the case of people like the little turd, I hope there is some sort of eternal reward for our earthly activities. Few are more deserving

Iska Waran
Iska Waran
January 18, 2024 5:10 pm

It looks like 2023 total “Social insurance and retirement receipts” were ~ $1.6 Trillion in fiscal 2023. Total Social Security outlays were about $1.4 T. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1829 That must be missing something, because I thought we were already running negative in real-time.

I’m all for paring back SSDI in some cases, but I’d also like to see the Pentagram budget cut by ~ 50%. If they want to “bring democracy” to some distant country, let them hold a bake sale.

Of course, the only thing more sacrosanct than “defense” spending is funding for Israel.

pyrrhus
pyrrhus
January 18, 2024 5:32 pm

Simon, with 34 trillion in debt currently, much of which will have to be rolled over, we are looking at much more than a tsunami…And SS is not the problem, medicare and medicaid are the main problem, followed by the Defense/intelligence….

Merle
Merle
  pyrrhus
January 18, 2024 6:32 pm

How ’bout all the illegals lining up to get their ticket for the Gravy Train?

B_MC
B_MC
January 18, 2024 5:45 pm

As we kick off 2024, the US has already added another ~$200 billion in Federal debt over the last 3 weeks.

This puts annual interest expense on track to hit $1.05 trillion.

To put this in perspective, annual interest expense was less than $500 billion just TWO YEARS ago.

As interest rates rise and deficit spending soars, interest expense is becoming one of our largest costs.

comment image

https://nitter.poast.org/KobeissiLetter/status/1748086704467042394#m

Anonymous
Anonymous
  B_MC
January 18, 2024 8:49 pm

What is the dollar total of the retirement accounts owed to all the now dead dermal bypass peeps?
If hundreds of millions ultimately die, the dollar amounts in these accounts, could be trillions.

Aunt Acid
Aunt Acid
January 18, 2024 6:49 pm

Serfs up!

Archie Phoenix
Archie Phoenix
January 18, 2024 7:30 pm

Imagine thinking that the debt matters. Has this author not learned anything?

Taxes are just a means to control the populace and incentivize and disincentivize them. There is no ‘need’ for taxes since the money can simply be created out of thin air.

And like taxes, the national ‘debt’ is just a way to control nations and terrify its populace, especially when they’ve been raised to believe the propaganda they’ve been taught their whole lives.

National debt is a hobgoblin the Banking System creates to convince the Muppets that their fiat “money” is real and that “Muh borrowed money” has to be paid back – or else!

It doesn’t. My German Uncle demonstrated that quite well. It’s all imaginary and smoke and mirrors- like everything else that makes up the economy currently.

It’s another tool to produce fear and constrain thought.

Henry Ford knew.

GNL
GNL
  Archie Phoenix
January 18, 2024 9:17 pm

Bingo. Glad to see you commenting again.

Leah
Leah
  Archie Phoenix
January 18, 2024 10:30 pm

Yes

Nonanomymous
Nonanomymous
  Archie Phoenix
January 19, 2024 5:10 am

It doesn’t matter until it does. The very real part is the interest paid on the hobgoblin. If it increases faster than GDP, and it is, then it consumes more of national spending, meaning less into the economy, which grinds to a halt.

What is needed is less reliance on government spending, and what are all these millions who survive on govt handouts going to do?

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Archie Phoenix
January 19, 2024 10:54 pm

That’s what CBDCs are for. It’s all just numbers on a screen. And, they only have to show you what they want to see. All the rest can be hidden like a giant turd in a cat box covered up by kitty litter.

YourAverageJoe
YourAverageJoe
January 18, 2024 7:41 pm

That We are all fucked is baked in the cake…
A trillion is an impossible amount to overcome, but Our ears and Eyes see We are well beyond all that…….
Again, We are All fucked. It’s just a matter of time for the wheels to fall off.
Ammo up!

Anonymous
Anonymous
January 18, 2024 8:46 pm

“Malicious Actors Corp” is a terrorist actor resource. Do you need to sell gun control with a mass terrorist attack?
See our success starting war with Spain, Germany, and Vietnam through Desert Storms and beyond!
We provide all planning and logistics.
We even have close working relationships with all the major networks!
Just like your government!

So, when you need political cover or a reason to bomb anyone, anywhere, anytime….turn to “Malicious Actors Corp” for all your false flag needs!

Anonymous
Anonymous
January 18, 2024 10:39 pm

When the SHTF Fauci’s shelf life is about one second longer than Billy Gates…

Nonanomymous
Nonanomymous
  Anonymous
January 19, 2024 5:14 am

they’ll both be in an underground, or above ground, bunker which you won’t even be able to find, along with all their other billionaire friends. THEY all have escape plans.

it won’t take long for martial law to be declared, to keep the masses from descending on DC and any other bunkers.

VOWG
VOWG
  Nonanomymous
January 19, 2024 7:31 am

Hmmm, America could not defeat tribal Afghans in 20 years, do you think that white well armed Americans are not able to hunt down their tormentors if they really want to. Martial law would rapidly turn into civil war.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Nonanomymous
January 19, 2024 11:43 pm

Obviously a modern Tory…

TN Patriot
TN Patriot
January 19, 2024 12:00 pm

Now, 2033 is a REALLY important date, because it also happens to be the year that Social Security’s primary trust fund completely runs out of money.

The “SS Trust Fund” contains nothing but IOU’s from the government to the government. To redeem them, the government will “borrow” the funds from various sources, primarily “The Fed”, growing our debt exponentially. Between now and 2033, .gov will have to borrow much of the money that will be paid out to SS recipients. Maybe that is why they are so interested in reducing population, especially older folks and those nearing retirement age.