Guest Post by Moon of Alabama
A former U.S. Colonel opines in The Hill:
Ukraine can no longer win – The Hill, Feb 22 2024
Welcome to the club, I’d say, but its nearly two years to late for that. Ukraine lost the war on February 24 2022, the day the Special Military operation had started.
There never was a chance for Ukraine to win.
I will first let the Colonel recap the established narrative to then add my observations to it:
Two years ago, the Ukrainian Armed Forces defied expectations immediately. Days before Russia’s massive combined arms incursion, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley spoke for the U.S. military when he predicted to Congress that Kyiv would fall within 72 hours.Many military analysts similarly predicted the Russian Armed Forces would quickly rout the overmatched Ukrainians. American leaders encouraged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to leave the country, lest Russian troops assassinate him.
These projections of immediate success for Russia misread the progress Ukraine had made in capability and readiness since Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. They also overestimated the Russian forces’ readiness, air superiority, and command cohesion.
That is all – somewhat – true.
There were expectations that the Russian forces would quickly conquer Kiev and overthrow the sitting government. However, the Russians never applied the necessary manpower to do so. Pacifying and holding an enemy city in modern times generally requires abound 1 soldier per 40 inhabitants. When the war started Kiev had about 3 million inhabitants. Taking and holding the city would have required some 75,000 troops. But the Russian forces never deployed more than 40,000 troops into the general direction of Kiev.
Thus the military aim was not to take the city. It was to apply pressure to achieve a political aim.
Immediately after the war had begun the Ukrainian government had agreed to hold peace talks. Over the next weeks these were held first in Belarus and later in Istanbul. In late March, after Ukraine had agreed during the negotiations to not join NATO, Russia made the good will gesture of pulling its troops back from the capitol. But in early April the U.S. and UK intervened and pressed Kiev to abolish negotiations.
The western political and military leadership had simply misread the Russian aim, thought its military was weak and had come to the wrong conclusions.
That also happened in the following phase:
One year ago, all signs were encouraging. Ukrainian forces had been bloodied, but they held on to territory in the east in defiance of expectations. Successful counteroffensives allowed Ukraine to regain territory in the south. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy defiantly declared the coming year one of “our invincibility.” American aid to the country offered a king’s ransom in artillery and anti-tank weapons through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, and the flow seemed unceasing.Inspired by Ukraine’s stunning success against the much larger and more advanced military, the West galvanized behind Zelensky and his troops. Tragically, all these indicators led to unrealistic expectations.
Russia has started the war with its military structured in peace-time formations. It had only used its standing forces, not any conscripts or mobilized troops, to launch the Ukraine campaign. The main organizational structure of Russian troops at that time were the Battalion Tactical Groups.
Excursus: During Soviet times the military had the classic war-time structure of Divisions with 4 to 5 Brigades each of which each had 4 to 5 Battalions each of which had four to five Companies. Such structures require lots of people.
To save money Russia did away with the Division layer. The Motorized Infantry Brigades, consisting of one tank Battalion, two motorized infantry Battalions and two artillery Battalions, were shrunken into Battalion Tactical Groups.
About a third of the artillery and tanks formations were eliminated as well as half of infantry. Instead of some 4.000-4.500 soldiers in a Brigade formations the Battalion Tactical Groups had each kept only 2,000 men. The no longer manned and needed equipment was put into storage.
The peace construct of a Battalion Tactical Group was a lot cheaper than the people intensive Brigade structure but still had about 2/3rd of the original fire power. The idea had always been that, should a war happen, the BTG structure would be re-filled with mobilized men and restored equipment to again become a full-sized brigade. – End Excursus
It was not until August 2022, after the failure of another round of negotiations, that the Russian leadership decided to go on war footage. A mobilization was launched, equipment was pulled from storage and peacetime BTG formations were revived into full Brigade structures. The Division command layer was reestablished. All this required time and retraining. The war industry had to be set up to support a longer fight.
There is a saying: “The Russians are slow to saddle but ride fast.” It can be applied here.
During 2022 to early 2023 the sparse Russian forces were required to use economy of force. Positions of less value were guarded by a minimum of forces (Kharkiv, Kherson). When those forces came under pressure the positions were simply given up. Defensive lines were build to guard more valuable ground.
By spring to summer 2023 the Russian forces had (re-)grown to full war power. The systematic destruction of the Ukrainian forces could finally begin.
As soon as the Ukrainian forces tried to challenge the revived Russian formations, most famously in their failed ‘counter offensive, the got beaten the hell out of themselves. Pressed to produced more gains the political leadership of Ukraine demanded that its troops attack everywhere and never retreat.
That fitted the political Russian aim of demilitarizing Ukraine. Defending from well dug positions and with an increasing advantage of artillery and air power the Russian forces decimated attacking Ukrainian forces.
At the end of last year the Ukrainian military started to change its tactic. For a lack of forces and material it had to go into a defensive mode. The Russian forces, now fully equipped and battle ready, started their offensive campaign:
Today, the situation is grim. The fighting has slowed to a cruel slog that works to Russia’s favor. Ukraine runs low on troops and munitions, while Russia maintains both in plenty. The long-planned, high-risk, months-long Ukrainian spring 2023 counteroffensive failed, with Ukraine unable to regain territory seized by Russia. Support for Zelensky in Ukraine and the West has finally slipped. American aid is logjammed in Congress, and the U.S. seems tired of funding the war.Over much of the past two years, following those predictions of immediate Russian victory, analysts and policymakers have gone in the other direction with a new set of misjudgments: that the Russian Army is a paper tiger; that the generals will turn on Putin; that Ukraine will bleed Russia out in Donbass.
The reality, two years in, is that there is no path to victory for Ukraine, at least not in the sense of pushing Russian troops back to 2021 lines of control. After Ukrainian troops abandoned Avdiivka following some of the war’s heaviest fighting — the most significant loss or gain by either side in nine months — almost all advantages accrue to Russia.
War, as seen by the Russians, is a slow process that requires that all elements, political, civilian and military, are synchronized. In that view winning this or that battle does not matter much. It is the long term approach that makes the difference. It takes time to achieve the steady state that over time creates victory. Only when that state is achieved can the real destruction of the enemy begin.
Russian forces are currently attacking in all directions. The Ukrainian forces lack personnel as well as munitions. It is only a question of time until the Ukraine has to give up and to seek peace under whatever unfavorable condition.
There never really was, and is no longer a way, to change that path.
The $60 billion aid package held up in Congress will not significantly change the future. This fight is a long haul one that will require additional aid. The spigot will close at some point — perhaps soon — turning off aid and sealing Ukraine’s fate.
The endgame in Ukraine is approaching fast. It may indeed come much sooner than many are today willing to admit.
It is my sincere desire to provide readers of this site with the best unbiased information available, and a forum where it can be discussed openly, as our Founders intended. But it is not easy nor inexpensive to do so, especially when those who wish to prevent us from making the truth known, attack us without mercy on all fronts on a daily basis. So each time you visit the site, I would ask that you consider the value that you receive and have received from The Burning Platform and the community of which you are a vital part. I can't do it all alone, and I need your help and support to keep it alive. Please consider contributing an amount commensurate to the value that you receive from this site and community, or even by becoming a sustaining supporter through periodic contributions. [Burning Platform LLC - PO Box 1520 Kulpsville, PA 19443] or Paypal
-----------------------------------------------------
To donate via Stripe, click here.
-----------------------------------------------------
Use promo code ILMF2, and save up to 66% on all MyPillow purchases. (The Burning Platform benefits when you use this promo code.)
VietAfghanisKraine
War makes/is a racket.
The grift will end for the pols and MIC. The end game for NATO, EU and GAE continues.
I don’t see the neo-cons giving up. They will manufacture a FF to create a reason to start engaging Russia. They are insanely single minded in this matter.
They are installing all these trade routes to the markets being flooded with immi parasites.
What’s the long range plan?
Those markets will all be dead soon.
Does the phrase “mules” mean anything to you? How bout “Trojan horses”?
Well then, you’re seeing things pretty damned accurately. Losing was always the goal. And as usual, WE DIDN’T get a vote.
It was all a bad idea that started in 2014. It all looks like a way to launder money. Ukraine is a black hole for corruption. Plus we get to support Nazis. The U.S. are the baddies.
“Ukraine is a black hole for corruption”
name one country that isn’t
Ya cant spell country without “cunt”
The media whores are such a joke also. I followed some links on the fall of Avdiikva and also looked at headlines from WaPo, NYT etc and you would have thought Russia lost the battle. They spin it into “tens of thousands lost Russian military and hundreds of armored units” when Russia literally bombed the chit out of the Ukranians for weeks, surrounded them and left a narrow corridor for some Ukraine forces to flee through before occupying the city and raising Russian flags.
Over 1000 Ukranian soldiers were captured but they showed pictures of ” 5 soldiers captured were assassinated by Russians” a city of large size and they state, “Russians killed 59 civilians”.. such total nonsense. They have twisted Russia’s efforts to minimize destruction and civilian deaths as military weakness-Russia could STILL end this quickly if they chose to and just use a scorched earth assault ( and it wouldn’t take nukes for them to destroy Kyiv and Odessa etc in a single day. Hypersonic the power grids and water tx plants, take out every major bridge/supply route through western Ukraine and decimate their energy supplies–have no doubt, they could do this almost overnight if they were not showing restraint.
These MSM reporters have blood on their hands– they try and spin these massive Ukraine losses into victories somehow to justify continuation of war and denouncing efforts at peaceful negotiation to end the death and destruction. I LOATHE these soft assholes with their moisturized effeminate fingers typing words to the idiot masses to support continued slaughter and bloodshed.
These are people’s wives, husbands and children, generational homes and businesses, heritage and posterity of generations being destroyed– but they get their paychecks to propagandize continued work for Thanatos.. fuck them all.
There is one way for Ukraine to win, at least in the sense of maintaining itself as an autonomous nation. They can prevail if they copy those other sure losers of history, the Viet Cong and the Afghanis. Neither of those backwards countries has any chance against the rich, populous US or even the Red Army. But, they outlasted both. Russia, even by conservative estimates has lost as many KIAs in two years as the US lost in Viet Naam in 10. Eventually, the countries with no existential risk will prevail if they can keep fighting and killing. The Russians have an almost insurmountable task if the Ukrainians continue to fight. Even if the Russians win in a conventional sense, they have managed to turn Ukrainian hatred from a warm glow into a white hot blow torch. If the Russians can conquer the whole of Ukraine with three only times 300,000 dead, how long will Russian women tolerate a guerilla war with no end in sight?
Your comment sounds more like Doctor Jekyll… Chip
The war is all fake and gay. And you are gay if you war game this fake war from your couch.
Victori just told you one of the main reasons for the war- all wars, all foreign aid- was the grift. She is a lying cunt but believe her on this.
How many Russians have died compared to their Afghanistan?
you cia bots are pathetic. russia’s momentum is accelerating. they were always killing nazis at 7-10:1 ratio and the ratio is only increasing in russia’s favor. less munitions for the jukrainians means fewer russian dead, and even greater concentration of forces against the jewish nazis.
the russians have no insurmountable odds. russia is at least 3x the size of jukraine and many more times richer. the nazis cannot continue to fight. their munitions and manpower are dwindling fast and only accelerating with such diminutions.
a differential equation will handily defeat the imbecility of your comments.
your arguments are so fucktarded you should reduce your carbon footprint.
Welcome to the USSA. We have traded places with the 1980’s USSR… Chip
This is not about Ukraine winning. This is either about weakening Russia, or, possibly, about weakening the US MIC. Time will tell.
the gambit failed. russia has only strengthened. the sanctions have forced russia to become much more self reliant. the war footing and caused its mic to explode. their rich resources are practically inexhaustible. jukraine population is shrinking – fleeing to more stable lands. stupid fucks like you should compare the populations and gdp of the two nations before drooling your ignorant stupid fuck nonsense.
Wait a second. Washington wouldn’t let KEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEV keep their peace deal with the Kremlin.
The one that involved Russia leaving all of Ukraine intact.
So how did the SMO ‘police action’ defeat jewkraine from day one?
not a single dollar should have ever been sent to jukraine. that vile jewish nazi nation should be terminated. i would love to see jewlensky’s corpse floating down the dneiper.
“jewish nazi”
Jazi
Gosh
Since Ukraine couldn’t get the job done , perhaps now NATO will enlist the Finns & Swedes to close in the northern flank- and really show those rooskies a thing or two!!
Oh wait, uh, what’s that you say?
Something about tiny northern armies ?
NATO cupboards are looking a bit barren …
Bring on the F-16s!!!
We shall finally get to see the dogfights to prove air supremacy.
Time to short Lockheed?
Russia will not make this mistake again, it will give early warning and then it will hit Hard.
the Cookie Monster said what few Americans Know, it is a job creation program and a million dead Ukrainians and Russian troops do Not Matter !
F%$K this place called America, it has become hated amongst even Americans.
You need to remove that which makes you Unclean before God and his commandments and Yes they even want those gone along with your Constitution. Evil has a name, and it is to your shame!
The war will be over when the pols find a new country to launder money, the Ukraine’s only function.
“They NEVER had a chance”
Which is WHY Putin can treat this political raping like a Sunday picnic. He knows he has all the time in the world to get it done right and come out smelling relatively like a rose. He can AFFORD to be cautious. He’s holding all the cards!
The Pentagon can not win a war because they think everyone thinks the way they do.
Whoever compose their war exercises have never been anywhere except in Western think tanks, and they have no conception of culture or ethics. They went to Smash and Grab U and slipped through with a D- avg.