Eventful 24 Hours: Moscow Terror Attack Follows Massive UA Grid Strikes

Guest Post by Simplicius The Thinker

Let’s begin with the tragic event that has eclipsed everything else: a large terrorist attack on a packed Friday night shopping center at the outskirts of Moscow. But while there are many dead, and the event is clearly momentous, there is actually not much of substance to be said on it yet, without rehashing the same baseless gun-jumping discussions from Twitter and elsewhere.

There’s simply too little solid verifiable information, so we’ll only gloss it over for now, and tie it into events on the ground in Ukraine at the end.

The more directly salient events occurred last night, when Russia launched one of the larger and more impactful strikes of the war, hitting numerous Ukrainian hydro-electric power plants, including the big one in Dnipro—one of the largest in Europe—Zaporozhye, and a plant in Kharkov, as well as dozens of other military production sites in Kiev and west Ukraine.

You can see the Kh-101 missiles spitting their trademark countermeasures as they slam into Dnipro HPP:

Dnipro HPP machine/engine room:

The city of Kharkov was said to be entirely de-energized and even Ukrainian figures again confessed that little of the strikes was actually stopped by AD:

Zaporozhye NPP plant:

All the top pro-Ukrainian pundits were of course freaking out as usual:

The important question revolves around why these sudden attacks?

There are a few possibilities:

1. It’s merely part of the pre-planned campaign to degrade Ukraine’s infrastructure, particularly in advance of a planned larger Spring military campaign. The attacks’ association with Ukraine’s recent provocations, i.e. terror strikes on Belgorod, are merely coincidental.

2. The strikes are a direct response to Ukraine’s recent provocations, including targeting of Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure, terrorist actions against Belgorod region, etc. This is Putin’s way of signaling to Ukraine that they’ve crossed a red line.

3. Or a combination of the two.

One of the reasons for the third option being most likely is that it’s very plausible that Russia was forced by political necessities to make at least some kind of show of repaying all the recent criminal actions of the Kiev regime.

However, at the same time, there are increasing reports about various Russian mass buildups and preparations for a large offensive later this year. One of the interesting little mentioned aspects is that—if you’ll recall—both before and after Kakhovka dam was destroyed, Ukraine played water level games with the Dnipro dam, by opening the sluices to further exacerbate the flooding and destroy Russian positions all along the Dnieper River.

I reported on it at the time:

Note Shoigu’s statement at the time about the Dnipro dam:

What is my point? That even without the functioning Kakhovka Dam to control Dnieper River water levels, Ukraine still retained an ability to do that with the other dams upriver, like this Dnipro one. That means, we can surmise that Russia’s disabling of the Dnipro dam could potentially have something to do with taking away Kiev’s abilities to mess with the Dnieper River water levels.

Why would Russia want to do that?

Logic would suggest one possibility being that Russia intends to cross the river, and doesn’t want Kiev to have any further abilities to ‘flood them out’ and destroy supply lines.

Recall that the current locus of the conflict revolves around Odessa: there is a race to the city, with NATO now licking its chops to capture it. Macron has even reportedly made a new statement that Ukraine could “collapse very quickly”, which answers one of the questions I posed in the last report about why the sudden urgency:

And Ukrainian Rada Deputy Goncharenko made the most official admission of potential NATO involvement when he posted that, while in Paris, he had meetings specifically about a French military contingent potentially being sent to Ukraine:

He even specified what the purpose of the troops could be, which is exactly what we projected last time:

This was followed by Orban indicating the possibility that France/NATO could send troops in 2-3 months’ time:

Though I must say the above is somewhat taken out of context and sensationalized, because Orban was merely rhetorically remarking that it “wouldn’t surprise him” if that happened rather than implying some confirmed information. Similarly, anything told to Goncharenko will have been morale-boosting wishful thinking meant to convey ‘European strength’ and ‘solidarity’.

But to get back to the point at hand: Given that there’s even a potential for NATO involvement in the semi-near future, Russia could be poised to attempt an assault toward Odessa via the river, as outlined earlier.

I have vehemently called this impossible before—and I stand by my earlier assessments. The likelihood of a cross-river assault is very low, but I’m merely posing the possibilities for why Russia felt the need to hit the dam. You may say: well, they hit other plants so the strikes were likely aimed at degrading the electric grid. But a wrinkle: Russia hit both the engine room of the DniproHES and the cranes which open and lower the sluice gates. If they wanted to merely knock out its power generation, the turbines would presumably suffice. But why hit the cranes that open the sluice gates to control water levels too? True, they could merely have been ‘thorough’.

But recall: the Soviets did manage to successfully cross the Dnieper in WWII, in 1943’s ‘Battle of Dnieper’.

So it is possible, or was once—but under modern conditions of enemy ISR and long range precision strikes, like those of HIMARs, etc., it’s not likely.

However:

1. Ukraine’s precision strike systems are being heavily attritioned now, HIMARS have been recently struck multiple times as Russia’s own ISR capabilities are said to be massively ramping up with new satellites, mass use of drones and UMPK glide-bombs, streamlined/optimized kill chains, etc.
2. I’m not sure what the water level is currently, but if the levels are still low or nonexistent in places due to the Kakhovka dam destruction, then it could make such crossings more plausible.
3. Historic depletion of Ukraine’s artillery munitions could allow acceptable counterfire levels for such a foray.

Like I said, I still view it as highly unlikely—for now—but it’s a possibility worth enumerating for the sake of discussion. We already know Russian command is adverse to losses and retreated from Kherson-side entirely just owing to the remote possibility of being stranded there with pontoon and logistics lines taken out. However, the fact that NATO’s intentions to take the city have now become crystalized could result in Russian command taking the chance to accelerate Odessa’s capture, rather than waiting for the full surrender of the AFU as I had expected would be the case.

Recall that the French military officials themselves showed a map with French troops guarding the Dnieper specifically, as one of the possibilities for their usage. And Goncharenko confirmed this above, stating the Dnieper is one of the considered placements for French troops. Why would that be?

Further recall Macron’s earlier words: the AFU may face a rapid or sudden ‘collapse’. Maybe Russia is laying the ground for a potential lightning offensive across the Dnieper. This is further supported by the fact that Shoigu just announced the creation of a new Dnepr Flotilla and new Zaporozhye formations:

RUSSIA TAKES CHARGE OF DNIEPER RIVER (which divides Ukraine into East and West) – Defense Minister Shoigu.

Russian forces have created a Dnieper River Flotilla, an army corps, a motorized rifle division and a brigade of river boats – Shoigu in top vid.

This comes after news a few months ago:

So, Russia is creating special river crossing divisions in the marine corps, as well as a new Dnepr Flotilla, all before blowing the largest dam on the river. It could all be merely perfunctory strengthening of forces and a campaign of methodical infrastructure degradation, or the precursor for some kind of planned escalation across the river.

—

Now, the second biggest matter.

Financial Times stunned the world with this report at the time of the Russian strikes last night:

Apparently the White House was ‘increasingly frustrated’ by Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, owing to what many suspected was the following explanation:

I have a somewhat different take on it.

Firstly, as many have pointed out, hitting Russian refineries doesn’t really affect oil deliveries or prices that much. That’s because refineries are processing Russia’s crude into usable gasoline style products mostly for Russia’s own domestic consumption. The product which gets exported to world markets is just the crude itself, and that is delivered by pipeline to the export nodes, whether they’re seaports, or directly to the receiving countries like the famous Druzhba pipeline which runs through Ukraine, Belarus, Slovakia, Austria, Poland, Hungary, etc. Thus, Ukraine isn’t hurting Russia’s crude exports.

In fact, some contend it’s quite the opposite:

Russia is apparently making more money after the oil refinery attacks.

No, the likelier explanation behind the warnings is that the U.S. knew Russia was on the verge of a massive retaliatory attack and the Biden administration is desperately trying to keep Ukraine from being “finished off” by a vengeful, ‘no more Mr. Nice Guy’ version of Putin. The blistering nature of last night’s attacks once more proved that Russia has continued fighting with velvet gloves, and could, if it chooses, take the ‘war’ to a whole ‘nother level.

Biden is desperate to keep Russia from escalating too much as the administration is scrambling to keep Ukraine from total collapse right on the eve of elections. They would much rather either the war fall into some kind of stalemate simmer phase and get swept under the rug, or that Ukraine be convinced to settle the conflict for now in a way that could be portrayed as a victory for Biden.

We’ve covered this before, but to reiterate: how can they portray the seemingly catastrophic situation as a ‘victory’? Easy. They’ve now drummed up the fear that Russia was set to conquer all of Europe all along, likely convincing their gormless constituency of this ludicrous ‘fact’. Thus, by freezing the conflict at the DMZ line they can proclaim: “See, we stopped the madman Putin from taking over the world! Our combined efforts equipped the heroic AFU with the capability it needed to stop this unprecedented historic-level lethal force dead in its tracks. If it weren’t for our efforts, Putin’s blood-soaked flag would be hanging from the Eiffel Tower, the Reichstag, maybe even from Westminster Palace. This victory is a testament to the solidarity of Europe and the Western world, and the Biden administration’s unflagging determination for Peace, Freedom, and Prosperity of the Rules Based Order.”

But what the Biden admin doesn’t want is for Putin to go “gloves off” and turn Ukraine into a giant skidmark on the eve of what could be a historically catastrophic election for the Democrats.

It’s the age old ‘Escalation Management’ at play.

Rezident UA:

#Inside
Our source in the OP said that British intelligence recommends the Office of the President to stop the ground attacks of the GUR and the RDK on the border, and the SBU to stop the special operations inside Russia.

Unfortunately, they may have been too late, as Peskov has apparently let the cat out of the bag last night, seemingly inaugurating Russia’s new posture toward the conflict when he announced that this is no longer a Special Military Operation, but is now a proper War:

 

Here’s the actual clip:

He was followed soon after by Rogozin:

Euro-technocrat, President of the European Council, Charles Michel chimed in, using Peskov’s quote as an act of self-confirmation bias for his warped globalist agenda:

Naturally, many are making a big deal out of this. Some even believe Putin will soon “declare war”—as always—on Ukraine, because now that his election is over, and his six years’ rule solidified, he can act with a “free hand” and really ratchet up the war without fear of political repercussions. That could be, or it may very well be Peskov putting his foot in his mouth again.

Personally, I’m skeptical that it will result in any large scale posture changes any time soon, mostly because if Russia had the capability to take the war to a much higher kinetic posture they likely would have already. In reality, Russia is still operating hand-to-mouth with much of its rearmament and cannot just snap its fingers and magically turn it into Operation Bagration. Shoigu’s newly created 500k+ man army needs to be fully armed, which is quite a tall order. Russia struggled just arming the first 500k force over the past two years, now the reserve army needs heavy weapons too.

Can Russia utilize all or part of this reserve army to swamp Ukraine and quickly end the war? Perhaps—but it appears a dangerous proposition as founding purpose of the army was to backstop any NATO ‘surprise attacks’ on Russia’s weakened flanks. To get the second army bogged down would be a critical and existential risk, as Russia would have nothing left to defend against a NATO surprise attack along its western and northern borders.

That being said, there are rumors like the following from just today:

Some Russian 5th column outlet called Vertska reports that now that the elections are done, Russia is looking to mobilize an additional 300k-man force for the express purpose of capturing Kharkov:

In the near future, the Russian army plans to recruit at least 300 thousand people — all of them will have to go to war with Ukraine. Four interlocutors in the presidential administration and regional governments, as well as a high-ranking employee of the Ministry of Defense, told Verstka about this at once.

They claim the plan is to ‘encircle’ the city, rather than take it head on like Mariupol. It calls for a huge grain of salt as this is a virulently anti-Russian outlet, but it’s something to take note of, particularly given that Putin himself recently again announced that Russia may have to clear a buffer zone on the border. In fact, at the same public forum, someone specifically asked him about taking Kharkov, to which Putin demurred but did not rule it out, answering that it’s something that will have to be looked at and considered in the future.

One thing that is certain, is that given all the recent events, coupled with today’s terror attacks, Russian politicians are becoming increasingly bellicose and irreverent when it comes to respecting previous European “partners”.

Pyotr Tolstoy, who’s the Deputy Chairman of the Duma, one of its most powerful members, just unleashed this blistering attack on Macron, and in French, no less:

He states that Russia will specifically target and destroy all French military if they should arrive in Ukraine. This echoes Peskov who also added that beyond retaking the 4 new Russian regions (LPR, DPR, Zaporozhye, Kherson), Russia “cannot allow” the Ukrainian regime to exist on its doorstep.

To finish by bringing it around full circle:

What was the point of the Moscow terror attack and who was responsible?

Rezident UA channel summarized it best, which I agree with:

We explain:
1. The same meaning as from chaotic strikes on Belgorod
2. The same meaning as from the attack on the territory of Russia, which was organized by the RDK / GUR and the Armed Forces of Ukraine
3. The same meaning as from the bombings of journalists, bloggers, activists who support Putin / Kremlin.

The point is to intimidate, sow panic in the country, catch fear, damage the internal economy of the Russian Federation, which now works as a watch, although maximum world sanctions have been imposed against it in history. Also make a divorce within the Russian Federation, accusing Putin of a terrorist attack (to sow doubts within Russian society).

It’s really that simple: take attention away from Ukraine’s staggering losses, sow confusion and resentment against the leadership within Russian society, and perhaps most importantly: try to unbalance Putin into ‘over-reacting’ and creating some kind of retaliatory event that can be sold to Europe/NATO as a grave enough ‘Russian aggression’ necessitating French/NATO intervention, to save Zelensky’s ass.

As for who was responsible? It’s still unknown as of this writing, but there have been some rumors:

Russian newspaper Kommersant, citing sources, claims that the attackers may have been wearing fake beards and mustaches, and they’re pointing to them belonging to the Ukrainian-backed Russian Volunteer Corps

If that turns out to be the case, then we can potentially expect some kind of response at the border, but I still doubt there will be anything major in the near future even in spite of Peskov’s ‘promotion’ of the conflict to a full scale ‘war’. As I said, this isn’t a political decision, it’s merely military-technical-logistical realities and limitations. In that respect, Shoigu commands the field, not Putin. But I always leave the door open to the possibility that we don’t know the full extent of Russia’s force and materiel disposition.

Shoigu just visited Arsenal 53 munitions plant showcasing the new Fab-3000 production line:

As I wrote on X:

Fab-3000s (3000 kilograms) are coming in full force next. Russian airforce is slowly turning the screws on AFU. Each successive power increase of Fab requires dropping them closer and closer to the frontline as they have less gliding range due to their weight. That means as each new successive power increase is announced, it marks the critical depletion of Ukraine’s frontline air defense. When they announce Fab-9000s going to full scale, then you’ll know AFU’s frontline AD is totally done. But the Fab-3000s alone will pack an incredible, mind-numbing punch.

One way or another, things definitely feel like a corner has been turned recently, and the conflict is entering a new more dangerous phase. Recall that the last American military aid disbursement to Ukraine was in October, which is now coming up on almost six months soon. This explains the dire shape Ukraine is in and how desperate the West is becoming to save them. This is why rumors of French troops in the next “two months” abound, because as soon as Rasputitsa wears off in April/May, Russia could begin a powerful campaign of offensives which could totally break the AFU’s back, forcing NATO to strongly consider intervening. There have been reports that Russia is heavily stockpiling missiles for this, as it has launched relatively few large scale attacks, particularly ones utilizing Kalibr missiles, whose stocks should be swelling by now.

Lastly:

Yaroslav Dronov, better known as Shaman, has pledged to pay not only for every single funeral of today’s terror attack victims, but even for the rehabilitation of all the wounded:

It’s times like these which separate the ‘liberals’ from the patriots and will further solidify Russia’s patriotic core.

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