The Conflict in Ukraine: How Do Matters Stand?

Guest Post by Paul Craig Roberts

I have tried to provide accurate analysis of the conflict in Ukraine. This is not a simple task as there is little publicly available information about how the Kremlin sees the widening of the conflict. France has sent troops. The US Secretary of Defense said that eventually NATO troops will be deployed to Ukraine, and European governments are preparing for war with Russia in 4 or 5 years.

Putin’s original goals were the liberation of the Donbas region, and denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine. How denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine were to be accomplished without the conquest of Ukraine was never clear.

The appearance of long-range missiles, that is, missiles whose reach extends beyond the battlefield into Russia, resulted in statements from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs that Russia would have to compensate for the missiles reach by taking more of Ukraine in order to create a buffer zone. As the missiles the West sends keep lengthening in range, the consequence is that the buffer zone keeps enlarging and the entirety of Ukraine will have to be conquered and occupied and a Russian-friendly government installed in Ukraine. Already there are reports of Ukrainian drone attacks on Tatarstan in central Russia one thousand kilometers from the front line in Ukraine. Clearly the conflict is not a limited military operation. https://www.rt.com/russia/598116-airports-closed-factory-evacuated-tatarstan-drone/

Whether Putin understands that his “limited military operation” is no longer practical is unclear.

The Ukrainian Army has been defeated. More mobilization will only result in a higher Ukrainian death toll. So where does the conflict go from here?

I suspect the Russian military will bypass Kharkov and leave it surrounded and cut off. The remains of the Ukrainian military is likely to reposition on the west bank of the Dnieper River. Russia, if the Kremlin ever becomes serious about the conflict, will take Odessa unless US/NATO occupy Odessa first.

The question is whether this would bring an end to the conflict or would Western Ukraine fill up with NATO forces in order to maintain a hostile regime toward Russia. If the latter, the conflict ceases to be between Ukraine and Russia and becomes one of the West and Russia. Putin would have rescued the Russian territories, but Ukraine would remain militarized. This time with US/NATO.

The Kremlin’s failure to act decisively in the beginning will have left Russia with a festering problem.

Washington will further stress Putin with attempted color revolution in Georgia, like Ukraine a former Russian province. A successful color revolution would allow Washington to open a second front against Russia.

A color revolution in Georgia is Washington’s intent. The Georgian legislature recently passed the Transparency of Foreign Influence Act. The legislation would require Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) engaged in promoting the interests of a foreign power to disclose their donors.

Apparently, the legislature waited too long to face up to the threat. The foreign financed entities were able to put protesters in the streets of the capital for weeks and succeeded in pressuring the Georgian president into vetoing the bill. The government backed away from an earlier attempt in 2023 to pass the bill when confronted by street protests. https://www.rt.com/russia/597835-georgian-president-vetoes-controversial-law/

The Biden regime said the legislation “undermines democracy,” and the EU said it would block Georgia’s entrance into the European Union. Of course, Georgia is not in Europe and has no business in the EU. Clearly, Washington and Brussels’ interest in a bill pertaining to Georgia’s internal affairs indicates that the legislation is understood as prevention against a color revolution and that the West intends such a revolution. Washington is offering preferential trade treatment if Georgia will leave itself open to overthrow. https://sputnikglobe.com/20240521/us-tries-carrot-and-stick-to-subdue-georgia-1118568454.html

The prime minister of Georgia says the country needs the foreign agents law in order to protect Georgia from external forces that want to launch a “Georgian Maidan.” https://www.rt.com/russia/598091-georgia-ukraine-foreign-agents-bill/ One wonders if Putin again will stand aside and allow Washington to bring him more troubles.

Washington used Georgia against Russia in 2008 when Georgian troops invaded South Ossetia resulting in intervention by the Russian military. A successful color revolution would open a second front, or a replacement front, against Russia. There is no indication that the West intends to cease its provocations of Russia.

Gilbert Doctorow recently explained that the provocations have reached such a reckless and dangerous level that Russia is undergoing military exercises practicing the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Europe against NATO. https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2024/05/22/the-ever-widening-war-60/

Putin was forced to intervene in Donbas. He attempted to limit the intervention to Donbas, but the West insisted on widening the war. The war has now widened to the point that Russia is preparing, should the need arise, to wipe out US/NATO military capability in Europe.

Doctorow is not confident that the West will come to its senses. Neither am I.

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