Update (13:15 ET): What was largely a theoretical modeling exercise until moments ago, is set to go live because Reuters reports that the EU is set to declare a full embargo on Russian oil after this weekend’s French election:
- EU GAS PRICE TO SHOOT UP AS EU TO DECLARE EMBARGO ON RUSSIAN OIL AFTER FRENCH ELECTION NEXT WEEK – SOURCE
Why wait until after the election to launch the embargo? Simple: Europe’s bureaucrats are correctly terrified that the coming oil price spike to push the vote in Le Pen’s favor, which is why Europe will wait until after the election (when Macron will supposedly be the next president of France, as Belgium hopes) to announce it publicly.
More below (and in the full JPM report available to pro subs).
