Gold – Page 41 – The Burning Platform

2011 – THE YEAR OF CATCH-22

I wrote this on January 3. It was my outlook for 2011. Whenever I think I’m too pessimistic about the world, I go back and read old articles. This article is less than 4 months old and the situation has gotten much worse, much faster than I anticipated. The economy has slowed dramatically, even with the payroll tax cut and Ben’s QE2. I now think the 2nd half of 2011 will be outright recession. Again, my own words prove than I’m actually an optimist compared to what really happens. Think about that the next time you get depressed by one of my articles.

As I began to think about what might happen in 2011, the classic Joseph Heller novel Catch 22 kept entering my mind. Am I sane for thinking such a thing, or am I so insane that asking this question proves that I’m too rational to even think such a thing? In the novel, the “Catch 22” is that “anyone who wants to get out of combat duty isn’t really crazy”. Hence, pilots who request a fitness evaluation are sane, and therefore must fly in combat. At the same time, if an evaluation is not requested by the pilot, he will never receive one (i.e. they can never be found “insane”), meaning he must also fly in combat. Therefore, Catch-22 ensures that no pilot can ever be grounded for being insane – even if he were. The absurdity is captured in this passage:

There was only one catch and that was Catch-22, which specified that a concern for one’s own safety in the face of dangers that were real and immediate was the process of a rational mind. Orr was crazy and could be grounded. All he had to do was ask; and as soon as he did, he would no longer be crazy and would have to fly more missions. Orr would be crazy to fly more missions and sane if he didn’t, but if he was sane, he had to fly them. If he flew them, he was crazy and didn’t have to; but if he didn’t want to, he was sane and had to. Yossarian was moved very deeply by the absolute simplicity of this clause of Catch-22 and let out a respectful whistle. “That’s some catch, that Catch-22,” he observed. “It’s the best there is,” Doc Daneeka agreed. – Catch 22 – Joseph Heller

The United States and its leaders are stuck in their own Catch 22. They need the economy to improve in order to generate jobs, but the economy can only improve if people have jobs. They need the economy to recover in order to improve our deficit situation, but if the economy really recovers long term interest rates will increase, further depressing the housing market and increasing the interest expense burden for the US, therefore increasing the deficit. A recovering economy would result in more production and consumption, which would result in more oil consumption driving the price above $100 per barrel, therefore depressing the economy. Americans must save for their retirements as 10,000 Baby Boomers turn 65 every day, but if the savings rate goes back to 10%, the economy will collapse due to lack of consumption. Consumer expenditures account for 71% of GDP and need to revert back to 65% for the US to have a balanced sustainable economy, but a reduction in consumer spending will push the US back into recession, reducing tax revenues and increasing deficits. You can see why Catch 22 is the theme for 2011.

It seems the consensus for 2011 is that the economy will grow 3% to 4%, two million new jobs will be created, corporate profits will rise, and the stock market will rise another 10% to 15%. Sounds pretty good. The problem with this storyline is that it is based on a 2010 that gave the appearance of recovery, but was a hoax propped up by trillions in borrowed funds. On January 1, 2010 the National Debt of the United States rested at $12.3 trillion. On December 31, 2010 the National Debt checked in at $13.9 trillion, an increase of $1.6 trillion.

The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet totaled $2.28 trillion on January 1, 2010. Today, it stands at $2.46 trillion, an increase of $180 billion.

Over this same time frame, the Real GDP of the U.S. has increased approximately $350 billion, and is still below the level reached in the 4th Quarter of 2007. U.S. politicians and Ben Bernanke spent almost $1.8 trillion, or 13% of GDP, in one year to create a miniscule 2.7% increase in GDP. This is reported as a recovery by the mainstream corporate media mouthpieces. On September 18, 2008 the American financial system came within hours of a total meltdown, caused by Wall Street mega-banks and their bought off political cronies in Washington DC. The National Debt on that day stood at $9.7 trillion. The US Government has borrowed $4.2 since that date, a 43% increase in the National Debt in 27 months. The Federal Reserve balance sheet totaled $963 billion in September 2008 and Bernanke has expanded it by $1.5 trillion, a 155% increase in 27 months. Most of the increase was due to the purchase of toxic mortgage backed securities from their Wall Street masters.

Real GDP in the 3rd quarter of 2008 was $13.2 trillion. Real GDP in the 3rd quarter of 2010 was $13.3 trillion.

Think about these facts for one minute. Your leaders have borrowed $5.7 trillion from future unborn generations and have increased GDP by $100 billion. The financial crisis, caused by excessive debt creation by Wall Street and ridiculously low interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, 30 years in the making, erupted in 2008. The response to a crisis caused by too much debt and interest rates manipulated too low was to create an immense amount of additional debt and reduce interest rates to zero. The patient has terminal cancer and the doctors have injected the patient with more cancer cells and a massive dose of morphine. The knowledge about how we achieved the 2010 “recovery” is essential to understanding what could happen in 2011.

Confidence Game

Ben Bernanke, Timothy Geithner, Barack Obama, the Wall Street banks, and the corporate mainstream media are playing a giant confidence game. It is a desperate gamble. The plan has been to convince the population of the US that the economy is in full recovery mode. By convincing the masses that things are recovering, they will begin to spend and buy stocks. If they spend, companies will gain confidence and start hiring workers. More jobs will create increasing confidence, reinforcing the recovery story, and leading to the stock market soaring to new heights. As the market rises, the average Joe will be drawn into the market and it will go higher. Tax revenues will rise as corporate profits, wages and capital gains increase. This will reduce the deficit. This is the plan and it appears to be working so far. But, Catch 22 will kick in during 2011.

Retail sales are up 6.5% over 2009 as consumers have been convinced to whip out one of their 15 credit cards and buy some more iPads, Flat screen TVs, Ugg boots and Tiffany diamond pendants. Consumer non-revolving debt for autos, student loans, boats and mobile homes is at an all-time high as the government run financing arms of GMAC and Sallie Mae have issued loans to anyone that can fog a mirror with their breath. Total consumer credit card debt has been flat for 2010 as banks have written it off as fast as consumers can charge it. The savings rate has begun to fall again as Americans are being convinced to live today and not worry about tomorrow. Of course, the current savings rate of 5.9% would be 2% if the government was not dishing out billions in transfer payments. Wages have declined by $127 billion from the 3rd Quarter of 2008, while government transfer payments for unemployment and other social programs have increased by $441 billion, all borrowed.

Both the government and its citizens are living the old adage:

Everybody wants to get to heaven, but no one wants to practice what is required to get there.

The government politicians and bureaucrats promise to cut unsustainable spending as soon as the economy recovers. The economy has been recovering for the last 6 quarters, according to GDP figures, but there are absolutely no government efforts to cut spending. This is proof that politicians always lie. It will never be the right time to cut spending. Another faux crisis will be used as a reason to continue unfunded spending increases. Having consumer spending account for 70% of GDP is unbalanced and unsustainable. Everyone knows that consumer spending needs to revert back to 65% of GDP and the Savings Rate needs to rise to 8% or higher in order to ensure the long-term fiscal health of the country. Savings and investment are what sustain countries over time. Borrowing and spending is a recipe for failure and bankruptcy. The facts are that consumer expenditures as a percentage of GDP have actually risen since 2007 and Congress and Obama just cut payroll taxes in an effort to encourage Americans to spend even more borrowed money. Catch 22 is alive and well.

native advertising

The first half of 2011 is guaranteed to give the appearance of recovery. The lame-duck Congress “compromise” will pump hundreds of billions of borrowed dollars into the economy. The continuation of unemployment benefits for 99 weeks (supposedly to help employment) and the 2% payroll tax cut will goose consumer spending. Ben Bernanke and his QE2 stimulus for poor Wall Street bankers is pumping $75 billion per month ($3 to $4 billion per day) directly into the stock market. Since Ben gave Wall Street the all clear signal in late August, the NASDAQ has soared 25%. Despite the fact that there are 362,000 less Americans employed than were employed in August 2010, the mainstream media will continue to tout the jobs recovery. The goal of all these efforts is to boost confidence and spending. Everything being done by those in power has the seeds of its own destruction built in. The Catch 22 will assert itself in the 2nd half of 2011.

Housing Catch 22

Ben Bernanke, an Ivy League PhD who should understand the concept of standard deviation, missed a 3 standard deviation bubble in housing as ironically pointed out by a recent Dallas Federal Reserve report.

Home prices still need to fall 23%, just to revert to its long-term mean. That is a fact that even Bernanke should be able to grasp (maybe not). Anyone who argues that housing has bottomed and will resume growth either has an agenda (NAR) or is a clueless dope (Bernanke). A new perfect storm is brewing for housing in 2011 and will not subside until late 2012. You may have thought those bad mortgages had been all written off. You would be wrong. There will be in excess of $200 billion of adjustable rate mortgages that reset between 2011 and 2012, with in excess of $125 billion being the dreaded Alt-A mortgages. This is a recipe for millions of new foreclosures.

According to the Dallas Fed, in addition to the 3.9 million homes on the market, there is a shadow inventory of 6 million homes that will be coming on the market due to foreclosure. About 3.6 million housing units, representing 2.7% of the total housing stock, are vacant and being held off the market. These are not occasional-use homes visited by people whose usual residence is elsewhere but units that are vacant year-round. Presumably, many are among the 6 million distressed properties that are listed as at least 60 days delinquent, in foreclosure or foreclosed in banks’ inventories.

The coup de grace for the housing market will be Ben Bernake’s ode to Catch 22. In his November 4 OP-ED piece he had this to say about his $600 billion QE2:

“Easier financial conditions will promote economic growth. For example, lower mortgage rates will make housing more affordable and allow more homeowners to refinance.” – Housing sage Ben Bernanke

On the day Bernanke wrote these immortal words 30 Year Mortgage rates were 4.2%. Today, two months later, they stand at 5.0%. This should be a real boon to refinancing and the avalanche of mortgage resets coming down the pike. It seems that money printing and a debt financed “recovery” leads to higher long-term interest rates. The more convincing the recovery, the higher interest rates will go. The higher interest rates go, the further the housing market will drop. The further housing prices drop, the number of underwater homeowners will grow to 30%. This will lead to more foreclosures. Approximately 50% of all the assets on banks books are backed by real estate. Billions in bank losses are in the pipeline. Do you see the Catch 22 in Bernanke’s master plan? The Dallas Fed sees it:

This unease highlights the housing market’s fragility and suggests there may be no pain-free path to the eventual righting of the market. No perfect solution to the housing crisis exists. The latest price declines will undoubtedly cause more economic dislocation. As the crisis enters its fifth year, uncertainty is as prevalent as ever and continues to hinder a more robust economic recovery. Given that time has not proven beneficial in rendering pricing clarity, allowing the market to clear may be the path of least distress. – Dallas Fed

Quantitative Easing Catch 22

Ben Bernanke’s quantitative easing (dropping dollars from helicopters) is riddled with Catch-22 implications. Bernanke revealed his plan in his 2002 speech about deflation:

“The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at no cost.”

The expectations of most when reading Ben’s words were that his helicopters would drop the dollars across America. What he has done is load up his helicopters with trillions of dollars and circled above Wall Street for two years continuously dropping his load. Bernanke’s quantitative easing, which will triple the Fed’s balance sheet by June of 2011, began in earnest in early 2009. The price for a gallon on gasoline was $1.62. Today, it is $3.05, an 88% increase in two years. Gold was $814 an ounce. Today, it is $1,421 an ounce, a 61% increase in two years. In the last year, the prices for copper, silver, cotton, wheat, corn, coffee and other commodities have risen in price by 30% to 90%.

Quantitative easing has been sold to the public as a way to avoid the terrible ravages of deflation. The fact is there are less jobs, lower wages, lower home prices, zero returns on bank deposits, higher fuel costs, higher food costs, higher real estate taxes, higher medical insurance premiums and huge jaw dropping bonuses for the bankers on Wall Street. Somehow the government has spun this toxic mix into a CPI which has resulted in fixed income senior citizens getting no increases in their pitiful Social Security payments for two years. You can judge where Ben’s Helicopters have dropped the $2 trillion. Quantitative easing has benefited only Wall Street bankers and the 1% wealthiest Americans. The $1.4 trillion of toxic mortgage backed securities on The Fed’s balance sheet are worth less than $700 billion. How will they unload this toxic waste? The Treasuries they have bought drop in value as interest rates rise. Quantitative easing’s Catch 22 is that it can never be unwound without destroying the Fed and the US economy.

The USD dollar index was at 89 in early 2009. Today, it stands at 79, an 11% decline, which is phenomenal considering that Europe has imploded over this same time frame. Bernanke’s master plan is for the USD to fall and ease the burden of our $14 trillion in debt. He just wants it to fall slowly. Foreigners know what he is doing and are stealthily getting out of their USD positions. This explains much of the rise in gold, silver and commodities. The rise in oil to $91 a barrel will not be a top. The Catch-22 of a declining dollar is that prices of all imported goods go up. If the dollar falls another 10%, the price of oil will rise above $120 a barrel and push the economy back into recession. Then there is the little issue of at what level of printing and debasing the currency does the rest of the world lose its remaining confidence in Ben and the USD.

A few other “minor” issues for 2011 include:

The imminent collapse of the European Union as Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain are effectively bankrupt. Spain is the size of the other three countries combined and has a 20% unemployment rate. The Germans are losing patience with these spendthrift countries. Debt does matter.
State and local governments were able to put off hard choices for another year, as Washington DC handed out hundreds of billions in pork. California will have a $19 billion budget deficit; Illinois will have a $17 billion budget deficit; New Jersey will have a $10.5 billion budget deficit; New York will have a $9 billion budget deficit. A US Congress filled with Tea Party newcomers will refuse to bailout these spendthrift states. Substantial government employee layoffs are a lock.

There is a growing probability that China will experience a hard landing as their own quantitative easing has resulted in inflation surging to a 28 month high of 5.1%, with food inflation skyrocketing to 11.7%. Poor families spend up to half of their income on food. Rapidly rising prices severely burden poor people and can spark civil unrest if too many of them can’t afford food.
The Tea Party members of Congress are likely to cause as much trouble for Republicans as Democrats. If they decide to make a stand on raising the debt ceiling early in 2011, all hell could break loose in the debt and stock markets.

The government’s confidence game is destined to fail due to Catch-22. Will the consensus forecast of a growing economy, rising corporate profits, 10% to 15% stock market gains, 2 million new jobs, and a housing recovery come true in 2011? No it will not. By mid-year confidence in Ben’s master plan will wane. He is trapped in the paradox of Catch-22. When you start hearing about QE3 you’ll know that the gig is up. If Bernanke is foolish enough to propose QE3 you can expect gold, silver and oil to go parabolic. Enjoy 2011. I don’t think Ben Bernanke will.

“That’s some catch, that Catch-22.” -Yossarian

SMOOT-HAWLEY REDUX (Featured Article)

This article originally appeared in the November 2010 edition of the Casey Report.

As the Greater Depression continues along a parallel pathway with the Great Depression of the 1930s, Congress is about to commit the same blunder it made in 1930. The rocket scientists in the House of Representatives in September passed the Currency Reform for Fair Trade Act, which aims to crack down on Chinese currency manipulation by targeting imports from China and other countries with currencies that are perceived to be undervalued.

The vote was 348 to 79, with more than 100 Republicans voting in favor of the bill. It died in the Senate before the mid-term elections, but Representative Sander Levin, Representative Tim Ryan and Representative Tim Murphy are expected to reintroduce the bill when the House returns in February from a congressional district work break. Senators Shumer and Casey are also planning legislation to punish the Chinese for unfair trade practices.

The head rocket scientist, Nancy Pelosi, declared:

“For so many years, we have watched the China-U.S. trade deficit grow and grow and grow. Today, we are finally doing something about it by recognizing that China’s manipulation of the currency represents a subsidy for Chinese exports coming to the United States and elsewhere. We owe that to American workers.”

This legislation is part of the Democrats’ “Make It in America” initiative that endeavors to increase domestic manufacturing and creating new American jobs. In classic congressional fashion, they are attempting to pass a bill that will make them look good in the eyes of their constituents, but will exacerbate already dangerous world trade imbalances.

You can count on Congress to pander to unions, protectionists, and America Firsters with hollow legislation, when 40 years of bad decisions, bad policies, and bad choices placed us in this situation. When you have made legislative choices that will require the U.S. government to borrow another $6 trillion in the next four years and you already owe someone $868 billion, it is not a good idea to punch them in the nose.

The U.S. is running an annual trade deficit exceeding $500 billion per year. It has not run an annual trade surplus since 1975. The trade deficit peaked at $769 billion in 2006, subtracting 5.7% from GDP. The enormous trade deficits are a result of government spending policies, Federal Reserve monetary policies, and corporate outsourcing that have gutted the industrial base of the U.S. These policies resulted in personal consumption expenditures surging from 62% of GDP in 1970, to 71% of GDP in 2009.

The trade deficits are not the fault of the countries selling goods to American consumers. Trade subtracted 3.5% from growth in April through June, the most since 1947, as imports surged at the fastest pace since 1984.

The trade deficit with China reached a record level in August of $28 billion, as imports skyrocketed. The U.S. is on track to exceed the 2008 record trade deficit with China of $268 billion. The facts that you don’t hear from the protectionist crowd is that exports to China are on track to reach $84 billion in 2010, 20% higher than the previous peak in 2008. Exports to China have increased by 525% since 2000, while imports from China have increased by 340%. The storyline about China not allowing U.S. imports into their country is false. Putting tariffs or quotas on goods coming from China will not create jobs in America and will only deepen and lengthen the current depression, just as it did in the 1930s.

Protectionism During the Great Depression

The complete collapse of worldwide trade during the 1930s, with its root in trade protectionism, did not cause the Great Depression, but it certainly didn’t help. In 1929, exports totaled $5.9 billion and accounted for 5.7% of GDP. By 1933, exports had plunged to $2.0 billion and accounted for only 3.5% of GDP. Imports plummeted by an equal amount. Global trade declined by 60% as tariffs were imposed and retaliation created a downward spiral. The U.S. provoked the trade war with the passage of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.

Senators Reed Smoot and Willis C. Hawley sponsored the bill, and it was signed into law on June 17, 1930, by Herbert Hoover. It raised U.S. tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods to the highest levels since 1828. The new tariff imposed an effective tax rate of 60% on more than 3,200 products and materials imported into the United States, quadrupling previous tariff rates. According to the U.S. Statistical Abstract, the overall effective tariff rate was 13.5% in 1929 and 19.8% by 1933.

It seems politicians never change. During the 1928 presidential campaign, Herbert Hoover promised to help beleaguered farmers by increasing tariffs on agricultural products. After getting elected, Hoover asked Congress for an increase of tariff rates for agricultural goods and a decrease of rates for industrial goods. The Republican-dominated House and Senate did him one better and increased tariffs across the board.

In May 1930, a petition was signed by 1,028 economists asking President Hoover to veto the legislation. Henry Ford begged him to veto the legislation. Hoover opposed the bill and called it “vicious, extortionate, and obnoxious” because he felt it would undercut his pledge to international cooperation. Then he proved that he was a standard-issue weak-kneed politician by signing the bill. Hoover’s initial instinct proved correct. The international community levied their own tariffs in retaliation after the bill became law. Canada, Britain, and other European countries immediately imposed their own tariffs. World trade came to a grinding halt.

Germany, with its war reparations, was particularly vulnerable to this contraction. Ironically, the U.S. was the lender to the world during the 1920s. American lending propped up the entire world economy. Former allies paid war-debt installments to the U.S. chiefly with funds obtained from German reparations payments, and Germany was able to make those payments only because of large private loans from the U.S. and Britain. Similarly, U.S. investments abroad provided the dollars, which alone made it possible for foreign nations to buy U.S. exports.

By killing world trade with the Smoot-Hawley tariffs, the U.S. shot itself in the foot and contributed to worsening the Depression in Germany. This inadvertently led to the rise of Hitler. Talk about unintended consequences.

Decades of Bad Choices

Blustering politicians like Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer are attempting to ram through populist legislation in order to appear to be on the side of the American people. The Treasury secretary of the United States has declared China a currency manipulator. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao responded in kind:

“If we increase the Yuan by 20% to 40%, as some people are calling for, many of our factories will shut down and society will be in turmoil. If China saw social and economic turbulence, then it would be a disaster for the world.”

They are playing a high-stakes game of chicken, and the ante is much higher than it was in 1930. Exports account for 12.5% of our GDP today, versus 5.7% prior to the Great Depression.

The United States was a net exporter when the 1970s started. Our enormous trade deficits, which subtract from GDP, were not imposed on us by foreign countries. We are in this predicament because we made appalling choices.

We chose to allow the Federal Reserve to inflate away 95% of the purchasing power of the USD since 1971. We chose to elect politicians that have driven the national debt from $371 billion in 1970 to $13.6 trillion today. We chose to support “free trade” legislation that allowed corporate CEOs to gut our industrial base and ship good-paying jobs to China, while filling the pockets of these executives with millions. We chose to spend rather than save and invest in our country. We chose to become a consumer debt-centered society, relishing in the cheap goods we could buy from China on credit. We chose low prices at Walmart over small-business owners and sustainable domestic production of goods. Decades of bad choices cannot be reversed through taxation, tariffs, and quotas.

The Chinese have pegged their currency to the USD since 1995. For a decade, the U.S. was just fine with the peg, as American consumers got cheap goods, American corporations reaped huge profits from outsourcing, and banks raked in billions by lending money to everyone. Now that we have entered the Greater Depression, the finger pointing and accusations have begun.

Politicians and the people who elected them want someone to blame for their bad choices. The Chinese are the bogeyman that forced Americans to buy on credit. They forced American corporations to offshore millions of U.S. jobs. If the U.S. had a strong dollar policy, ran surpluses, and lived within its means, the Chinese peg would be meaningless.

U.S. GDP has grown by 335% since 1985. Over this same time frame, exports to China have grown by 1,800%, and imports from China have grown by 7,700%. Do politicians actually believe that imposing 30% tariffs on all Chinese products will magically create new manufacturing jobs in America? The 42,400 factories that have closed since 2001 and the 5.4 million manufacturing jobs lost are not coming back. A 30% upward revaluation of the yuan or 30% tariffs on Chinese products would devastate an economy that is still 70% dependent upon consumer spending. Just as in 1930, protectionist measures would boomerang and smack America in the back of the head.

If the pandering politicians in Washington D.C. are myopic enough to ignore the lessons of the past and start a trade war with China and/or the rest of the world, the possible implications would be:

An immediate increase in the prices of goods from China, which would proportionately hurt the lower and middle classes who shop at Walmart.
Retaliatory tariffs and protectionist policies by other countries, resulting in a decline in U.S. exports.
A net loss of U.S. jobs as the decline in consumer spending-related jobs will far outweigh any benefits to exporting businesses.
A decrease in world trade, resulting in a deepening of the current worldwide depression.
Possible unintended consequences similar to what happened in Germany after the hyperinflationary collapse of their currency (dictators, war, chaos).

The investment implications of trade barriers, tariffs, quantitative easing, and currency debasement are clear. Gold, silver, and virtually all commodities are likely to soar in this environment. To find out how to profit from this certain trend, check out Casey Research’s BIG GOLD REPORT.

AMERICAN EULOGY (Featured Article)

The Founding Fathers described the kind of country they were shaping on July 4, 1776 with the most well known sentence in the English language:

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. – Declaration of Independence

In 1776, America was an idea born of noble intentions. An idea that every citizen had the opportunity to succeed, prosper and achieve based upon their hard work and abilities. The government did not provide advantages or a safety net for its citizens. People were free to succeed or fail based upon their own merits. America had a frontier spirit because it was still a frontier. Individual effort, intellect and willingness to sweat allowed you to move up the socio-economic ladder. The government provided a National Defense, and very little else. In 1794, the country had a population of 4.4 million and a GDP of $310 million. Government spending totaled $7.1 million, or 2.3% of GDP, and was split between Defense and interest on the Revolutionary War debt. Today, Federal Government spending totals $3.7 trillion, or 25% of GDP.

James Truslow Adams in his 1931 Epic of America described the America that once existed in reality, but only exists as a phantom today:

“The American Dream is that dream of a land in which life should be better and richer and fuller for every man, with opportunity for each according to ability or achievement. It is a difficult dream for the European upper classes to interpret adequately, also too many of us ourselves have grown weary and mistrustful of it. It is not a dream of motor cars and high wages merely, but a dream of social order in which each man and each woman shall be able to attain to the fullest stature of which they are innately capable, and be recognized by others for what they are, regardless of the fortuitous circumstances of birth or position.”

“The American Dream that has lured tens of millions of all nations to our shores in the past century has not been a dream of material plenty, though that has doubtlessly counted heavily. It has been a dream of being able to grow to fullest development as a man and woman, unhampered by the barriers which had slowly been erected in the older civilizations, unrepressed by social orders which had developed for the benefit of classes rather than for the simple human being of any and every class.” – James Truslow Adams – Epic of America

His assessment of the American Dream was made in 1931. He saw signs that the American Dream had begun to die. He was right. The American Dream began to develop a terminal illness in 1913 with the creation of the Federal Reserve and the passage of the 16th Amendment to the Constitution, creating a permanent income tax.

Song of the Century

Sing us a song of the century
It sings like American Eulogy
The dawn of my love and conspiracy
Forgotten hope and the class of 13
Tell me a story into that goodnight
Sing us a song for me – American Eulogy – Green Day

At the outset of the last century America was still a vital, free, growing country on the rise. The song of the century began as a joyous ballad and ended as a funeral dirge. The creation of a Central Bank, which could create inflation on demand, and allowing politicians the ability to buy votes through pork spending, paid for with ever increasing taxation, have sucked the life out of the American Dream. According to the Federal Reserve’s own website, their mandates were clear. Below are those mandates and an assessment of their success.

Conducting the nation’s monetary policy by influencing the monetary and credit conditions in the economy in pursuit of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.

Due to loose monetary policy in the 1920’s, the Federal Reserve created a stock bubble, a stock market crash of 89%, a decade long Great Depression, and unemployment of 25% in the 1930’s.
Due to loose monetary policies in the 1970’s, the Federal Reserve created raging inflation that reached 14% in the early 1980’s and needed to raise interest rates to 18% in order to break the back of inflation, resulting in unemployment surging to 9.7% in 1982.
Due to loose monetary policies in the early 2000’s, the Federal Reserve created the largest housing bubble in history, with the subsequent collapse bringing the financial system to within hours of collapse, and driving unemployment to 9.9% in 2009.
Due to the loosest monetary policy in history, today, inflation has begun to rage across the globe, leading to riots, protests and bloody revolutions, with more on the way.
The Federal Reserve has achieved their stable prices mandate by inflating away 96% of the purchasing power of the US dollar in less than 100 years. The price of gold continues to soar, as faith in the US dollar diminishes by the minute. I guess stability is in the eye of the beholder.

Supervising and regulating banking institutions to ensure the safety and soundness of the nation’s banking and financial system and to protect the credit rights of consumers.

The Federal Reserve’s supervisory and regulatory expertise can be observed in the graph above. This graph doesn’t do the Fed justice, as it begins in 1934. Sixteen years after its origination, the Fed managed to let 10,000 out of 25,000 banks in the country fail between 1929 and 1932.
Their glorious history also includes residing over the failure of 2,800 banks during the 1980’s S&L crisis.
While protecting their mega-bank Wall Street masters, the Fed has allowed over 300 small banks to go under so far. There are 900 banks on the troubled list that will eventually meet their maker.

Maintaining the stability of the financial system and containing systemic risk that may arise in financial markets.

Generally, maintaining the stability of the financial system and containing systematic risk doesn’t include allowing the worldwide financial system to come within hours of collapse as described by Rep. Paul Kanjorski:

“On Thursday [the 18th], at about 11 o’clock in the morning, the Federal Reserve noticed a tremendous drawdown of money market accounts in the United States to a tune of $550 billion being drawn out in a matter of an hour or two. The Treasury opened up its window to help. They pumped $105 billion into the system and quickly realized that they could not stem the tide. We were having an electronic run on the banks.

They decided to close the operation, close down the money accounts, and announce a guarantee of $250,000 per account so there wouldn’t be further panic and there. And that’s what actually happened. If they had not done that their estimation was that by two o’clock that afternoon, $5.5 trillion would have been drawn out of the money market system of the United States, would have collapsed the entire economy of the United States, and within 24 hours the world economy would have collapsed.

Now we talked at that time about what would have happened if that happened. It would have been the end of our economic system and our political system as we know it.”

Providing financial services to depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign official institutions, including playing a major role in operating the nation’s payments system.

It seems this is the only mandate the Federal Reserve has taken seriously is providing services to its owners, the banks. Did the bankers and politicians that met on Jekyll Island to mastermind this Central Bank envision that those services would include: buying $1.5 trillion of toxic mortgages from the banks; allowing the mega-banks to borrow from the Fed at 0% and reinvest those funds at 2.5% risk free; pumping $600 billion directly into the stock market through their QE2 scam; allowing banks to falsely overstate the value of their mortgage and commercial loans; and never ever enforcing basic risk management regulations.
While providing Wall Street banks with billions of unearned risk free profits, 0% interest rates further impoverish the savers and senior citizens of the country. The Federal Reserve has fulfilled their unstated mandate of enriching bankers at the expense of middle class Americans.

To strengthen U.S. standing in the world economy.

The Federal Reserve’s affect on the world economy is best revealed in a pictorial tribute to their policies:

TUNISIA

ALGERIA

EGYPT

The Federal Reserve has not been alone in killing the American Dream. Politicians since 1913 have done their part in suffocating the dream. The tax code consisted of 400 pages in 1913 and tax rates ranged from 1% to 7%. In less than a century politicians of both parties have carved out 70,000 pages of payoffs, entitlements, and bribes for their contributors and constituents. Tax rates now range from 10% to 35%. Those 70,000 pages of rules, regulations and tax breaks do not benefit the average middle class American. They benefit those who had the money and power to buy off a Congressman.

The Federal Reserve and the US Tax Code bastardized the American Dream, created barriers to economic advancement, and supported the accumulation of wealth and power by a select few. The ruling elite have used their power and control over the media to convince the majority of Americans that the American Dream is about accumulating material possessions with debt. The American Dream no longer meant attaining the fullest measure of your capabilities, but living in the biggest McMansion, driving the nicest BMW, watching the biggest TV and wearing the latest fashions, all acquired with debt. America is dying.

Mass Hysteria

Red alert is the color of panic
Elevated to the point of static
Beating into the hearts of the fanatics
And the neighborhood’s a loaded gun
Idle thought lead to full-throttle screaming
And the welfare is asphyxiating
Mass confusion is all the new age and it’s creating a feeding ground for the bottom feeders of hysteria

Hysteria, mass hysteria!
Mass hysteria!
Mass hysteria!
Mass hysteria! – American Eulogy – Green Day

Green Day captures the essence of America since the turn of the century. The country has been in the throes of mass hysteria since 9/11. The once independent, self sufficient individualists that populated this country have become dependent, government reliant, quivering shadows of the frontiersmen that created this country. In the name of safety and security, the American people have allowed their government to accumulate complete control over every aspect of our lives. Only a country in the grip of mass hysteria would allow their leaders to run the National Debt from $5.8 trillion to $14.1 trillion in less than 10 years. Only a country in the clutches of mass hysteria could believe they could get rich by trading internet stocks and houses to a greater fool. Only a country seized by mass hysteria would allow its leaders to promote democracy at the point of a cruise missile as we continue to fight $3 trillion wars in the Middle East, while nearly tripling the amount spent on Defense to more than $1 trillion per year.

Defense Budget Breakdown for 2011

Defense-related expenditure	2011 Budget request & Mandatory spending	Calculation
DOD spending	$721.3 billion	Base budget + “Overseas Contingency Operations”
FBI counter-terrorism	$2.7 billion	At least one-third FBI budget.
International Affairs	$10.1–$54.2 billion	At minimum, foreign arms sales. At most, entire State budget
Energy Department, defense-related	$20.9 billion
Veterans Affairs	$66.2 billion
Homeland Security	$54.7 billion
NASA, satellites	$3.4–$8.5 billion	Between 20% and 50% of NASA’s total budget
Veterans pensions	$58.4 billion
Other defense-related mandatory spending	$7.5 billion
Interest on debt incurred in past wars	$114.8–$454.2 billion	Between 23% and 91% of total interest
Total Spending	$1.060–$1.449 trillion

If you had told someone on September 10, 2001 that ten years later America would be running $1.5 trillion annual deficits, fighting two wars of choice in countries that despise our presence, and had not only not addressed the $100 billion of unfunded welfare liabilities but added billions more with Medicare D and Obamacare, they would have thought you were a crazy doomster predicting the end of the world. They would have put you away in a padded cell if you had further predicted that politicians would cut taxes three separate times, that the Wall Street banks that leveraged themselves 40 to 1 and destroyed the financial system were handed $2 trillion of taxpayer funds so they could pay themselves multi-million dollar bonuses, and that the Federal Reserve would triple its balance sheet to $2.45 trillion by running its printing presses at hyper-speed and handing the money to those same Wall Street Mega-Banks.

What caused the mass hysteria that has destroyed the soul of America? Was it just the madness of crowds? Or was it something more sinister?

True sounds of maniacal laughter
And the deaf-mute is misleading the choir
The punch-line is a natural disaster
And it’s sung by the unemployed
Fight fire with a riot
The class war is hanging on a wire because the martyr is a compulsive liar
When he said “it’s just a bunch of niggers throwing gas into the ….” – American Eulogy – Green Day

Whenever an act doesn’t make sense and seems irrational, you need to ask yourself, “who benefits?” Who has benefitted from the hysteria? The answer is in plain sight. The moneyed interests benefitted. The military industrial complex benefitted. The Federal Government bureaucracy benefitted. Wall Street bankers benefitted. Mega-corporations and their CEOs benefitted. The top 1% ruling elite gained more wealth and more power. They created the mass hysteria with the assistance of their corporate owned mainstream media and completed their pillaging of the middle class with the cooperation of regulators, rating agencies and their ultimate weapon, the privately owned Federal Reserve bank, that has enriched its owners while impoverishing those whose only aspiration was to do an honest day’s work, raise their families, and live in relative comfort, safety, and happiness.

I Don’t Wanna Live In The Modern World

I don’t wanna live in the modern world!
I don’t wanna live in the modern world!
I don’t wanna live in the modern world!
I don’t wanna live in the modern world!

I am a nation without bureaucratic lies
Deny the allegation as it’s written (fucking lies!)

I want to take a ride to the great divide
Beyond the “up to date” and the neo-gentrified
The high definition for the low resident
Where the value of your mind is not held in contempt
I can hear the sound of a beating heart
That bleeds beyond a system that’s falling apart
With money to burn on a minimum wage
I don’t give a shit about the modern age – American Eulogy – Green Day

The modern world in no way resembles the world James Truslow Adams wrote so passionately about in 1931. Green Day’s version of bureaucratic lies, high definition TVs for the poor, contempt for those who use their minds, and a debt flooded system that is falling apart is an accurate assessment of America today. The modern world is ruled by the few with wealth and power, sustained by government. The misinformation and propaganda dished out by the mainstream media creates a smokescreen that obscures who wields the true power in this country. The corporate mainstream media has done such a good job spreading the Big Lie that a vast number of Americans actually admire and worship the ultra-rich.

Most Americans still believe the fairy tale of the American Dream, that no matter how humble your beginnings, everyone has a fair chance to become rich in America. The truth is that the wealthy ruling class owns the country. The top 1% control 43% of the financial wealth of the nation. The top 10% control 83% of the financial wealth of the nation. There is a misperception that the ultra-rich earn their wealth. The facts show otherwise. In 2008, only 19% of the income reported by the 13,480 individuals or families making over $10 million came from wages and salaries. Remember the financial crisis of 2008-2009 that wiped out 7 million jobs, cut the value of many homes in half, and required a taxpayer bailout of Wall Street? According to research done by economist Edward Wolff, “there has been an “astounding” 36.1% drop in the wealth (marketable assets) of the median household since the peak of the housing bubble in 2007. By contrast, the wealth of the top 1% of households dropped by far less: just 11.1%. So as of April 2010, it looks like the wealth distribution is even more unequal than it was in 2007.”

Source: William Domhoff

The bottom 90% own less than 19% of stocks and mutual funds in the country. Reality is that the 10% richest Americans own the country. The top 1% control 50% of the investment assets and only 5% of the total debt in the country. The bottom 90% control 12% of the investment assets and are burdened with 73% of the total debt. You can clearly see that the Wall Street bailout and the current Federal Reserve QE2 plan to boost stock prices have only benefitted the top 10% richest Americans. What is good for Wall Street is not good for Main Street. The American middle class has been lured into debt by the purveyors of debt, the ultra-rich elite who control the financial industry. The further into debt the bottom 90% descend, the greater the enrichment of the ruling class. This is why Wall Street shysters, political hacks and the corporate mainstream media have urged Americans to whip out those credit cards and “Save America” by spending money they don’t have, again. It is reminiscent of President Bush’s heartfelt plea to the American public to defeat terrorism by buying a GM car with 0% down.

The propaganda that is constantly pounded into the brains of Americans about “death taxes” and the rich paying more than their fair share of taxes is part of the Big Lie perpetrated by the powerful ruling class. The “huge” issue of estate tax impacts only the few thousand richest Americans. According to a study published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, only 1.6% of Americans receive $100,000 or more in inheritance. Another 1.1% receive $50,000 to $100,000. On the other hand, 91.9% receive nothing (Kotlikoff & Gokhale, 2000). The richest families in the country provide the funding for the mainstream media propaganda needed to eliminate estate taxes.

The lies about the ultra-rich paying more than their fair share of taxes are refuted in the graph above. The top 1% actually pays a lower percentage of their income than the next 9%. The tax code isn’t 70,000 pages for nothing. The ultra-rich have used their wealth to great advantage by having loopholes and tax dodges inserted into the tax code by their bought off congressmen. The average American can’t afford high powered tax specialists and lawyers to help them stash their wealth in off-shore tax havens in the Caribbean and Switzerland. The consistent theme in America today is that the middle class gets screwed and the ultra-rich ruling class accumulates more wealth and power.

The Death of America

“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” – John Adams

Two hundred and thirty five years ago, our Founding Fathers declared that we all had the unalienable rights of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. These rights have been restricted and bastardized over two centuries. Liberties have been severely restricted as your government tracks you through your social security number, is able to monitor your phone and internet communications, and regulates your education, healthcare, business, and a thousand other daily activities. The right to happiness was based upon James Treslow Adams’ view that we were free to attain “the fullest stature of which they are innately capable”. The happiness of becoming a success through your individual exertion, intelligence and efforts has been subverted by the happiness of material goods acquired through the use of debt, peddled by the ruling class.

The American Dream where every person had the opportunity to live a richer and fuller life began to die in 1913. Every generation born in this country had an excellent chance to live a better life than their parents. Relentless progress was the American way. I have three teenage sons. Based on the actions of this country’s ruling oligarchy, I doubt that my sons will live a richer and fuller life than myself. The debts are too extreme, the military overreach too excessive, the looting by the financial class too great, the political corruption too extensive, and the opportunities too few. The dream of a social order where everyone could rise to the highest level of their capabilities regardless of their birth has been systematically squashed. With 66% of households making less than $65,000 and college costs out of reach for 80% of Americans without incurring crushing levels of debt, the chances for most Americans to climb the social ladder through educational advancement are nil. Even if they do graduate from college, the CEOs in corporate America, who “earn” 300 times the average worker, have outsourced their jobs to China and India.

The ruling class provides their children with private schooling and necessary preparation to keep their place in the social order. Wealth begets wealth. The elite send their kids to the elite Ivy League schools and use their connections with their fellow ruling elite to get them jobs on Wall Street, the prestigious connected corporations or government jobs in Washington DC. The wealth of the few has erected barriers to advancement of the many. America has progressively become a stratified class oriented society that has begun to spiral downward as the ruling class has gone too far. The revolutions flaring across the globe are occurring because the ruling class went too far and took too much. The ruling class in America should take note. They have shattered the American Dream and the retribution from those who have been swindled will be unexpected and violent.