Tag: inverted yield curve

Inverted Yield Curve Triggers Recession Warnings

From Birch Gold Group

yield curve recession warning

On the morning of August 14, the yield curve between 2-year and 10-year treasuries inverted.

The Fed swept this type of curve “under the rug” last year in favor of a version that examines shorter-term treasuries. Oddly enough, even the shorter-term version that the Fed still favors has been inverted for a longer period of time. In fact, it remains inverted today.

The main yield inversion between 2-year and 10-year treasuries can be seen in a chart from CNBC below:

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Inverted Yield Curve Signals Coming Recession

Guest Post by Bill Bonner

POITOU, FRANCE – Is our Crash Alert flag still flying? We hope so. It’s been up the pole for so long, waiting patiently for the stock market to fall, we’d hate to miss it when it finally happens.

Stocks sold off yesterday, after the 30-year Treasury bond hit a record high and the yield curve well and truly inverted. The Dow ended the day 800 points lower, with the Dow-to-Gold ratio sinking below 17.

The index measures the fundamental inclination of the economy, by comparing gold to stock prices.

When the economy is healthy and growing, people buy stocks and the index generally goes up. When it is fearful and correcting its mistakes, they buy gold and the index goes down.

It now takes 16.8 ounces of gold to buy the Dow stocks… down from 40 in 1999 and 22 in 2018. Our guess is that it will continue going down until you can buy the Dow stocks for less than 5 ounces of gold.

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