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Leaks Spelling the End for Ukraine

Guest Post by Joe Lauria

Leaked U.S. intelligence documents have exposed Western disinformation Ā about Ukraine winning the war. Now the heavy fighting moves to Washington.

A Washington Post headline last week was a bombshell for someone who has only been reading about the Ukraine war inĀ The Washington Post and other Western media: ā€œU.S. doubts Ukraine counteroffensive will yield big gains, leaked document says.ā€

The story admits that Western media audiences have been misled about the course of the war, that essentially what mainstream media has been reporting about Ukraine has been a pack of lies: namely that Ukraine is winning the war and is poised to launch an offensive that will lead to a final victory.

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Pentagon ā€œLeaksā€: 5 ways to tell REAL from FAKE

Guest Post by Kit Knightly

We promised a longer take on the Pentagon ā€œleaksā€, and here it goes. Regular readers will probably be familiar with my view on leaked documents in general, but if youā€™re not allow me to quote my own 2019 article on the (absurd) ā€œAfghanistan papersā€:

An awful lot of modern ā€œleaksā€ are no such thing. They are Orwellian exercises in controlling the conversation [ā€¦] carefully making sure the ā€œestablishmentā€ and the ā€œalternativeā€ are joined in the middle, controlled from the same source.

Thatā€™s not to say ALL ā€œleaksā€ are automatically and ubiquitously narrative control exercises, clearly some are realā€¦but itā€™s usually pretty easy to tell them apart. In fact hereā€™s a little checklist.

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Russo-Ukrainian War: Leak Biopsy

Guest Post by Big Serge

Authorā€™s Note: I had been intending to publish an article on Soviet operational art this week, but the emergence of the leaks diverted my attention and led to this article instead. Weā€™ll return to military history shortly.

Another winter has ended, and spring has again arisen on the war in Ukraine. Amid the thaw and attendant mud, Russian forces – including the indominable Wagner Group – have pushed the Ukrainian grouping in Bakhmut to the brink, with the AFU now clinging its last defensive toehold in the city. Bakhmut has become the largest battle of the 21st century, and is now entering its climactic phase.

Nevertheless, battlefield developments have been upstaged to some extent by the apparent leak of classified US military intelligence documents which provide a sweeping view into the inner workings of the Pentagonā€™s war.

I am not entirely clear on Substackā€™s content policies as it relates to such documents. It is certainly too late for the US Government to contain the leak, as the images have by this point been shared, screenshotted, and downloaded countless times, but that does not preclude an attempt to limit its circulation via a whac-a-mole campaign of content deletion. In any case, desiring neither to violate US law nor run afoul of Substackā€™s content rules, prudence dictates that I ought not embed the images directly in this post, but they are not hard to find – the ā€œRus Fleetā€ Telegram channel has them up at the moment, for example. Use your own discretion.

While I will not be posting the leaked documents either here or on twitter, I would like to talk about them. If they are indeed authentic (and it appears that they are), they offer important insight into force generation and combat power in Ukraine – and perhaps even more importantly, into the intelligence framework that the Pentagon is working with. None of the items adduced paint a particularly rosy picture for either the AFU or its benefactors on the Atlantic seaboard.

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