QUOTES OF THE DAY

“Human nature being what it is, small loopholes are likely to be exploited until they become big ones, and big ones until they turn into financial disasters.”

Seth Klarman

“Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the position is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation.”

John Maynard Keynes

“As a rule, Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works.”

John Stuart Mill

“Booms start with some tie-in to reality, some reason which justifies the increase in asset values, and then — and this is the critical feature of speculative mood — the market loses touch with reality.”

John Kenneth Galbraith

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QUOTE OF THE DAY

“The government can always rescue the markets or interfere with contract law whenever it deems convenient with little or no apparent cost. Investors believe this now and, worse still, the government believes it as well.

We are probably doomed to a lasting legacy of government tampering with financial markets and the economy, which is likely to create the mother of all moral hazards.”

Seth Klarman

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I’M SURE IT’S DIFFERENT THIS TIME

  •  Professional investors have the highest allocation to stocks since the tech bubble.
  • Allocations to bonds have plunged from 25% to 15% since 2009.
  • Allocations to cash of 15% are at record low levels.
  • Margin debt is at all-time highs, 60% above levels during the dot.com boom and 25% above levels in 2007.
  • Complacency and trust in the Federal Reserve is at all-time highs as the VIX shows no fear.

The market is nothing but HFT machines programmed by Russians to do the same thing at the same time based on the same criteria. It works great when the algorithms all say to buy. What happens when all the machines decide to sell at the same time? There are no human beings with common sense involved in the markets. It’s just greedy corrupt fucks and their supercomputers. The game is rigged, but when the music stops the scramble for the last chair will be one to remember. It will happen suddenly, with no warning.

“Can we say when it will end? No. Can we say that it will end? Yes. And when it ends and the trend reverses, here is what we can say for sure. Few will be ready. Few will be prepared.” – Seth Klarman