As Sweden continues to enjoy a falling COVID-19 infection rate, leading health experts have suggested the country’s decision not to lock down or require masks has resulted in herd immunity, according to MarketWatch.
“Strict rules do not work as people seem to break them,” said Arne Elofsson, a professor of biometrics at Stockholm University, adding “Sweden is doing fine.”
Anders Tegnell, an epidemiologist involved in managing Sweden’s pandemic, thinks masks give a false sense of security: “The belief that masks can solve our problem is very dangerous.”
Prime Minister Stefan Löfven thinks voluntary social-distancing rules and not closing schools but banning gatherings of more than 50 people has been the right approach.
“Now there are quite a few people who think we were right,” he told a newspaper. “The strategy that we adopted, I believe is right — to protect individuals, limit the spread of the infection.” –MarketWatch
Sweden’s top expert on the coronavirus has warned that encouraging people to wear face masks is “very dangerous” because it gives a false sense of security but does not effectively stem the spread of the virus.
“It is very dangerous to believe face masks would change the game when it comes to COVID-19,”said Anders Tengell, who has overseen Sweden’s response to the pandemic while resisting any form of lockdown or mask mandate.
“Face masks can be a complement to other things when other things are safely in place,” Tengell added.
Figure 1 illustrates the daily mortality attributed to covid-19 in Sweden, New York, Illinois, and Texas. The figure plots the daily number of deaths per million population. This figure illustrates the rise and fall of deaths from covid-19 in four different policy environments. The data were obtained from Worldometer.
Sweden: The Control Group
Sweden (blue dots) has served as a control group to compare policies intended to decrease deaths from covid-19. Sweden has been unfairly criticized for its policy despite having an outcome more favorable than places with authoritarian lockdown policies. Sweden did not close its schools. Other than stopping gatherings of more than fifty people, the Swedish government left decisions of closing businesses, using masks, and social distancing to the Swedish people. The government encouraged the use of masks and social distancing, but there were no requirements and there were no penalties for those who declined to follow the advice. Mortality attributed to covid-19 hit a peak value of 11.38 deaths per day per million population on April 8, 2020. This mortality was matched on April 15, and mortality has decreased since then. Daily mortality has been less than one death per day per million population for the previous eighteen days. Cases are very low. For all practical purposes, the covid-19 epidemic is over in Sweden. Almost certainly herd immunity has been achieved in Sweden irrespective of any antibody test results. Testing is usually only for IgG antibody and the herd can become immune via IgA antibody or cellular mechanisms that are not detected by the usual testing. Whether covid-19 will reappear this next fall or winter remains to be seen.
New York: Locking the Barn Door Shut after the Horse Has Already Left
New York (brown dots) has been a catastrophe. On March 20, 2020, a full lockdown was implemented. Nonessential businesses were ordered to close. Workers in nonessential businesses were ordered to work only from home. Pharmacies, grocery stores, liquor stores, and wine stores were deemed to be essential and allowed to remain open. Restaurants and bars could only deliver to homes. In addition to the lockdown, nursing homes were ordered on March 25, 2020, to accept patients positive for the covid-19 virus in transfer from hospitals. On May 10, this order was changed such that patients had to test negative for the virus before being transferred to nursing homes, but the damage had already been done. By April 7, 2020, within three weeks of the nursing home order, a daily mortality of over fifty deaths per day per million population had been reached. This daily mortality rate was almost five times the peak rate observed in Sweden, where no lockdown was implemented.
The New York policy assumed that all human interactions carry the same risk of death by covid-19. The New York data clearly shows that interactions among young and healthy people have a much different risk than interactions between the young and elderly and interactions among the elderly. By facilitating the transmission of the virus from hospitals to nursing homes, the rate of spread within the elderly population was maximized, and any possible benefit from lockdown of the young and healthy population was rendered moot. The general population was kept locked down after the virus had been broadly disseminated among the elderly population. The decline of deaths from the peak levels in New York, with its harsh lockdown, has followed roughly the same time course as what has been observed in Sweden without any lockdown. It is unclear whether the lockdown interfered with herd immunity or not. This will not be known until after the economy and schools are completely reopened for at least a month.
Illinois: A Flattened Curve Led to More Deaths
Illinois (gray dots) has more subtle differences from Sweden than does New York. Illinois also implemented a harsh lockdown on March 20, 2020. There was no nursing home order as in New York. The daily mortality rate increased more slowly than it did in New York and Sweden, reaching a peak of over fifteen deaths per day per million population on May 17, 2020. The daily mortality has declined more slowly than it did in New York and Sweden, and it remains significantly higher than the rates in those places. The most likely explanation for the Illinois data is that the lockdown did indeed slow the rate of transmission among the young and healthy but also allowed a longer time for transmission from young people to elderly people. The lockdown appears to have made more deaths from covid-19 in Illinois than would have occurred without it. Almost certainly herd immunity has not been achieved and will not be achieved until the schools and economy are reopened.
Texas: The Ox Is Slow, but the Earth Is Patient
Texas (gold dots) had very few deaths following a less harsh lockdown than was implemented in New York and Illinois. Nonessential businesses were closed on March 31. Outdoor activities were permitted. Social distancing was advised but not required. Governor Abbott was criticized for not squeezing hard enough, but predictions that Texas health care would be overwhelmed by late April failed to materialize. Texas appeared to be a success story, with a much lower mortality, and the state began a phased reopening of the economy on May 1, 2020. By late June, however, cases of covid-19 were increasing and the daily mortality rate was creeping up. The general reopening was paused, and some relaxations of measures were rescinded on June 26, 2020. The Texas daily mortality rate hit a peak of over ten deaths per day per million population on July 31, 2020. The Texas mortality peak is almost bad as the peak rate seen in Sweden, but Texas still has a largely closed economy. Texans are debating whether schools should be reopened or not. Sweden does not have to worry about its schools, because it never closed its schools. Texas will eventually have to reopen its schools and economy. It would appear that covid-19 deaths were deferred rather than prevented by the lockdown. Although the overall covid-19 mortality is lower in Texas (293 deaths per million population) than in Sweden (570), the current daily mortality in Texas is much higher than in Sweden, so covid-19 mortality in Texas may catch up to Sweden over the next 30–60 days. Furthermore, the situation in Texas will likely get worse when the schools and economy are reopened, as they eventually must be. Like the ox and the Earth, the lockdown slowed the transmission of the virus among the young and healthy, but the virus appears to be very patient and will spread when it is able to.
Conclusions
The data suggest that lockdowns have not prevented any deaths from covid-19. At best, lockdowns have deferred death for a short time, but they cannot possibly be continued for the long term. It seems likely that one will not have to even compare economic deprivation with loss of life, as the final death toll following authoritarian lockdowns will most likely exceed the deaths from letting people choose how to manage their own risk. After taking the unprecedented economic depression into account, history will likely judge these lockdowns to be the greatest policy error of this generation. Covid-19 is not going to be defeated; we will have to learn how to coexist with it. The only way we can learn how best to cope with covid-19 is to let individuals manage their own risk, observe the outcomes, and learn from mistakes. The world owes a great debt to Sweden for setting an example that the rest of us can follow.
The model used to lockdown the United States predicted 96,000 deaths in Sweden if they didn’t lockdown. They didn’t lockdown and have had 5,783 deaths, with more than half in nursing homes. The “expert” scientists only missed it by 94%. And we continue to follow their advice. The stupid, it burns.
"Our model predicts that, using median infection-fatality-rate estimates, at least 96,000 deaths would occur [in Sweden] by 1 July without mitigation." ("We employ an individual agent-based model based on work by Ferguson") https://t.co/tL6HFBlBospic.twitter.com/2X7aRseNrN
Perhaps the biggest example of the Western media’s inherent biases surrounding its coverage of Sweden’s approach to tackling COVID-19. Plenty of media outlets decried the country’s “massive” fatality rate compared to its lockdown-favoring neighbors, but failed to add the context necessary to see that the difference was only a couple thousand deaths, and that Sweden’s per capita mortality rate was still lower than Britain’s, and other countries that favored lockdowns.
What’s more, in Sweden, deaths have declined nearly to zero. And since the country’s economy has remained open this whole time, there’s little risk of resurgence when whatever minimal restrictions are still in place are finally lifted.
Here in the United States, we have become inundated with tales of COVID-19 doom and gloom. In America, the mainstream narrative is rife with hopelessness. We are told that there is simply no way to stop this virus without repetitive lockdowns, healthy quarantine, even of asymptomatic individuals, and universal mask mandates. And even with all of those extreme policy measures put in place, the politicians and public health officials tell us that we will have to wait for a vaccine for the country to even think about our “new normal” following the COVID-19 pandemic.
There’s one country that they don’t seem to want to talk about – Sweden. And for good reason. Sweden debunks the hysteria.
Sweden shows how unnecessary all of the interventions to “fight” the virus are.
“In order to control public opinion of the masses, the ruling class should “regiment the public mind every bit as much as an army regiments [soldiers’] bodies.”
– Edward Bernays, Propaganda (1928)
“The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. …We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of. This is a logical result of the way in which our democratic society is organized. Vast numbers of human beings must cooperate in this manner if they are to live together as a smoothly functioning society. …In almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons…who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind.”
– Edward Bernays, Propaganda (1928)
Recently, the Western media has made a point to publish a plethora of stories about the public health disaster of Sweden’s no lockdown policy in order to deliberately discredit, in the minds of most people, the only science-based approach to covid19 undertaken by any nation in the world.
While the Covid-19 epidemic continues to drag on in the United States, it’s largely over in Sweden where fatalities have dropped to no more than 2 deaths per day for the last week.
Sweden has been harshly criticized in the media for not imposing draconian lockdowns like the United States and the other European countries. Instead, Sweden implemented a policy that was both conventional and sensible. They recommended that people maintain a safe distance between each other and they banned gatherings of 50 people or more. They also asked their elderly citizens to isolate themselves and to avoid interacting with other people as much as possible. Other than that, Swedes were encouraged to work, exercise and get on with their lives as they would normally even though the world was still in the throes of a global pandemic.
As soon as it became clear that the Swedish state had no plans to implement harsh lockdowns, global media organizations like the New York Times have implemented what can only be described as an ideological jihad against Sweden.
It is common to read articles stating that Sweden has one of the world’s worst death rates for COVID-19.
This, however, remains a matter of perspective.
Sweden’s total deaths per million in population as of July 14 is 549. That’s considerably lower than the deaths per million rate in the UK, which is 662, and in Spain, which is 608. In Belgium, the death rate is 884.
No government lockdown. No mask/muzzle requirements. 80% of the deaths were in nursing homes, just like the U.S. Virtually no one under 70 died from it. How do the geniuses at the CDC and the health “experts” in the states explain this phenomenon? They don’t. The NYT, Washington Post, MSNBC and CNN run propaganda stories about the terrible conditions in Sweden, because they know the sheep will believe it. Show these charts to your friendly neighborhood sheep.
Here’s the good news: You can shut down businesses or keep them open. Close schools or stay in session. Wear masks or not. The virus will make its way through in either case, and if we protect the elderly then deaths will be spared. pic.twitter.com/AVg0Vu8aH2
Why is the media so fixated on Sweden’s coronavirus policy? What difference does it make?
Sweden settled on a policy that they thought was both sustainable and would save as many lives as possible. They weren’t trying to ‘show anyone up’ or ‘prove how smart they were’. They simply took a more traditionalist approach that avoided a full-scale lockdown. That’s all.
But that’s the problem, isn’t it? And that’s why Sweden has been so harshly criticized in the media, because they refused to do what everyone else was doing. They refused to adopt a policy that elites now universally support, a policy that scares people into cowering submission. The Swedish model is a threat to that approach because it allows people to maintain their personal freedom even in the midst of a global pandemic. Ruling class elites don’t want that, that is not in their interests. What they want is for the people to meekly accept the rules and conditions that lead to their eventual enslavement. That’s the real objective, complete social control, saving lives has nothing to do with it. Sweden opposed that approach which is why Sweden has to be destroyed. It’s that simple.
Haven’t heard much bloviating from the MSM and The Chris Martensons of the world about the disastrous results from Sweden not locking down. I wonder why.
I await the arrival of the paid trolls to tell us how disastrous it was for Sweden to not lockdown. Kind of sad watching Chris Martenson, Mike Shedlock, Paul Craig Roberts, and Ben Hunt flailing about trying to convince people Sweden is a disaster death camp. 90% of their deaths were people over 70 years old and more than half were in nursing homes. Facts are inconvenient to those with a narrative to sell.
Sweden’s unique policy approach in this pandemic has been described as “freewheeling” in international news media, but it would be more accurate to call it balanced.
Johan Giesecke, a world-renowned epidemiologist and advisor to the Swedish Government, calls it “evidence-based.”
