TBP POLL OF DOOM

42 comments

Posted on 15th May 2013 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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Do you get the feeling there is something seriously wrong with the world right now? There appears to be a confluence of events that are in direct conflict. Capital markets are in disarray. Politicians are clueless and flailing about. Central Bankers have pressed their foot on the accelerator through the floorboard. Stock markets are hitting new highs. Real economic measurements are plunging. Corporations are slashing the hours of their workers. The entire Middle East is on the verge of revolution. Europe is in a deep depression and social unrest is reaching a crescendo.

I’m reminded of Vladimir Lenin’s quote about history:

“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”  

I have a feeling in my gut that we are getting very close to a week when decades of history will unravel and historic events will mark a dramatic turn in world history. It’s just a feeling. Somebody will do something stupid and all hell will break loose.

I have a feeling that Japan has lit the fuse. Their stock maket has now soared by 77% in the last seven months and is accelerating upward at a rapid pace. Meanwhile, their 10Year bonds have declined by 45% in the last five days. Surging interest rates in a country with a debt to GDP ratio of 250% is suicide. The Yen has declined by 26% versus the USD in the last 6 months and 8% in the last month. These are not normal changes. The Japanese are taking a reckless gamble that will end in the Prime Minister committing hari kari.

The other extreme oddity occuring across the globe is the continuing drop in gold and silver prices even though demand for physical gold and silver is off the charts. The U.S. Mint has run out of gold and silver coins. Countries are repatriating physical gold. It takes weeks to get silver coins from dealers. People in China and India are buying gold and silver in a frenzy. JP Morgan’s vaults have the lowest amount of physical gold in history. There is a valid concern that there is not nearly enough physcial gold and silver to back up all of the paper gold and silver obligations.

The citizens of countries across the world are losing faith in their political leaders. They have already lost faith in the bankers. They are losing faith in fiat paper currencies. The natives are growing restless. Americans are buying guns in record numbers. The government is attempting override the 2nd amendment and disarm the citizens. Their fallback position has been to buy up all of the ammunition and not allow the citizens to buy it. The government is conducting military “exercises” in cities across the country. DHS is arming local police forces with military style weaponry. DHS and the military are accelerating the proliferation and use of domestic drones in communities around the country. Surveillance of citizens is increasing.

All is not well below the surface. The men behind the curtain are nervous. Their “solutions” are failing. I believe they are preparing for a scenario the average person on the street cannot fathom. I’ve been wrong before and I hope I’m wrong this time, but I’ve got a bad feeling.

What do you think will happen in the next six months?

  1. Markets will rise, the economy will recover, gold and silver will continue to fall, and people around the world will become more optimistic about the future.
  2. Markets will flatten out, along with gold and silver. The status quo will remain in effect and there will be no dramatic world events to change the course of history.
  3. A worldwide currency crisis will be created by the grand Japanese experiment leading to plunging markets across the globe. Gold and silver will rise as the only safe haven. Surging interest rates will bring down developed nations across the globe. The Middle East will explode, with wars and revolutions. The U.S. will be the least affected by the worldwide turmoil and the USD will rise.
  4. It is revealed that there is no gold or silver backing up most of the paper in the world. There is a worldwide run on banks, creating havoc and confusion. The masters of the fractional reserve banking system circle the wagons and attempt to keep people from withdrawing their money and their gold. The politicians fall into line behind their banker puppet masters. People around the world begin to realize they have been screwed. Violence and revolution breaks out in countries around the world. Obama calls out the troops. There are skirmishes and battles in cities and communities around the country. The urban areas begin to burn as the FSA stop receiving their EBT deposits.
  5. Some combination of 3 and 4.
  6. Don’t bother me. I’m busy texting someone about the American Idol finale and updating my status on Facebook.

 

42 Comments
  1. KaD says:

    3 and 4

    15th May 2013 at 11:07 am

  2. Persnickety says:

    #5 (btw, KaD, #5 is a mix of 3 and 4).

    But the average American won’t understand it, and will be inclined to blame either white people or brown people depending on their political indoctrination.

    15th May 2013 at 11:14 am

  3. Calamity says:

    All the above. With a crisis there is still plenty of denial.

    15th May 2013 at 11:15 am

  4. Hollow man says:

    5

    15th May 2013 at 11:15 am

  5. Kill Bill says:

    6

    ~~~

    I would only be shocked when politicians stopped being clueless and flailing about.

    ~~~

    Old fart light bulbs just like they were back in 1879 Sold at Lowes and Home Depot

    http://www.feit.com/Vintage_Bulbs

    15th May 2013 at 11:23 am

  6. Administrator says:

    Calamity

    That movie looks hilarious.

    15th May 2013 at 11:29 am

  7. Calamity says:

    Admin,

    I saw the trailer this morning. I was look for someway to work it into TBP. Seems very fitting.

    15th May 2013 at 11:32 am

  8. Eddie says:

    I suspect we’re headed for some version of number three. Probably accompanied by a(nother) world-wide deflationary collapse in all asset classes.

    The US stands the best chance of damage control because the dollar is still the world’s reserve currency at the moment…and we still have oil hegemony going for us.

    I’m talking about the next six months, not the long haul.

    15th May 2013 at 11:34 am

  9. AWD says:

    Of course 3 & 4 will come to pass before long.

    You aren’t the only one with these feelings. Just about everyone you read is saying the same thing. Nobody can believe what is going on, that it continues to go on, and that something hasn’t happened yet. The handwriting is on the wall. Reality is being ignored, especially on Wall Street.

    The stock markets can’t make new records forever, despite the bullshit you hear on CNBC and the MSM. Our president is showing us what an incompetent evil fool he is, and what type of government we have (corrupt, tyrannical and fascist).

    Europe is slowly imploding, every country except for Germany already in depression territory. Japan will go bust the quickest, however. Bernanke is destroying the dollar, and making stock holders fabulously wealthy. All is well, debt doesn’t matter, bad news is good. It’s insanity.

    When a sane person looks at what is passing for reality, it gives them a very bad feeling. Many stock market crashes begin in commodities, unless bonds collapse first. In the meantime, the stock market is making new records today. Hooray! Too bad it isn’t going to matter much when you cash out, and your cash isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on.

    Uncharted Territory Cannot Go On Forever
    Via Mark Grant, author of Out of the Box

    The greatest disconnect in the world today is the underlying economies of the world and the markets; all of the markets. This river is wide and getting wider given the money that the central banks are pushing downstream. The flood has reached all of the markets, Real Estate, the banks, many corporations, any and all borrowers with our incredibly low interest rates, but it has had little impact on the Main Streets of the planet. There is, in fact, a bubble of epic proportion.

    The reversal will come from an event or from the moment that the central banks reverse position or from the fall in the demand for goods and services as consumers/investors have less money to buy things. The one truism that can be counted on is that our current situation will not go on forever as many on Wall Street would have you believe. The one other long established truth that you can count on is that when this reversal comes that the “whoosh” of people trying to rush through the exit doors will be pronounced and startling.

    15th May 2013 at 11:39 am

  10. treemagnet says:

    5. Its like a Baskin-Robins 31 flavors of bad news. Where is there one example of something macro-economic that’s going well? And I don’t mean some “now everyone can drive a new GM” bullshit.

    15th May 2013 at 11:39 am

  11. Kill Bill says:

    I read where Bangledash is getting hit by a Cyclone and some big ass Volcano may be about to erupt in Mexico.

    15th May 2013 at 11:42 am

  12. harry p. says:

    #5 is the most probable.

    The first thing I thought of while reading this was this scene from V for Vendetta

    http://youtu.be/iUkgNvvF7Vk

    Everything is too interconnected so when a single precise flick can start the dominoes falling along with what most people consider civility and what is “normal”

    15th May 2013 at 11:42 am

  13. sensetti says:

    #7 TPTB will let the status quo roll on as long as it will. When the sidewalk ends they will kick off a major war, the draft will be reinstated including females. XYM’s will find out how much sand they have.
    In the mean time the standard of living continues to deteriorate, suicide rates and crime continue a never ending ascent.
    Prepare like your life depends on it………………

    65d5fb58c4652b158148dc15c904601a.jpg

    15th May 2013 at 11:55 am

  14. Administrator says:

    harry p

    I was thinking of the same scene as I wrote it. It’s my favorite scene in the movie.

    15th May 2013 at 12:01 pm

  15. harry p. says:

    admin,
    i figured you had it in mind, you have used that scene and others from that movie many times over the years.

    to anyone else here who hasn’t seen V for Vendetta, very good movie and more prescient by the day, one of the few “comic book” movies that is as good as the source material.
    I also recommend the graphic novel that the movie originated from, if you are into that sort of thing (like I am).

    15th May 2013 at 12:10 pm

  16. Administrator says:

    The Unintended Consequence Of The Soaring Dollar

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/15/2013 11:10 -0400

    It seems the S&P 500′s recent strength is somehow comforted by the fact that the USD is riding high on its cleanest dirty shirt meme at 34 month highs but unfortunately for the Chinese (and their practical peg to the USD), things are a little less fun than in the old mercantilist manipulation days. The implicit benefit that dollar flows appear to be getting (via the wealth effect in the US stock market) is not there in China (lower equity ownership); in fact, the rising Yuan is drastically hurting them as despite export orders remaining in growth mode, the China Daily reports that “most exporters in the delta region have told us that the rising yuan value has led to a big profit decline.” Of course, the exporters are calling for a weaker Yuan but as the nation struggles with an exploding shadow banking system, bubbles in real estate and credit, and inflation concerns it knows that any implicit effort to weaken the CNY will create a surge in capital inflows and fuel further imbalances. China remains in the middle of the ‘currency war’-driven inflation rock and ‘sagging growth’ hard place; and with two 91-day bill issues in the last week (in addition to repo) the clear signal (masked by export data fudges) is that China is much more worried about inflation than it is letting on (and has little ability to manage hot money inflows).

    Via China Daily,

    The rising value of the yuan has made it difficult for exporters in the Pearl River Delta region to make money, even though they saw an increase in orders in April, an industrial survey said on Tuesday.

    “Exports from the delta region increased a lot last month, but exporters have found it hard to make profits given the yuan’s appreciation,” said Xiao Feng, deputy general manager of One Touch Business Services Co, a Chinese provider of foreign-trade services.

    “However, most exporters in the delta region have told us that the rising yuan value has led to a big profit decline,” said Xiao, without elaborating on how much profits have declined.

    The People’s Bank of China last week set the daily reference rate of the yuan against the dollar at 6.1980, the highest in 19 years. Indicators show that capital flows into China have accelerated in recent months.

    “Some companies have borrowed in dollars, converted them into yuan and bought into yuan-denominated assets, waiting for the Chinese currency to strengthen further. The inflows have brought about pressures for the yuan exchange,” Liu said.

    With the introduction of measures to crack down on hot money inflows, there is a possibility of a weak yuan exchange rate in the near future

    Zhang Zhenghu, deputy general manager of the overseas sales branch of Gree Electric Appliances, said the company had to increase the price of its products early this year because of the yuan appreciation

    “Yuan appreciation burdens most Chinese exporters heavily. We had to increase the price to make a sustainable business profit in the overseas market,” Zhang said.

    15th May 2013 at 12:24 pm

  17. AWD says:

    Many have imagined republics and principalities which have never been seen or known to exist in reality; for how we live is so far removed from how we ought to live, that he who abandons what is done for what ought to be done, will rather bring about the end of reality

    Niccolo Machiavelli

    h0FD9C939

    15th May 2013 at 12:29 pm

  18. Stucky says:

    Relatively speaking, everything was just fine in Hiroshima on August 6th, 1945 even as Little Boy floated towards its destination. Until 10:34 AM. When it detonated and changed everything in one brief moment of time.

    That’s where we are at TODAY. I don’t know the time of day. I do know it’s “August 6th” in America.

    I pick # 4 … even though I think the picture painted is too optimistic. 7 million will die. And that’s just in New Jersey.

    15th May 2013 at 12:42 pm

  19. Stucky says:

    Admin

    Exactly what poll number is this? (I need to enter it into my spreadsheet)

    15th May 2013 at 12:45 pm

  20. Administrator says:

    Stuck

    It is poll number W1

    My numbering system is based on a CIA decoder ring I got in a box of Frosted Flakes.

    15th May 2013 at 12:52 pm

  21. John Coster says:

    I guess 5, but who knows? What does seem the case is that governments in general, certainly here in the US, are functioning as auction houses whose task is to sell off dwindling national assets to the “elites” before the shelves are stripped bare. Only lip service to the financial and environmental crises confronting humanity. None of the necessary structural changes are even considered.

    15th May 2013 at 1:03 pm

  22. Gayle says:

    Admin

    You really know how to cheer yourself up on your birthday. I hope you make it to 51.

    15th May 2013 at 1:10 pm

  23. Richard Wax says:

    None of them. Why? Because it isn’t time.

    15th May 2013 at 1:18 pm

  24. varnelius says:

    I suspect the market is going to crash in the next month (correction–next 2 weeks).

    The silver/gold situation is troubling also, could be the beginning of the end of the fiat regime. I suspect the collapse of fiat is a little further out. Either this fall, or next year in the spring.

    15th May 2013 at 1:55 pm

  25. NickelthroweR says:

    Greetings,

    I see any option but 4 happening. The day the FSA stops receiving their free ride will be the very day that the United States ceases to exist and, just like the Roman Empire, our decline will be a slow burn and the government still wields a lot of resources to maintain the FSA. We’re years if not decades away from that.

    I sort of take Kunstler’s view of the whole thing – things that break wont get fixed. Roads, bridges and dams will continue to crumble with the resources needed to maintain them slowly vanishing. Our electrical grid will slowly fall apart as well and rolling blackouts will probably become a part of life. Healthcare and sanitation will take the same route.

    We’re going to coast along with what we’ve got until it doesn’t work any longer.

    15th May 2013 at 2:00 pm

  26. AWD says:

    Admin is always, usually right. He’s been pointing out the bogus sub prime auto market for some time. Well, he’s right again. So, when Admin has a bad feeling, better watch out.

    As Auto Sales Rebound, So Does Something Else
    By Philip LeBeau | CNBC

    An increase in auto repossessions due to borrowers defaulting on their car loans is raising new questions about whether the auto industry is going too far selling new cars and trucks to those with subprime credit records.

    According to Experian Automotive, the percentage of auto repos in the first quarter jumped 16.9 percent, and the average charge-off for bad loans jumped more than $600 to $7,401.

    Combined the two figures suggest dealers and lenders are selling cars to those who are not a good credit risk, but not everyone sees it that way.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/auto-sales-rebound-does-something-111044449.html

    15th May 2013 at 2:31 pm

  27. PeaceOut says:

    I agree admin, things are fucked up! There is no logic to the current state of the economy. There are too many outside forces at work. There is no balance or stability people can rely on. All signs point to chaos. Check #5.

    15th May 2013 at 3:32 pm

  28. bb says:

    None of the above, Christ returns ,saves all us from ourselves.

    15th May 2013 at 3:39 pm

  29. GreasedUpWillie says:

    Our current economy is something along the lines of a modern corn field. Toxic chemicals (government) prevents the growth of new plants (new productive enterprise), leaving the GMO corn (large corporations), and rapidly evolving resistant insects (FSA) as the only entities that can survive in the field. That corn field can last and somewhat produce for a while, with massive outside fertilization (QE infinity), but it isn’t stable, and it certainly isn’t sustainable. Eventually a new bug (boomers retiring), disease (market crash), drought (rising interest rates), or something is going to wipe it out. But after the field is wiped out, and the inputs cease, eventually the new plants come back.

    15th May 2013 at 3:58 pm

  30. Bruce says:

    More and more its seems like folks just want the shit to hit the fan and get on with it. So would I. But I’ll bet things will drag out a good bit longer. I’ll bet we are still looking at our doom charts this time next year and amazed that the music is still playing.

    I’m think most likely things will slowly get worse and worse right up until the Ojaculators last year in office. Then different things might happen.

    If the democrats stay in control then the steady decline of the nation and the steady rise of the their FSA mutual support group, tyranny and widespread clusterfucking will continue to drag on and on.

    But If things are bad enough at the end of Ofuckwads term it might be the republicans chance to run the nation. If those one dimensional morons take over then there’s a good chance everything could go over the cliff fast and hard. Republicans don’t fuck around with fucking up like the pisswillie democrats. It’s one thing to put up with living in a hopelessly declining nation run by viscous nasty bastards but it’s quite another to live in a hopelessly declining nation run by stupid viscous nasty bastards and things could go wild.

    No mater what when the time comes I just hope the people remember to kill the Bankers.

    One thing I’m curious about and think would be a good sign that things will blow up in the fairly near future is if the politicians all of sudden in a very public way start to distance themselves from the bankers and start blaming them for all the problems. It would be an indication that they could be going into survival mode by attempting to direct the peoples possible wrath at the bankers and financial people. Since the bankers and politicians are so intertwined if they start cuttin’ heads something big is sure to be afoot. If it does happen rather than celebrate the bankers finally getting nailed it might be good to go into your next higher stage of alert.

    However it works out the time of Doom is surely coming. In fact the Doom has already arrived and has been here for a while but we’re only knee deep. People will figure it out whenever it’s gets up to their necks.

    15th May 2013 at 4:05 pm

  31. card802 says:

    One line from Calamity’s video said it all.

    “It’s too late, you’re already in the hole.”

    I’ll pick #5 but I think with a currency collapse PM’s will be worthless, at least for a while. People will want food and protection above all other things. This is going to be ugly.

    15th May 2013 at 4:39 pm

  32. Ron says:

    More printing and more debt. It just isn’t bad enough to crash yet. Its more like a death from a thousand cuts.

    15th May 2013 at 6:12 pm

  33. ecliptix543 says:

    But but… how do we fix the ecomonee? Put toilet water on it?

    Brought to you by Carl’s Jr.

    15th May 2013 at 9:33 pm

  34. Anonymous says:

    some version of #4 will most likely play out in most major economies. It will most likely be driven by a financial crisis along deflationary lines — something like, hey look, there isn’t any money in the banks! I agree that Japan is a likely place for things to start — the chnages they are inducing in their finanacial markets are too significant to be covered by all the existing derivatives contracts. Some big institutions will suddenly be discovered to be profoundly bankrupt. The ripple effects could be enormous. Bernanke will try to reflate things in one last all-out blizzrd of credit creation, wut will most likely get sucked down the black hole of debt implosion.

    1930′s, here we come!

    15th May 2013 at 9:41 pm

  35. Bob says:

    That last cheerful Anonymous comment was from me.

    15th May 2013 at 9:42 pm

  36. Der Mole says:

    #8. Stuckey will apply for an EBT card and use it to feed the homeless and the ghetto folk. Dogs and cats will consider living together as they observe this phenomena.

    15th May 2013 at 9:52 pm

  37. Steve Hogan says:

    I’m thinking #4, except SNAP card payments and other “free” goodies will continue. Too bad it won’t buy anything. That’s when you break out the popcorn and watch some real entertainment.

    15th May 2013 at 10:32 pm

  38. Snap says:

    When the free shit stops it begins. Doesn’t really matter what part of the world.

    15th May 2013 at 10:36 pm

  39. Gubmint Cheese says:

    The choices provided are narrowly focused, but given its someones birthday and I ‘m not going to dookie on it. He’s gotta make it to 51.

    Put 1-6 thru a blender, add a dose of honey boo boo and a hefty helping of “dancin with the tards”, add a longer cure time to come to fruition, and I think you have it.

    You can get a good feeling of what’s expected to happen based on all the Federal think tanks like RAND, SAIC and others which help guide policies and procurements.
    Follow the new Federal Executive orders issued, GSA purchases, and policies undertaken taken by the Feds. They hedge their bets based on all this analysis.

    These beltway bandits like RAND are under various contract vehicles to constantly run senarios and provide probabilities and countermeasures. Most of this is never seen the night of day to the serfs.. Its like socio-economic war games.

    Follow what the Gubmint does, not what it says.

    15th May 2013 at 11:01 pm

  40. Thirteener says:

    I’m betting on #5…so you may as well throw on some good music, grab a drink and enjoy!!

    15th May 2013 at 11:20 pm

  41. Brazil66 says:

    “What do you think will happen in the next six months?.” No one picked scenario #2? Holy shit, NOTHING happens on a six month time line.

    15th May 2013 at 11:54 pm

  42. Novista says:

    #4 but first, in the U.S. where already somebody does something stupid, like the NC killer cops video, it’s followed by a Dorner event on steroids but done smart. Vigilante picking them off, slowly, one by one. The story won’t go away, the reaction goes viral and it starts happening many other places.

    Already there is an undercurrent of simmering rage, even as some party on, and that’s like whistling in a graveyard, hoping the bad stuff just goes away but deep down, knowing it won’t.

    On a minor tangent, why are many with iToys not smart enough to use the technology to the limit. The cop playbook will always be to confiscate the evidence of wrongdoing and intimidate witnesses. But damn, there are wi=fi enabled cameras that will upload stills and video even as they are shot. Two key presses and the local evidence is gone — but the genie is out of the bottle.

    16th May 2013 at 1:01 am

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