Make no mistake about it, without plentiful, cheap, and easy to access oil, the United States of America would descend into chaos and collapse. The fantasies painted by “green” energy dreamers only serve to divert the attention of the non critical thinking masses from the fact our sprawling suburban hyper technological society would come to a grinding halt in a matter of days without the 18 to 19 million barrels per day needed to run this ridiculous reality show. Delusional Americans think the steaks, hot dogs and pomegranates in their grocery stores magically appear on the shelves, the thirty electronic gadgets that rule their lives are created out of thin air by elves and the gasoline they pump into their mammoth SUVs is their God given right. The situation was already critical in 2005 when the Hirsch Report concluded:
“The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.”
In the six years since this report there has been unprecedented oil price volatility as the world has reached the undulating plateau of peak cheap oil. The viable mitigation options on the demand and supply side were not pursued. The head in the sand hope for the best option was chosen. The government mandated options, ethanol and solar, have been absolute and utter disasters as billions of taxpayer dollars have been squandered and company after company goes bankrupt. The added benefit has been sky high corn prices, dwindling supplies and revolutions around the world due to soaring food prices. The last time the country went into recession in 2008, the price of oil plunged from $140 a barrel to $30 a barrel in the space of six months. I’d classify that as volatility. We’ve clearly entered a second recession in the last six months. So we should be getting the benefit of collapsing oil prices.
But, a funny thing happened on the way to another oil price collapse. It didn’t happen. WTI Crude is trading for $87 a barrel, up 23% since January 1. Unleaded gas prices are up 54% in the last year and 43% since January 1. Worldwide oil pricing is not based on WTI crude but Brent crude, selling for $113 per barrel, only down 10% from its April high of $125. The U.S. and Europe consume 40% of all the oil in the world on a daily basis. Multiple European countries have been in recession for the last nine months. The U.S. economy has been in free fall for six months.
Some short term factors will continue to support higher oil prices. The Chinese continue to fill their strategic petroleum reserve, Japan is still relying on diesel generators for electricity post-tsunami, and the Middle East is developing a love affair with the air conditioner. But, it’s the long term factors that will lead to much higher oil prices for myopic oblivious Americans.
John Hussman describes the situation on the ground today based upon six economic conditions presently in effect:
There are certainly a great number of opinions about the prospect of recession, but the evidence we observe at present has 100% sensitivity (these conditions have always been observed during or just prior to each U.S. recession) and 100% specificity (the only time we observe the full set of these conditions is during or just prior to U.S. recessions).
With 40% of the world in or near recession, how come oil prices are still so high and much higher than last year, when the economies in Europe and the U.S. were expanding? The number of vehicle miles driven in the U.S. is still below the level reached 43 months ago and at the same level as early 2005. The price of a barrel of oil in early 2005 was $42. The U.S. is using the same amount of oil, but the price is up 112%. It seems the U.S. isn’t calling the shots when it comes to the worldwide supply/demand equation.
It would probably be a surprise to most people that U.S. oil consumption today is at the same level it was in 1997 and is 10% lower than the peak reached in 2005. This is not a reflection of increased efficiency or Americans gravitating towards smaller vehicles with better mileage. Americans are still addicted to their SUVs and gas guzzling luxury automobiles. It’s a reflection of a U.S. economy that has been in a downward spiral since 2005.
1996 | 18,476.15 | 3.89 % |
1997 | 18,774.07 | 1.61 % |
1998 | 18,946.01 | 0.92 % |
1999 | 19,603.83 | 3.47 % |
2000 | 19,717.92 | 0.58 % |
2001 | 19,772.60 | 0.28 % |
2002 | 19,834.31 | 0.31 % |
2003 | 20,144.82 | 1.57 % |
2004 | 20,833.01 | 3.42 % |
2005 | 20,924.36 | 0.44 % |
2006 | 20,803.93 | -0.58 % |
2007 | 20,818.37 | 0.07 % |
2008 | 19,563.33 | -6.03 % |
2009 | 18,810.01 | -3.85 % |
If the U.S. isn’t driving oil demand in the world, then why are prices going up? There are three main factors:
- Dramatic increase in demand from China and other developing countries.
- A plunging U.S. Dollar
- Peak oil has arrived
Surging Developing World Demand
The Energy Information Administration issued their latest forecast and it does not bode well for lower prices:
Despite continued concerns over the pace of the global economic recovery, particularly in developed countries, the US Energy Information Administration expects worldwide oil consumption to increase this year and next spurred by demand in developing countries. US oil consumption, however, is forecast to contract from a year ago. Worldwide oil demand, led by China, will increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2011 to average 88.19 million b/d and by 1.6 million b/d in 2012, outpacing average global demand growth of 1.3 million b/d from 1998-2007, before the onset of the global economic downturn.
China is now consuming over 9 million barrels per day. This is up from an average of 7 million barrels per day in 2006. Platts, a global energy analyst, put China’s 2010 figures at 8.5 million barrels per day, up 11.43% from the previous year. The forecast for China’s crude throughput in 2011 is an average of 9.24 million barrels per day up 8.5% from 2010. In the first seven months of this year, total crude throughput stood at average of 8.95 million barrels per day.
Standard Chartered Bank predicts that, by the year 2020, China will overtake all of Europe as the second largest consumer of oil in the world, and should catch up to the U.S. by the year 2030 as China’s demand continues to rise while U.S. demand is expected to be flat. Chinese crude imports grew 17.5% in 2010 to 4.79 million barrels per day. China is importing 55% of its oil today versus 40% in 2004.
China’s oil consumption per capita has increased over 350% since the early 1980s to an estimated 2.7 barrels per year in 2011. Consumption per capita has risen nearly 100% in just the past decade. Oil consumption per capita in the U.S. currently ranks among the top industrialized nations in the world at 25 barrels per year. However, today’s consumption levels are approximately 20% lower than they were in 1979. The chart below paints a picture of woe for the United States and the world. China overtook the United States in auto sales in 2009. They now sell approximately 15 million new vehicles per year. India sells approximately 2 million new vehicles per year. The U.S. sells just over 12 million new vehicles per year. In China and India there are approximately 6 car owners per 100 people. In the U.S. there are 85 car owners per 100 people.
They call China, India and the rest of the developing world – Developing – because they will be rapidly expanding their consumption of goods, services and food. There will certainly be bumps along the way, as China is experiencing now, but the consumption of oil by the developing world will plow relentlessly higher. China isn’t the only emerging country to show big increases in per capita consumption. The growth in consumption for several other countries far outpaces China. Consumption per capita in Malaysia has nearly quadrupled since the mid-1960s. Consumption in Thailand and Brazil has more than doubled to roughly 5.7 barrels and 4.8 barrels per year, respectively.
Developed countries, especially those in Western Europe, have experienced substantial declines in oil consumption. Today’s per capita consumption in Sweden is roughly 12 barrels per year, down from 25 barrels per year in the mid-1970s. France, Japan, Norway and U.K. all use less oil on a per capita basis than they did in the 1970s. These countries have been able to drive down the consumption of oil by taxing gasoline at an excessive level.
Americans pay 43 cents in taxes out of the $3.70 they pay at the pump for a gallon of gasoline. A driver in the UK is paying $4 per gallon in taxes out of the $9 per gallon cost. Gasoline costs between $8 and $9 per gallon across Europe today. The extreme level of gas taxes certainly reduces car sizes, consumption and traffic. Too bad the mad socialists across Europe spent the taxes on expanding their welfare states and promising even more to their populations. Maybe a $6 per gallon tax will do the trick. Forcing Americans to drive less by doubling the gas tax is a quaint idea, but it is too late in the game. Europe is still made up of small towns and cities with the populations still fairly consolidated. Biking, walking and small rail travel is easy and feasible. The sprawling suburban enclaves that proliferate across the American countryside, dotted by thousands of malls and McMansion communities, accessible only by automobiles, make it impossible to implement a rational energy efficient model for moving forward. We cannot reverse 60 years of irrationality. Even without higher gas taxes, the price of gasoline will move relentlessly higher due to the stealth tax of currency debasement.
A Plunging US Dollar
The US dollar has fallen 15% versus a basket of worldwide currencies (DXY) since February 2009. This is amazing considering that 57% of the index weighting is the Euro. If you haven’t noticed, Europe is a basket case on the verge of economic disintegration. The US imports a net 9.4 million barrels of oil per day, or 49% of our daily consumption. Our largest suppliers are:
- Canada – 2.6 million barrels per day
- Mexico – 1.3 million barrels per day
- Saudi Arabia – 1.1 million barrels per day
- Nigeria – 1.0 million barrels per day
- Venezuela – 1.0 million barrels per day
- Russia – 600,000 barrels per day
- Algeria – 500,000 barrels per day
- Iraq – 400,000 barrels per day
These eight countries account for over 70% of our daily oil imports. You hear the “experts” on CNBC declare that our oil supply situation is secure because close to 60% of our daily usage is sourced from North America. The presumption is that Canada and Mexico are somehow under our control. There is one problem with this storyline. US oil production peaked in 1971 and relentlessly declines as M. King Hubbert predicted it would. Mexico will cease to be a supplier to the U.S. by 2015 as their Cantarell oil field is in collapse. Most of the oil supplied from Canada is from their tar sands. Expansion of these fields is difficult as it takes tremendous amounts of natural gas and water to extract the oil.
The rest of the countries on the list dislike us, hate us, or are in constant danger of implosion. When the Neo-Cons on Fox News try to convince you that Iraq has been a huge success and certainly worth the $3 trillion of national wealth expended, along with 4,500 dead and 32,000 wounded soldiers, you might want to keep in mind that Iraq was exporting 795,000 barrels of oil per day to the U.S. in 2001 when the evil dictator was in charge. Today, we are getting 415,000 barrels per day. Dick Cheney was never good at long term strategic planning.
We better plant more corn, as our supply situation is far from stable. Maybe we can install solar panels from Obama’s Solyndra factory on the roofs of the 65 Chevy Volts that were sold in the U.S. this year, to alleviate our oil supply problem. The reliability and stability of our oil supply takes second place to the price increases caused by Ben Bernanke and his printing press. The average American housewife driving her 1.5 children in her enormous two and a half ton Chevy Tahoe or gigantic Toyota Sequoia two miles to baseball practice doesn’t comprehend why it is costing her $100 to fill the 26 gallon tank. If she listens to the brain dead mainstream media pundits, she’ll conclude that Big Oil is to blame. The real reason is Big Finance in conspiracy with Big Government.
Ben Bernanke is responsible for Americans paying $4 a gallon for gasoline. Zero interest rates, printing money out of thin air to buy $2 trillion of mortgage and Treasury bonds, and propping up insolvent criminal banks across the globe have one purpose – to deflate the value of the U.S. dollar. The rulers of the American Empire realize they can never repay the debts they have accumulated. They have chosen to default through debasement. It’s an insidious and immoral method of defaulting on your obligations. Let’s look at from the perspective of our two biggest oil suppliers.
A barrel of oil cost $40 a barrel in early 2009. The U.S. dollar has declined 30% versus the Canadian dollar since early 2009. The U.S. dollar has shockingly declined 20% versus the Mexican Peso since early 2009. How could the mighty USD decline 20% against the currency of a 3rd world country on the verge of being a failed state? Ask Ben Bernanke. Our lenders can’t do much about the continuing debasement of our currency, but our oil suppliers can. They will raise the price of oil in proportion to our currency devaluation. Since Bernanke’s only solution is continuous debasement, the price of oil will relentlessly rise.
Peak Oil Has Arrived
“By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD. At present, investment in oil production is only beginning to pick up, with the result that production could reach a prolonged plateau. By 2030, the world will require production of 118 MBD, but energy producers may only be producing 100 MBD unless there are major changes in current investment and drilling capacity.” – 2010 Joint Operating Environment Report
We’ve arrived at the point where demand has begun to outpace supply and even the onset of another worldwide recession will not assuage this fact. World oil supply has peaked just below 89 million barrels per day. Supply has since fallen to 87.5 million barrels per day, as Libyan supply was completely removed from world markets. The International Energy Agency is already forecasting worldwide demand to reach 90 million barrels per day in the second half of 2011 and reach 92 million barrels per day in 2012. The IEA warns that “just at the time when demand is expected to recover, physical limits on production capacity could lead to another wave of price increases, in a cyclical pattern that is not new to the world oil market.”
The world is trapped in an inescapable conundrum. As supply dwindles, prices increase, causing global economies to contract, and temporarily causing a drop in prices, except the lows are higher each time. The drill, drill, drill ideologues do nothing but confuse and mislead the easily led masses. We have 2% of the world’s oil reserves and consume more than 20% of the daily output. We consume 7 billion barrels of oil per year.
Drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska and areas formerly off limits in the Outer Continental Shelf will not close the supply gap. The amount of recoverable oil in the Arctic coastal plain is estimated to be between 5.7 billion and 16 billion barrels. This could supply as little as a year’s worth of oil. And it will take 10 years to produce any oil from this supply. The OCS has only slightly more recoverable oil at an estimated 18 billion barrels and the BP Gulf Oil disaster showed how easy this oil is to access safely. The new over hyped energy savior is shale gas. The cheerleaders in the natural gas industry claim that we have four Saudi Arabias worth of natural gas in the U.S. This is nothing but PR talking points to convince the masses that we can easily adapt. The amount of shale gas that can be economically produced is far less than the amounts being touted by the industry. The wells deplete rapidly and the environmental damage has been well documented. And last but certainly not least, we have the abiotic oil believers that convince themselves the wells will refill despite the fact that there is not one instance of an oil well refilling once it is depleted.
I wrote an article called Peak Denial About Peak Oil exactly one year ago when gas was selling for $2.60 a gallon. I railed at the short sightedness of politicians and citizens alike for ignoring a calamitous crisis that was directly before their eyes. Just like our accumulation of $4 billion per day in debt, peak oil is simply a matter of math. We cannot take on ever increasing amounts of debt in order to live above our means without collapsing our economic system. We cannot expect to run our energy intensive world with a depleting energy source. There is no amount of spin and PR that can change the math. Un-payable levels of debt and dwindling supplies of oil will merge into a perfect storm over the next ten years to permanently change our world. The change will be traumatic, horrible, bloody and a complete surprise to the non-critical thinking public.
“In the longer run, unless we take serious steps to prepare for the day that we can no longer increase production of conventional oil, we are faced with the possibility of a major economic shock—and the political unrest that would ensue.” – Dr. James Schlesinger – former US Energy Secretary, 16th November 2005
We were warned. We failed to heed the warnings. If we had begun making the dramatic changes to our society 5 to 10 years ago, we may have been able to partially alleviate the pain and suffering ahead. Instead we spent our national treasure fighting Wars on Terror and bailing out criminal bankers. Converting truck and bus fleets to natural gas; expanding the use of safe nuclear power; utilizing wind, geothermal, and solar where economically feasible; buying more fuel efficient vehicles; and creating more localized communities supported by light rail with easy access to bike and walking options, would have allowed a more gradual shift to a less energy intensive society.
We’ve done nothing to prepare for the onset of peak oil. Until this foreseeable crisis hits with its full force like a Category 5 hurricane, Americans will continue to fill up their M1 tank sized, leased SUVs, tweet about Lady Gaga’s latest stunt, and tune in to this week’s episode of Jersey Shore. Meanwhile, economic stagnation, catastrophe and wars for oil are darkening the skies on our horizon.
“Dependence on imported oil, particularly from the Middle East, has become the elephant in the foreign policy living room, an overriding strategic consideration composed of a multitude of issues. …. Taken in whole, the National Energy Policy does not offer a compelling solution to the growing danger of foreign oil dependence. … Future military efforts to secure the oil supply pose tremendous challenges due to the number of potential crisis areas. ….. Economic stagnation or catastrophe lurk close at hand, to be triggered by another embargo, collapse of the Saudi monarchy, or civil disorder in any of a dozen nations.”– America’s Strategic Imperative A “Manhattan Project” for Energy
Admin – yep I forgot to mention water requirements. Another small environmental issue.
Hey, Ivan –
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llpoh,
It may be 8:15 PM in colma’s time zone, and I’m not sure your time zone.
But it is 11:15 PM on the East coast and I am no youngster anymore.
Cancer surgery and chemo slowed me down a few years ago, and I can no longer roll with the Big Boys when it comes to pulling a marathon.
Smokey – you make up with quality what you are losing in quantity. The Big C sucks. Hope all well now.
Smokey: Ivan does believe in pixie dust… I think he’s snorted his share.
I also believe that llpoh has chased him away for the night.
Tomorrow’s another day. If this turns into 9-11 week, I imagine it will be Peak Retard that will require action in the form of epic TBP beatdowns.
Nothing works better than a good diversion.
Good luck boys
Nice analysis Crazy
Please explain HOW thousands of demolition experts worked for weeks setting the explosives in the buildings and every one of them has kept quiet despite the unbearable guilt of murdering 2,750 innocent Americans.
Crazy – We await your words of wisdom. You might want to consult DP, but he is busy in the barn. I’m sure he can help you cut and paste 8 links to conspiracy websites.
LLPOH,
All is well now.
Good night all.
[img[/img]
Ivan will return…
[img[/img]
Ivan will remember…
If they are loud enough they get killed.
Some take money and look away.
Some keep their job and look away.
Some start blogs and take liscence.
Crazy
Killed by whom? Dick Cheney? The Bilderbergers? Fred Flintstone? Alien rulers?
You are such a blithering non-thinking retard that you think thousands of co-conspirators would all keep quiet for 10 years about the biggest mass murder in the history of the world?
How do you function on a daily basis with that level of delusion running through your pea brain?
Good news for those who may be ready for it. The free floating USD (fiat) was never developed for the sole purpose of being just a currency. It’s only a currency within the fiat paradigm. It’s ultimate role is as a real-time measure for bullion where bullion is the money. The dollar acts as the real-time bridge between fiat currency pricing and payment made in gold/silver weight. This is why the fixed peg had to be severed for gold to be able to enter a new paradigm of liquidity. I dare say that Gresham’s law may soon become obsolete because Gresham’s law was predicated on FIXED gold values such as what we saw during Bretton Woods before 1971.
Follow “the script”. Some evils are necessary in God’s plan.
therooster-
Me thinks that you were educated beyond your intelligence at some point
Do I even want to hear a translation?
CI – great line. Really.
Damn, dude – you are seriously fucked up.
You get your articles posted here, then troll the comments for somebody (ANYbody) that express a different opinion, then you jump up and down with all your insults and foul language.
When I lived in the city I’d hear dogs barking. Some of them barked for an hour or more. I used to ask myself “why the fuck would a live animal invest so much time into something as ridiculous as barking ??”
After being treated to your bullshit here, I actually appreciate the dog a little more. At least he duzn’t try to make his barking look like independent thought.
So … pretty please – with sugar on top: shut the fuck up already.
.
.
.
Oh, yeah … and don’t let anybody go around MANUFACTURING YOUR OPINION !!
DP
Are you too much of a pussy to post as yourself? You have to use ZH and Anonymous?
You are still the master of the cut and paste. It’s easier than showing everyone you have an IQ of 50 and can’t formulate a coherent sentence. It must be that raging case of syphilis.
Solving 9-11: The Deception that Changed the World
As you read Christopher Bollyn‘s E-Book you will understand just exactly who and what foreign political interest actually attacked the WTC complex on September 11, 2001.
These foreign political interests with their traitors (George Washington referred to these types as tools and dupes) inside our U.S. political establishment attempting to deceive the world in order to pursue their foreign-sponsored political will and expansionist policies in the Middle East.
As you read, the real perpetrators of the 9-11 attacks will become apparent, and they will be identified.
The motive will become clear, and you will see this peg as a natural fit. You will understand that the US is a country filled with ―ambitious, corrupted, and deluded citizens (in positions of political power, office holders, judges, the press, etc.) who devote themselves to the foreign nation, and have sacrificed the interests of their own country with the appearance of a virtuous sense of obligation.
You may even find yourself supporting a new investigation into the attacks of 9-11.
So what else should one do when he or she finds that their own government has attempted to deceive them, in order to pursue unofficial policies through lies, fraud, deception, and cover up.
For Christopher Bollyn and honest people, the Scriptures are clear. ―And have no fellowship with the unfruitful works of darkness, but rather expose them.‖ (Ephesians 5:11.
http://www.bollyn.com/public/Solving_9-11_-_The_Deception_That_Changed_The_World.pdf
Do some serious reading… quit being 9/11 dupes… or worse… a person who assists and protects those wanted in connection with a crime… an accessary after the fact .
DP
This is a very good article, but I am a little confused by this paragraph. Elsewhere on this website are articles celebrating Ron Paul and his “libertarian” philosophy. I wonder if people reading this understand that adaption of most of these policies are and have long been opposed by the Republican party (including Ron Paul), because to implement them requires strong, forceful government action that goes against the short term interests of many people with money. This very article makes fun of the government for the loans that were given to Solyndra, but then later in the article, suggests that “expanding the use of solar where economically feasible” would be a wise. The problem with solar, however, is it’s NOT economically feasible with conventional energy priced as low as it is now.
“If we had begun making the dramatic changes to our society 5 to 10 years ago, we may have been able to partially alleviate the pain and suffering ahead. Instead we spent our national treasure fighting Wars on Terror and bailing out criminal bankers. Converting truck and bus fleets to natural gas; expanding the use of safe nuclear power; utilizing wind, geothermal, and solar where economically feasible; buying more fuel efficient vehicles; and creating more localized communities supported by light rail with easy access to bike and walking options, would have allowed a more gradual shift to a less energy intensive society.”
Please don’t slam the door on your way out
What don’t you understand with the term “where economically feasible”? Did I say that the government should be picking winners and losers? NO I DID NOT. If there is a market for geothermal, solar or wind then the private sector will do it. If not, they will not do it. That is hard for liberal do-gooders to understand because they need to control and direct everyone and everything. We’ve had decades of command and control central planning. How’s that working out for you. The freaking Dept of Energy was created in 1978 to wean us off foreign oil. BWAAAHHHHHAAAA!!!!
The paragraph you are referring to states that we have a problem and if we were thinking long-term, would have adapted our behavior to our circumstances.
You clearly prefer the Obamanistas to save you. Did you buy a Chevy Volt this year?
We use about 80 million plus barrels of oil every day. If you had all that oil in one place it would be a LOT of oil! We use it every single stinkin day. We extract that much every day too.
So sooner or later demand will outstrip the supply. And when it do, it will make believers out of the folk who think there is an endless supply of oil.
Oil would have lasted us a lot longer if we had not wasted so much of it.
I look forward to peak oil. We need peak oil. We are all just rats running on a wheel. The average working stiff gets up early, fights fuckin traffic, busts his ass all day for a company or boss who don’t care about him, fights traffic again, and then gets ready to do it all again the next day. And for what? So we can “consume”.
I say, let Peak Oil set in and then lets replace Martin Luther King day with M. King Hubbert day.
Okay there old guys… maybe you’re not full of shit. You are, however, pretty easy to set off with a vacuous, non-specific statement about somebody being full of shit. 🙂
Come on in!! The water’s fine!!
No goatfucking allowed.
More people were struck by lightning than bought a Chevy Volt this year.
More people were tortured to death in overseas American prisons than bought a Chevy Volt.
More people hit the lottery jackpot than bought a Chevy Volt.
More people have sex with farm animals than bought a Chevy Volt.
More people got tossed from a Southwest flight than bought a Chevy Volt.
More people bought .50cal sniper rifles than bought a Chevy Volt.
More people believe Congress has our best interests in mind than bought a Chevy Volt.
More people had sex change surgery than bought a Chevy Volt.
On a good note, LESS people were shot in the face by Dick Cheney than bought a Chevy Volt, so I guess that’s progress, right?
Administrator says: “We are spending $1 Trillion per year on our wars. We are spending $2.3 Trillion on entitlements.”
Are you including social security and medicare in this? If so, remember payroll taxes are being collected for these entitlements. Nothing is being collected in payroll taxes for our wars. I’ll bet that if payroll taxes were being collected to pay for these wars we would see mass demonstrations in the street because no one is getting anything in return for these wars. If you say we are getting security; are you saying Homeland Security, the Patriot Act, and TSA is worth the money and our lack of Liberty, for war?
As I said in former posts, our government has been captured by others with a different agenda. That is why entitlements go to the wrong people (in our way of thinking) is going on. I think we have a chance of capturing it back if we replace the entire congress with new faces; if people wake up.
However, even you have to admit that the economy is so bad with so many people out of work that paid their taxes all their lives, that these people deserve some form of entitlement for their taxes paid in, just to get by until employment opportunities come back.
For me, if I were young again, I would head toward the southern hemisphere to work and live until this country turns around. This world order we have in the Northern Hemisphere is breaking down fast. Peak oil is the least of our worries right now. Our political system is breaking down. Fukushima power plant melt down is radiating the entire northern hemishere while the news on it is in blackout. I suspect Japan will become a third world country again after the people there kill off all their politicians and TEPCO in revenge when the damage to humans there can no longer be hidden.
It appears there is no solution to stop the financial meltdown we will experience. Government spending is so uncontrolled it cannot be stopped without stopping computer programs that control it. We do not realize how dependent we are on computer programs that control the government’s spending patterns. It cannot be turned off or changed fast enough to avoid financial chaos. We have no human control of the situation so demanding the politicians in Washington DC to do it is like pissing in the wind. You want the truth Mr Administrator: We are F*#ked by the very system we created. The President and the Congress is just a dog & pony show entertaining us with the illusion that they are in control, when in reality the only thing these people control is the electronic ballot box. We are screwed by the system. It has to collapse so we can start over.
So entitlement spending cannot be stopped, but war spending can be when we bring our troops home. This is my point when talking about reducing war spending. If employment can be increased with more taxes coming in then this is the only way to balance the budget. But this won’t happen because government is in the way.
Another point I would like to make with the present system in place: This system being run on computer programming & control requires much less people employed. To balance the system people would only need to work a three day work week. This means people would need to be paid more per hour to make ends meet. It could be done. It means that investors and stockholders would make less of a return on their investments.
Enjoy your Labor Day because it may be the last one you enjoy for years. I am on my way to the lake to do the same. Good Day.
Thunderbird
I agree with you 100% that the military spending needs to be dramatically cut. All of the entitlement programs are paying out more than they are bringing in. The payroll taxes collected were already spent. There are only IOUs in the lockbox.
Enjoy the lake.
Hey Thunderchicken – It seems like you’re preaching to the choir with most of that last post. I’m not exactly sure why you’re taking shots at Admin… but you two can sort that out…
I completely agree about the computer programs running (ruining) everything. Up until this past week, I had been a customer of Allstate for my car insurance for right at 20 years. Apparently, when I made the online payment for July, I underpaid by $1.68. Nobody told me this so I logged on to pay the bill last Thursday and it said my policy had been terminated as of the 8th of August and I owed them $1.68. 20 fucking years and I don’t even get a phone call or anything from my supposed ‘agent’? I sent a colorful and scathing email to the agent and a couple days later got a reply that there was nothing they could do about it since the computer showed it was cancelled. A 20 year customer (with no crashes and one speeding ticket from ’96, mind you) shitcanned over a buck sixty-eight with no communication, no warning, no nothing. By a goddamned corporate-fuck computer in some basement in Illinois. The agent finally called me Saturday evening to tell me she got the policy reinstated and the $1.68 cleared but by then, I had already gotten a new policy with a different company – with much more coverage, no deductibles, and 40% less on the premium. I told her she and Allstate were both fired as of that moment due to gross disrespect for the humanity of the customers and general apathy towards being competitively priced. Fuck ’em. Raw. With a stick. … Right in the ear. … Twice.
ecliptix
SSS, LLPOH, HZK and the rest of the faux capitalists would tell you that the Corporation is always right. It’s their company and they can choose to boot your sorry ass out the door.
SSS and LLPOH will be on shortly to tell you that Allstate is the best run insurance company in the world and they whole heartedly support the actions taken by Allstate, since you are clearly a deadbeat.
The paying customer has no rights. You’re just lucky they didn’t find out your pants sag. They would have booted you years ago.
We have allowed oil to become vital to virtually everything we do. Ninety per cent of all our transportation, whether by land, air or sea, is fuelled by oil. Ninety-five per cent of all goods in shops involve the use of oil. Ninety-five per cent of all our food products require oil use. Just to farm a single cow and deliver it to market requires six barrels of oil, enough to drive a car from New York to Los Angeles.
Jeremy Leggett
Peak oil is at hand with low availability growth for the next 5 to 10 years. Once worldwide petroleum production peaks, geopolitics and market economics will result in even more significant price increases and security risks. To guess where this is all going to take us is would be too speculative. Oil wars are certainly not out of the question.
US Army Corps of Engineers, September 2005
“Surveying the available alternative energy sources for criteria such as energy density, environmental impacts, reliance on depleting raw materials, intermittency versus constancy of supply, and the percentage of energy returned on the energy invested in energy production, none currently appears capable of perpetuating this kind of society.”
— Richard Heinberg
“Where the United States is in regard to oil: most of the untapped reserves we have left are smaller, deeper, farther offshore, less permeable, increasingly sour, and generally more expensive to bring to market. And the more we drill, the more this will be the case…The faster we use up the little oil we have left, the quicker OPEC will be the only one at the table with any chips left. Strategically, this is a loser’s strategy.”
— Timothy Kailing
“OPEC, over the last 20 years, has not managed to add any additional capacity. So we’re in a world today where we’re going to need a vast amount of additional energy, and we’re utterly dependent on countries that in the past generation have added absolutely no additional capacity.”
— Steven Lee, oil analyst
“Technology is great, but it can’t find what’s not there. In the last five years, we consumed 27 billion barrels of oil a year, but the oil industry discovered only three billion barrels a year. So only one barrel was replaced for every nine we used!”
— L.B. Magoon report for U.S. Geological Survey
“The idea that we industrialized humans are immune to the natural laws that have restrained growth in other species—and humans in past social regimes—is to me so self-servingly blind as to be morally reprehensible.”
— Richard Heinberg,
“We are not good at recognizing distant threats even if their probability is 100%. Society ignoring [peak oil] is like the people of Pompeii ignoring the rumblings below Vesuvius.”
— James Schlesinger, former US Energy Secretary
“We can evade reality, but we cannot evade the consequences of evading reality.”
— Ayn Rand
It’s a bit tough to pull off the saggy pants routine while freeballin’. That shit can get me arrested around here.
It is their company and they can kick me out at their leisure, just as I can fire them at my leisure. My issue with this instance and several others – primarily bank software that stacks withdrawals and deposits specifically to deliberately create overdrafts when the deposits clearly preceded the withdarwals (fucking BoA cocksuckers… and Compass after they got bought out by Santander) – is the use of computer software to determine account status without any review by an actual person or a viable avenue for redress by the customer in question, as well as aligning the software to always try to screw over the customer for as much money as possible then make it incredibly difficult to find a human that has proper access to fix anything. This, I believe, is why so many companies want you to set up automatic billing with them so they can fuck you in the middle of the night with direct access to your accounts and take whatever the computer decides it wants.
Also, when I called the Allstate 800 number to find out what the fuck happened, I got forwarded to some guy in India I could barely understand and who did not have the proper access to do anything at all other than tell me to call back later. That was the final straw with Allstate.
Count 1. GUILTY: Outsourcing call center jobs. Sure they don’t pay much but they pay SOMETHING, and we can use those kind of jobs for young kids just starting out. older people that got wiped out in the market crash, and disabled people that need work that isn’t physically demanding.
Count 2. GUILTY: Blatant disregard for customers. Living in a state with mandatory insurance laws and some fucking crazy-ass fuckwit drivers that like to hit other people’s things, it was something of a surprise to find out I’d been driving around for three weeks without insurance. If I had gotten in a crash, that would have been bad enough. If I had hurt somebody else, that would have been catastrophic. Fuck them for being pricks over a couple bucks and putting me at that level of risk.
ecliptix
You need to pay attention to SSS and LLPHOH. Repeat after me.
THE COMPANY IS ALWAYS RIGHT!!!!
COMPANIES NEVER FUCK UP!!!!
COMPANIES CAN DO WHATEVER THEY LIKE!!!!
This is publicity for Allstate. Remember those words of wisdom from LLPOH: Any publicity is good publicity.
Sheesh. I don’t see what the problem is.
ecliptix543,
Maybe if you’d learn how to use a fucking calculator, it would not be necessary for them to cancel your sorry, delinquent, nonpaying ass.
Just fucking with you.—That type of shit, the cancellation, is indicative of deeper problems in corporate America.
Tell you what though. It is a virtual certainty that when you motherfuck them (Allstate) on a blog like this, then on a relative basis, THEY are taking the worst of the incident, not you.
At a minimum, hundreds, probably THOUSANDS, of people get to see how Allstate doesn’t give a god damn fuck about their customers.
That shit resonates on a blog like this. Who will sign up with those cocksuckers after reading that post here?
PS, on a different subject entirely—-Please don’t mistake an ass-whipping that I have deferred, for being an ass-whipping that I have canceled.—Tread lightly—the time is drawing nigh.
Proceed with the ass-whipping at your peril, gramps. Colma has said many times that your spankings are quite memorable, and that you should really start charging at least $10 for the happy ending. You’re missing out on some extra retirement income with that. And, he says you should probably use lotion next time… your wrinkled, decrepit old cock-knockers are too rough on his delicate skin.
Yep. FUCK ALLSTATE. I’m not going to disclose the replacement I chose or recommend any particular company as I see most all insurance as legalized racketeering, but if anyone has Allstate, look around at some others and compare rates if you haven’t recently.
Allstate eat shit.
Peak oil,create an artificial shortage that only makes oil producers more profit.Just imagine a board room in the 1960,s where theyre talking about future demand and someone says we need to build more refinerys then anouther says what happens if we dont?well there would be increased demand and we well have a problem keeping up,so anouther says hey a shortage we can charge more and not build a new refinery,they all laugh. My friend worked in long beach harbor and an engineer showed him on a map where there was a 300 year supply of oil for the whole usa.Who the fuck knows how much oil is really in the ground.
ronnie
Great storyline. I love storylines. They’re so much easier to regurgitate than a fact based analysis. Are you still workin on that?
Eecliptix, reeling from the timeless cornholing he received on the “Cry Me A Fucking River, Bradely” thread, delivers an unprovoked attack on a slumbering Colma.
Luckily, it’ll take more than that to be re-entered in my Punk Book.
Don’t get too excited, though, I’m prone to have a change of heart.
Colma,
Agreed, that was an EXTREMELY cowardly assault. Truth be known, he slipped it onto the thread praying that you would miss it.
Ecliptix543 is no doubt panic-stricken by now.
Worried about BOTH of us.
As he should be.
When he’s finished getting his ass served to him on Call Of Duty by foul-mouthed eight year old boys, return extra-bitter, though somewhat sedated from the blunts he buys off of Haitian rasta-do’s at the corner swamp.
In the 2008 recession, oil prices did not peak until July 2008, whereas the recession started in December 2007. If we are in a recession, when did it start? I could argue May, August, or even September. So you get you oil price collapse in Q4 ’11 or Q1 ’12, by these metrics.
Also, you’re under-estimating China’s demand. The country will have the capacity to build 31 million cars by 2013. Our current sales are running around 12 million units. See my article “EIA: The China Syndrome”. http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2010/06/eia_the_china_s.html
In Obama’s Labor Day radio address he implored that roads and bridges need rebuilding in the U.S. This is probably true, however I seemed to remember an $800 billion stimulus that turned out to be “not so shovel ready.”
Being well past peak oil production, we are going to go into more debt to build/re build roads (that we have probably already paid for multiple times). Fucking Idiot. Japan essentially paved their entire country and they are still stuck in a rut. This is the same thinking from 8 decades ago. It didn’t work then, it won’t work now. Hey but do it anyway, my gold and silver are only going to get more valuable.
Its too bad that the discussion of Peak Oil includes the nut jobs that posted here. I won’t forward the forward the link in fear my friends will think I went bonkers, goats and all. I don’t think it was mentioned here, but its really not how much potential oil we have, its how fast can we get it. Its the flow rate stupid. Liquid fuel is the basis of our advanced societies. We have used the spice (i like that analogy) here in the United States more so than any other nation. We have eliminated the sense of geographic distance, and we will pay for that dearly. I’ve been studing everything oil for the past 4 years, and have investigated all the standard responses, heavy oil, tar sands oil, shale oil and gas, bio, alternative energies, you name it, I’ve spent time reading it. Notice no mention of the abiotic oil. Get serious. There is no way we will replace the utility and energy density of gasoline and diesel. NO WAY!! We have a problem of epic proportions coming at us and people don’t get it. Of course when the financial system collapses, all the nay sayers will say, “See, no peak oil”. Oh well, I think I’ll gas up my new beamer with premium and enjoy a good ride with Pink Floyd The Wall blasting away. It is totally awesome what hydrocarbon man has done with technology !!! Enjoy it while you can.
MajorMocambo
This is tame compared to the vitriolic nutjobs who attacked the article on Zero Hedge.
Denying peak oil doesn’t make it not so.
The epic financial collapse that started today will drive oil prices lower, but not as low as last time. The lows will always be higher than the previous lows.
Humanity WILL survive Peak Oil …. it will just be with a few billion less of us.
And there’s nothing wrong with that … unless one of those fuckers is ME !!
Stucky
I believe your a bit light on the “few”. The ecologists are going to love this, back to ecological equilibrium.
Admin comes out swinging. Whenever he is on a rampage he adds “Neo” to the front of a descriptive – neo-capitalist, neo-libertarian, etc. It is a lot like how Democrats start calling people racist whenever they cannot make a salient argument.
And of course, seeing how SSS and I smacked down his Green Day shit yesterday, he is holding a grudge (and waiting for the swelling to go down). He somehow compares an airline controlling a dress code and upholding standards to a company abusing a long-term and highly profitable customer. Kinda like trying to drive from NY to Boston via LA, don’t you think?
Allstate, based on the facts presented, did not do the right thing. I actually thought there were laws governing this type of thing – ie a formal requirement to notify re insurance cancelation. Maybe I am wrong there. In any event, they did they wrong thing.
The last Stucky comment sounds like RE.
LLPOH
Is that all you got. Did you go to the David Pierre school of debate. Your assanine Southwest arguments apply exactly to the Allstate case. Admit it. You’ve been crushed and obliterated by your own line of reasoning.
Not panicked here, not stoned (but not for lack of trying), and there are no video games allowed in my house. If there has ever been a more complete waste of time than video games… they don’t increase hand-eye coordination. They just make fat fuckers by the millions!
@ecliptix543: one of these days, we are going to have to close the gap and have a beer.
MA
Jimmy Quinn,
Your articles are both on point & well researched. I’ve enjoyed them a great deal over the past few years.
I find it curious that you dismiss the 9/11 theories so thoroughly. I feel we would both agree that the U.S. government at all levels is hopelessly corrupt.
Is it so unbelievable that the U.S. government & its agencies would create a false-flag event to march into oil rich Iraq? Consider the nature of your current post. The world is running out of oil.
At the very least, I feel the government allowed the events to occur. Look at the liberties lost since 9/11 with the passage of the Patriot (snort) Act.
As for building 7, it was the least damaged of the lot. Far worse damaged buildings at the World Trade Plaza still stood on September 12th.
No one will ever convince me that Building 7 fell neatly, and squarely into its footprint without some help. No demolition expert would ever be convinced of it either.
Ever wonder what happened to the Enron & Worldcom criminal proceedings? The evidence was evicerated when Building 7 fell.
In times of universal deceipt, speaking the truth is a revolutionary act. These are those times.
We can agree to disagree on 9/11. I enjoy your posts, keep up the excellent work.
Funny thing about quoting sources,its like polls,it all depends on where theyre comeing from and what results they want.When i see articles about global warming or peak oil the first thing that comes to mind is how the people who push it well profit off it,taxs?or i think about ever increaseing ways to control people.I like it better when someone i worked with for years tells me about working around oil rigs and the inside info they got.One good thing i got out of trucking was to travel the country and talk to so many people,the closer you get to washington dc the more fucked up it is,so many rules and laws and regulations.The folks on the east coast have been fucked for so long they dont even need lube.So whats this got to do with anything?what does the price of oil have to do with the supply?Its a contrived shortage that jacks up profits and control of people.
ron
Your problem is you post whatever pops into your head. Try thinking. Try doing some fact finding. I know its hard, but you can do it.
I bet you could even put spaces between your sentences if you put your mind to it.
“You are such a blithering non-thinking retard that you think thousands of co-conspirators would all keep quiet for 10 years about the biggest mass murder in the history of the world?”
The biggest mass murder in the history of the world?
You really need to read more admin.
You sound like Bill O’Rielly when you get in the comments section.
Scared shitless that your opinion may be questioned.
Stick to your articles, they are quite good and appreciated.
Crazy
Your name fits.
Honestly, you people need to cheer up! Who cares if we are running out of boil? boils are unsightly and painful, especially if you get them on your face.
Oh, you said “Oil”? never mind.
David Pierre is back – with exactly the same drivel as he had 3 years ago. People, DP is a ward of the state – doesn’t do anything but sit in the shack and collect government checks and beat off to porn. Don’t waste a moment of your time on this dimwitted bonehead. He can copy and paste with the best of them. As 2-time TBP Douchebag Of The Year, we do owe him some thanks for hours of entertainment as we beat him senseless. He was just too stupid to realize that we were just letting him post so we could laugh at him.
Jim
Great commentary. You are such a great writer. Look forward to more featured articles.
There is a wealth of knowledge and technology that will very quickly fill the void when cheap oil runs out. Check this site: http://www.knowledgepublications.com
The question is why aren’t feasible replacement technologies in use today? They have been around for 60+ years…could it be that the Govt-Industrial-Media complex needs to find a way to keep the war machine operating at full capacity?
We all can get ourselves educated and out of the “system” a little at a time if we really want to become truly free!
Stoneman85
Could you please give us a list of technologies that will quickly fill the void when cheap oil runs out? We use 7 billion barrels of oil per year to keep our society functioning.
Stoneman85
Are you associated with that website?
You are saying that hydrogen is our solution? I’m not buying the books, so maybe you can summarize how hydrogen can run our car, trucks, airlplanes, tanks, etc.
The technologies are provided in the link I included with the original post…we are a very resourceful people and I think there will be much innovation due to the need as it becomes very acute. I don’t think it will be easy, and yes I do agree that we will be in for very hard times, mostly since alternative energy technology is being suppressed. If our Government really gave a rats @$$ about solving this problem it could be done…that is my main point.
I am not associated with that web site…I came across it during my own journey to find alternative ways to create power. I am still in the learning stage and have not proto-typed anything yet.
Interesting fact is that there were thousands of cars fueled with bio-mass generated H2 during WW2 (mostly Europe). After WW2, that technology went by the wayside with cheap oil. Also, most waste water treatment plants are self-powered from the bio-mass gasses produced.
I have a background in naval nuclear propulsion which only means that I know how to boil water with neutrons to make a propeller turn…I have to figure out the rest.
I have been reading your site for the past 6 months and do look forward to your posts…Just got my “We Are Doomed” mug today!!
Stoneman85
Matt Simmons was working on trying to create ammonia fuel from sea water when he died. I hope someone comes up with something soon. Good luck in your efforts.
Admin – claiming victory isn’t the same as actual victory. I kicked your ass and you know it. Comparing SW and Allstate is a joke. Give it up.
As far as ‘all I got’ – I am like Milton Berle – I only take out enough to win.
Admin … “assanine” … as·i·nine/ˈasəˌnīn/ …
llpoh
Pot, kettle, black?
Thats all you got,put spaces between words?
Whenever there is a story about some poor fucker living in a big city surrounded by scumbags,your situation comes to mind.Oh and the omega man movie.
Stoned Man, I think admin eased off you a bit. If you do some calculations on how much energy is contained in 19 million barrels of oil per day, you will quickly come to the conclusion that there is nothing that can or will replace it. Our financial system is based on that 19 million barrels a day. Ouch!! Game over!! Man-kind will survive, just at a much lower energy consumption per capita. Shit, I really like just sitting behind my computer screen making money. I once thought about going off-grid, raising goats and chickens, permaculture farming, bee hives. What an idiot I am. Why not just enjoy what time we have left. Filler up with premium please.