The article reporting that 29% of Americans believe armed rebellion is in our future has me wondering which path this Fourth Turning is likely to follow over the next 15 years. The American Revolution Fourth Turning was a conflict against an external foreign power. The Civil War Fourth Turning was a domestic conflict between factions within the country. The Great Depression/WWII Fourth Turning was again a conflict against foreign powers. All of the Fourth Turnings had financial issues as a catalyst for the future conflict. Today is no different. This Fourth Turning began in September 2008 with the Wall Street created financial collapse. The perpetrators have not been brought to justice.
Do Fourth Turnings alternate between external conflict and internal conflict? Or, will this Fourth Turning be something completely different? Based on what I’m observing, I’m coming to the conclusion that there will be violent clashes within this country. They would likely not begin until the financial system implodes again. I believe the system will not hold together through the rest of the Obama presidency. We are five years into this Fourth Turning. The regeneracy that binds people together has not yet occurred. It doesn’t mean all people will be united. The Battle of Bull Run united the Union and the Confederacy against each other in a match to the death.
I’d like to know what you think.
What type of event will mark the major conflict of this Fourth Turning?
A. A civil insurrection against the Federal government by individuals, groups or states.
B. A major world war involving Europe, Asia and the Middle East.
C. Domestic chaos, riots, and looting followed by regional wars in the Middle East.
D. Nuclear annihilation of the planet by the U.S., China and Russia
E. Bernanke’s master plan will work and economies across the world will return to normal. We’ll all sing Kumbaya.
F. The Fourth Turning is nothing but a bunch of mystical crapola and American exceptionalism will win the day.
C followed by A followed by B. Should be a real mess.
B, and I think the USA will get more and more statist over the next 80 years until the next 4th turning, at which point Civil War+Nuclear War is going to happen.
PS: My wife was telling me about ideas she was having the other day about generations and such, and I just ended up laughing. She had stumbled across S&H generational theory without ever having heard about it. We are going to order The Fourth Turning on Amazon as soon as bills are paid.
A hearty “thank you and you definitely make a difference” to Mr. Jim Quinn.
A: I look at the Arab Spring as the direction we are going.
C, B & A.
“An armed conflict – class war, sectional war, religious war, or war for oil – will be waged at some point and fought to the finish.”
———— James Quinn
G. Jesus returns, taking a good share of america’s morons with him.
The United States will suffer insurrection and secession, and ultimately will break up into smaller, easier-to-manage pieces. Some of this will happen because people will it so- states will secede, and there will be spot insurrections, but mostly this will happen because we will no longer be able to afford the scale or complexity of our current operations, and we sure as hell won’t be able to carry layers of federal, state, and local agencies and bureaucracies.
I’ve always considered it to be a major structural flaw of this nation, built in at its inception, that we have not one, but at least three, and often four or five layers of government, and multiple taxing authorities, to support, and to write laws and rules that conflict with each other and make living life and doing business impossibly complex and costly. Worse, this complexity often tricks us into believing we can sustain the unsustainable and inveigles us into bitin off much more than we can chew in the way of future obligations.
However, as our society simplifies, much that even a die-hard Libertarian survivalist living on a subsistance farm takes for granted, will disappear. Bye bye not only Social Security and SNAP cards, but bye bye Bureau of Reclamation and all the megadams and irrigation systems in the desert states, bye bye interstate highways, bye bye trade pacts with other countries, bye bye dozens of other systems and programs that tens of millions of people rely on not only for cushy pensions and large paychecks, but for subsidies for almost every industry in the country, and the mega infrastructure that has enable people to build cities with 2 million people or more in the middle of the desert.. or live in splendid isolation in flammable forests and other edgy environments, safe in the knowledge that help is always at hand and an interstate highway with gold-plate maintenance is there to escape on.
We’ll get back to the basics, really fast. We’ll start getting really local again, too. Time to do all that now. Get to know your county, your town, your city, your isolated mountaintop. We all never think about where our excellent, safe tap water or our paved streets or our sanitary sewers come from, and how hard it was to get this stuff into place to begin with, or how bad life becomes without it. Get to know where all the services you take for granted come from and consider how you’d replace them. Learn how much it costs to maintain this stuff and who is responsible for doing it, and how we’d keep minimal systems running in any hamlet, town, or city without a line of responsibility and authority for funding and running this stuff- without people who are responsible.
Yeah, the next 20 years are going to be interesting.
Zara – I’m praying for you. Not because I actually want you to be blessed, just because I know it will piss you off.
I think this turning will be a internal battle.
As the pension funding problems and the entitlement funding problems persist we’ll first have class warfare (Domestic chaos, riots, and looting) as more and more will look to the government for free shit, the rest of us will be tapped out and both side will play us against each other.
As we fight there will be some type of marshal law and maybe forced gun confiscation.
Followed by the newly formed lower class to battle (civil insurrection against the Federal government) with the newly formed elite political/banker class.
We lose the fight as more and more side with the powerful elite class.
A or C, not much different. I’m in agreement with Chicago999444. This experimental empire has run its course, and much like the Soviet Union the eventual collapse will be remarkably swift. I think the US right now is about where the USSR was in 1988 or so. Basically business as usual but an awful lot of cracks appearing in the dam. Many parts of the country are telling DC to stuff it, but using only words and gestures for now, while the domineering parts of the country (looking at you, NYC) are as haughty and arrogant as ever, much like French royalty in 1786. This tense peace won’t last forever. The martial law in Boston may have been just fine and dandy with many people in Boston, but try that trick in Texas or Arizona and it will be instant carnage. And it won’t surprise me if that’s how the excitement starts.
The most unsetttling prospect is the very real threat of another world war, and I feel we are setting up for one. The world is lining up ALMOST exactly the same way that it did in the 30s, the differences being the hames of the players.
How will we line up? Will it be China, N Korea, and Russia against the rest of us? Or will we line up with China, Japan, and Western Europe against Russia and the ME? Or, will we, Western Europe, and Japan square off against everyone else?
There are a lot of possibilities, but they will all add up to the same thing- this country will be in a far less favorable position relative to its enemies or allies than it was in 1941. Back then, we were the technological leader and had the most productive manufacturing sector in the world. More, we were the world’s principal oil producer and exporter. Now, though, we have almost NO oil left, and almost NO manufacturing, and have even sold away sensitive technologies and helped arm our enemies, something no sane country does. We are financially destroyed and we no longer have the beautiful, extant cities, prosperous small towns, and thousands of traditional farms we had then. Worst of all, we have sold ourselves- our manufacturing and our most sensitive technologies- to a country that is at the core, our enemy.
My only comfort is that I’m closer to the end of my life than the beginning. Yes, yes, I’m a boomer and I’m sure y’all blame me and mine. But I certainly have never supported the policies that have fatally weakened and impoverished this country- they predate my generation’s ascent to power by at least a generation, and most date back to the 30s and 40s. Moroever, I don’t hear many gen x or Y or m spokespeople offering any real alternatives that would help us reverse the course we are on, that of asset-stripping ourselves and our country in order to continue consuming 25% of the world’s resources, a course we committed to before I was even born. No one from my generation or any other wants to relinquish the boons and comforts that come with being the denizen of our greedy empire, and until we do, we’re not going to change anything about the way we do anything here.
C followed by A, with no B. Most of the large empire-built nations (US, Canada, China, Russia, EU, Africa, ME) will break up into various combinations of their component parts. As aDmin says, most of the wars will be internal and localized. They will be no less vicious because of their smaller scale. There may well be a number of nukes set off.
A……………with some B and C thrown in. Some states will break up, some will become more regional having common interests.
Once we repudiate our federal debt, the country will down size quickly. Life will become much harder, and the weak and old will die off sooner.
I don’t have a bug out bag, but I do have 12 young chicken, a large garden, gold, stable food hoard and lots of amunition. I can still work a eigth hour day, but I am afraid that will come up short of what is needed to survive when the SHTF.
When it’s all said and done there is really, truly only one thing we can do.
C, but could be in reverse order
good chance then followed by A & B, not necessarily in that order
Then fair chance of limited use of nuclear weapons either as false flag events or for real.
JJ3 says:
“Zara – I’m praying for you. Not because I actually want you to be blessed, just because I know it will piss you off.”
and yet he is entirely correct: but God has chosen the foolish things of the world to shame the wise,
C
Book it.
btw http://www.gunbot.net/
Stop whining that there is no ammo available
After reading these comments:
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On a positive note, no one has selected D.
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@Admin – Realistically I don’t think Option D will happen because the ultra-rich make more money off of normal warfare. Nukes are just too damned cost effective. While the world is desperate, its not desperate enough for the puppet politicians to risk crossing their rulers.
D. Nuclear annihilation of the planet by the U.S., China and Russia
Some type of “annihilation” is inevitable. I won’t guess when … except to say I don’t see how life-as-we-know-it can continue another century.
Let’s talk about Hafnium. It’s an element of the periodic table with symbol Hf and atomic number72. Hafnium is used chiefly in the control rods of nuclear reactors, for example, in submarines, mainly because of its very high neutron-absorption capacity (about 600 times that of zirconium). In addition, it has very good mechanical properties and excellent corrosion-resistance.
Extractable hafnium will disappear for good around 2020 or soon after. You cannot produce it artificially and there is no substitute.
We are running out of shit, people!!
According to top ecologists from around the world, from 1970 to 2008 the biological resources of our planet have shrunk by 68%. Humanity is like a cancer cell on steroids … consuming, consuming, consuming everything in sight. One day, there will be nothing left. It’s simple math.
Great numbers of humanity will die off due to lack of resources … and gub’mints with nukes may be very tempted to use them in their last ditch, desperate attempts to stave off the inevitable … for the children, of course.
Welshman: Good going, but I’d recommend some trees too. Fruit and nut trees. Even in the harsh parts of the country there are varieties of apples and hazelnuts/chestnuts that can be grown. Berry bushes and medicinal plants too. Most of our drugs are produced in factories in China and India, and many hospitals are already having shortages of anesthesia and cancer drugs.
@Stucky: did RE take over your keyboard?
A followed by C
I think Stucky’s got it pretty close. The next big shitfest will not be East vs West, but North vs South – as in hemispheres. Water, fuckers. Everybody knows the oil is running out and the vast majority of the military/political theatre of the past few decades has been centered around the oil issue, simply because nobody really wants to talk about water. The southern hemisphere is is pretty good shape as far as acccessible and relatively easy-to-clean fresh water reserves, whereas the northern hemisphere and middle east in particular is jolly well fucked. Tack on the minor issues of wealth disparity and military capabilities between the two and you’re set for a truly galactic level war of genocide.
Human civilizations have come and gone without oil, but they become impossible without access to water. I doubt it will be allowed to go nuclear by fault of any of the major players, though independent agents with tactical nukes could REALLY fuck things up if they were to pop the cork in the Amazon or Nile watershed. Once you contaminate either of the two major southern continent’s watersheds, any pretense of global civilization is OVER. Whether there is an insurrection here as an appertif to the main course is secondary.
Stucky,
Your post at 2:01 is spot-on, most of us here have nothing in common with those fuckwads and being forced to live with them under the stupid rules they come up with is nothing less than slavery.
Doom!
DoOm!!!
DOOM!!!!!
DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!
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7 BILLION WILL DIE!!!!!!!!!!! DOOM!!!!!!!!!!
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Well, yeah. Eventually. I guess I’m looking forward to the collapses and revolutions mostly because everything else on teevee fucking sucks. Can you guys imagine how hilarious it would be to see some FSA thugs spit-roasting Honey Boo Boo over a trash barrel fire? Damn.. That’d almost be worth the ridiculous prices Comcast charges for all their other useless shit shows.
Stucky says ‘Extractable hafnium will disappear for good around 2020 or soon after.’
Odds are we will learn to extract the current unextractable Hafnium (or at least ‘haf’ of it — LOL), and recycle some of the rest.
The human race is amazingly resillient, and its slow lurch toward an armageddon moment could take another few hundred years or more — and we might even dodge the total extinction bullet altogether! (or not…)
How’s that coming from a former mega-doomster?! I just hope that I’m not the last holdout whose partial capitulation signals the end of days!
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A, B, and C
Throw in an antibiotic resistant bacteria or virus that would kill millions.
Don’t forget earthquakes, flooding, and/or drought. God hasn’t made his present felt yet, but he will.
The most likely war will be in Asia. Japan versus China, or N. Korea versus S. Korea and Japan. The U.S. will be drawn in. But I don’t see nukes. All the Chinese have to do is dump their $2 trillion in T-bills and it would nuke our bond market, our stock market, and our economy.
I’m amazed every single day the economy doesn’t implode. I mean think about it, there is $54 trillion in private/public debt. The government owes $17 trillion, which will be $20 trillion by the time Obama leaves office (if he isn’t impeached or tried for treason first, which he should be). The Federal reserve can’t stop QE infinity or else interest payments on that debt would be almost half of tax receipts. Look at Japan, they are borrowing fully half of their budget every year and will double the amount of their currency by 2014. Europe is on the verge of collapse. One or the other, or we will go down in flames.
When the economy collapses, LIBOR freezes (again, like 2008), nobody will be able to get paid or pay each other. Deliveries will stop, no medicines, no food, no gas. The Fed won’t save the U.S. again, how can they? Faith will be gone, bank runs, civil unrest.
There are 18.8 million people diagnosed with diabetes, 7 million undiagnosed, and 79 million “pre diabetics”. There are 80 million people with hypertension. When they don’t get their meds, they will go into diabetic ketoacidosis and die. The people with unmedicated hypertension will die from heart attacks and strokes in a matter of weeks. More than 100 million Americans will die within a month or two. Obesity will finally take it’s toll very quickly, much more quickly than anyone realizes.
And of course, once the free shit stops flowing, there will be riots, looting and murders everywhere. The biggest ticking time bomb in this country is the FSA. It will blow in spectacular fashion. I don’t think there has ever been such a large number of people on welfare/disability/SS or the 30 million government workers in the history of the world. When they are all cut off and have to fend for themselves, they will rip this country apart. They already are, but on a limited basis for now.
The government will be unable to do anything. Only 0.43% of bank deposits are covered by the FDIC. Once stocks crater, the bond market craters, and the bank runs start, it will be the beginning of the end. It could happen any day now. Europe could erupt into war any day; a few bank failures, bail ins, bank runs and the fuse is lit. There are so many people unemployed, especially young people, I’m amazed there hasn’t been more civil unrest already.
It’s all primed to blow. There are so many different ways it could blow, but all it takes is one. One thing is for sure, the debt will eventually bring the whole mess down Fuck the banksters, they’ll be hanging from piano wire, as they should.
For crissakes, all you gotta do is look at what Bernanke and the central bankers are doing. Without trillions printed every year, economies and banks across the world would collapse. The whole financial system of the world is being supported by Central bankers, otherwise it would all collapse. Here’s a hint, IT CAN’T CONTINUE. When the jig is up, the whole economic system of the world will collapse.
The “Price” Of Record High Markets: $10 Trillion In Seven Years
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/02/2013
By now everyone, even CNBC, admits that the only reason stocks are where they are is due to the G-7 central banks. What many may not know, however, is how we got here, and where we will be at the end of this year. The answer, as provided by JPM Asset Management CIO Michael Cembalest in the chart below, is at the dot in the top right. This will represent the addition of $10 trillion in liquidity, or alternatively the conversion of the “planetary nebula” of central bank balance sheet expansion, in the past seven years. And considering that, as we explained yesterday, there is another $10-11 trillion in scarce “quality collateral” that has to be injected into the financial markets via central banks collateral transformations, the number in yet another 7 years will be at $20 trillion if not exponentially higher, or higher than where US GDP will be.
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Luckily, nothing bad happened in 1929.
The difference this time, as is now very obvious, is that in the event the central banks fail at preserving the perpetual growth of what may truly be the final bubble (yes, a preposterous assumption), the central banks are already all in, unlike all previous credit, risk-asset, and housing bubbles. So who becomes the “bad bank” to the central banks when confidence in the “lender of last resort” finally gives way?
I’d like to know what you think. -admin
O. Well. I think the bleatists wont revolt until the Internet, iStupid phones and EBT cards all cease to function at the same time Walmart shutters its stores.
I also think I forgotted to enter my moniker and topsecret gravatar email address above. -Dying Bill
A. And Stucky has it about right at 2:01. All the heathens well really be miserable since they have knothing to look forward to.
I almost wish it would all happen now.Im really tired of whats on the news.All this Boston Bomber crap makes me yearn for the end.Also seeing our government in action and knowing so many actually voted for Obama.
That Gary Johnson? guy was on RT,he almost made sense.
c then a then b. Actually, I’d like more choices – had to make some hasty assumptions.
Catherine Austin Fitts says a “slow burn” and I can see her reasoning – the people have been too dumbed down and pacified. I swear you could confiscate my co-workers 401K’s in their entirety and they would still show up to work the next day bad mouthing Obama but deciding there must have been a real necessity to prevent some even greater catastrophe. And these people are engineers.
But then I think “B” because the BANKS know a good world war can hide all kinds of sins and then when it’s over whats left of the exhausted people are willing to accept any societal and financial rearrangement just to end the madness and return to whatever normal they crave.
B followed by D. We cannot afford a long war anymore and things will conclude fairly quickly. The sides will be US, Russia, most of Europe along with the Shia Muslims. That leaves China and the Sunni Muslims on the other side. It will be a big mess but we will achieve the necessary population reduction.
A, B, C & D combined.
I_S
Zarathustra says:
“G. Jesus returns, taking a good share of america’s morons with him.”
What the hell would Jesus want them for? By now he has got to be a lot like the aliens who hover briefly above and speed off without ever landing. Wifey alien looks out the window and says to hubby alien…try the next planet dear!
I_S
“The sides will be US, Russia, most of Europe along with the Shia Muslims. That leaves China and the Sunni Muslims on the other side.”
Joe,
Why do you think Russia would side with the US against China in a world war? Russia is a big part of BRICS alliance and they have numerous economic ties to the China as well. Russia does not like Eastern or Western Europe either. And I think the feeling is mutual from Europe as well. The only thing the world has in common is that everyone seems to hate Israel (except for the US). Just curious. ????????
BRI will be on the side of the Allies. It is a Sunni Shia thing that will cause the divisions. The US and the Sunni’s do not get along that well because Al Quida is Sunni. You can see Russia supporting the Shia already.
Watch everything closely and you will start to see the alliances. We now live in a G0 world as described by Ian Bremmer so no one is in control or no one wants to be in control. Thus no invasion of North Korea or Syria and a weak interaction with Libya.
F – 4th turning is voodoo.
And Z – zombie apocolypse. Everyone knows that. Science based entirely.
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God hasn’t made his present felt yet, but he will. -AWD
Why would I do that when you, my children, will destroy yourselves? If anything I am going to open the basement door and pull your ears until you stop fighting with one another over stupid shit.