“Here We Go Again”, wasn’t that a Dollie Partin song? John
Administrator
Author
December 13, 2013 1:46 pm
Which one will be wrong?
AWD
December 13, 2013 1:50 pm
“If you don’t see this bubble, you’re probably one of the following:”
bb, the village idiot, making big coin off the insolvent “too big to ever get another bailout” banks.
Thank goodness for the largest amount of margin debt ever seen in the stock market….
I’m sure that’ll end well.
Golden Oxen
December 13, 2013 1:54 pm
None of the above.
Number 13 A Hyperinflationist.
After the correction, and it will be a Doozy, get ready for a lesson in inflation and currency debasement.
You ain’t seen nothing yet.
Of course gains in Real Terms will be another matter entirely.
“Gold Will Win”
tbessi
December 13, 2013 2:13 pm
I see a correction and then off to the races.
Gold’s gonna continue getting hammered as well.
Fed’s kept interest rates too low, Governments are increasing spending.
Its only a matter of time before everyone realizes they are loosing money with treasuries and bonds.
pensions will be forced to go after high yields.
This is a phase transition from public to private. That’s a lot of money in supposedly safe government debt transitioning into private.
Stocks are low, compared to wear they are going.
Private companies are forced to follow the laws.
Eventually it will be obvious even to the admin only a fool holds government debt when they can change the rules.
So admin, where is that money going to go?
private assets which includes stocks and commodities will do well.
Then you’ll really see inflation happen as the government is forced to raise rates to attract capital.
tbessi wants to know where the money is going to go. That’s funny.
Where did it go in 2008/2009?
Where did it go in 2000?
Where did it go in 1929?
Go all in big boy. It’s different this time.
TFC
December 13, 2013 3:35 pm
Our economy and the world economy are nothing more than a enormous Ponzi scheme. The real economy (main street) is completely detached from the Wall Street gambling going on now with extreme risk-taking with Derivatives (mostly credit default swaps) totaling almost 18 times the GDP of the entire world.
No nation can avoid economic collapse if it keeps accumulating massive debt and not growing anywhere near enough good jobs for most citizens to prosper. This plus 5-6 million good jobs outsourced to other countries because of bad trade deals (NAFTA, Transpacific Partnership, KORUS, etc.) plus costly wars, wasteful government spending, fraud, illegal immigration, etc. are all dragging the middle class and our economy down.
The Fed is creating far too much money to prop things up because politicians don’t have the courage to be financially responsible and make crucial reforms (trade, spending, tax, financial, regulatory, etc.) because they are owned and controlled by big money special interests.
This will end badly and hyperinflation (among the other factors already mentioned) will finally pull us down.
tbessi
December 13, 2013 4:03 pm
How much is in treasuries held by the public and foreigners?
That’s a lot of paper to sell, with a guaranteed buyer.
Once the public or foreigners sell what should they purchase?
Hyperinflation is not possible – look it up its never happened to a western country. Especially a reserve currency.
All empires die internally via deflation with government trying to hold on power via taxation or theft.
So if you have a deposit and you know they are going to take it what are you gonna do? Government is hunting money. Is this inflationary or deflationary?
Now where is your money safe in the bank, in government securities, with the government that changes the rules?
Or in the private sector that still has to follow rules.
And purchases the politicians. The politicians that own stock.
tbessi
December 13, 2013 4:27 pm
You mean the Germany that owed a foreign currency to outside countries for war reparations?
The same Germany that openly talked about Russia taking it over? That’s pretty revolutionary IMO.
You really consider that a stable government? Not much better than Zimb……
Which empire hyper-inflated its currency in history? You know empire as in #1 economical power.
Here’s a hint look it up, None….Never happened once in written history.
Until we loose the reserve currency its not even an option.
Your ignorance appears to have no bounds. Now stop foaming at the mouth and take your lithium.
tbessi
December 13, 2013 4:41 pm
Got to go. Admin your a smart guy, but start reading Martin Armstrong regularly.
Gold has not been manipulated, you’ve been suckered and your early to the party.
You’ve been pulled down a rabbit hole to a degree.
Keep ranting on the government your right on mark.
You’ll be right on a small correction, but wrong if you don’t open your eyes to the phase transition.
The majority is always wrong. The majority is sitting out right now.
Thanks for all you do. Enjoy your weekend.
bb
December 13, 2013 10:50 pm
AWD,I am getting out and started this week.This shit is just scary.I will pay a lot in taxes but FSA has got to eat.
dduck
December 13, 2013 11:03 pm
Admin, everything that tbessi has said is pretty much spot on. An investor would have to be brain-dead to invest in government or municipal bonds, and pensions are totally screwed if they remain in bonds. You have to get the DOMESTIC economy blinders off to understand the complete picture. Capital flows globally, always has, always will. Ask yourself this, If you are a big investor (private or institutional) from Japan or Europe where would you park your money? Surely not in a European bank, and offshore tax havens are a thing of the past, as governments hunt down every damn penny.. Japan has been economically dead for several years and with the Fukushima aftermath never going away, they are toast. Europe is not far behind. The Brussels Socialist Bureaucrats are literally destroying the European economy. So again, where do you put your money? Foreigners are putting their money in Wall Street. So when will the true state of America’s economy begin to adversely effect Wall Street? That will happen only after Japan and Europe crash and burn first. Until then, DESPITE the U.S. domestic conditions, the market is going up. There will probably be an interim correction and volitility will high, but it is going up. Everyone who views the market only domestically will be scratching their heads and claiming there is manipulation, a bubble, and all sorts of other BS. Do not make that mistake. Capital flows globally! America will eventually reach it’s economic “D” Day, it is just not time yet.
Administrator
Author
December 14, 2013 5:15 am
dduck
You believers never learn.
The stock market has reached a new permanent high – Irving Fisher – 1928
The internet is a new paradigm -2000
Home prices never fall – Bernanke – 2005
Stocks aren’t overvalued – 2007
The market is going up because there is no place else to make money – dduck – 2013
You people crack me up.
I bet you were flipping houses in 2006.
Administrator
Author
December 14, 2013 1:08 pm
Economic bubbles and crashes have occurred regularly through history-from Holland’s 17th century tulip mania, to America’s 19th century railway mania, to the 1990s high-tech obsession. Though most investors regard themselves as investing rationally, few do. Instead they react collectively, buying high and selling low in crowds. Being subject to the illusion of control, they follow regressive behavior patterns and irrational, wishful thinking. They are victimized by their own emotions of hope, fear, and uncertainty.
When people feel doubt and panic, they regress to an earlier stage either individually or en masse. Under stress, they revert to affect (Mohacsy & Silver, 1980). Such mobbing has an obvious psychological counterpart in the market. Here, crowds are governed by wishful thinking. “Investors are coached to believe that a stock is a better buy when the price rises, that it’s ‘safer’ to join the crowd in betting the price up and ‘riskier’ to buy a stock declining in price” (Vick, 1999, p. 7). Investors also join a crowd to minimize regret. If something goes wrong, they know others behaved the same way.
Administrator
Author
December 14, 2013 1:18 pm
tbessi
Which country had the 3rd highest GDP in the world in 1913?
It wasn’t the British Empire. They were 5th.
What country had centuries of art and literature to its name? What country had instituted a social safety net in the late 1800’s? What country had a more powerful military than the U.S. in 1913?
What country bankrupted itself on wars they started?
What country created their own hyperinflationary nightmare because they could not meet their debt obligations once interest rates soared too high?
The going story people have been trying to feed me is that the price of gold is plummeting because the people of the world have more faith in their respective governments, and that overall inflation must be low.
How the fuck those conclusions have been drawn I have no idea, but there we have it.
Given the strength of a few powerful people in DC/London/NY my guess is that Admin is right: A powerful few are keeping the price of gold low so they can print without causing immediate alarm bells.
dduck
December 14, 2013 2:10 pm
Admin, damn you are stubborn, must be an east coast thing. I did not say that the market was the ONLY place to make money, just where most of the new investors are coming from and like tbessi pointed out there is a shift from bonds to equities. High-end real- estate is going up in various places in the U.S, why? Foreign investors. So you do not think capital flows globally. If so why? Look, we disagree on whether the present market is a bubble or not, however, we both agree the market is going to tank eventually. Our disagreement is the timing. I say it is at least two years out. Europe needs to collapse First….Just like in 1929!
You don’t appear to understand markets. If investors are shifting from bonds to stocks, interest rates should soar. It is called supply and demand. If interest rates even move to 3.5% this whole ponzi scheme collapses in a heap.
High end real estate has gone up because Blackrock and Wall Street have bought up the foreclosures and created a fake supply shortage. Again, a manipulated supply and demand scenario.
The Japs have no money to invest in the U.S. as they spiral downward. The Europeans have no money left to invest.
You are counting on the Chinese, who have a bigger debt and real estate bubble than the U.S. to drive stocks higher?
Face the facts. The ONLY thing making this market stay at these levels is the PERCEPTION that Bennie and his QEternity can save the world and create permanently high stock prices. Perceptions change on a dime when panic sets in.
Good luck timing the collapse. I’m guessing you got out of the market in October 2007. Right?
dduck
December 14, 2013 10:36 pm
Admin
You are correct about the shift from bonds to stocks and the effect on interest rates. Let me correct myself here. The wording “shift from bonds to stocks” is not appropriate. The correct terminology is “transitioning from bonds to stocks”. It is a slow process. Never the less, it is beginning to happen. Your comment on high-end real estate is correct as well. Partially correct. Foreign investors are having an impact as well. Concerning the Japanese and Europeans, I was not referring to the Joe Sixpack crowd, but the effluent. You guessed right. I did get out of the market prior to Oct 2007. A bit too early I might add. I also sold my gold positions in 2012. If one listens to the Gold Bugs with all their manipulation mantra BS, you will lose your ass guaranteed! When it comes to investing, I pay little attention to the so-called fundamentals. In fact, I could care less. There are way too many theories and counter theories to sort out in my spare time. I follow the cycle gurus who know and chart economic history. Not just back a couple hundred years or so. I mean All the way back! All i want to know is what is going to happen and when. That is it. Everything is cyclical in this world, be it astrological, weather, wars, politics, revolutions, economic confidence, and yes markets.
Nic
February 18, 2014 3:16 pm
Should we avoid stock investments due to its instability and look into other investments such as property and rental investments that may be more tangible for a wider amount of people? The notion of economic bubbles and crashes although frequent in history should motivate people to become knowledgeable on the subject and look for alternate forms of investment opportunities.
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“Here We Go Again”, wasn’t that a Dollie Partin song? John
Which one will be wrong?
“If you don’t see this bubble, you’re probably one of the following:”
bb, the village idiot, making big coin off the insolvent “too big to ever get another bailout” banks.
Thank goodness for the largest amount of margin debt ever seen in the stock market….
I’m sure that’ll end well.
None of the above.
Number 13 A Hyperinflationist.
After the correction, and it will be a Doozy, get ready for a lesson in inflation and currency debasement.
You ain’t seen nothing yet.
Of course gains in Real Terms will be another matter entirely.
“Gold Will Win”
I see a correction and then off to the races.
Gold’s gonna continue getting hammered as well.
Fed’s kept interest rates too low, Governments are increasing spending.
Its only a matter of time before everyone realizes they are loosing money with treasuries and bonds.
pensions will be forced to go after high yields.
This is a phase transition from public to private. That’s a lot of money in supposedly safe government debt transitioning into private.
Stocks are low, compared to wear they are going.
Private companies are forced to follow the laws.
Eventually it will be obvious even to the admin only a fool holds government debt when they can change the rules.
So admin, where is that money going to go?
private assets which includes stocks and commodities will do well.
Then you’ll really see inflation happen as the government is forced to raise rates to attract capital.
tbessi wants to know where the money is going to go. That’s funny.
Where did it go in 2008/2009?
Where did it go in 2000?
Where did it go in 1929?
Go all in big boy. It’s different this time.
Our economy and the world economy are nothing more than a enormous Ponzi scheme. The real economy (main street) is completely detached from the Wall Street gambling going on now with extreme risk-taking with Derivatives (mostly credit default swaps) totaling almost 18 times the GDP of the entire world.
No nation can avoid economic collapse if it keeps accumulating massive debt and not growing anywhere near enough good jobs for most citizens to prosper. This plus 5-6 million good jobs outsourced to other countries because of bad trade deals (NAFTA, Transpacific Partnership, KORUS, etc.) plus costly wars, wasteful government spending, fraud, illegal immigration, etc. are all dragging the middle class and our economy down.
The Fed is creating far too much money to prop things up because politicians don’t have the courage to be financially responsible and make crucial reforms (trade, spending, tax, financial, regulatory, etc.) because they are owned and controlled by big money special interests.
This will end badly and hyperinflation (among the other factors already mentioned) will finally pull us down.
How much is in treasuries held by the public and foreigners?
That’s a lot of paper to sell, with a guaranteed buyer.
Once the public or foreigners sell what should they purchase?
Hyperinflation is not possible – look it up its never happened to a western country. Especially a reserve currency.
All empires die internally via deflation with government trying to hold on power via taxation or theft.
How about this:
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/10/11/international-monetary-fund-strongly-suggests-countries-tax-the-rich-to-fix-deficit/
So if you have a deposit and you know they are going to take it what are you gonna do? Government is hunting money. Is this inflationary or deflationary?
Now where is your money safe in the bank, in government securities, with the government that changes the rules?
Or in the private sector that still has to follow rules.
And purchases the politicians. The politicians that own stock.
You mean the Germany that owed a foreign currency to outside countries for war reparations?
The same Germany that openly talked about Russia taking it over? That’s pretty revolutionary IMO.
You really consider that a stable government? Not much better than Zimb……
Which empire hyper-inflated its currency in history? You know empire as in #1 economical power.
Here’s a hint look it up, None….Never happened once in written history.
Until we loose the reserve currency its not even an option.
tbessi
Your ignorance appears to have no bounds. Now stop foaming at the mouth and take your lithium.
Got to go. Admin your a smart guy, but start reading Martin Armstrong regularly.
Gold has not been manipulated, you’ve been suckered and your early to the party.
You’ve been pulled down a rabbit hole to a degree.
Keep ranting on the government your right on mark.
You’ll be right on a small correction, but wrong if you don’t open your eyes to the phase transition.
The majority is always wrong. The majority is sitting out right now.
Thanks for all you do. Enjoy your weekend.
AWD,I am getting out and started this week.This shit is just scary.I will pay a lot in taxes but FSA has got to eat.
Admin, everything that tbessi has said is pretty much spot on. An investor would have to be brain-dead to invest in government or municipal bonds, and pensions are totally screwed if they remain in bonds. You have to get the DOMESTIC economy blinders off to understand the complete picture. Capital flows globally, always has, always will. Ask yourself this, If you are a big investor (private or institutional) from Japan or Europe where would you park your money? Surely not in a European bank, and offshore tax havens are a thing of the past, as governments hunt down every damn penny.. Japan has been economically dead for several years and with the Fukushima aftermath never going away, they are toast. Europe is not far behind. The Brussels Socialist Bureaucrats are literally destroying the European economy. So again, where do you put your money? Foreigners are putting their money in Wall Street. So when will the true state of America’s economy begin to adversely effect Wall Street? That will happen only after Japan and Europe crash and burn first. Until then, DESPITE the U.S. domestic conditions, the market is going up. There will probably be an interim correction and volitility will high, but it is going up. Everyone who views the market only domestically will be scratching their heads and claiming there is manipulation, a bubble, and all sorts of other BS. Do not make that mistake. Capital flows globally! America will eventually reach it’s economic “D” Day, it is just not time yet.
dduck
You believers never learn.
The stock market has reached a new permanent high – Irving Fisher – 1928
The internet is a new paradigm -2000
Home prices never fall – Bernanke – 2005
Stocks aren’t overvalued – 2007
The market is going up because there is no place else to make money – dduck – 2013
You people crack me up.
I bet you were flipping houses in 2006.
Economic bubbles and crashes have occurred regularly through history-from Holland’s 17th century tulip mania, to America’s 19th century railway mania, to the 1990s high-tech obsession. Though most investors regard themselves as investing rationally, few do. Instead they react collectively, buying high and selling low in crowds. Being subject to the illusion of control, they follow regressive behavior patterns and irrational, wishful thinking. They are victimized by their own emotions of hope, fear, and uncertainty.
When people feel doubt and panic, they regress to an earlier stage either individually or en masse. Under stress, they revert to affect (Mohacsy & Silver, 1980). Such mobbing has an obvious psychological counterpart in the market. Here, crowds are governed by wishful thinking. “Investors are coached to believe that a stock is a better buy when the price rises, that it’s ‘safer’ to join the crowd in betting the price up and ‘riskier’ to buy a stock declining in price” (Vick, 1999, p. 7). Investors also join a crowd to minimize regret. If something goes wrong, they know others behaved the same way.
tbessi
Which country had the 3rd highest GDP in the world in 1913?
It wasn’t the British Empire. They were 5th.
What country had centuries of art and literature to its name? What country had instituted a social safety net in the late 1800’s? What country had a more powerful military than the U.S. in 1913?
What country bankrupted itself on wars they started?
What country created their own hyperinflationary nightmare because they could not meet their debt obligations once interest rates soared too high?
I know you can figure it out.
I’ll provide you a link to see for yourself.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_by_past_GDP_(PPP)
The going story people have been trying to feed me is that the price of gold is plummeting because the people of the world have more faith in their respective governments, and that overall inflation must be low.
How the fuck those conclusions have been drawn I have no idea, but there we have it.
Given the strength of a few powerful people in DC/London/NY my guess is that Admin is right: A powerful few are keeping the price of gold low so they can print without causing immediate alarm bells.
Admin, damn you are stubborn, must be an east coast thing. I did not say that the market was the ONLY place to make money, just where most of the new investors are coming from and like tbessi pointed out there is a shift from bonds to equities. High-end real- estate is going up in various places in the U.S, why? Foreign investors. So you do not think capital flows globally. If so why? Look, we disagree on whether the present market is a bubble or not, however, we both agree the market is going to tank eventually. Our disagreement is the timing. I say it is at least two years out. Europe needs to collapse First….Just like in 1929!
dduck
You don’t appear to understand markets. If investors are shifting from bonds to stocks, interest rates should soar. It is called supply and demand. If interest rates even move to 3.5% this whole ponzi scheme collapses in a heap.
High end real estate has gone up because Blackrock and Wall Street have bought up the foreclosures and created a fake supply shortage. Again, a manipulated supply and demand scenario.
The Japs have no money to invest in the U.S. as they spiral downward. The Europeans have no money left to invest.
You are counting on the Chinese, who have a bigger debt and real estate bubble than the U.S. to drive stocks higher?
Face the facts. The ONLY thing making this market stay at these levels is the PERCEPTION that Bennie and his QEternity can save the world and create permanently high stock prices. Perceptions change on a dime when panic sets in.
Good luck timing the collapse. I’m guessing you got out of the market in October 2007. Right?
Admin
You are correct about the shift from bonds to stocks and the effect on interest rates. Let me correct myself here. The wording “shift from bonds to stocks” is not appropriate. The correct terminology is “transitioning from bonds to stocks”. It is a slow process. Never the less, it is beginning to happen. Your comment on high-end real estate is correct as well. Partially correct. Foreign investors are having an impact as well. Concerning the Japanese and Europeans, I was not referring to the Joe Sixpack crowd, but the effluent. You guessed right. I did get out of the market prior to Oct 2007. A bit too early I might add. I also sold my gold positions in 2012. If one listens to the Gold Bugs with all their manipulation mantra BS, you will lose your ass guaranteed! When it comes to investing, I pay little attention to the so-called fundamentals. In fact, I could care less. There are way too many theories and counter theories to sort out in my spare time. I follow the cycle gurus who know and chart economic history. Not just back a couple hundred years or so. I mean All the way back! All i want to know is what is going to happen and when. That is it. Everything is cyclical in this world, be it astrological, weather, wars, politics, revolutions, economic confidence, and yes markets.
Should we avoid stock investments due to its instability and look into other investments such as property and rental investments that may be more tangible for a wider amount of people? The notion of economic bubbles and crashes although frequent in history should motivate people to become knowledgeable on the subject and look for alternate forms of investment opportunities.