WTF DID YOU THINK WOULD HAPPEN?

I wonder who could have predicted this. Oh Yeah. Me. I wrote Subprime Auto Nation in September 2012. The entire auto recovery storyline peddled to the masses over the last few years is a sham. It’s just another Federal Reserve easy money created subprime bubble. Ally Financial and the rest of the Wall Street criminal syndicate have doled out subprime auto loans to any high school dropout that can fog a mirror, quicker than Bill Clinton does interns. The entire scheme was to give the appearance of an economic recovery and not worry about the future losses. The taxpayer would pick those up. The falsity of the fantastic auto sales meme is proven by the fact that automaker profits have fallen and their stocks are lower than they were in 2010.

Now the chickens are coming home to roost. 1 out of 12 subprime borrowers have failed to make payments within the first nine months of taking the loan. I wonder how many will make all the payments over the 7 years of their loan?

WTF did highly educated finance professionals think would happen when you loaned Shaquesha Jackson, with a 630 credit score, $40,000 to buy a Cadillac Escalade? Did they think she would make the payments with her EBT card? Did the fact she had defaulted on prior loans convince them she had learned her lesson? There are $40,000 vehicles all over West Philly, parked in front of $25,000 hovels. Who in their right mind thought lending money to these people for a rapidly depreciating vehicle was a good idea? Only an Ivy League educated Princeton economist could think this would work. Or maybe they just wanted to keep the ponzi going long enough to exit the Federal Reserve and start making $300,000 per lunchtime speech about how he saved the world.  

The delinquency rates on all car loans at 2.6% are already approaching 2008 levels. I might want to remind you the government and MSM have been telling you we are in the midst of a strong economic recovery. As 2015 erodes into a greater depression, these default rates will soar well past 2008-2009 levels. The coming shitstorm created by the easy money mal-investment over the last five years is going to be epic.

 

Even Mark Zandi Admits It: Auto Loan “Credit Quality Is Eroding Now, And Pretty Quickly”

Tyler Durden's picture

Just 2 days after President Obama reflected on his glorious ‘save’ of the US auto industryforgetting to explain how so much of this ‘buying frenzy’ has been predicated on massive low-quality-borrower-based credit extensionsThe Wall Street Journal bursts the bubble of ‘contained-ness’. Auto loan delinquency rates are surging to levels not seen since 2008 and stunningly, more than 8.4% of borrowers with weak credit scores who took out loans in the first quarter of 2014 had missed payments by November. As even glass-half-full-status-quo-hugger Mark Zandi is forced to admit, “It’s clear that credit quality is eroding now, and pretty quickly.”

 

 

As The Wall Street Journal reports,

Borrowers who took out auto loans over the past year are missing payments at the highest level since the recession, fueling concerns among regulators, analysts and some in the car industry that practices that helped boost 2014 light-vehicle sales to a near-decade high could backfire.

 

“It’s clear that credit quality is eroding now, and pretty quickly,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

 

More than 2.6% of car-loan borrowers who took out loans in the first quarter of last year had missed at least one monthly payment by November, the highest level of early loan trouble since 2008, when such delinquencies rose above 3%, according to an analysis of data performed for The Wall Street Journal by Moody’s Analytics.

 

The uptick comes amid an increase in subprime auto loans, raising concerns that car buyers may have taken on more debt than they can handle. For that set of borrowers, defined as consumers with a credit score lower than 620, loan performance also is deteriorating.

 

More than 8.4% of borrowers with weak credit scores who took out loans in the first quarter of 2014 had missed payments by November, according to the Moody’s analysis of Equifax credit-reporting data. That was the highest level since 2008, when early delinquencies for subprime borrowers rose above 9%.

 

 

Of the 15 biggest U.S. auto-lending banks, Santander had the largest percentage of delinquent auto loans in the third quarter, according to SNL Financial. Santander’s delinquency rate of 16.7% was followed by Capital One at 6.6%, according to SNL.

 

Of particular concern are loans in which car dealers push financing at extended terms of six and seven years at relatively high interest rates, even if the borrowers have weak credit and escalated debt-to-income ratios. The longer loan terms keep monthly payments under control and get buyers to purchase more expensive cars.

This does not bode well for this year…

Low-interest rates and wider credit availability have helped propel the U.S. auto industry’s comeback from the recession, driving new-car sales to 16.5 million last year, the highest level since 2006, according to market researcher Autodata Corp.

 

To keep the momentum going in 2015, industry analysts said car companies and lenders will likely have to push more aggressive finance deals and tap borrowers with weaker credit. Riskier lending tactics already are drawing regulatory scrutiny.

 

Kevin Duignan, global head of securitization for Fitch Ratings, said some bigger lenders are starting to pull back and be more conservative on subprime auto lending. The credit-rating firm is concerned that small and midsize lenders won’t follow suit and dive too deeply into subprime lending.

 

“Subprime delinquencies and losses are beginning to grow at a more rapid pace than we’ve seen in a long time,” he said.

But we leave it up to Honda’s head of sales to sum it all up…

“The industry is starting to do some stupid things,” said John Mendel.

*  *  *

Who could have seen this coming?!!

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40 Comments
yahsure
yahsure
January 9, 2015 1:56 pm

The news this am talked about Macy’s stores closing. They were talking about the one at metrocenter mall in Phoenix. That mall was once one of the largest in the U.S. when it was first built.
They also talked about JC pennys closing stores.
But everything is going so well!

Dutchman
Dutchman
January 9, 2015 2:44 pm

Dem neegrows be liken da Chrysler 300 wid dose 21’s

Steve Hogan
Steve Hogan
January 9, 2015 3:50 pm

That photo can’t be unseen.

SSS
SSS
January 9, 2015 5:17 pm

“That photo (which Admin posted @ 2:58 pm) can’t be unseen.”
—-Steve Hogan

Right you are, Steve. But I’m gonna try. Right after viewing that pic, I made an appointment with a hypnotist to see if I can’t get it erased from my mind. Guess who I’m sending the bill to?

Overthecliff
Overthecliff
January 9, 2015 5:36 pm

Damn,Admin!

Tommy
Tommy
January 9, 2015 6:08 pm

right there with you SSS, except I’m going to see a therapist who deals in experimental techniques. Conventional therapy will never work, I gotta unring the bell.

spinolator
spinolator
January 9, 2015 7:42 pm

Hi every one! Where is a good place to buy gold coins? Good price? Thanks!

Kill Bill
Kill Bill
January 9, 2015 7:57 pm

Brain Bleach Aisle 13, STAT!!

SSS
SSS
January 9, 2015 8:06 pm

Next up, the housing market with its softening requirements to get a mortgage loan. And round and round we go.

SSS
SSS
January 9, 2015 8:18 pm

“Hi every one! Where is a good place to buy gold coins? Good price? Thanks!”
—-spinolator

A local, honest coin dealer who charges spot-plus at a rate that matches or is less than some of the big-name bullion dealers. Take cash and get a 3% discount from a credit card sale. Walk out with your purchase in your hands.

American gold coins are slightly above foreign gold. Buy American.

spinolator
spinolator
January 9, 2015 9:23 pm

Thanks SSS!

EC
EC
January 9, 2015 10:10 pm

I hope Billy doesn’t see Shaniqua’s very public tit, is that a nipple – I can’t tell, he’ll come unglued.

SSS
SSS
January 9, 2015 10:14 pm

Who’s the jerk who gave me a thumbs-down on my advice to spinolator on where to buy gold coins? Was it this statement ……..

“American gold coins are slightly above foreign gold. Buy American. ”

Gold is gold in bullion coins. And the foreign gold is just as good as American gold in terms of quality and pureness. The very slight difference in price is twofold – 1) demand, here and abroad and 2) national marketability. If you handed a 1 oz gold coin worth $1,300 in trade for something to an American merchant, which coin do you think he’d rather take? A Chinese Panda, a Canadian Maple Leaf, or an American Double Eagle?

Oh, American gold coins remain the most beautiful of any minted anywhere in the world. Thus endeth today’s lesson for the thumbs-down idiot.

EC
EC
January 9, 2015 10:31 pm

SSS’ advice is financially sound and not based on a personal campaign to sell American goods. Anybody with half a brain knows that American coins are easily traded due to their purity and proven gold content. There are coins that have a higher gold content but they’ll be hard to trade in an emergency.

Anonymous
Anonymous
January 9, 2015 10:39 pm

Spinolator-SSS- I believe there are additional benefits to hold pre ’33 US coins(silver and gold). If there is a bullion reboot, its postulated by some that serfs will get to keep pre 33 as they are classified as collectible private property, like stamps, not bullion. Who knows?
Additionally, collection value tends to hold at higher values in a descending spot market. Dollar for Dollar the Morgans I bought at the same price as Eagles have not fallen as much in current prices.
Look on ebay for a truly accurate representation of current market prices, auction only is best as these coins are sold, right now.

SSS
SSS
January 9, 2015 11:51 pm

@ Anonymous, et al

Well, here we are. In a thread talking about gold and silver based on an article about sub-prime auto loans. I’m sure this is exactly how Admin planned it.

I have to smile when I imagine his reaction, holding his head in his hands, to some of these threads that fly completely off the reservation of the topic at hand, which might be ……………

“Dear God, please deliver me from the agony of dealing with these shit-throwing monkeys day after day.” To date, God has not answered Admin’s prayer. Thank God.

ottomatik
ottomatik
January 9, 2015 11:57 pm

SSS- I dont know, purchase of hard assets seems totaly logical after reading the article. Paper burns, and the article points to a source of ignition.

SSS
SSS
January 10, 2015 12:30 am

ottomatik

Purchase of hard assets such as gold and silver, however large or small according to your budget, makes perfect sense in ANY economy. Gold and silver have never been worthless. Never. Do the math. No wait. Math is not involved. “Never been worthless” is.

Llpoh
Llpoh
January 10, 2015 1:08 am

Farmland > gold.

Mike Moskos
Mike Moskos
January 10, 2015 2:56 am

The thing is most of these loan recipients shouldn’t be driving at all.

If you’re poor you cannot afford a car.
If you’re working class, holding on to that car is what’s making you fall further behind every year.

It will take time, but they must figure out how to get into a neighborhood where they don’t need a car (or a bus), being able to walk to work, stores, etc.

archie
archie
January 10, 2015 11:19 am

Spinolator, I beg you to reconsider the rather paltry and questionable advice SSS offered. Yes SSS, I downvoted your ass. Here’s why:

You say, “A local, honest coin dealer who charges spot-plus at a rate that matches or is less than some of the big-name bullion dealers. Take cash and get a 3% discount from a credit card sale. Walk out with your purchase in your hands.”

By implication, you are rightly pointing out that there are sleazy and dishonest coin dealers. Why put a newbie through the business of trying to sort out who is honest and who is not. Chances are, unless you know what you’re talking about, the dealer will take advantage of the situation. The local dealer on the street lives on a small margin, made even smaller given the plunge in prices the last couple years. I submit many of the small dealers will close shop if the prices stay where they are. Even if you find a honest dealer, chances are his inventory is tiny compared to large online outfits. Lastly, should you need to sell your coins there is no way you will get anything close to spot. Whereas APMEX, the large Oklahoma bullion online shop will give you spot without hesitation. There is only one reason why on balance one should use a local shop: if you pay cash, under a certain amount (I think $10k) you leave no paper trail, in the exceedingly unlikely event that the guberment wants to confiscate gold.

Spinolator, check out APMEX. Their prices are reasonable, their service is pretty much unbeatable and they have a massive inventory.

SSS says,”American gold coins are slightly above foreign gold. Buy American.”
Aside from being vague, there is absolutely no reason to favor American gold. Then later you laughably suggest that he buy “Double Eagles”. This makes no sense at all. First, a newbie has no reason to buy a double eagle which may or may not have any numismatic value. Second, you are not even getting one ounce of gold, you get .9675 troy ounce of gold in a coin alloyed with copper. A canadian maple leaf is a .9999 (24 karat) pure gold coin. Indisputably, the dealer would want the canadian coin over the double eagle. By definition, it is a much more liquid coin. If you do buy numismatic coins, buy the “Red Book” so you know what the heck you’re getting into.

SSS says, “Gold is gold in bullion coins. And the foreign gold is just as good as American gold in terms of quality and pureness. The very slight difference in price is twofold – 1) demand, here and abroad and 2) national marketability. If you handed a 1 oz gold coin worth $1,300 in trade for something to an American merchant, which coin do you think he’d rather take? A Chinese Panda, a Canadian Maple Leaf, or an American Double Eagle?”

This is a lot of confusion mixed with hot air. It would take me a couple more paragraphs to sort it out, so let me give to Spinolator my recommendation, which may also serve as a rebuttal to the above.

First, stick to bullion coins from national mints. If you want to go American, you have two choices: the American Buffalo, which has LLPOH’s visage on one side, and a buffalo on the other. More importantly, it is pure gold with no alloy and is a striking coin. The other is the bullion coin, Gold Eagle, which is .9167 (11/12ths) gold, alloyed with silver and copper. You still get one troy ounce of gold though. It is not as striking as the Buffalo, but it has two advantages. One, since it is alloyed, it is more durable, less prone to scratching. Two, it is likely more liquid, not only here but worldwide.

There are a couple other options from foreign countries: the South African Krugerrand, perhaps the most liquid gold coin in the world, so that if you find yourself in a Lebanese work camp, the guard will likely know exactly what he is getting in return for letting you slip past the gate. It is, like the American Eagle, a coin alloyed with copper, but you still get one troy ounce of gold. It is also likely that you’ll find that the premium on the coin here is lower than those on other coins. Also, the Canadian Maple Leaf mentioned above is a perfectly fine option. It is pure gold and scratches easily so you may want to leave its protective case intact while storing it. You may also want to know that these coins come in smaller sizes, so called fractional gold. 1/2 ounce, 1/4 ounce for example. You will pay a higher premium the smaller the piece. Additionally, If you fancy bars, PAMP SUISSE and Valcambi make very attractive and universally popular bars. The latter makes 50 and 20 gram bars divisible into 1 gram pieces. I could go on but I’ll stop here.

SSS I wish you a very fine day out on the golf course. Despite your rubbish advice, I still think of you as much more Dewey Clarridge than Jack Falcon. Good day sir.

Maggie
Maggie
January 10, 2015 12:56 pm

I was behind a very large young woman in the express line at the grocery store the other day. Since I needed only some flour to make dumplings for home-made chicken and dumplings and a package of celery for the same meal, I expected to be able to get out of the store in less than five minutes. I grabbed a package of gum (are you kidding me… a dollar for a package of chewing gum?)

After a few minutes, I turned my attention from the always intriguing tales of weight loss miracles and divorce rumors on the magazine rack to see why I hadn’t moved along as quickly as I’d expected.

The woman in front of me was facing a crisis of enormous proportions, which seemed appropriate considering her butt blocked out any view of the end of the candy counter behind her. It seemed that her WIC vouchers would only cover $25 that day? week? How often do these people get Women Infant and Children vouchers? And the two blocks of cheese cost more than $15, leaving her less than ten dollars to purchase the bags of lettuce already cut up and assorted vegetables, a dozen bananas and a few loaves of french bread. Her total was at $27.01. The cashier was trying to negotiate with her, explaining that the cherry tomatoes cost $3.49, while she could probably get a large tomato for less than half that and if she would put a cucumber back, could cut the cost to the required $25 or less.

The woman angrily told the cashier that she NEEDED the cherry tomatoes and both cucumbers for a good salad in a tone that conveyed her resentment at the cashier even suggesting she do without them. I almost offered to help pay, and when I say ALMOST I mean that I actually opened my purse to see if any stray dollar bills were visible, but the cashier looked up and caught my eye with a meaningful and barely perceptible shake of her head which told me that this beast of a young woman’s predicament was not a first time event. I desperately glanced around at the other Country Mart registers and discovered that there were three or four normal people in each line, happily placing their items on the conveyor belt and preparing to pay for those items with debit, credit or ebt card, while I was stuck behind a very fat, unreasonable woman who was apparently planning on feeding a newborn child or toddler a big hunk of cheese and salad with her WIC vouchers. The cashier began removing bananas from the scale, trying to whittle down the cost of her purchase.

To make matters even more confusing, in the sweaty hand that was NOT clutching the WIC vouchers, she had several one dollar bills visible in her grasp. Again, I glanced around and saw that one register was down to one person with a cart waiting, so I picked up my three items and escaped.

When I was paying for my purchase, I glanced at the “express” lane to see if the cashier had somehow managed to get the woman’s crisis resolved and saw that the “customer” was picking up her bags to leave,. Or so I thought. On my way out, I saw that she’d stopped at the cigarette counter to buy a pack… an after salad smoke is always calming. I quit smoking 8 years ago and have NEVER been an anti-smoking zealot, but the realization that those dollar bills clutched in her hand were never intended to help pay for any of the food items really put icing on the WIC cake.

As I was pulling out of the lot, I saw the woman waddle out pushing a cart with her three little bags of cheese, vegetables and bread in it, light a cigarette on her way to an almost brand new Ford F150 pickup… no, it wasn’t a 4 x 4, but it was certainly a lot more expensive than my 2009 Hyundai Tucson was when we got it brand new. But, silly me… we paid cash for that too just like I paid cash for my groceries. Idiots… we are idiots.

I doubt that her salad tasted half as good as my pot of chicken and dumplings… made the old fashioned way.

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Maggie
Maggie
January 10, 2015 12:58 pm

That is one BIG pot of dumplins… A very excellent batch, made with some of the roosters my neighbor wanted to rid his flock of… I can them and he gets one third of the meat, canned. I get the jars back.

Life is good outside grocery stores.

EC
EC
January 10, 2015 3:14 pm

What? Maggie is on the anti-EBT wagon already? I so hate this place, the way normally nice folks turn into rabid Randians is appalling.

SSS
SSS
January 10, 2015 7:11 pm

@ archie

Thanks for your extensive analysis of my advice on buying gold to spinolator. You make valid points for which I have no rebuttal.

I ASSUMED spinolator would do some research on where he could buy gold or silver from a reputable dealer. That assumption may or may not be correct, as you pointed out. I am a prudent buyer. I have a tendency to transmit my habits to others with whom I have discourse.

Your criticism of my recommendation to “buy American” is puzzling. I don’t give a shit about how “pure” or “fine” a gold coin is. If it has 1 troy ounce of gold in it, case closed. American Buffaloes and American Eagles have 1 troy ounce of gold. They are beautiful and globally marketable. I repeat. Case closed.

Because of the huge premium on fractional gold (1/10th, 1/4 quarter, and 1/2 half ounce), I buy silver. That’s my preference. You may disagree, but instead of paying a ridiculous premium for fractional gold, I would like you to inform me why I can’t substitute silver for gold if push comes to shove on a currency crisis.

Archie
Archie
January 10, 2015 8:01 pm

SSS, you never mentioned the American Eagle or the Buffalo, did you? You recommended the double eagle, a numismatic coin. That’s where I found fault in your analysis.

As far as silver goes, it is my view that, since silver is an industrial metal, it will decline in price, much like Brent crude is now. Central banks hold gold, not silver, for good reason. Gold is a monetary metal, silver is not. When fiat money fails, gold will be revalued to re-liquidfy the system. Silver, not so much.

ottomatik
ottomatik
January 10, 2015 9:14 pm

Archie-SSS-Spinolator- I buy Almost all my coins of every flavor from a very small local dealer. The prices I pay are in line with APMEX, and EBAY. I get to visually inspect the product, and talk with him about the market, and support a local small company.
If I buy larger amounts he will make a better deal than APMEX. Who I also use for the hard to find, they have a killer selection, fair and prompt.
Spinolator- Stay clear of the TV is a strong move, and Admin posted a great info graphic deciphering the tax status and reporting requirements of gold and silver not long ago, and shop.

A question for All: If we buy gold and silver for a cushion against monetary inflation, and the Fed massively inflates the money supply(M2-M6?), what is the justification for taxing all the gain(ha ha) at Capitol Gains rates( 15-30% depending on amount?) of the gold and silver?
So either way, your money in the bank is indirectly taxed via inflation, or your saved money(bullion) is directly taxed via cap gain at sale, no savings possible, unless pushed like muppets to the Exchanges or Bonds you make gains that will pay both the inflation basis and cap gains tax.
Savings is dead for most, gold and silver wont do it, even if they keep up with inflation(unlikely these days) at sale you will have to settle for back of spot and pay cap gains!
Middle America is largely fucked with the deck stacked against them in every way.
One clearly must aquire income producing assets o

ottomatik
ottomatik
January 10, 2015 9:29 pm

Sorry-
One must clearly acquire income producing assets or fall behind, this seems the ONLY way to save.
All of these asset classes have risk that must be calculated into the gain, to account for portfolio losses.
To craft a system denying the population risk free savings is a travesty, coupled with the debt binging highlighted above a guaranteed trip to the 3rd World with no middle.
Buckle up.

Archie
Archie
January 10, 2015 9:39 pm

Ottomatik, no one knows the future. The most we can do is anticipate and prepare. Say the guberment raids your house and asks where the bullion is. Tell them you sold it or lost it. If they tax it, don’t sell it. Trade it. The truth is very few people own gold. There is little reason for them to go after it in private hands. If anything, the unallocated large accounts of the big banks will be confiscated, and they will take over the mines. Don’t own the shares of these companies.

Kill Bill
Kill Bill
January 10, 2015 9:57 pm

Lemme see subprime auto loans, AU, Silver, Chicken Dumplins and Feces Flinging Inebriated Simians

Gawd, I Lurb This Place!!

ottomatik
ottomatik
January 10, 2015 10:25 pm

Archie, I agree, I am a fan of gold and silver because there is no counter party.

It just is…

I on the other hand posses a SSN so I have an onboard counter party.

SSS
SSS
January 10, 2015 10:56 pm

“SSS, you never mentioned the American Eagle or the Buffalo, did you? You recommended the double eagle, a numismatic coin. That’s where I found fault in your analysis.”
—-Archie

Correct. Good catch. I said double eagle when I meant eagle. My error. Regardless, I meant a bullion coin. And I agree that silver is largely an industrial metal.

I acquire both metals for TRADE in the event of a currency collapse. Period. Neither metal has ever been worthless. Ever. Both will always have market value. Picture whatever economy you want, gold and silver will be a player.

My heirs may look at these holdings and ask, “What the hell was he thinking?” Maybe I should include a note to that effect.

ottomatik
ottomatik
January 10, 2015 11:08 pm

I personally prefer the double eagle and have seen them go for small premiums, if bought right they have both numismatic and collection value.

Maggie
Maggie
January 11, 2015 3:23 pm

My husband and I bought Maple Leafs and Buffalo rounds and some ten ounce bars many years ago and tucked them away in a boat that was lost in the local lake. We also bought into a junk silver purchase with a group of friends and sat drinking beer and rolling quarters, dimes and half dollars one Saturday night. Ended up with ten rolls of quarters and 6 rolls of dimes. I had about 20 half dollars, but over the years have given them to nieces, nephews and friends as gifts.

My father in law “gifted” us with two 100 ounce silver bars, but they were annoyingly heavy, so we sold them (luckily, just before the big slide).

I like the junk silver best, I think. The fact that it is recognizable as being 90% pure to just about anyone is comforting. The other bullion? Is nice to have it at the bottom of the lake, but isn’t an investment. Is insurance.

spinolator
spinolator
January 12, 2015 3:18 am

SSS, Archie, Admin, Otto, anon

Thanks for your advice! All very helpful.