Evaluating the Political Chess Board

Guest Post by Scott Adams

Trump has pulled ahead of Clinton nationally in both the new FOX poll and the Rasmussen Poll. And Trump passed Clinton in favorability according to the newest national poll on that topic. The Megyn Kelly interview (including the hyping of it ahead of time) marked Trump’s third-act turn.

By the way, Anderson Cooper of CNN said last night that CNN finds the FOX polling to be reliable and transparent, in case you wondered.

Meanwhile, Clinton is losing one primary after another to a dehydrated dandelion in her own party. That doesn’t bode well for the coming cage fight with Godzilla.

And Godzilla hasn’t even started to punch hard. He’s still looking at the opposition research and humming. So that’s coming.

Clinton is planning to appear on Ellen with the all-female cast of the new Ghostbusters movie. That’s what overplaying the woman card looks like. One wag on Twitter put it this way:

The New York Times did its best to make Trump look like a sexist, but they only succeeded in destroyed their own credibility when their star witness outed them for making up stuff.

Clinton surrogate Ed Rendel said something that was probably harmless in person, and in the proper context, but taken out of context by outragists it sounded like he was saying Clinton supporters are mostly ugly women. That didn’t help.

Clinton’s team continues to churn out anti-Trump hit pieces that ask you to imagine President Trump in office. By November, voters will think Trump has been running the country for a year and it looked a lot like the Obama administration. That’s called “graduated exposure” and it’s a well-understood psychological phenomenon. The Democrats are working overtime to make Trump feel less scary while believing they are doing the opposite.

Now imagine Clinton and Trump selecting VPs. If Clinton picks a woman, she overplays the woman card to destruction. If she selects a beta male, it will seem cringeworthy to the sexist public. If she selects an alpha male it will annoy her base without gaining a single vote. Clinton loses on every path.

Meanwhile, Trump can pick a man or a woman and it will look natural. No VP will overshadow Trump’s energy. All he needs is a running mate that is competent and a little bit interesting.

Trump announced his list of potential Supreme Court Justices. Republicans seemed to like the list, which makes Trump seem more mainstream even if you don’t like the names on the list.

A jet on the way from France to Egypt has disappeared, and terrorism is the assumed reason. That plays to Trump’s strength, as does every act of terror everywhere.

Trump has gone a few weeks without creating any new provocations on the scale of his 2015 self. The longer he proves he can moderate his behavior to fit the situation – as he did in the Megyn Kelly interview – the more people trust that he isn’t crazy.

Trump’s insults are now understood to be more than random hate. They are weapons-grade persuasion that have been engineered and then A-B tested at rallies. The “Crooked Hillary” harpoon is already doing its damage. If history is our guide, the nickname will bleed her out before November.

Paul Manafort, Trump’s campaign manager, knows how to win. The Clinton campaign doesn’t show the same level of talent, at least in terms of persuasion. Clinton’s logo (the big H) looks like a hospital sign. And their “Love Trumps Hate” slogan is two-thirds “Love Trump.” Any trained persuader knows people put more cognitive weight on the first part of sentences.

I’m teeming with confirmation bias, but from my kitchen counter, I don’t see how it can go any direction but a Trump landslide from here.

I’ll remind readers that I have disavowed all of the candidates. My political views don’t line up with any of them. My interest is in Trump’s persuasion skills.

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15 Comments
Tim
Tim
May 19, 2016 12:37 pm

From reading Scott Adams’ “Trump the Persuader” series, I’ve gained all new insight into how Trump is running his campaign. Adams provides really keen analysis. That’s why I think people like Kuntsler and others who call Trump “crazy” are missing the mark. If you’ll take the time to read his persuader series, you’ll see that Trump is Crazy Like A Fox.

As Adams mentions at the end, I’m not a Trump supporter either, but I am Anti-Hillary. I’m looking forward to a Trump/Clinton showdown. I’d really like to see Hillary exposed for what she is, and I don’t think Trump will play by the same playbook that long-term, long-standing politicians play. I think he’ll wipe the floor with her. Maybe she’ll have a nervous breakdown and flip out on national TV.

Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward
May 19, 2016 1:14 pm

Hillary is Preparation H.

Rise Up
Rise Up
May 19, 2016 2:11 pm

Anderson Cooper is a tool for Clinton…and a dumbass tool at that. Watch his ignorance here.

Anonymous
Anonymous
May 19, 2016 4:04 pm

Don’t underestimate Hillary, there’s still a lot of tricks that can be played by her and she is an expert at all of them.

Stucky
Stucky
May 19, 2016 4:36 pm

“And their “Love Trumps Hate” slogan is two-thirds “Love Trump.” Any trained persuader knows people put more cognitive weight on the first part of sentences.” ———- article

It can also be read as loving Trump’s hate by merely inserting an apostrophe, like this —- “Love Trump’s Hate”.

rhs jr
rhs jr
May 19, 2016 4:38 pm

The “ghost” of Eleanor Roosevelt advise Harpy in seances; what a lovely pair.

Stucky
Stucky
May 19, 2016 4:39 pm

I literally can’t watch even 10 seconds of Anderson Cooper. Literally. He allows men to stick their dicks up his ass, and vice versa. Same goes for the Fox Fagboy, Shep Smith.

constman54
constman54
May 19, 2016 5:06 pm

Clinton supporters are mostly ugly women.

The truth hurts.

Stephanie Shepard
Stephanie Shepard
May 19, 2016 5:59 pm

I see there’s still no mention from the mainstream media about #HillaryDropOut trending on twitter with 700K tweets before the hashtag was removed from the front page. So much for her $1 million army of internet trolls.

Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek
May 19, 2016 9:14 pm

Hillary loses primaries to a guy who absolutely positively refuses to use 90% of the obvious ammunition he has against her.

It’s like losing a battle to a guy in the trench across no man’s land (double entendre considering it’s the blue team) who will only use his rifle, won’t use the machine gun, won’t even consider using his mortar and let’s not even discuss the howitzer, okay?

Absent the outrageous bias of all the blue team party machinery, Sanders would be winning using only the issue of her Wall Street corruption. And the blue team suckups in the failed U.S. media really think she’ll have no trouble with a guy who will use the machine gun, use the mortar, fire the howitzer till the barrel melts and have a railway gun set up to lob shells the size of a Volkswagen bug down on her head day and night. “Oh, no problem. Everyone else in my echo chamber thinks she’ll win easy, too!”

Suzanna
Suzanna
May 19, 2016 10:07 pm

Fat ugly never married in the closet gay women are Hil supporters

jamesthewanderer
jamesthewanderer
May 19, 2016 10:30 pm

Come on, give me one, at least one, Trump – Clinton debate. Even just one!

I might die laughing at her destruction but it would be worth it. Do it for the children!

NickelthroweR
NickelthroweR
May 19, 2016 10:46 pm

Greetings,

I’ve said this before but it is appropriate here so I will repeat it.

A little more than 55 years ago TPTB decided that it would be wonderful if elections were to be decided by the television set. Seemed like a wonderful idea at the time because the elites had the airwaves locked down. Now, deciding things of a political nature on a device designed and marketed as an entertainment device probably didn’t give anyone any cause for concern because, after all, entertainment device or not, these things were in everyone’s homes and most people were probably smart enough to know the difference.

Fast forward 55 plus years and we now have a population that only understands the device as an entertainment tool. Sometimes an attempt to present something of serious nature is undertaken but it only works if it is also entertaining. If it isn’t then people turn to one of the other 299 channels available.

Enter Donald Trump

This man is a master of marketing and branding and doesn’t need to hire a spokeshole to do it but can easily do it himself now that he has had 14 seasons of his reality show as a warm up. Hillary, nor the elites that support her have any idea what is coming their way. If they did have a clue then they would have done everything in their power to keep him off the air and not the other way around.

This gives me hope as it clearly demonstrates that the elites are now so disconnected as to be easily blindsided by Trump. He is going to destroy them and do so with the tools they gave him free of charge.

Uncle Charley
Uncle Charley
May 20, 2016 12:35 am

I read news sites from across the political spectrum. The one glaring thing that stands out is how the Democrats continue to underestimate Trump. Politico, NR et. al keep talking about how Hillary’s grasp of policy minutiae will sock Trump good and hard. to which I say “Here you go again…”. Hillary is a rotten campaigner and ever worse debater. Sanders was a power puff compared to Trump. Trump defeated a far larger and more capable field than Sanders, who she still can’t put away.

Ed
Ed
May 20, 2016 6:20 am

“Hillary loses primaries to a guy who absolutely positively refuses to use 90% of the obvious ammunition he has against her. ”

That’s what reveals the fact that the Bern’s campaign is nothing but a pretense of having more than one choice in the Dim primary. Grannny Dump is the anointed candidate for the Dims. It’s obvious.