Guest Post by Martin Armstrong
The peak in unemployment during the Great Depression was during the technology shift that was a result of the introduction of the combustion engine. Tractors began to replace farm workers, as agriculture had been 70% of GDP in the mid-19th century, 40% by 1900, and later dropped to 3% by 1980. This technology shift, combined with the Dust Bowl, changed the face of labor dramatically.
Politicians are brain-dead. Hillary claims she will champion equal pay for women and raise the minimum wage to $15. I do not know what planet she is on but such a combination will clearly create a major depression, given we already have this technology shift underway with so many jobs being automated. You park your car, push a button for the ticket, and pay by sticking your card in a machine without ever seeing a person. McDonalds announced its answer to $15 an hour minimum wage – touch-screen cashiers.
The combination of a $15 minimum wage and Obamacare is a lethal injection for the economy. But hey, we elect corrupt lawyers to public office who say what the people want to hear and have no concept of the result if such ideas are implemented.
Tell your children to study computer programming. What will the world be like in 25 years? Will any menial jobs remain?
We are approaching the reality of the movie series “Terminator.” Government is striving to develop robot warriors whose loyalty will never be questioned.
The future will be very much sci-fi. So I am sure someone reading “Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea,” the classic science fiction novel by French writer Jules Verne, never imagined that submarines would really exist one day.
Welcome to the wave of deflation. This trend is already causing people to spend less and save more.
As technology continues to move forward, and with all things being equal wouldn’t the hacker element also explode?
Say we have an app on our phones where we can order and pay for a Big Mac meal from the burger making machine at McDonalds and it will be ready for pick up. But a unemployed hacker figures out a way to order without paying, or maybe the government creates a robot army to control riots, but unemployed hackers figure out a way to control the bots.
Until we develop AI, then it’s man vs machines.
Hmmm
There is just one problem with this of course is that we have been experiencing massive inflation not seen since the late 70’s since the FED starting printing trillions of dollars back in 2008. This yaer alone food is up nearly 20%, rent is through the roof, as home ownership as a percentage of the population is at a post war low. The point is that “deflation” is a red herring used to create the illusion that inflation is so low that saves should receive 0%interest on their savings, retiree’s should not get COLA adjustments etc. Even as the banks that hold the money are charging 25% interest on their credit cards etc.
All the world needs to know about the inflation rate is back around 2008 (I don’t recall specifcally) the Federal reserve banks started getting 6% interest (tax free of course) on the money they created out of thin air (our money) which they “lent” to us at interest. If there was no inflation, what possible justification could the Federal reserve banks have for getting a 6% tax free return on our money?
That 6% equates to 7%+ adjusting for taxes. Lets try and maintain at least the appearance of common sense here.
IN 1998, KODAK HAD 170,000 EMPLOYEES AND SOLD 85% OF ALL PHOTO PAPER WORLDWIDE.
Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries…
http://www.patrick.net/Another+Interesting+Article
Some “experts” are predicting that, up to, 80% of all jobs will disappear in 10 years.
How does that affect the inflation/deflation conversation?
Wip.
You’ve identified the fallacy of economic predictions.
They all assume that today’s economic structures and systems will still be in place when the time of the prediction arises.
That’s something that can no longer be assumed.
Greetings,
I’ve been ranting about this for a while.
Several years ago, I worked a symposium that was about this very topic. Coming together were leading scientists, sociologists and various government agencies. Now, the scientists made their case that technology was, without question, going to displace 60% of the US workforce and do so withing 10 years. The sociologists explained that this was going to cause major disruptions in our society.
The various speakers representing the government ignored every single bit of this proclaiming that the 70 million or more displaced workers would “levitate” up to the next level of work and all transition over high tech – high paying jobs. Along with the higher pay would come higher taxes which would help cover the cost of the transition.
This was so interesting to watch unfold. Anyway, I often make small talk with a speaker while I am getting their wireless microphones in place and I could really sense the frustration from these people that were trying to sound an alarm to government workers that were just to “dull” to really grasp any of it. After all, you do need a bit of imagination to envision something that hasn’t happened yet and I can tell you that the people that work for government lack for imagination when it comes to anything that might remove them from their lofty positions.
Study computer programing? Much a I respect Mr. Armstrong, that’s just looney. I work in the high tech field and all the programming jobs are going to India and people who will work for $30k/yr. Be a dentist, nurse, barber. They can’t be outsourced. Or be in upper management where even if you’re cpmpletely stupid, you can make millions.
Armstrong comes up with shit like today’s career advice all the time. He’s from Delaware, y’know. The dumbest assholes I’ve ever met were the ones I met while living in Delaware. It seems to be a common trait there.
Actually, Joe Biden is a little above average among the natives there. Judge Reinhold has made a career in films portraying the typical Delaware Dumbass. Multiply him by 12 and you get someone like Biden.