I wanted to wait until after the second Presidential debate to do an odds update, but in light of what occurred this weekend, it is imperative that I update my readers now. Two things happened: one, Wikileaks released a series of transcripts Hillary Clinton gave at paid speeches, notably to Wall Street banks, and two, a video was released from 2005, with both video and audio of a private conversation between Trump and Billy Bush, a TV host, discussing Trump’s interactions with women as a result of being a celebrity. Given the timing of the Wikileaks release, I initially presumed that the video was leaked to push that story out of the headlines, but I had no idea that the impact of either one could be so important to the oddsmakers.
Unsurprisingly, the election odds were on the move, but I had no idea the move could be this significant. A lot of the release amounts to what I believe were already well known facts about both candidates, but the impact on the odds was obviously very lopsided. In light of the significance of the odds being repriced, it is time to revisit Betfair, ahead of the second debate, and see how the odds have moved as a result of the leaks.
As of 10/8/2016, 3:17 PM Eastern, the odds were as seen below:
Again, I’ll put the numbers in percentage terms of chance to win the election, to simplify. All percentages are approximates, with priors coming from odds at 9/28/2016 at 11:26AM Eastern:
- Hillary Clinton: 78.4% (prior: 68.0%)
- Donald Trump: 17.5% (prior: 30.3%)
- Mike Pence: 1.25% (prior: below 0.1%)
After looking at the new odds, I asked myself the question: in light of the leaks and leaked video released last night, does Trump still have a chance to win the election? Below are my observations:
Someone I know who is in media explained it very well to me; the fact that Trump’s leak was on camera makes it damning. He pointed out the example of Ray Rice, and how no one cared about his assault until they saw the video, and he told me, “the power of video is amazing”. And indeed it is: Republicans everywhere who previously endorsed Trump were forced to pull their endorsement, notably those who are Evangelical Christians. Every politician in the state of Utah pulled their support, as well as nearly all Republicans who are in tight races themselves. They are all rushing to cover their own asses in the event of what they now expect to be a Trump loss.
No one cares about Hillary’s leaks, for the same reason that Trump’s are so prevalent: there is no video or audio leak from them. I think this is a perfectly timed leak from the Hillary campaign; not only was it done in the pivotal time period right before the election, the leak itself has almost entirely muted out the Wikileaks release from Hillary’s paid speeches. The transcripts from the above link on ZeroHedge were unsurprising, but they certainly should have renewed doubts that Hillary will lead for anyone besides her beneficiaries who have contributed to the Clinton Foundation and/or her campaign.
I am once again astounded by the stupidity and gullibility of the American Electorate. It’s not like the release of Trump’s video should be particularly surprising to anyone – he has always been brash and offensive towards women, even in his own television shows. To be fair, Hillary’s releases shouldn’t be surprising to anyone either; we all know by now that she kowtows to Wall Street and her corporate contributors. However, Hillary’s transcripts are far more relevant to who this country plans on electing President. They show someone who is keen to be subservient to those who have paid well, and those who pay well have a direct impact on how policy is shaped, notably in the financial sector. Hillary has given who knows how many paid speeches to Goldman Sachs, who supports her so adamantly that Goldman employees who contribute to Trump’s campaign are fired. And now everyone is following the bait of a video, which has nothing to do with the leadership of this country, and using it to lambaste the candidate as unqualified. It truly shows that Americans don’t really care about the issues, just appearances.
Someone, possibly Jeff Bezos, is going to get their asses sued big time over this Trump video leak. Matt Forney, who did an excellent job of breaking down the duplicity of Hillary’s treatment of the public vs. that of her donors, pointed me to Charles C. Johnson’s analysis of the leaks. Notably, he stated the following:
An 11-year-old selectively edited secret recording of Donald J. Trump speaking to Access Hollywood host Billy Bush has been released in violation of the law by
The Washington PostAmazon billionaire Jeff Bezos’ blog.Secret recordings without consent are totally illegal in the state of California, where the video was filmed.
California is a “two-party consent” state which means all parties on a recording must consent to being recorded.
There is no indication the consent of Mr. Trump was given to the recording and publishing of this tape.
The byline of the Washington Post piece says it was written by David A. Fahrenthold, a noted anti-Trumper who previously wrote about Donald Trump without disclosing that his wife worked for a non-profit run by a Mexican president and funded by George Soros and the Clinton Foundation.
Chuck stated it perfectly: this was an illegally recorded and released video, that was also selectively edited. Obviously, it was done so by Hillary supporters, as WaPo would never have released this video if the obtained clip came from a private Hillary speech to Goldman Sachs. Yet, no one at WaPo seems to care about Forney’s analysis of Hillary’s duplicity, they just care that they heard Trump speaking about women in the exact same way that Hillary’s husband did when he was with Monica Lewinsky in the Oval Office backroom.
I know there’s a small chance of it, but Pence isn’t replacing Trump. Trump has already told the Wall Street Journal there’s “zero chance he’ll quit”. You should know Trump is enough of an egomaniac to stay in no matter what by now, and the party cannot force him out at this point as is. I think Pence’s odds increase is just people buying lottery tickets, hoping further leaks force Trump out.
Trump could still win the election, but his chances to win could be insurmountable as a result of this leak. As my friend stated, the power of video is damning. I think perhaps the only shot Trump has to win is to totally pull out the stops in the next two debates and get Hillary in a “gotcha” moment that he can play on repeat in commercials until election day. He will need to be the reckless, brash candidate that won him the Republican nomination in the first place, and not be afraid to mention the Clinton Foundation and the many Hillary scandals. It will be tougher to do so in the second debate, with known Trump hater and MSM employee Anderson Cooper moderating, but he might have an easier time in debate three with Chris Wallace of Fox News Sunday moderating. He also needs to be prepared to deflect the coming criticism of the video release with the actions of Bill Clinton, and possibly even quote some things he has said to Trump. And honestly, I’m not sure if he’s ready to do that. Because…
…there is a chance that Trump is a paid plant of the Clintons, meant to sabotage the election for the Republicans, or maybe he just never wanted to win in the first place. I know, it sounds crazy, but I mentioned this months ago in a comment discussion with Manuel Pfister on a recent post at SDT. Its not like we know the inner workings of the Trump businesses, or who he owes money to, or what the hell is even in those tax returns. Some think losing could be bad for his brand, but I’m inclined to disagree. Win or lose, he has a successful Presidential campaign to build his brand and possibly more TV appearances from, his name will continue to be in the news, and I think his business dealings will only increase. Most importantly, Trump himself has stated that “Bill Clinton has said far worse” on the “golf course”, which I think embodies his relationship with the Clintons. While I think the idea of Trump working with the Clintons is unlikely, the possibility cannot be dismissed.
Yeah, sure. Nobody reading on this blog – and sure as hell not Duane Norman writing here – knows dick about how business people use golf as they develop influence and personal knowledge about specific decision-makers and information sources in “recreation” among the upper-middle class.
I was told by my preceptors in medical school that I had to get involved in golf, a hateful waste of time, effort, and cost because in the ’60s (when I entered private practice) a family doctor had to fit into the role of a “solid citizen” and small businessman in the community.
“You’re not doing this because you like golf,” one guy told me. “Even if you hate these hacks, you’ve got to know them – and they’ve got to become comfortable with you. Golf lets you handle them in that kind of context.”
To put it in good Sicilian, “It’s not personal. It’s strictly business.”
Of course Trump has a chance to win. He is only a fresh fall or convulsion by the Rodhamster to make his election inevitable. That the MSM will do ANYTHING to avoid covering Trump’s on going campaign preferring to make what he said to a 1996 Beauty Pageant contestant or that he used the word ‘pussy’ in some male to male sexual banter in 2005 shows how afraid they are of Trump. They are in hysterical mode now and that isn’t because they know Trump is finished.
One thing is certain: After 8 more years of Clintons, there will be no more delusions about america being the greatest country in the world.
I read tonight that one third of the voters are vowing to vote for neither Harpy or Trump. It has been known that a huge block of voters are completely disgusted with this silly shitshow . Looks like more than me and I/S are sitting this bullshit out.
The big losers are the elites who have not been able to sell this dog of a lie……unless the red dawn moment is on the horizon. When they get caught pulling the levers behind the curtain, they drop a war on you. Besides WWIII has been on the table for a very long time. Don’t be afraid, that is a lie also and the lack of fear will truly keep them off balance. It’s time the sheep pulled the rug out from under the cabal. Who knows, they may even be ready for the fake alien invasion to go live.
Someone told me to go back to Kansas and make apple pies here on the platform today. I seriously chuckled as that is about as normal and centered a thing any of us could be doing in this artificial world of constant moronic goings on.
I’m less interested in the videos or the “vote” than I am in the number of Americans who decide, this year, that there is absolutely zero legitimacy to our federal system, and start viewing and treating it as the organized criminal racket that it is.
D the D
Bingo! Finally a sound thinker in the room. All in the world we the people have to do is start viewing and treating this pathetic excuse for a government as organized crime. The cabal laughs at the idiots who run around waving the signs and worshiping the mobsters that are their choices. Alas, that is the only choice we ever get in the USA!USA!USA.
It should be and must be a global movement to free the people of the world from the grips of the criminal cabal for it is truly the case in every country on Earth. If the unified “hive mind” of the people were ever freed from the programming and mind control, we could have a chance against this nest of thieves. Refuse to live a third world slave life, refuse to call them leaders.
I have to admit that I have only voted twice, both times to keep a senile old man from ruining the country that I lived in. Once I realized that merkins were stupid, and I am not being cruel, that’s a clinical evaluation based on their test scores, I realized that it didn’t really matter what I thought or how I voted so I haven’t for a long long time. Each election cycle I see the candidates getting worse and worse. Now even the dim witted among us have tumbled to the fact that the president of the united states is not the most powerful man in the world. That he is not even important. We could all vote Duke the dog into the presidency and nothing would change. Oh, except of course that we could at long last all agree that the current president is uncorruptable. And that is at least something.
All the rest of it is just whacking off.
mer·kin
/ˈmərkən/
noun: merkin; plural noun: merkins
an artificial covering of hair for the pubic area.
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The point is, as the Constitution was written, the president shouldn’t be the most important man in the country, nor the world for that matter. Co-equal branches, congressional vote for war, all that stuff. If the president died tomorrow and wasn’t replaced, would anybody notice? If Congress disappeared from the face of the earth, wouldn’t anybody care? What about your governor? These people aren’t important to the average person. They weren’t important in the past. The people had more to do with their local government. In the past, the state governor, the U.S. Congress and the president were a distant entity that had nothing to do with them. Until after the civil war, that is. And it grew worse from there. 1913, the Federal Reserve was created and the income tax came into existence, not to mention Prohibition later, followed by the New Deal, and everything else since then.
The only reason these politicians are important today is because they muck about in our lives in ways they shouldn’t. I say, tell them to get the fuck out of our lives.
If the Constitution were still in force, none of these people would matter, except for foreign wars, which is what people were told when they were approving the Constitution. The federal government was supposed to deal with things outside of the U.S., such as trade and war. The states were supposed to deal with anything inside the U.S. What a pack of lies. That’s why I think the U.S. Confederation was the better deal for the people and wish we had stuck to it.
I think that this may have hurt Trump terminally. I think it is over.
I have never fully trusted Jerry Springer, err Trump. He very well could be a straw man set up by PTB to co-opt the common sense conservative nationalist movement. He will still get my vote because the alternative is to horrible to contemplate.
No matter who wins, I fear we arebecoming a gigantic nuclear armed Lebanon.
The “the common sense conservative nationalist movement” that has no say in anything, never has, and never will have unless Trump is elected?
If Trump weren’t outside the establishment system and willing to give that group a voice and attempt to straighten thing out there would be about as much opposition to him as to McCain or Romney By the Republican establishment and ruling World Elite.
The current shit show is intended to demoralize the Trump movement and appears to be working. This push was orchestrated by both parties which is obvious by the speed and coordination of the RINOS dumping their support for Trump(not that they ever actually supported him).
I do not believe the video/audio on its own is damaging, but when coupled with the corrupt system’s incessant chortles of disgust, it appears to be.
I have learned a long time ago that quite often, perception is more important than reality. To offer up the perception that Trump is losing support will make the voter fraud easier to get away with. TPTB are officially scared.
What they should be scared of is the Trump supporters, not Trump.
It isn’t going to end with this election.
This country will not be the same as it has been for the last 40 or so years no matter who wins or loses, and that should terrify them -the Elite- since they have now fully exposed themselves instead of staying hidden and working behind the scenes as they have in the past.
Anon- +100
I said Trump movement as opposed to Trump supporters, but intended the same and totally agree. I would add one thing, If the elite don’t get their way they will take us to war and financial collapse.
Damn I hope Anon is right. I hate those assholes.
mer·kin
/ˈmərkən/
noun: merkin; plural noun: merkins
an artificial covering of hair for the “public” area.