The Last Confirmation Bias Test of This Election

Guest Post by Scott Adams

Last year in this blog I told you that Trump would change more than politics. I said he would forever change how you view reality. I’ll prove that to you today with a fun experiment.

At the end of this post I will give you a link to a very short video clip showing Hillary Clinton getting off her jet and into her car. Trump supporters will say she looks like she is drunk, or unsteady for some other health-related reason. And they will say it is obvious. Now try showing the clip to a Clinton supporter and watch how they see nothing wrong with the way she is walking.

Who is right?

The answer is that you have no way to know. Personally, I can see it both ways, depending on what frame of mind I’m in. When people on Twitter say she looks drunk, and I look at the clip immediately after they prime me, she indeed looks drunk. When my Clinton-supporting friend says he sees nothing unusual about her walking, suddenly it looks fine to me too.

Most of my readers today are probably Trump supporters, so you are likely to see Clinton’s walk as unsteady. Send the clip to your Clinton-supporting friend and see how much your perceptions differ on this. You’ll be amazed.

There might be an objective reality in our world. But our brains didn’t evolve to be able to see it. Our brains only evolved to do the job of keeping us alive so we could procreate. That means the reality you see – the movie in your head – can be totally different from mine, and almost certainly is. Yet we can both get by in this world.

Last year, when many observers were saying Trump was a stupid, under-informed clown, I was saying he was a Master Persuader. Pundits said he ignored facts because he didn’t know them or because he was a liar. I said he ignored facts because facts are useless for persuasion. Trump could learn lots of facts if he wanted to do so. But he knew it was a waste of time. These are two totally different views of reality. And yet they did not conflict. Clinton supporters still see the stupid, under-informed clown and I still see the Master Persuader. We live in totally different movies and yet we can still interact with each other, still eat and drink, still procreate when necessary.

Reality isn’t what you thought it was a year ago. Your movie isn’t my movie. But the good news is that you have the power to rewrite the coming scenes of your movie. And those scenes can be anything that isn’t ruled out by your own observations.

Now watch this Clinton video and notice how Clinton’s walk matches your expectations, no matter what your expectations are. That’s confirmation bias. And it is the most important thing you will ever learn.

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10 Comments
hardscrabble farmer
hardscrabble farmer
November 8, 2016 1:17 pm

I don’t think that she’s under the influence because of the way she is walking, I think she’s under the influence because I have seen her under the influence often enough to just assume that at that hour of the day she is keeping true to form.

Westcoaster
Westcoaster
November 8, 2016 2:07 pm

The video is too short and too far away to really tell if she’s smashed, but from Wikileaks accounts I wouldn’t doubt it.
I agree with you pov on Trump. He has mastered the art of selling.

Anonymous
Anonymous
November 8, 2016 2:12 pm

I don’t think she is drunk.

Use Occam’s Razor – the simplest explanation is the best.

She is walking unsteadily because the demon that is occupying and animating her dead corpse is not familiar with using her legs.

BS
BS
November 8, 2016 3:48 pm

I can’t stand Hitlery but… I see nothing out of her ordinary red devilish clothing and the long pointed tail sticking out from under her communist red jacket and her cloven hooves stumbling around after having a glass of red infant blood wine on her flight straight from Hades to greet Lucifer at the bottom of the stairs to Hell!
I definitely saw all that.

Anonymous
Anonymous
November 8, 2016 4:01 pm

Is she awake? The whore is drunk. Same as always.

Annie
Annie
November 8, 2016 4:07 pm

Scott’s wrong on this one. I would love to see a video of Hillary stumbling around drunk, but this is not it. It is too short (being able to see her walking down the steps would have helped). Her steps are slightly uneven but there could be many reasons for that. She is interacting with Bill and he could have moved in a way she didn’t expect. She just got off of a plane and if it was a long flight she could be stiff from sitting too long. I have that problem and I’m not nearly as old as she is. Etc. Etc.

But, then again, I commented on some of the other “watch evil Hillary do XYZ” videos when there was multiple possible rational reasons for her to be acting the way she was and I got some pretty nasty replies from Trumpettes who didn’t want to see that maybe in that instance Hillary was just being human. So maybe I’m just not one of the crowd.

There are at least a couple creepy Hillary videos that have no rationalization. Collapsing as she got into the limo on 9/11 is one. This seizure is another:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMHOcmDVBP0

Suzanna
Suzanna
November 8, 2016 8:43 pm

I don’t know what is going on with her but there is something
amiss neurologically. Self imposed or a degenerative process?
One thing is for sure. ETOH gives a double whammy to the over
50 crowd. Extreme moderation is the best policy.

Thank you Annie for the excellent response.

Suzanna