As previewed last night, the jobs “whisper” risk was to the downside, and in what was a very disappointing print released moments ago by the BLS, the whisper was spot on with only 138K jobs added in May, far below the 185K estimate, and below the lowest estimate of 140K. This was the second lowest print going back all the way to last October. Additionally, April’s big beat of 211K was revised substantially lower to only 174K, suggesting that any expectation the Fed may have had of “evidence” the recent economic slowdown was transitory was just crushed.
The change in total payrolls for March was revised down from +79,000 to +50,000, and the change for April was revised down from +211,000 to +174,000. With these revisions, employment gains in March and April combined were 66,000 less than previously reported. This means that over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 121,000 per month, a far cry from the 181,000 average jobs added over the past 12 months.
Not helping the Trump agenda, manufacturing jobs declined sharply, posting the weakest growth of 2017.
Looking at the Household survey revealed an even uglier picture as the number of employed workers declined by 233K to 152,923, the lowest since March.
Even worse for wage watchers, while the average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% monthly, the annual increase also missed printing at 0.2%, with April revised from 0.3% to 0.2%, while the annual increase was 2.5%, also missing the expectations of a 2.5% print. This was the lowest annual increase in average hourly earnings since March 2016.
While there was a silver lining in the unemployment rate which declined again to 4.3% from 4.4%, a bigger problem emerged in the participation rate which took a big step lower from 62.9% to 62.7%.
More details from the report:
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 138,000 in May, compared with an average monthly gain of 181,000 over the prior 12 months. In May, job gains occurred in health care and mining.
Employment in health care rose by 24,000 in May. Hospitals added 7,000 jobs over the month, and employment in ambulatory health care services continued to trend up (+13,000). Job growth in health care has averaged 22,000 per month thus far in 2017, compared with an average monthly gain of 32,000 in 2016.
Mining added 7,000 jobs in May. Employment in mining has risen by 47,000 since reaching a recent low point in October 2016, with most of the gain in support activities for mining.
In May, employment in professional and business services continued to trend up (+38,000). The industry has added an average of 46,000 jobs per month thus far this year, in line with the average monthly job gain in 2016.
Employment in food services and drinking places also continued to trend up in May (+30,000) and has grown by 267,000 over the past 12 months.
Employment in other major industries, including construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, and government, showed little change over the month.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.4 hours in May. In manufacturing, the workweek also was unchanged at 40.7 hours, while overtime edged up by 0.1 hour to 3.3 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 33.6 hours.
In May, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 4 cents to $26.22. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 63 cents, or 2.5 percent. In May, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 3 cents to $22.00.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised down from +79,000 to +50,000, and the change for April was revised down from +211,000 to +174,000. With these revisions, employment gains in March and April combined were 66,000 less than previously reported. Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 121,000 per month.
“Correct me if I’m wrong, but I recall Trump’s main campaign promises were a wall, more jobs, tax cuts, Obamacare repeal, and keeping muzzies out of the country. How many of these promises has he kept? ”
Exactly how can he fulfill those promises?
Keeping “muzzies” out was overruled by leftist activist judges, more jobs is on the way with corporations announcing the return of their production to the US but dependent on Congress doing its job, one Trump cannot do because he does not have the authority to do it without becoming a dictator and disbanding Congress (which isn’t going to happen even if it would be a good thing), about Obamacare, tax cuts and the wall.
So explain these things and why they are the sole responsibility of Trump.
BTW, he has kept his promises where he can without Congressional and Court cooperation, such as he just demonstrated with the Paris withdrawal (probably the most unpopular decision in the world at this point, at least among Elitists, Leftists, and Corporate interests).
If he is going to take credit for the stock market, he gets to take credit for everything he hasn’t accomplished. You don’t get it both ways. He has fucking both houses of Congress. Stop being such a Trump ass kisser and admit he has failed on all his major promises thus far. You’re pathetic.
He hasn’t failed so far, quit letting the MSM guide your perceptions and your thinking.
BTW, a “give me everything I want and give it to me right now or give me nothing” attitude is far more likely to get you nothing than it is something you want (assuming you actually want it, which only you would know).
Congress has to do the things it has the authority over, Trump is limited to the powers given to the Executive branch and that is subject to Court approval that further limits what he can do (such as the travel restrictions for people coming from terrorist linked countries).
If Congress doesn’t do it, it isn’t going to happen. Trump can’t simply declare legislation.
Have you contacted your Congressthing to request they do it yet?
Have I called my Congressman? What a fucking joke you are. I called my Congressman in 2008 about TARP, along with millions of other citizens. 90% of us said not to pass TARP. They passed it anyway. I don’t give a flying fuck about corrupt lying politicians anymore.
Trump has surrounded himself with a bunch of vampire squid assholes. He isn’t going to change anything that needs to be changed. Did that budget he submitted cut overall government spending? No
Is he going to address entitlement spending or the $200 trillion of unfunded liabilities? No
You cheerleaders can keep being entertained by the minutia, but he is not doing anything dramatic to stop this declining empire of debt.
Covfefe
Admin…..1st, I’ve disagreed with Trump/Spicer using the Stock Market as part of his administration achievements (the reason is obvious).
Secondly, your “admit he has failed on all his major promises thus far..” is absolute BS. You think things happen quickly in D.C.?
New Supreme Court Justice = +1; Just announced getting out of Paris Climate Accord ( a Very BIG Deal; BIGLY) = + 1/2 until I actually see the action taken; Immigration = 0, but he has taken action with E/O’s but liberal courts have stiffed him – So Far; Taxes = 0 but that is always something that takes time and battling with CONgress; etc.
Don’t be a retard.
Fuck you douchebag. You don’t get to make your own reality. You Trumpsters are pathetic in your undying love for the phoney.
Mr. Art of the Deal can’t even pass legislation when he has both houses. What more does he need?
Excuses is all I hear from you idiots.
Mr Art of the Deal doesn’t even bother to go vote on that legislation he introduces either.
He just sits it out and waits for someone else to vote on it.
Can you imagine that?
What I can’t figure out is why with the economy so weak,why do restaurants and entertainment venues keep expanding employment?
Is the economy actually weak?
Tax collections are at record levels, unemployment is very low with jobs going unfilled because no one is wanting to do them, and the average American credit score it making major gains (indicating improving finances for the average American), housing prices are still heading up, and there is good construction activity increasing manufacturing all over the country.
Outside of the Leftist run big cities, I’m not seeing a weak economy.
One article to consider: https://thepointsguy.com/2017/06/american-credit-score-record-high/
Oh anonymous, let me give you a reality check. First, some of the numbers you cite look good because of massive inflation (money printing does NOT increase actual productivity) and the 15 / hour wage looks like an increase in wages, BUT it also DECREASES substantially the amount of actual production.
I will take each of your dissertations, one by one…
Tax collections are at record levels because of inflation. You are taxed on your gain before inflation is factored in. If you are lucky enough to get a raise, you are taxed on that “raise”. The problem of course is that your 2% raise cannot possibly keep up with the 7% rate of YOY inflation that you have to actually purchase things with. You are still behind the curve by at least 5%, and that is BEFORE taxes, health care expense (which BTW has gone up at least 15% YOY). Hmmm.
Next, as far as jobs staying unfilled, because people don’t want to do them, I don’t see actual EVIDENCE of that. What I do see, is people NOT taking some jobs because when they do the math, they would actually LOSE money by taking the job. The employer BTW, in many cases would LOVE to pay the employee more, but because of the healthcare scam, they CAN’T. As they are forced by Obumbull Care to carry overpriced insurance for them rather than actually simply pay them. At 15% YOY increase (may be conservative) , employers can’t afford to pay any more. Individual stay on Government assistance in some cases, because it is a much better deal. Think about it. And, BTW, a lot of these jobs “no one wants to do”, actually a lot of people could do just fine, but for the HR Gatekeeper drone that wants a college degree that would cost the individual a multiple of what they are willing to pay. Return on investment is hard to get when you have to go in to debt for $50,000 just to get a job that pays $30,000….before taxes and health scam payments.
Credit Scores going up – really, do you not keep up with events? Fair Isaac has been gaming credit scores for a while now. The reason of course is that the credit bureaus “customer” is not YOU. The customer is the banksters. If loan “approvals” are falling off because of highly qualified borrowers either not being able to (due to high DTI levels) or are unwilling to take out loans, due to little if any return on investment, then they have to lower the bar to sucker in a whole new set of suckers….see auto financing for a clue….
Housing prices heading up? Where? San Francisco and the surrounding area has been stalled for a while now. Looking at other high priced cities, same deal. You are looking at lagging indicators my friend. If you doubt my reasoning, simply look at two statistics – 1. new housing permits for single family homes, 2. the mortgage bankers association new loan origination index. Both of those have been flat for months. Markets work in only 3 directions, up sideways and down. Sideways always comes before either down or up, where do you think this sideways pattern is going to go from here? Just a blip, when 10 year treasuries are trending up? The 10 year of course is what is used to price the 30 year mortgage….You think there are going to be more cash buyers like Blackrock buying more properties? They left the market a year ago, replaced by the Real Estate get rich quick seminars. How do you thing that is going to turn out?
If you think I am just full of it, fine, go out right now, purchase a home at one of the “seminars” with credit of course, open a Scottrade account, and purchase several 100 shares of the following: TSLA, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX and ride the coming wave of unlimited wealth potential just waiting for you….then come back here in about 5 years and tell us all how you are doing….I am sure we will all marvel at your success, as we were too blind to the “green shoots” just around the corner.
PS. When I click on the article link you provide, the FIRST ad I get, on what is clearly a sheeple clickbait site, is a Chase bank ad for their credit card. Wow, imagine, a site saying that the economy is great, whose advertising is made up of banksters – Time for you to go back to critical thinking 101 class…The economy right now is like building a foundation on quick sand, it looks good from above, but just under the surface is a massive hole that all it will take is a small weight shift, and you are done.
Inflation is running at the same rate it has been for years, yet the numbers are increasing now giving relatively larger gains over prior years.
The only people I know that aren’t working are those that don’t want to and those that won’t take the jobs that are available.
As I mentioned, the large Leftist run cities are often in a different condition, some of them have done all they can to prevent economic advancement for their people.
BTW, credit scores going up or down are the result of personal financial conditions improving or degrading, inflation has nothing to do with it, and this reflects what I see in real life.
Credit scores have EVERYTHING to do with weighting. Do you even have a clue what is put in to the FICO score algorithm? At its basic level, it does have to do with personal decisions on credit, however, how they weight certain aspects of that math can determine whether you are a good “credit risk” or a “poor” one. BTW, did you know that FICO is no longer weighting student loan debt very high? Also, banks are not even using that anymore to total up DTI. Don’t you think that a large monthly debt payment, spanning many years of repayment and interest (in some cases decades) that can never be cleared through bankruptcy, may make a difference as far as DTI? Or credit score? They have gamed it because so many millennials can’t buy a home, that they had to game the FICO weighting to continue their customer base. That is the problem.
Only a fucking idiot would declare a strong economy when even the ginned up GDP is 1.6% and 138,000 jobs are being created with 105 million people not working.
Keep spinning your Trump is doing great bullshit. You’re a a shill, just like the Obama shills.
You wouldn’t even want to know what I think of people like you.
Unwilling to do anything but moan and bitch about those that are actually trying to do something.
I think you are a very unhappy person.
anon- Truth is truth, here is another one for …..you are a sheep. Baaaahhhhhhh!!!!!
Read Admin’s comment above ya fukkin maroon.
I don’t give a fuck what you think of me asshole.
I deal with reality. You suck Trump’s dick on a daily basis and are nothing more that a Trump troll on this site.
I think you are a flaming douchebag with an agenda.
I suggest you hit the fucking road and sell your bullshit elsewhere.
One of the few good things I can say about Trump at this point is that I doubt that he could be worse than that miserable bitch Hitlery Clinton.
We have been sold out by the Gipper,Bush1,Bush2 andRepuke controlled congress. It is reasonable for us to be skeptical of this president.
Looks like a instant replay of the Obama years, report high then correct to the low ,true figures.
Me thinks it was not a miss but a huge lie.
Again, if everything is so rosy, why are so many malls closing/companies going belly up/restaurants closing?
Malls are closing because they have lost public support as the public changes it shopping trends to other places. They are downright dangerous places to be in the larger cities and those who do the large share of retail spending avoid them. (I quit shopping at malls years ago, unless I was looking for a specific store that was only there, but my retail spending is the same or more now than when I quit going to them. The Internet has seen a large increase in my spending in relation to what I spend at retail locations.)
There is no real change, possibly a slight decrease, in general commercial bankruptcies and restaurant closings
Restaurants have always had an extremely high failure rate:
“The Perry Group study concluded that most restaurants close during their first year of operation. Seventy percent of those that make it past the first year close their doors in the next three to five years. Ninety percent of the restaurants that are still operating past the five-year mark will stay in business for a minimum of 10 years” http://yourbusiness.azcentral.com/average-life-span-restaurant-6024.html
Keep peddling your bullshit you shill. Facts are very inconvenient to those peddling false storylines.
Shocking Admission From NY Bankruptcy Judge: “Chapter 11, 15 Filings Have Exploded”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-21/shocking-admission-ny-bankruptcy-judge-chapter-11-15-filings-have-exploded
Great Debt Unwind: Personal And Commercial Bankruptcies Surge In March
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-09/great-debt-unwind-personal-and-commercial-bankruptcies-surge-march
Clothing Retailer Rue21 Files For Bankruptcy, Many More On Deck
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-16/rue21-latest-retailer-file-bankruptcy
“The Retail Bubble Has Now Burst”: A Record 8,640 Stores Are Closing In 2017
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-22/retail-bubble-has-now-burst-record-8640-stores-are-closing-2017
Anon- Well that’s real nice and all but that is not what Admin. keeps reporting (that shoppers have changed their shopping trends) but that the economy sucks.
Also families can’t pay 12k-14k per year for healthcare and have money left over for shopping, eating out etc. Somebody is telling a big one.
The economy doesn’t “suck”
It’s not booming but it isn’t as bad as some like to portray it either.
It’s pretty much just run of the mill normal and offers plenty of opportunities for those willing to take advantage of them (which very few actually seem to be willing to do).
What’s your position in it that causes you to see it being so bad?
If unemployment was really 4.3% why would consumer spending be in the toilet, GDP be at 1.6% (70% based on consumer spending), more retail stores closing than in 2008/2009, personal bankruptcies surging, auto and student loan debt defaults soaring, and restaurant sales crashing? Do you ever think, or do you just spin?
Shocking Admission From NY Bankruptcy Judge: “Chapter 11, 15 Filings Have Exploded”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-21/shocking-admission-ny-bankruptcy-judge-chapter-11-15-filings-have-exploded
Great Debt Unwind: Personal And Commercial Bankruptcies Surge In March
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-09/great-debt-unwind-personal-and-commercial-bankruptcies-surge-march
Clothing Retailer Rue21 Files For Bankruptcy, Many More On Deck
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-16/rue21-latest-retailer-file-bankruptcy
“The Retail Bubble Has Now Burst”: A Record 8,640 Stores Are Closing In 2017
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-22/retail-bubble-has-now-burst-record-8640-stores-are-closing-2017
anon- The economy is on life support and has been since 2008. Again, read what Admin said to you above and think about why you keep making stoopid statements and attacking what critical thinking people have to say.
Who is the dumbass here??
You know, Math seems to be REALLY hard for this shill to comprehend. I would go through the FACTS of EROEI (Energy Returned On Energy Invested) but that is just literally spilling digital ink on ignorance. Like I said, go out and buy two or three properties on credit, go margin up your Scottrade account buying 100s of shares (hell, lets go for 1000’s), the sky is the limit right? And come back here telling all of us fools how you are a millionaire. Put your money where your mouth is.
BTW, I have been an professional investor, in both RE and the stock market for close to 20 years. Checked out mostly after 2008 – 9 due to rampant fraud and have not needed to send in a resume ANYWHERE since literally the turn of the century. There are more accomplished folks than myself on here as well, that all see the truth, and with few exceptions, we all know what is going on. You can continue your quest for greatness following the “official version” and going to your cubicle job thinking that you are getting ahead, or you can get your head out of your ass, sit down with some actual calculations and do the math. It will be eye opening, believe me. Or, simply continue to live in your unicorn fantasy, buy an Apple IGadget, watch the NFL and relax, it won’t hurt a bit…..
“Trump Aides Refuse To Say Whether Or Not He Believes In Man Made Climate Change”
if Trump keeps this stance it might embolden business to start spending–
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/06/02/trump-aides-creatively-dance-around-this-simple-question-does-the-president-believe-climate-change-exists/?utm_term=.b0ea4ed46541&wpisrc=nl_politics-pm&wpmm=1
The written text of Trump’s speech yesterday pulling us out of the Paris Agreement.
http://www.speroforum.com/a/FEFUPNWDAF41/80973-Trump-pulls-out-of-Paris-climate-agreement-full-text-of-speech?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BHVAUKWXHQ54&utm_content=FEFUPNWDAF41&utm_source=news&utm_term=Trump+pulls+out+of+Paris+climate+agreement+full+text+of+speech#.WTHWQfnysdU
Illegal Immigration Down,ICE Arrests Up
http://investmentwatchblog.com/law-and-order-illegal-immigration-down-and-ice-arrests-up/
It’s an engine burning a lot of borrowed money and losing momentum. I don’t see anything ahead but mountains. Before it stops, jump and head for the hills with some ammo. PS: I saw a stat that 60% of new housing over the last 10 years has been in a rural area (the regular neighborhoods in the boonies counted as rural too). A lot of people have already jumped.