While it’s not the first time we have observed the BLS manipulate data (the last time was in “This Is What Happens When The Bureau Of Labor Statistics Is Caught In A Lie“), never before had we actually caught the Bureau Of Labor Statistics openly fabricating data. Until now.
As reported earlier today, in one of the most closely watched statistics in today’s payrolls report, the BLS reported that the annual increase in Average Weekly Earnings was a whopping 2.9%, above the 2.5% expected, and above the 2.5% reported last month. On the surface this was a great number, as the 2.9% annual increase – whether distorted by hurricanes or not – was the highest since the financial crisis.
However, a problem emerges when one looks just one month prior, at the revised August data.
It is my sincere desire to provide readers of this site with the best unbiased information available, and a forum where it can be discussed openly, as our Founders intended. But it is not easy nor inexpensive to do so, especially when those who wish to prevent us from making the truth known, attack us without mercy on all fronts on a daily basis. So each time you visit the site, I would ask that you consider the value that you receive and have received from The Burning Platform and the community of which you are a vital part. I can't do it all alone, and I need your help and support to keep it alive. Please consider contributing an amount commensurate to the value that you receive from this site and community, or even by becoming a sustaining supporter through periodic contributions. [Burning Platform LLC - PO Box 1520 Kulpsville, PA 19443] or Paypal
-----------------------------------------------------
To donate via Stripe, click here.
-----------------------------------------------------
Use promo code ILMF2, and save up to 66% on all MyPillow purchases. (The Burning Platform benefits when you use this promo code.)
What one sees here, as Andrew Zatlin of South Bay Research first noted, is that while the Total Private Average Weekly Earnings line posted another solid increase of 0.2% month over month, an upward revision from the previous month’s 0.1%, when one looks at the components, it become clear that the BLS fabricated the numbers, and may simply hard-coded its spreadsheet with the intention of goalseeking a specific number.
Presenting Exhibit 1: Table B-3 in today’s jobs report. What it shows is that whereas there was a sequential decline in the Average Weekly Earnings for Goods Producing and Private Service-producing industries which are the only two sub-components of the Total Private Line (and are circled in red on the table below) of -0.8% and -0.1% respectively, the BLS also reported that somehow, the total of these two declines was a 0.2% increase!
Another way of showing the July to August data:
- Goods-Producing Weekly Earnings declined -0.8% from $1,118.68 to $1,109.92
- Private Service-Providing Weekly Earnings declined -0.1% from $868.80 to $868.18
- And yet, Total Private Hourly Earnings rose 0.2% from $907.82 to $909.19
What the above shows is, in a word, impossible: one can not have the two subcomponents of a sum-total decline, while the total increases. The math does not work.
This, as Zatlin notes, undermines not only the labor inflation narrative, but it puts into question the rest of the overall labor data, and whether there are other politically-motivated, goalseeked “spreadsheet” errors.
We have sent an email to the BLS seeking an explanation for the above data fabrication, meanwhile here is what likely happened: a big, juicy fat-finger error, whether on purpose or otherwise because if one looks at the finalized July weekly earnings of $907.82, it’s precisely the same as what the August preliminary wage number was as released last month, also $907.82. For the excel fans out there, it means that the August totals were simply hard coded when the BLS shifted cells in the spreadsheet, becoming July.
Of course, if the BLS confirms that this was a transposition fat finger error, it would also imply that the August number is in fact, the September data, a rather massive mistake which today has had a impact on trillions dollars worth of assets.
None of it’s believable:
They took medical / energy / food out of the CPI.
Then they show how the GDP is rising – when it’s counting the accelerated cost of health care.
Unemployment only 4% – while only 62% work force participation. 25% of work age males 25-55 are not working. If you work 1 hour a week – you’re counted as employed. While some 60 year old engineers I know, are working as security guards.
Everything is seasonally adjusted. Why does a metric drop: too hot / too cold / too much snow / blah – blah – blah.
Publish the preliminary stats, then months later (forgotten by this time) publish the ‘revised’ stats.
It’s all a fucking racket.
It is all a racket, but yet people atill muster up the ability to be surprised by this shit.
With apologies to Benjamin Disraeli “There are 3 kinds of lies – lies, damn lies, and GOVERNMENT statistics.”
“We sent an email”
Bwahababa
Liberal Fools straining at mole hills but ignoring the National Debt growing into a mountain! We don’t need no stinking Budget or Ceiling Cap! But real soon some cities and states will be in the same shape as Greece and Puerto Rico: broke and unable to borrow more money; and then WDC will be so broke it couldn’t fund a Crap House much less a disaster! Countries won’t want more worthless Fiat Dollars; they will want Yuan and Rubles backed by gold! Fools, you are penny foolish and pound stupid! The profligate maggots won’t even have a dry bone to commiserate!
So, what else is new? I would be shocked if the BLS reported the truth…..now that would be a surprise.
To the “enlightened” same-old-same-old. Ho-Hum.
However, to those (mushrooms) still in the dark and eating horse buns, everything is just great!
The vast majority simply have no idea of whats going on. The oligarch controlled educational system in place, has accomplished its goal in spectacular fashion. A totally dumbed down populace.
Knowledge is power. Therefore, the majority of the people are powerless.
Ignorance is bliss. Therefore, that majority is happy and care free.
And thats what the oligarchs like to see in their slave holdings.
The author is correct: one cannot have the two subcomponents of a sum-total decline, while the total increases.
Unfortunately, the two values are **NOT** two sub-components of a sum. They are two sub-components of a WEIGHTED AVERAGE. If the author’s premise was correct, then 868.80 + 1118.68 would equal 907.82.
The Total Private Hourly Earnings “sum” depends not only on the weekly earnings, but the NUMBER OF HOURS.
4th-grade thought experiment: Average wages for both remain constant; i.e. % change=0. Service-providers work same number of hours, but all goods-producers work 10% more hours. The author claims it is “impossible” total hourly earnings is changed.
Do some simple research before mouthing off with your 4th grade bullshit.
From the BLS report:
“The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.4 hours in September.”
Which misses the entire point … The average workweek for ALL employees will miss any relative change in the MIX of goods-producing vs service-providing.
Total private average weekly earnings =
(Goods-producing-avg-weekly-earnings * goods-producing-hours) PLUS
(Service-producing-avg-weekly-earnings * service-producing-hours).
Knowing the actual # hours, one can calculate the actual change in the MIX of goods-producing vs service-providing hours that would result in 0.2% increase in the WEIGHTED-AVERAGE total, even when both avg-weekly-earnings decrease.
Indeed, it is a bit more complicated than 4th grade. However, the author is either confused or deliberately misleading .. Again, 868.80 + 1118.68 does NOT equal 907.82.
Again, you are too lazy to actually read the article and find the data provided by the BLS in the chart. Long paragraphs about theory are just swell. I don’t give a shit about theory and paradox’. Here is the data:
Goods producing hours and wages account for 16% of the calculation. Professional services hours and wages account for 84% of the calculation. Take out your calculator and you can see based on the hourly wages provided and total wages provided what the hours in each category are.
The data provided shows that goods producing hours dropped from 40.4 in July to 40.2 in August. The data provided shows that professional services hours dropped from 33.3 to 33.2.
The BLS then averages these drops in hours to 34.4 in July and 34.4 in August. Not possible. The weighted average of the two sides would reduce the hours by .11 in August. Even with the slight $.04 weighted average increase in wages, total wages would decline.
I’ll take reality over theory any day of the week. Do some work and look at the actual numbers before trying to discredit an article.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox
a phenomenon in probability and statistics, in which a trend appears in different groups of data but disappears or reverses when these groups are combined.
hmmm…..
It’s all a load. Most stats are as believable as the idea a couple of dozen Ivy League shitheads alone can fine tune the economy like a Ferrari race engine, provide maximum employment by their personal brilliance, target an exact inflation number while convincing us that depreciating our savings every day to their benefit is a societal good and imperative. Promulgate the lie that unbacked fiat paper is real money and just because the rest of the world is stockpiling and hoarding gold we would be fools to do the same.
I’m a Software Developer 12+ years … I use Dicedotkom to seek positions … when you land on their home page it tells you number of IT positions posted on their site (this doesn’t mean number of actual positions, vast number of these are by posts by staffing agencies for the same job, or maybe just resume fishing -but this is not the point) … that said, the point is that since the dotcom days this number “for me” has been a good indicator of overall demand in IT services (not just software developers, but business analysts, project managers etc.) and consequently the general strength of economy as determined by generally accepted sources, however, since middle of last year this trend broke. The demand for IT services based on this indicator have trended down (and trended down to numbers worse than 2008-2009 levels) even though all other indicators, unemployment rate, gdp, etc have trended up. The most plausible reason I “as a lay person” can come up for this divergence is that the roi on additional IT spending has plateau’d, and this makes sense with the exponential improvements in the last 10-12 years in hardware, infrastructure, bandwith etc., resulting abundance of capacities (processing, storage, network etc.) .
Are there other platformers (in the IT field) that have noticed this trend, and does my reasoning behind this divergence make sense?
… the other thing i’ve noticed is that “generic” software contract positions have all be evaporated over the past several months … this too, in the past was a good indicator of economic health activity.
Thanks.