Guest Post by Patrick J. Buchanan
The day after his “Silent Majority” speech on Nov. 3, 1969, calling on Americans to stand with him for peace with honor in Vietnam, Richard Nixon’s GOP captured the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey.
By December, Nixon had reached 68 percent approval in the Gallup Poll, though, a year earlier, he had won but 43 percent of the vote.
Contrast Nixon’s numbers with President Trump’s.
Where Trump won 46 percent of the vote against Hillary Clinton, his approval rating is now nearly 10 points below that. He has less support today than on the day he was elected, or inaugurated.
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Tens of millions of Americans are passionately for Trump, and tens of millions are passionately against him. The GOP problem: The latter cohort is equal in intensity but larger in number, and this is especially true in purple and blue states like the commonwealth of Virginia.
There is no way to spin Tuesday as other than a Little Bighorn, and possible harbinger of what is to come.
In George Washington’s hometown of Alexandria and Arlington County, Democratic candidate Ralph Northam won 4-1. In Fairfax and Loudoun counties, the most populous D.C. suburbs, Northam won 2-1.
In the rural counties, however, Republican Ed Gillespie rolled up the landslides.
As there are two Americas, there are two Virginias.
Consider. Of all the delegate seats in the Virginia assembly allocated to Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties, the GOP can today claim only one.
Northern Virginia is taking on the political and socioeconomic profile of San Francisco.
Another and perhaps insoluble problem for the GOP, not only in the Old Dominion, is demography.
Democrats rolled up their largest margins among African-Americans, Hispanics, single women, immigrants and the young. And these voting blocs are growing.
Gillespie ran up his largest margins among white males near and past retirement age and married white women. These Middle Americans are in inexorable demographic decline.
The Greatest Generation is passing on, and baby boomers born between 1946 and 1951 are now on Medicare and Social Security.
Yet reports of the GOP’s demise are grossly exaggerated.
Though Gillespie lost by nine points, Jill Vogel, who ran for lieutenant governor on Trumpian issues, lost by six.
By 2-1, Virginians do not want their Confederate monuments torn down. Northam, sensing this, moved toward Gillespie’s position as the campaign went on. Also, among the 27 percent of Virginians who regarded taxes and immigration as the top issues, Gillespie won by nearly 4-1.
It was health care concerns, the No. 1 issue, that buried the GOP.
As for mainstream media rage and revulsion at the “racism” of Gillespie ads suggesting Northam supported sanctuary cities and was soft on the MS-13 gang, this reflects an abiding establishment fear of the Trumpian issues of illegal immigration and crime.
Then there was the Republican messenger.
A former chairman of the RNC, Washington lobbyist and White House aide, Gillespie is an establishment Republican unconvincing in the role of a fighting populist conservative. His speeches recalled not Trump’s run, but that of the Republicans Trump trounced.
Ed Gillespie was Virginia’s version of Jeb Bush.
Message from the Old Dominion: A purple state, trending blue, with its economy recession-proof as long as Uncle Sam across the river consumes 20 percent of GDP, is a steepening climb for the GOP. You must have a superior candidate, comfortable with cutting issues, to win it now.
Republicans are being admonished to drop the monuments-and-memorials issue and respect why NFL players might want to “take a knee” during the national anthem.
But if to win in Northern Virginia the GOP must move closer to the Democratic Party, why would the rest of the state want to vote for the Republican Party?
During the campaign, both candidates moved rightward.
Northam rejected sanctuary cities and accepted Lee and Jackson on Richmond’s Monument Avenue, and Gillespie ran Trumpian ads, even if they seemed to clash with the mild-mannered candidate himself.
The lesson for 2018:
While the solid support of Trumpians is indispensable for GOP victory, it is insufficient for GOP victory. Republican candidates will have to decide how close they wish to get to President Trump, or how far away they can risk going and survive.
Facing this choice, Sens. Jeff Flake and Bob Corker decided to pack it in. Other Republicans may follow. But a house divided will not stand.
Republicans should recall that off-year elections are often problematic for incumbent parties. In 1954, President Eisenhower lost both houses of Congress. After pardoning Nixon in 1974, Gerald Ford lost 49 seats. In 1982, Ronald Reagan sustained a 27-seat loss.
In 1994, Bill Clinton lost 53 seats and control of the House. In 2010, Barack Obama lost 63 seats and control of the House.
If the nation chooses to turn Congress over to Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer in 2018, will that be all Trump’s fault? Or should perhaps some credit go to Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell and venerable political tradition?
Do you see what I see?
Profound reasoning is wasted trying to analyze the dual nature of human society. Politics thrives on conflict; it exists because of conflict, promising peace when peace offers no profit to the politicians.
The only way we will get rid of our corrupt politicians is not allowed.
Fire or ice; either will suffice.
Reminds me of the shills that give a ‘reason’ every day for why the Market went up or down; generally, the reasons are just pulled out of someone’s butt to placate the simpletons.
Little Big Horn? Bullshit. The GOPe wanted a loss they could hang on Trump so they ran Gillespie. It would have been tough enough with a solid MAGA candidate but they weren’t taking any chances. They’re sick, twisted fucks so invested in the DC swamp that they would rather knife the base then allow Trump a victory.
It couldn’t be more apparent that both Ryan and McConnell’s intent is to slow walk this administration to when ever it ends. Look at this current tax reform fiasco. What a clusterfuck and that’s exactly what they want. They’re lying, deceitful fuckers who have carved out the biggest scam in history and they sure as hell don’t want to give it up.
Now this crap comes out about Moore and lookie who is jumping on the Bezos Bandwagon. Collins, Murkurski, McConnell, Portman, Flake… and McCain says that there’s not even a need for an investigation, Moore should just withdraw RIGHT NOW.
It’s fucking sickening. I never would have imagined that our own Party would knife the sitting President like this. No matter what you feel about Trump, you have to admit he’s made these Deep State creatures show their hands.
The candy ass over at Justice is a disgrace-he could really put the hurt on these DC monsters. I don’t get that at all.
MM is 100% correct. Northern Virginia is a conclave of Federal Civil Servants who know which side of the bread the butter is on. Since Clinton in 93 the hiring has been race, culture, gender and victims first. That is why there are so many “consultants” there…someone has to do the job. Additionally all the “guest workers sans portfolio” now have driver’s licenses and put them to democrat use and finally look at all the felons who voted this time…..who’d they vote for?
This is all about the corruption party. Since both sides of the isle inhabit this party, it does not matter who gets elected. These politicos are ALWAYS going to support the Bezos position, for the same reason people rob banks – that’s where the money is. Nashing teeth, or frankly even paying much more than cursory attention to this ridiculous circus of Washington politics is a waste of time and a distraction. People vote with their wallets, and these people will vote for whomever promises more of the same – that is lining their pockets. It is actually pretty easy to guess what position each swamp creature will take. Simply look at who the largest employers are in any politicos district. If they are pro big government, and most of the voters depend on government for their paycheck, well, there you go. Same with insurance, RE, banking etc. The author mentions Health Care as a big issue. Well, yes, but the divide has more to do with who is EMPLOYED by healthcare(fat, lazy admins, doctors, pharma) vs. those that are VICTIMS of healthcare (small business, independent individuals, older folks). Health has little to nothing to do with the debate. That is just to placate the idiot soccer mom listening to NPR while driving the children to school. It ultimately is US that is the problem, and that will not change until an external force comes in and changes things – recession for example. And, since the Fed has basically put the laws of supply and demand on hold, that is not likely for a while….
WE the people don’t want MAGA – we want to have our lifestyle, we want to force that lifestyle on others, and we want it to not cost us anything. All the rest of the feel good shit, is just a smoke screen for the simpletons. The politicians simply are the facilitators of that. They simply want their cut along the way, and will find sneaky ways of doing it. Nothing more. Party politics is like pro wrestling – lots of scary moves, and thrilling showdowns but in the end, you already know the outcome.
If the Repubs keep presenting even more vile shitfuk candidates than the Dems, then they will keep losing. Simple as that, imho.
I was willing to give Trump every fiber of support in my big fat body. I wanted him to MAGA totally.
But, after one year there’s ZERO major legislation passed through Congess to help deplorable dirt people? No hand-wringing is required to wonder why his approval rating is falling. I’m actually surprised it’s as high as it is.
Trump is being “Ventura’d”. It is easy to see.
The problem the Republicans face that will kill them and Trump along with them is that they claim all sorts of things about various governmental and tax reforms to attract voters but they absolutely don’t want those things to take place.
They have gotten away with it using the excuse of Democrats stopping them for two decades, secure in the knowledge they can pass their “reform” bills in confidence they will never be signed into law.
But now there is Trump they have to deal with and they don’t know what to do, Trump has forced them to show exactly what they are and what they really stand for.
The question is now how will the voters that elected them deal with it?
Anon….That is why the tax legislation is such a mess. They are trying to screw Trump with it……
Anon
Possibly the primary process, but I am not hopeful. Good guys who go to Congress quickly learn the gamesmanship required to succeed anyway.
This whole stinking government will not change until some sort of unthinkable catastrophe occurs, probably one of its own making. Fourth Turning stuff. We just have to wait it out and maybe survive it.
The real reason for opposing tax reform is the politicians know it will heat up the economy.
Gillespie is a cuck. Cucking = unelectable. Nobody is going to vote for these people. We’ll stay home.
The Republicans have two options: keep doing the same shitty things and losing badly; stop being treasonous cucks and start winning.
If the Republicans want to win, they need to flush the cucks – or the party will rapidly cease to exist as a replacement rises.
Where’s he getting his fucking numbers? Pulling them out of his ass obviously. I don’t believe all the crap lately about Trump’s support base going south. Just another in a long line of lies. Incredibly stupid people.