What a difference eleven months make.
Guest Post by Robert Gore at Straight Line Logic
Shortly after Donald Trump was inaugurated he fired Michael Flynn.
What’s become the conventional subtext is that the intelligence agencies have launched a “soft coup” against Trump, he has been significantly weakened, and the Deep State has scored a major victory.
“Plot Holes,” SLL, 2/26/17
Rejecting that subtext, SLL developed in “Plot Holes” and later articles a series of interrelated hypotheses. We posited that Trump was smarter and the Deep State weaker and more incompetent than generally reckoned. Also, that the Deep State’s animus towards Trump was based chiefly on fear of exposure and prosecution for its long history of corruption and criminality, not policy differences, notably concerning Russia. Finally, we suggested Trump is chiefly motivated by a drive for power. These hypotheses yielded testable predictions.
As predicted, the Russiagate investigation, based as it is on nothing, is now recognized as a monumental blunder. It forced the Deep State into the open and revealed its prosecutorial forbearance towards Hillary Clinton, its effort to help her and hinder Trump during the election, and its attempt to depose Trump afterwards. The FBI has been exposed as the antithesis of a concept implied by the word investigation: impartiality. Holdovers from the Obama Justice Department have been compromised.
The tables are turned. As the Russiagate investigation fades, Trump is left with investigatory gold mines: Uranium One, Fusion GPS, FBI and Department of Justice political meddling and obstruction of justice, Hillary Clinton’s emails, and the Clinton foundation. Trump could fire Robert Mueller with only a minor political uproar, but Mueller’s making a fool of himself to Trump’s political benefit. Why stop him?
As for those gold mines, Trump will decide if the threat of an investigation or an actual investigation best satisfies his leverage and power calculations and proceed accordingly. There has been no general swamp draining, nor will there be. Trump uses investigatory threats as a Machiavellian tactic to extract what he wants from compromised political actors in useful positions. The Clintons and James Comey, no longer in power and thus, no longer useful, are the most likely to be investigated and prosecuted.
In foreign policy, recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel emphasizes Trump’s pronounced tilt toward Israel. Acquiescing to Saudi Arabia’s hapless war against Yemen and Mohammed Bin Salman’s recent purge confirms his support of that regime. In return, Israel and Saudi Arabia have sat still for Trump’s discontinuance of the US policy of supporting Islamic extremists to further regime changes (see “Powerball, Part Two”). This has meant accepting a de facto victory for the Russian-Shia alliance in Syria. US support for the Middle East’s Sunni bloc and Israel as Russian backs the Shiite bloc may lead to a standoff that brings a reduction in violence in that troubled region. It has already begun to reduce refugee flows from the area to Europe.
This is not to say that Trump’s rhetorical broadsides against Iran will stop, but the claims that the US is on the verge of war are overblown. Such a conflict would lead to a Middle East conflagration and the third officially recognized world war.
Trump’s blasts against North Korea are more problematic. His task there is more difficult than Iran; North Korea has nuclear weaponry purportedly able to strike most of the US. Trump has two options: a military strike designed to wipe out North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and Kim Jong-un’s regime, or negotiations that ratify the status quo, with Russia and China applying continuing pressure to enforce Kim’s compliance. At this point Trump may not know what he’s going to do, other than more verbal shots at North Korea and continuing displays of military strength in the region.
Trump has started no new wars. His administration has rolled back some regulations and he just won a legislative victory on tax reform. That may give him enough of a headwind to readdress Obamacare, which has neither been repealed nor replaced. He has his enemies on their back feet. Only fringe elements are still talking about impeachment. The government’s statistics indicate growth is running at above 3 percent, better than trend Obama growth, and the stock indexes keep making new records.
In 2017 SLL made contrarian, optimistic predictions for the president and pessimistic predictions for the economy and stock market (see “Hard Core Doom Porn”) We’ve been more right on the former than the latter…so far. For 2018, we’re with the minority who see clouds and thunderstorms, not silver linings. This is about as good as it gets for Trump.
Deft—by this analysis—as Trump has been, his biggest challenge lies ahead. The government is bankrupt, and demographics will push it ever-deeper in the hole. The global economy is struggling under monstrous and unsupportable debt. Fiat money something-for-nothing has a sell-by date, sooner or later the stock market and economy will head south. Historically, there’s been a tight correlation between stocks, the economy, and presidential popularity.
“Is Trump Winning?” SLL, 8/6/17
Debt has been Trump’s siren song his entire career, and more than once he’s crashed on the rocks. Big triumphs have been followed by big disasters, hubris undoubtedly playing a role.
Stock market and cryptocurrency pyrotechnics have obscured an incipient bear trend in a much more important market, bonds, which in the US apparently topped out in July 2016. Falling bond prices mean rising interest rates. The world has never been more indebted; a global bear market in bonds would be toxic to equity markets and economies (and perhaps cryptocurrencies). Tellingly, high yield bond prices are diverging from rising stock prices, indicating increasing credit stress. According to David Stockman, tax reform will increase the government’s borrowing to $1.25 trillion in fiscal year 2019. Rising rates would add more to the government’s interest bill, and hit indebted businesses and individuals as well. They would offer relief to savers long abused by the Fed’s interest rate suppression tactics, but savers are a much smaller group than borrowers, and they spend less.
Rising debt and ever-expanding government are in large part responsible for a long-term decline in trend economic growth rates across the developed world. Much of what growth there has been was funded with debt. If you buy $100 dollars worth of good or services on credit you have not increased your income, your personal “gross domestic product.” If the government does the same, it registers as an increase in the gross domestic product. Back out such debt-funded “growth” and it’s unclear if there’s been any growth at all since 2009.
In the US, real incomes have stagnated since the turn of the century. Rising equity markets and falling growth rates mean that corporate valuations are in the stratosphere. Joined with off-the-chart measures of optimism and declining central bank support, equity markets are poised for a fall. That it hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it won’t. It’s never “different this time.” Given the leverage and speculation embedded in the market, the fall could be breathtaking, a quick drop of 50 percent or more.
As noted, falling stock markets and economies generally take the popularity of incumbent politicians with them. Trump, the most polarizing political figure since Franklin Roosevelt, is not all that popular to begin with. The Deep State that has ruled this country since World War II is down; it would be unwise to count it out. It will certainly capitalize on financial and economic turmoil to launch a counterattack against Trump.
Next year’s silver lining may be that it marks peak government. Governments have coopted much of the world’s resources and put a gigantic lien on its future production. In a severe economic contraction, the wherewithal from taxes and credit markets that would allow them to grow even bigger—and thus more intrusive and repressive—simply won’t be there.
A financial and political focal point will be pension and medical funds. Many such funds are visibly under stress. Widespread insolvency is inevitable, especially if equity and credit markets head south. The resultant fear and fury will be uncontrollable, obliterating today’s widespread, quasi-religious faith in government and its works. The upheaval would make present discord look like a picnic in the park.
It would be unwise to rely on anything but one’s own resources, family, and friends during the coming turmoil. It would be wise to shore up those defenses, and soon.
Thank you TBPers for reading and commenting on my articles. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
Now that the tax changes are done, Trump should forge an alliance with some Dems – a standalone bill to undo the carried interest carve-out. Embarrass the Republicans and corporate Dems.
Political Pizza
by Jeff Thomas
Political Pizza
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Over the years, I’ve often been asked to explain the political party system in a simple, easy-to-grasp way. Several years ago, I came up with the following explanation, and, for some people, it’s helped to remove the complexity and smoke and mirrors created by the political world. Let’s see if you agree.
Picture this: You live in a relatively small town. It’s a good place to live, with most townspeople being mutually supportive and often quite helpful. There are just a few local restaurants, each owned and operated by your fellow townsmen. You go out to eat often, to support your community.
Then, one day, in an old brick commercial building in the centre of town, with two vacant storefronts, you see signs announcing the opening of a new pizza shop in one of the vacant spaces. It will be called “Blue Pizza.”
When it opens, the manager advises customers that the owner is a staunch blue party supporter, and, each month, the owner plans to dedicate much of the profits from the shop to blue candidates. You vote blue in each election, so, you make a point of frequenting the shop and feel good that your meals are benefitting the blue party.
Read the rest here:
Robert, Thanks for your articles.
“Historically, there’s been a tight correlation between stocks, the economy, and presidential popularity.”
True, but IMO that correlation was due to retail investors/speculators having a majority market influence for most of the 20th century. At the latter part of the 20th, Hedge Funds arose and Sovereign Funds. We now also have robot trading by the Institutions. Then we had the 2008 Financial Crisis.
The result gives the current status of the Retail Investor is less than 30% of stock market activity. As such, the correlation should not be given weight to current conditions.
Exactly right and Trump needs to control the institutions of the state if he is to MAGA. He’ll have the Fed due to his appointments and, this is where his tax cuts and the aforementioned come in, he can control the SCOTUS if he can hold or increase the GOP Senate Majority next year.
Democrat institutional control is rotting from within. Academia is bankrupt intellectually and financially. The elite institutions will even have to start paying taxes on their endowments!
The deep state is about to be exposed…
Exceptional essay.
Things aren’t being recognized for what they are- the seemingly endless stream of left leaning celebrities, media figures and politicians being exposed, neutered or removed from the public eye for their hypocritical behavior indicates an organized and well planned rout of adversaries, and more importantly a real draining of the swamp in terms of funding. The DNC booted it’s top fundraiser a couple of months back, they are down 2:1 to the RNC. The #MeToo crowd has set the progressive women against their progressive male counterparts, the weakened coalitions of widely varied minority factions are already starting to turn against each other and the never ending Russian Investigation has only confirmed that the people behind it are either flat out wrong or grossly incompetent. Every couple of days they expose yet another Democratic operative in place where you’d expect some degree of neutrality, weakening any argument they may yet bring to the table. There appears to be an almost perfect storm of Media malfeasance, political ineptitude, and fragmenting allegiances while the guy at the helm never seems to flag or waver. All they’ve got is that he tweets the wrong way.
Something is going on and it appears to be big. Judging by the confidence on the one side and the disarray on the other, you’ve got to be blind not to sense a change in the weather.
HSF,
Thanks, and while I predict the weather’s going to get rougher, I sincerely hope I’m wrong (see comment to starfcker below). Either way, Trump’s first eleven months have far surpassed the doom predicted by his legions of critics.
Little ripples in the pond forming everywhere for the globalists. Some starting here this week. Will be interesting to see what they become. I wonder, are the laws just for little people? Time will tell.
Thanks for what you do Robert. From the Great White North, have a Merry Christmas and a Prosperous New Year.
Thanks. From the New Mexico desert, Merry Chrismas and Happy New Year, Francis.
HSF Merry Christmas! I wish I could share your optimistic prognosis. The academic world has been rotten for 30 years but it suffers from no funding problems since it can just raise tuition and studets just borrow more or receive bigger government grants. Case in point SUNY and Cuomo. Unfortunately, the Alabama election was a mortal wound for the President. Even if Roy Brown had been elected and not seated or forced to resign the Governor woild be able to name a faithful place holder. Consequently, with 49 sure votes for Obamacare repeal this makes the feckless trio of Collins, Corker and McCain even more dangerous. I would like to think it was the democrats and the entrenched bureaucrasy that were in disarray but I think the facts demonstrate that it is the republicans who are confused. The Tax bill is heralded as a legislative accomplishment and perhaps it is that. Nevertheless, I don’t know of a person who supported the President because he promised to reform taxes. I too feel we are better off as a country at the start of 18 than we would have been if the harpy was starting year 2 of 8.
Trump LAYING IT ON THICK!
Nope. You have a fundamental misunderstanding of what’s coming based on a mindset that sees financialization as the only economic activity that matters. Stockman is caught in the same rut. I expect us to see a turnaround much like Reagan’s. No need to debate this, let’s just watch. Merry Christmas, Robert. Let’s have a wonderful and prosperous New Year.
When you’re in as deep a hole as were in, debt is the only thing, ultimately, that matters. When Reagan was elected debt was a pittance compared to what it is now, both in absolutely terms and relative to GDP. The baby boomers were entering their prime earning years, bonds began a 34 year bull market in 1982 as interest rates fell from double digits, and stocks were screamingly cheap. Now the boomers are retiring and drawing on Social Security and Medicare, interest rates have nowhere to go but up, and stocks are overvalued. But like you say, no need to debate this, we can just watch. I hope you’re right, but I’m not putting any money on it.
???
Asset forfeiture of the seditionists will total many Trillion$. Sale of public lands out West will yield more Trillion$. A truly growing economy again will generate budget surpluses. Couple that with cutting of wasteful and duplicated spending, and you put those surpluses on steroids.
It isn’t ALL doom & gloom, though it would been had Hillary or Jeb! prevailed.
Trump chose the backing of the MIC… unfortunately for the people, a side had to be chosen in the mass of unconstitutional govt agencies and he chose the only one and the only branch (Marines) that have been shown in continual DoD surveys to be loyal to the Constitution over the govt. All other branches are wishy washy at best. And so what we see is a blended mix of garbage that seems like a pro-America agenda mushed together with MIC compromises and war on the horizon. Did the author conveniently leave out Ukraine? Everyone seems to have forgotten Ukraine when Syria came on the scene (now legally and openly selling arms).
The items that have been repealed of passed through have almost all been EOs and can all be redone if need be without congress.. so those are victories? No they are pacification for the cheering masses of idiots who need something to cheer about, like a first down in football. This tax plan.. well, its not what people think and surely wont be anything to cheer about if you look at the details and timeline but hey most folks that write about this shit are writers and have no math ability or background to make actual assessments on this bill (btw that ACA mandate is future canceled no immediate and congress passed through ’emergency’ funding to prevent the tax cut bill from effecting current programs through the new year…but sure is a victory).
Any real progress for the people has been shelved… no 2nd amendment reciprocity… further spying on American people (and you know Rand cant filibuster forever so its passing)… the police state expanded as well as confiscatory powers… sanctuary cities run amok as do ‘federal’ judges usurping owers not bestowed to them… the keebler elf has done nothing but bumble about in press conferences not sure how to use his power (is anyone sure he was actually a lawyer) …
smoke and mirrors and good speeches, but anything that can be undone with a pen can be redone with a pen… What we are going to see is a march right into tech based slavery on the 5G grid, all while cheering our march because the speeches say patriotic things (reminds me of Will Ferrel in The Campaign)
McCabe’s resignation to get his pension shows how weak the conspirators really are. $100,000 per year is chicken feed in terms of the importance of the Deputy Director of the FBI’s testimony but he is the Democrats version of General Flynn. A man left as L. Patrick Grey once said, alone and Slowly Twisting in the Wind” only, unlike Flynn, facing serious charges and with no presidential pardon available.
If the Democrats can’t protect McCabe they are in serious trouble.
I just had a thought.
How did Trump manage a recovery after his massive business losses in the 1980’s and 90’s? Bankruptcies, each of them a Chapter 11- a reorganization of a company that allows it to continue to operate while dumping all of it’s debt. He seemed to have no problem using the law to dump his corporate responsibility to those who trusted in his ability to repay. And it worked. Again, and again, and again, and again. That’s what you call experience.
So the other day as I was reading the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act (not ironically an Obama administration attempt to “punish” Russia while at the same time allowing for a business as usual quid pro quo set up) to get a better understanding of the December 21st Executive Order signed by Trump and all of a sudden it dawned on me-
This EO declares a “National Emergency” and while the human rights violations were the window dressing, it was the corruption angle that intrigued me because that word can be used to cover one hell of a lot of behaviors. It is the CAATSA statute that’s buried in the language of the Act that should be sending shock waves through the adversaries of GEOTUS. Engage in any type of corruption that constitutes a threat to the US and not only does the target lose everything he/she/it has in the US, so does anyone connected to them, any type of association.
So let’s pretend, for the sake of argument, that a specific person, foundation, NGO, corporation of banking institution runs afoul of this EO. All of their assets are seized or frozen which prevents them from ever being negotiated until such time as A) they lose them upon conviction or B) they are ever unlocked if the government prosecution drags on, say forever.
What portion of those assets do you think might be US Government bonds? And let’s just say that one of the targets is a CFO/CEO/President/Chairman of something really big, like, oh I don’t know, The Fed.
Would the term Jubilee apply?
The US debt is 20 Trillion dollars. How much easier would things be if it were to suddenly be one half that? And should the US prevail in it’s prosecution, then that “debt” would now become moot.
Sound crazy? After all, what is debt but a promise to repay? And what if it were shown that those who held government debt were actually acting in collusion with malefactors that sought to undermine our Nation and it’s institutions, would the population rise up to demand that an evil doer be properly recompensed or would they gloat at their misfortune instead?
I think we are watching a modern day global equivalent of The Sting unfold before our very eyes.
If you are correct, I recommend Admin for the Neuman character. Who does Redford? Probably should cast EC so we get the ethnicity points.
Maggie,
It’s your turn. I haven’t heard from you in a bit.
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Robert (QSLV)
Issued on February 9, 2017:
Presidential Executive Order on Enforcing Federal Law with Respect to Transnational Criminal Organizations and Preventing International Trafficking
Tony Podesta resigns from Podesta Group around Halloween, 2017
Eric Schmidt, the Chairman of Google’s parent company resigns yesterday
Coincidence? Have the tables turned?
Or will war soon tank the American economy? The Dark Powers need it to happen prior to 2018 at the earliest and prior to 2020 at the latest.
Robert is correct when he wrote above:
As speculated here before: Economic chaos would lead to starvation, mob mentality, war, death, destruction and blood flowing in the streets of U.S. cities like wine from a broken cask. Then, out of the complete chaos a new world order could one day arise as a phoenix from the ashes of this current (Bretton Woods) system.
Will it be liberty? Or tyranny? There is no middle ground.
HSF I don’t think tRump is that smart. Also don’t forget that he sucks Zionist and Goldman Sachs cock on a daily basis. Oh How I wish I were wrong on this
I voted for Trump but sometimes I want yell at him through the tv.I want my damn wall on the southern border.I want legal immigration stop. Political subversion of our Nation is taking place right before our eyes and it’s so frustrating.
Keep up the writing Robert. Your eye on the Political situation is always interesting.
Thanks. I won’t quit writing until I quit breathing.
I hate those communist traitor son of bitches in the deep state. I hate their stooges in the media. Though still skeptical I am hoping Trump sticks it up their asses with no ky jelly.
Andrew McCabe and James Baker- two more down. A side effect of the Strzok It/Gummy Page affair or just two more rats scrambling through the portals?
Tell me that this is normal.
This article in today’s New York Times is what was distributed to smart phones, tablets, and other devices all around the world:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/23/us/politics/mccabe-fbi-trump-russia.html
It paints Trump as a bully with no mention of the “insurance policy” that Peter Strzok and Lisa Page discussed with Andrew McCabe in “Andy’s office”.
Why would they leave that out? Instead, the Times makes it seem that “the political hit job on McCabe” is almost akin to Trump obstructing justice. Why, it’s almost as if the reporting is biased against Trump. Weird.
GoOgle “we are evil”, as I shall now to refer them , is spying on anyone who attempts boycotting GoOgle “we are evil” by choosing a different browser for default, but when using Yandex over the default, then trying to open a new page, it opens to GoOgle “we are evil” anyways, meaning that GoOgle “we are evil” is shadowing Yandex, as well as US competion browsers . I have attempted to block them from my phone repeatedly.
Ok. It isn’t only Yandex. It is any search engine other than GoOgle we are evil.
Thanks Robert. While I don’t get to comment as much as I’d like, I read every one of your posts, and I thank you for taking the time to share with us. Merry Christmas & a Happy 2018 from northwest Arizona!
Thx, Mr. Gore, for such an intelligent analysis so very thoughtfully presented. Wish I could do the same but still so busy “digging in/hunkering down”. The daily activities of getting S-I-M-P-L-Y GATHERed/GROUPed, GUNned , GARDENed and PROVISIONED on this “portion” of inland, arable, RURAL, UN-encumbered/UN-addressed GROUND here in Southern AZ, so GRACEfully “enTRUSTed” to my care by the “almighty Author”[Lord], continues to be both satisfying and fulfilling; and perhaps a “coming full circle” for this former Midwest farm boy who grew up shoveling feed DAILY in to animal’s front-ends and manure away from their rear-ends while tilling, planting, cultivating and harvesting – not to mention the constant associated machinery adaptions and repair surprises.
As a FIRST-year “Boomer” (’46), when the carnage/violent mass blood-letting was replaced with ejaculate of mass “divine co-minglings” of [returning war vet] Man to [waiting] wo[mb]Man; now at 71+, after also being drafted and experiencing war myself “up close and personal” in ‘Nam (’69), followed by a couple of years of int’l careening – pretty-much ripped to the tits 24/7, culminating in 5 years at Bang-Kwang, Thailand’s notorious maximum security prison, I am now increasingly mollified daily by the thought of being “a little closer to Home”. Considering the “State” of absolutely blatant and pervasive “official” criminality, PRIVATELY-held [NOT]Federal[NO]Reserve on-going FIAT debt-enslavement, corp-owned media “DISinfo-tainment” DISTRACTION, BigPharma/al-CIA-da mass drug-trafficking/pushing, debilitating “MonSATAN” GM/chem saturation, forced adjuvant/chem-adulterated vaccines, corp/gov-subsidized lib-turd academic cry-bullies, AI killer drones/robots, cyber-war, space weapons, brain chips etc; I hope the almighty “Author/Lord” has already “checked me out” before – as Jim Morrison of the Doors was purported to once not-so-eloquently have stated, “. . . the whole sh*t-house goes up in flames”, and the radioactive ash begins to settle along with that of the on-going Fukushima catastrophe. Now, as a [daily] REPENTing and therefore REDEEMed reprobate, it is [continuously] incumbent upon me to both “give NOTICE” and humbly seek the forgiveness of each and every other very special and unique Man/wo[mb]Man, created in the image of said “Author” and manifested IN to this world, but . . . “NOT OF it”.
THERE WILL BE WAR! “A war is coming”, as a marine general recently declared. And big-ass WAR has been the int’l financial [D]elites/PTB’s (Psychopaths That Bugger) ultimate resort/historical method of DISTRACTION to [quietly] “exit, stage left” to their remote digs from which they fund ALL the belligerents and . . . then the REBUILD with fiat currencies issued thru PRIVATELY-held CB’s – “FUNDED” into circulation on the “AUTHORizing” signatures of dumbed-down pleb borrowers, while the coupon/interest amt remains UN-funded, of course. I can attest though, there is absolutely N-O-T-H-I-N-G “glorious” or “romantic” about unmitigated “armed conflict” / W-A-R, especially – no longer “if”, but – WHEN it comes to YOUR “Hood”.
I would like to take this opportunity to respectfully encourage “coasters” – both geo-physical AND economic, “citYzens”, unemployABLE/in-debted/subsidized basement-dwelling “never-Trumpsters/SJWs” and other clueless, dumbed-down, drug-addled retards/”captureds” to “get the HELLo out of Dodge” in the remaining time. As the “Quickening” gets more exciting/out-of-control daily and, at some not-yet-known triggering inflection point/critical mass moment, when the “BIG LIE[s]” can no longer be sustained, entropy will no longer be forestalled/denied. At that event, in what circumstance would One rather find Oneself??? The “Blessings from the Beginning” are revealed and thereby accessible to the faithfully REPENTant/REDEEMed/GATHERing Remnant[s], fulfilled in daily fellowship of collaborative PRODUCTIVE enterprise and the opportunity to assist/gather other REPENTing in greater need. And as such . . . relieved, humbled and thankful for sight of One’s salvation BEFORE having – unknowingly – “run out One’s clock”.
May this Christmas be a bless-ed [Truth] “REVEALation” to each and every”One[1s]” – even the pathetic, semi-literate/functional, Soros/Obummer/HildaBeast-subsidized doofus, hooded, masked “antifa spooks” and other protesting addled, social misfits with a vocabulary limited to single-word labels/profanities and violence. When the situation totally breaks down, do you REALLY think roving armed gangs of thugs and/or teams of knuckle-dragging gov-enforcers will give your “presumed entitlement” even a FIRST thought? I think . . . NOT! If I recall correctly, it was Stalin who once stated something to the effect that, “one death is a tragedy, ten thousand a statistic”, which seems to be validated with increasingly frequent shootings and ensuing riots/violence. ‘Nuf said . . .
Wholy has had a tad too much egg nog.
Trump Should Stop Asking What Would Jared Do, and Start Asking What Would Jesus Do – Andrea Iravani