by the subway philosopher™
Bad news. Civilization is going to end. No doubt it will end only a few nanoseconds, geologically speaking, before we welcome the brave new world that’s forever just around the corner.
Picture yourself a peasant, hungry and cold, PhD in hand.
The glory days of oil are done, according to The Archdruid and many others, culminating not in a heart-warming cataclysmic schadenfreude-laden disaster whereby the swamp spontaneously combusts in its own necrotic out-gassings (as it deservedly should), but rather a tedious and unpleasant centuries-long slide down the energy slope into micro-societies dependent on brute human labor, assisted by (if we’re lucky) steam-punk technology, which is a lot less glamorous than it sounds.
In other words, progress is limited and finite, and we’re likely not going to the stars, ever. In fact, we’re probably headed for hell in a handbasket, as the saying goes, but slowly, slowly. Picture yourself a peasant: hungry, cold and dirty, hand-laboring in the fields, entirely lacking the pleasures of tractors, coffee, showers, and smartphones.
Anyone who’s ever tried to start a small business knows that political and economic progress is a fake storefront. Never-ending technological progress is likewise a fraud, subject to the same diminishing marginal returns that Joseph Tainter describes as a primary mechanism of civilizational downfall.
Billions of dollars worth of emissitrons.
For example, it’s taken decades and billions of dollars (just how much do large hadron colliders cost, anyway?) to discover that the ‘god’ particle exists, with no discernible impact on anyone’s life whatsoever except for gooey emissitrons from the theoretical physicists who pop into their trousers over this sort of stuff. Fusion anyone? Did the latest iGizmo give you a new reason to live? Or even an erection?
The myth of eternal progress is a world myth. Overseas, for example in both small towns and the great cities of Shanghai and Beijing, and with the help of government and ever-escalating corporate capitalism, Chinese have almost to a wo/man spread their little yellow butt-cheeks and dutifully absorbed a massive load of consumer techno-mythology. Everyone’s number one goal is to own a car, despite the drawbacks – staggering cost, lack of parking, traffic jams of truly Brobdingnagian proportion, fatalities, road tolls, fees, taxes and endless bureaucracy. A flat-screen TV, the latest xPhone, and an over-priced apartment complete the new Chinese dream, along with a big-business or government job.
1.4 billion Chinese souls have bought in; cut-throat capitalism and capricious consumerism are commonplace. China is not alone of course, and in truth it’s worked so far. Is there a society or nation in the world today even resisting? But unfortunately, consumer civilization will be cut down and bagged by the grim reaper regardless, that much is certain – the cracks of doom are obvious. Will it be an energy problem, economic fuckery, or the standard dissolution of empires? Most likely all three – they’re part of the same package.
Ever had your belly ripped out by an apex predator?
For some, the collapse of faith in the beliefs of the neoliberal fossil fuel age represents an existential crisis. But better to skip the butt-hurt. It matters little whether or not man reaches the stars, nor has there ever been any real evidence that humanity occupies a special position in the cosmic order of things. Equally, utopia is not on nature’s agenda (in case you’re wondering about that, ask a fat wildebeest how she feels about lions while being disemboweled by one).
Reality is probably going to suck.
Our concerns should be limited to the prosaic and mundane, as in, reality is probably going to suck, future-wise. Does anyone in their right mind really want to live in an energy-starved, technologically-degraded world which promises a daily diet of long, hard, physical toil compounded by constant hunger and cold (or the relentless and unvarying threat thereof), and the high probability of unchecked disease, not to mention lurking war-bands and ambitious would-be feudal masters? Probably not – way too much trouble.
The grim and grimmer future, therefore, is a burden which will be carried by the young, as always. They’ll find no safe spaces to ease their unfortunate circumstance, so we need teach them well. The question is: How? Have the young ever listened to anyone over 30, and are they about to start now?
Preserve the past.
The Archdruid suggests a manageable solution – preserve the practical knowledge and simpler technologies of the past for the future generations which will undoubtedly need them. The smart kids will figure things out, and much more quickly so if given something to start with.
We need offer something of real value to the future, as many men already do – whatever skills, information, blueprints we have, be they technical, practical or historical. The age of limits is becoming part of the consciousness of the world, even when most are, ironically, still unconscious.
“Does anyone in their right mind really want to live in an energy-starved, technologically-degraded world which promises a daily diet of long, hard, physical toil compounded by constant hunger and cold” Well, yes, we have a few of them here, and they seem happy with that choice. That’s what a free country is all about. Oil ain’t going away, certainly not in our lifetime. Why would we ever give up communication technology? I access this board everyday on a wireless device that fits in my pocket, and allows me real-time communication with people all over the world, voice, text, email. And you think scientists are wasting their time?
To paraphrase Clint: “Want has nothing to do with it”. Especially if the alternative is dying.
As the free money dries up, the mega cities with no other economic purpose other than recycling handouts are going to get hit hard. I’ve got a huge one twenty minutes south of me. It’s going to be messy, no question.
iPhones and the rest of modern gadgetry depend upon complex, globe straddling oil based supply chains. Without Caterpillar you don’t get the ores you need to make stuff and if oil is too expensive to produce it won’t be produced.
Gail Tverberg’s “Our Finite World” blog describes this process far better than I can and without the melodramatics of the above article but it is a real problem.
We might have delayed this situation if the West had stopped immigration and the promulgation of the American lifestyle as a global way of life but if 200 million Americans and 200 million people in Western Europe might have been able to live a modern fossil fuel based lifestyle for a few centuries having 20 times that number of people competing for the same resources is just not possible.
Cool idea. Far too short an article to discuss it.
Peak Oil/Peak Energy has been on the wane for so long, you would think it was buried as deep as the shale they’re fracking in Wyoming. Fuel doesn’t cost as much as it did 10 years ago when I bought a hybrid to avoid the high prices and take advantage of the HOV lane exceptions. In 2008, things were so bad, I remember Kia actually ran a 2 for 1 sale! Nobody could get rid of their gas guzzling pickup trucks fast enough. Since then, the state revoked those hybrid privileges. I used to own a diesel VW, but I learned it was only fuel efficient because it had been programmed to cheat state emissions inspections and I would have to have it “fixed” to be less efficient and legal. I took the payout, instead, and got a regular gas guzzler.
Folks who preach Peak Oil have pretty much disappeared, aside from JHK, who only occasionally mentions it.
Even if Peak Oil isn’t a thing, I think it would do us all well to step back from technology a bit. Imagine the world they’re trying to get us to embrace of smart meter technology, smart appliances that order your groceries for you, self-driving cars, cashless commerce using debt cards and touch pay/Apple Pay, a phone that doubles as your computer and knows everything for you, and everything hooked up and connected to the net. Now imagine, please, what it would be like if a thunder storm or snow storm shut down the juice. Or, God forbid, if terrorists EMPd you? Hell, imagine hackers hitting your Smart Home like they do in Mr. Robot. Or you just downloaded Windows latest patch for your home and it crashes your whole home, car, fridge, etc. Nothing you own works and it’s all linked, so it’s all down.
Now what do you do?
“Peak Oil” is still very much with us; we just have a more comprehensive understanding of the overall phenomenon then previously. Essentially the operative determinant is EROEI (Energy Return on Energy Invested) which, as far a hydrocarbon-based primary production is concerned, has been falling for decades (meaning that it takes more and more “buck” to get the same energy “bang”). In the short run the effects have been substantially masked by incredibly massive “deranged” (John Hussman’s term) fiat debt creation by world central banks. Rest assured, however, the “Long Emergency” is still very much with us and, in fact, now appears to tie directly into the ongoing “Fourth Turning”.
I think much of it was masked by the overall slowdown in the economy worldwide. With less economic activity, of course there was a drop in fuel demand, which many assumed meant we were on easy street. And a lot of people assume fusion will fix it.
Interesting that Peak Oil is considered “not a thing”. As I recall the hypothesis was that it would get simply harder to extract near the end, not be in short supply. Something about migration from oil producing countries into Europe as well. Oh well never mind, as long as Saudi Arabia has the Ghawar oil field it will remain a stable monarchy and be our swing producer of choice.
The problem is that oil has gotten easier to extract. It’s as if I give you 2 moths to eat dinner with.
Look at the estimates of oil field reserves in the US.It’s between 30 bill. and 60 billion. We extract almost 4 billion barrels a year. Hell, we export some of it if a refinery isn’t near..We import almost all oil used on the west coast.
At 4 billion barrels a year , how long before we import most of the oil we use? 8 years? 14 years? The greedy fools in the gov. want to deplete the country as fast as possible. Drill baby drill!
The military knows this. They know that their jets, tanks, and ships will stop before their careers end. They ask for fuel efficiency in all their ney designs. Look at the Achates-Cummings new tank engine.
Greetings,
I disagree with the authors premise. This may take a minute but here goes. . .
If you go back a little more than 65 million years ago you will discover the common ancestor of both House Cats and Humans. It was around that time that we start to go our way and they go theirs. We evolved to have big brains and an opposable thumb and the domestic house cat gets to be the 6th most successful hunter on the entire planet. The 65 million years that separate us is the difference between an animal that you can literally throw out of the window and it will always land on its feet and creatures that can conjure up the Internet. Bravo humans and cats!
Now, we are on the cusp of creating a digital entity that will take charge of its own evolution with the potential to “evolve” millions of years every SECOND. Within a few hours of coming to life, the A.I. will be millions of times smarter than that of all of humanity added together. Imagine the power.
When you listen to serious visionaries describe what that might look like, you walk away slack jawed. Such an entity will need about two hours to provide us with a cure for every single disease that currently ails us – immortality within the first 24 hours. Furthermore, this entity, now hundreds of millions of years more advanced than ourselves will unlock secrets of the Universe and ways to harness unlimited power.
We can have the singularity and have it sooner rather than later should we put all of our resources to the task. We need to stop wasting resources on climate change, Wall St. mathematics, space exploration and cures for cancer and put everything we can into making this entity – this God. We need to do this because one of two things will happen and happen fairly quickly. One – our new benevolent God has pity on us and creates a paradise here on Earth for us to enjoy (some might call it a Zoo) or Two – our new not so benevolent God goes full Terminator on us.
Either way, I wanna live to see it go down.
Entropy.
Nice dream though.
Yes, entropy. Humans will feel the full force of it here pretty quick. A.I. may stave it off for a damn long time and, as a bonus, rid us of the intelligently designed cancers that plague us. Finally, those of you that downvoted me do not yet fully understand exponentials – you will soon enough.
I’m an upvoter, Nicklethrower, though how AI “comes to life” cannot be explained when AI can never do anything consciously, but can only do this or do that according to its code. No consciousness in that whatsoever. Still, technology is coming in that will make us who live now look like chimps using sticks to collect termites from a mound. Free energy and replicators everywhere. Millions of people will live in mile high buildings that they never leave because their virtual reality gizmos and AI interfaces allow them to engage the Universe as they could never do “outside.” Other people will build starships and get the hell out yonder to see what’s there. Some will go live with the Yanomami. Who knows what else.
The problem is this. If you had a time machine and were somehow able to go back and hand Leonardo Da Vinci and Issac Newton the blueprints for a modern car, computer or airplane they couldn’t build it. Not because they weren’t smart enough. They were plenty smart but because the industrial infrastructure wasn’t in place to make the tools to make the parts. It took about 3 generations into the industrial revolution before it was possible to make enough metal to begin making railroads which made it possible to produce enough metal to make steam powered iron hulled ships.
These things feed on one another on the way up and they will feed on one another on the way down.
“For example, it’s taken decades and billions of dollars (just how much do large hadron colliders cost, anyway?) to discover that the ‘god’ particle exists, with no discernible impact on anyone’s life whatsoever except for gooey emissitrons from the theoretical physicists who pop into their trousers over this sort of stuff.”
Is that what people think the CERN project is about?
Huh.
The opening ceremony makes Eyes Wide Shut look like a Disney flick.
What*The*Literal*Fuck*Was*That?!?
All that bullshit to open a nerdery?
I think even satan would be bored by the retarded pageantry of it all.
“…when is this thing over? I got a bunch of lawyers to flay at 2pm.”
Reading that trash article was a wasted two minutes of my life I can’t retrieve.
The problem is..God ! He ? going to allow this party to continue rolling along as if He doesn’t exist. Only Satan has committed a Greater sin then what America has done in rejecting Their / Our God.I see no reason why this nation should not burn . Anyway I’m trying once again to prepare for the coming tribulations.I walked into a pawn shop last Friday .Saw a Remington 11-87 Police shotgun.I bought it and a couple boxes of 3 inch Magnum 00 buckshot for 600 dollars .Took it to the range yesterday.With those 3 inch Magnum shells I was having about a 12 inch spread in the buckshot at 80 yards.Best damn buckshot I’ve ever shot. I’ll be able to take down any vermin that comes on to our property.I went back and bought 300 hundred more 3 inch Magnum buckshot shells.So I’m a little more ready for the Collapse of the Western world.
How’s your shoulder, Bb?
Let’s say there are six guys outside your house and they want in. They have rifles. You have your shotgun. They shoot at the house and hundreds of bullets go through the walls and windows. You yell out at them, if you are still alive, “Hey, you bastards, I have a 12-gauge and 300 magnum shells in here!” One guy yells back, “Open up or we will set you on fire.” Another guys says, “How’s your shoulder, numbnuts?”
Im guessin his shoulder be a hurtin after firing those 3 inch magnums!!!