Guest Post by Bob Moriarty
The “Everything Bubble” is bursting. This is going to get ugly.
I suspect it began with the top in Bitcon and the other 1300-1400 related pseudo currencies back in December. I did an interview in the first week of December where I said Bitcon was in a bubble. I believed it would do the same thing every other bubble in history did. It was going to crash and take all the money of most of the investors. The piece was posted on the 10 th of December. When I did the interview, Bitcon had been going virtually straight up for months and was about $16,858, a new high.
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The interview allowed for comments. There were 136 in total. I just went through them to read what people were saying. 65% were convinced I am nothing but a senile old man long past his prime who doesn’t understand that “This time it’s different.” That may well be true, Barbara reminds me half a dozen times a day I’m a senile old man. She may well have a point. But as I pointed out in Nobody Knows Anything, “This time it’s different” is the bell they ring at the top of every bubble. The book has been out for almost two years now and it’s still selling hundreds of copies a month. There must be something to it.
I did yet another interview on Bitcon and the pseudo currencies that went up on the 13 th of December and I made it perfectly clear that we were at a top and the bubble was about to burst. I made an interesting comment that can only be appreciated in hindsight, “If Bitcoin is $50,000 in a month then I’m obviously wrong. I’m either right or I’m wrong, it’s really simple. But I’ve never seen a clearer bubble than Bitcoin, this makes the Florida land boom and even the dot com bubble look tame by comparison.“
John McAfee made an even more interesting comment quoted in the same article that will grow with time when he said, “Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. Gold is laughable compared to cryptocurrencies. How do you fractionalize gold? How do you ship it? It’s physical so how do you safely store it. It was good for people 3,000 years ago. Today it is inherently worthless. Soon it will drop in value as crypto currencies climb.”
It is a month later. One of us got it dead right. And regardless of McAfee’s IQ or wealth for him to say, “bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm” goes beyond stupid. That is shit house rat crazy. He needs to go to Amazon or any bookstore and spend $15 to learn about bubbles in history and how human behavior never changes.
Bitcon topped at $19,343.04 on the 16th of December. The other 1300-1400 frauds topped a week or so later with a total market cap of over $840 billion. That money is on the express train to money heaven as I write.
My regular readers know I am a firm believer in the value of the Daily Sentiment Indicator and of the COTs in predicting tops and bottoms. I wrote about gold and silver nearing a bottom in early December. We had it. Gold and silver have been on a run since.
We have a very interesting situation in that the DSI is now flashing warning signs of a tradable top in the S&P and Nasdaq. The DSI broke into the 90s a week ago and have gotten as high as 95 since. Given the potential for a pin pricking the Everything Bubble, taking some money off the table might turn out to be a very good idea. I see a turn downward within days. Nothing goes up forever. I’m not saying it’s an all time high, I am saying that sentiment is warning us of shoal waters ahead and we could have a major correction.
The same lying traitors who lied America into useless and expensive wars in Iraq and Libya on behalf of a foreign power are now trying to drag the US into another illegal war of aggression against a sovereign nation that has done nothing to us. Iran is not the enemy of the United States. It certainly is not the biggest source of terrorism in the Middle East and is far too well defended to destroy without using nuclear weapons. They have no nuclear weapons program and we know it.
As a guy who flew 832 missions in Vietnam I can state with absolute certainty that an attack on Iran by the US would not only fail it would start World War III and probably destroy all life on Earth. Now that would be stupid.
Russia and China are tired of dealing with an out of control country run by a pompous narcissist with the emotional maturity of a ten year old who thinks you can conduct business on a cellphone via Twitter. Every institution in America is in a state of failure. The education system doesn’t work, the medical system is utterly flawed and no one is interested in fixing it. The legal system is a joke where the FBI convicts Martha Stewart of lying about a stock sale on the basis of an unrecorded and unsworn conversation yet Huma Abedin lied to the FBI under oath about not backing up classified emails to her husband’s computer and faces no charges.
We have direct evidence that the FBI deliberately leaked classified information in an attempt to rig the last election in favor of Hillary Clinton and no one cares. How much more corrupt could the United States possibly become?
I have no inside contacts with the Chinese or the Russians. But I can say with great confidence that neither country shows any inclination to allow the US to blow up the world for no particular reason other than that Donald Trump was bored of playing with his cellphone. I do have contacts in the US who have suggested to me that a military attack against North Korea by the US was planned for a March date. It fits and I believe it.
So this past week China fired a shot across the bow of the US ship of state. Bloomberg reported on the 10th of January that officials in China were thinking about reducing or stopping the purchase of US government bonds.
Well folks, the day that happens the bond market implodes and takes the world’s entire financial system with it. Everyone in China and the US are now trying to walk back the comments in fear that even the suggestion would destroy the world’s financial system. But Trump has certainly changed his tune about how his dick is bigger than Fatso’s and is now thinking talk-talk makes far more sense than war-war. I have little doubt his tone on Iran is going to be toned down as well.
The bond market will regress to the mean of far higher interest rates one day. That may be next week or next year but when the bond market crashes, as it must do, we are going to have a worldwide reset of the financial system.
For the average American couch potato uninterested in what goes on in the real world, the overpaid Divas of Hollywood have embarked on a witch-hunt of monumental proportions against some men in particular and most of them overall. In a town swimming in a cesspool of gossip we are assured that these women were either raped by Harvey Weinstein or are now shocked, shocked we hear to learn that he abused the casting couch and his position. They prance up the Red Carpet in their $10,000 scanties wearing fewer clothes than your average pole dancer and whine about how terrible it is that men see them only as sexual objects.
It’s time for an IQ test. Can you spell HIPOCRISY? If we are in the regime of absolute truth I’d like to know just how many of the divas balled a casting director for a better part. Sexual aggression works both ways. A casting couch requires a minimum of two or it’s nothing but masturbation.
The sea of debt the world is awash with requires a reset. It may be now. At the very least, the US needs a wakeup call, it’s embarrassing that the corruption is so total and so invisible to those participating.
Silver and platinum are going to have a very good year.
I may need to send a diver into the pond.
Maggie,
maybe a crew of Mexican hustler workers…they work fast and steady.
Your diver could be a scout.
“Can you spell HIPOCRISY?” ahahaha! Priceless.
PS. Gold is up $100 over the past month and continues to rise…
I feel like I’ve read this before… oh yeah, because I have. Whether it’s an economic, societal or other type of reset, it due. Big time.
Are you prepared? Do you even know how to prepare for what’s headed our way? If so, let me know.
My guiding principle is, if I can’t see/hold/touch it, it’s not going to help me. Beans/bullets/bandaids? Yes, please. Cryptocurrencies? Uh, no.
if I can’t see/hold/touch it, it’s not going to help me. Beans/bullets/bandaids? Yes, please. Cryptocurrencies? Uh, no.”
In general, I agree with you, but the future remains a complete unknown. …but why put all of one’s eggs in that basket. I do have some exposure to cryptos–an amount I am comfortable losing–because I don’t know what the future will look like. Is it possible that McAffee’s predictions on cryptos and Bitcoin in general come true? Yes…possible, but not likely. I should be ok (or at least better than most) either way.
It IS different this time. It is bigger, with global participation in the scam, led by the governors of every significant nation, and acquiesced to by the insignificant ones. Somehow, these cretins think they can essentially drop a net over the entire merchant-able world, and keep all the productive assets producing for, essentially, free. They are going to try to put every person on a budget determined in NY, London, Berlin, Bejing, Moscow, DC, Davos, and anywhere else they get together to plan.
The reset will be the beginning of the real struggle for survival (for some) and global dominance that will play out over the next century or so. With any luck, I will be around long enough to see the first couple of innings. Huge, huge changes in the offing.
Fascinating times.
All ya’ll investors that say you can’t eat gold and lead, I want to see ya’ll dine on some cryptos.
Or too, a heaping bowl of crumpled up federal reserve notes might make a good salad, with enough ranch dressing. Can use your bonds as a napkin, and metals ETF statements of digital gold shares as TP. Flush afterwards, if the sewage account is not in arrears. If so, maybe your local municipality will start accepting pre 64 junk silver for payment.
“Russia and China are tired of dealing with an out of control country run by a pompous narcissist”
You are making an assumption that Trump runs the country.
And making assumptions that Trump, Putin, and the ChiComms are not in collusion against the deep state warmongers.
On many fronts, this guy is a poor writer. For one thing, he doesn’t reread what he’s written to check grammar, punctuation, etc. (No, I’m not being nitpicky; he’s writing for publication . . . professionally, and he’s smugly proud of how good he is at it).
“John McAfee made an even more interesting comment quoted in the same article that will grow with time . . .”. What is going to grow? The article? The comment? How does that even make sense?
For another, he resorts to childish and shallow attacks designed to make him look intellectually superior.
“But Trump has certainly changed his tune about how his dick is bigger than Fatso’s and is now thinking talk-talk makes far more sense than war-war.
Also………..In general, I liked this Post, however, Big But(s):
He did good on the Bitcoin issue, but then he switched to war/Iran, then to Bond default, then to the casting couch……………
Maybe he thinks all these are symptomatic of his ‘reset’; not me.
And yes, he did have a couple of ridiculous outbursts to make himself appear ‘smart’.
“The bond market will regress to the mean of far higher interest rates one day. That may be next week or next year but when the bond market crashes, as it must do, we are going to have a worldwide reset of the financial system.”
Bingo! Everything in nature regresses to the mean. The historical “average” rate on US national debt over the last 220 some odd years is just under 6% (www.treasurydirect.gov). Given our current national debt and its apparent never-ending expansion, when this happens (not if but when), we’ll become a full-blown banana republic wherein more than 50% of all taxes collected will be required just to make the interest payment on our debt.
Very little froth about Bitcoin these days. I guess the robo writers hit the wall. What goes up must come down so us little people can buy a share or two(sarc).John
>> Can you spell HIPOCRISY?
Yes, it’s spelled “hypocrisy”.
Stacking lead & gold.
How do you do that? My bullets keep rolling off of one another.
Leave them in the box!
Bit coin = ponzy =first in and first out make dough. The rest =
bye bye investment.
Preparation = get a place outside of a big city, as in a little vacation
cottage/home and get it fixed up. Figure out how you will expand
it if necessary. Get the place septic and well-water ready….don’t rely
entirely on city/village services. Get some back-up resources in place
for the family so you have them if supply chains break. Hold some cash
and PM in place in case your bank closes/even if it closes temporarily.
Note: If you are outside city services your taxes are cut in 1/2.
Make sure you install a top notch wood stove/northern climes.
Can’t tolerate being apart from family or city services or your work?
Get your crazy cousin to man the place. A year of “out to eat” and
theater tickets might just fund the enterprise. Find out it was a wasted
effort? All systems are go and tweaks get us back on track and we sail
in the clear? Well, you bought some insurance then, and you can always
sell and get your dough back. Or enjoy your retreat. Have a vacation
place. Should systems begin to fail, or the money loses value and
civil services fail? You do not want to be in the middle of that mess.
Even pleasant neighbors might turn on you if they think you have a
can of beans to spare. Do we really think we will shoot them to protect
ourselves? I’d rather just be outa there.
Suzanna, that is a great outline of what you need to be prepared. Short of having the crazy cousin man the cabin (I’m using my crazy spouse to fill that roll), I’ve got all that covered.
Now, just let me know when I need to flee the big city for the mountains before everyone clogs up the roadways and I’ll be forever grateful!
We just moved here.
AlsoTrapped says:
January 15, 2018 at 10:55 am
kokoda the Deplorable Raccoon says:
January 15, 2018 at 11:24 am
______________
Golly, I had no idea we had so many literary geniuses in the audience.
Far brighter people than me thought we would assuredly see a reset by 2010 following the 2008 bottom. Now 10 years later the expected (and probably not preventable) reset is continually delayed. Why? Because the corruption is so complete that there are no limits to actions by our government. Thus, I now consider the Fourth Turning authors’ comments that the only hard prediction is “economic collapse and war” at a time which is near impossible to predict with any accuracy.
All else is just noise. Like this article.
Wake me up when there is blood in the streets.
If ignorance is bliss, then American’s must be the happiest people on earth.
However if knowledge is power, then they are a very powerless people.
Might does not make right and displaying disparaging remarks on a public forum, that focus on using sarcasm to mock a message, tends to prove this. Ignore the message and shoot the messenger.
Notice the use of “ignore” precursor to the “ignorant”.
I comment infrequently here now, because of this. The comment section of TBF is very fast becoming another zero hedge type of forum, seemingly populated by flippant, sarcastic, shallow and demeaning content from sophomoric levels of intellect. If you fit? Wear it.
Out….how about being a tad more specific, such as listing the specific screen name(s) and time(s).
If the shoe fits …
Dear Bob,
I would like to have a conversation with your dick. I’ll call him “Little Bob” if that is okay.
So, Little Bob, how’s it hanging, man? You seem a bit stiff. I mean the guy you are attached to has you pointing at the moon, yeah!? He is so revved up on himself today his hormones have sent blood out of his brain right down to you and you only. I kinda feel sorry for ya, Bobby. Making a woodie for hours can be painful . . . I’ve actually only heard of that. I mean when his brain has metaphorically transmogrified and now resides in the head of his dick, whatever wisdom it had upstairs has likely given way to something that looks like a wolf whose one eye is bulging a foot out of its head at the sight of Gal Gadot taking a shower. Sad.
But Little Bob, with regard to Big Bob’s thoughts on Bitcoin, such as they are coming from the head of his dick, he makes a rather large mistake with the announcement of Bitcoin’s demise with him being the winner of a debate. One has to conclude that research means no more to him than examining girlie magazines and perhaps the sites offered on this very site. He gazes, but does not see, and even if he did see, he is looking in the wrong places. You see, Bitcoin regularly makes thirty and forty percent corrections before moving on to new highs. That’s just a fact.
So not to worry, Little Bob. You will be back to being a limp dick very soon.
The buck is a pseudo-currency. Bit’s a psuedopseudo-currency.
McAfee’s words are bound to smell, if his predilection for post-digestion is true.
yea, that was pretty gross to hear about. I cannot look at a hammock without that image.
Lead will be very valuable in the reset.