Guest Post by Jim Kunstler
Ill winds sweep across the fruited plain in the cruel heart of winter. America can resolve nothing. The state-of-the-union is a kind of hysterical nausea, and the nation hunkers into its crib of toxic diverse identities waiting for history to bitch-slap it back on its feet. History’s big sister, Reality, stands by, witnessing all. Spring… is… coming….
Things break up in spring. Nature unlocks what was frozen. The bodies emerge from the melting ice and ripen. The air is electric and thunderbolts frighten the gathering mobs in the public square, the Walmart parking lot, with rumors of war. The earth shakes and monuments fall. That’s how it’s shaping up for 2019.
Sometimes nations just lose their shit. The complex collapse of American life proceeds as the public and its leaders fail to comprehend the forces in play. What the Federal Reserve actually accomplished with its ten years of extend-and-pretend policy was not an economic “recovery,” but a degenerative disease of the social contract. If you look more closely, you can sense what will be unleashed when the ground thaws.
There will be a reckoning in the financial markets. Something ominous is rumbling over in bonds. No more high-yield for you! Among the victims of a credit freeze in “junk” (high-risk) lending: the shale oil industry. Watch it start to roll over this spring as money becomes unavailable for the exorbitant operations that comprise fracking. The swift collapse of the shale oil industry will shock the country, but it is really just the downside of its improbably rapid and acrobatic rise since 2005 on the false premise that profits don’t matter in a business venture. Only the fall will be even sharper than the rise: a few measly years. And, of course, the bond market represents the supreme untruth of the age: that debts can be racked up forever and never paid back.
Mr. Trump will be left holding a bag so large that observers may mistake him for a Bizarro Santa Claus. But the baggage within will not consist of sugarplums. It is actually stuffed with bankruptcy filings and pink slips. A year from now, there may be no such thing as a hedge fund left on the planet Earth. Or a job opening, unless you’re really good at weeding or picking fruit. Mr. Trump will attempt a rescue, but so did Herbert Hoover, who had a good three years to try this-and-that while the Depression stole over the land like a deadly fungus. The difference, of course, is that Mr. Hoover was acknowledged as a most brilliant mind of his era, and yet Reality had her wicked way with him, anyway.
The Democratic Party should have been tossed into the rubber room two years ago, but it’s still out there shrieking in its straight-jacket of bad faith. Kamala, Liz, and Kirsten will mud-wrestle for dominance, but so far, the only cards they can show are the race-and-gender jokers in the deck. Meanwhile, the government shutdown standoff may not be the “winner” move that Nancy Pelosi thought it would be. Why do you suppose she thought that the voters would only blame the Golden Golem of Greatness? She could be gone as Speaker when we’re back in shirtsleeve weather.
Also in the background: the likely shocking reversal of the long, dreary, RussiaGate affair as about twenty-odd former officials of the FBI, Department of Justice, CIA, State Department, and other dark corners of the Deep State answer charges of sedition in federal court. Many of them are connected, one way or another, to Hillary Clinton, who may be targeted herself. Robert Mueller is also liable to smacked with a malicious prosecution charge in the matter of General Michael Flynn when he withdraws his guilty plea in March. A significant moment will be when Dean Baquet is fired as editor of The New York Times, after years of running the “newspaper of record” as an exercise in nonstop PMS.
Financial crack-up and RussiaGate reversal will leave both major parties gasping in the mud as the tide goes out. And just in time for the Yellow Vest movement to cross the ocean and bring out the street mobs to slug it out on the National Mall in lovely weather. Finally, a protest you can believe in! By June, it will be clear that the old order is being swept away. The fight over the new order struggling to be born will be even harsher and deadlier. But we may not be as confused about what’s at stake.
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Edit: this is no one, in particular, trying out an email address long unused from longagofar away.
I appreciate Kuntsler when he comes in, makes his points with his well-chosen words, not his rambling thoughts on the matter. Old dogs can indeed learn new tricks, as have I.
This tiny little reference to Hoover reminded me of an odd detail an even odder American History professor (fascinating story I will relay only by request) told me. I wonder if any of you rapid internet searching fiends could verify or, perhaps, “SNOPES” it for me.
This professor had written a dissertation on Hoover, so had pored over family letters and documents. Supposedly, Hoover’s adult daughter said he’d told the family, privately, that a war was coming and he did not want to take a nation into war. Something about war being bad business, but wasn’t that Hoover’s slogan? “American government’s business is Business.” I could be wrong; I have erred brilliantly in the past.
“The difference, of course, is that Mr. Hoover was acknowledged as a most brilliant mind of his era, and yet Reality had her wicked way with him, anyway.”
Double Dee
Great to see you posting! Really enjoying your posts this past month even more than normal!! Just wanted to tell you that. Hope you’re feeling and mending well ……
I am on the mend. ‘Twas a harrowing thing my poor Nick carried me through once again.
Thanks. Just blending in and learning to focus on what matters.
“…the chief business of the American people is business…” – Calvin Coolidge, 30th president of The United States in an address to the Society of American Newspaper Editors on January 17, 1925 in Washington, D.C.
Ah… Coolidge not Hoover. Now am wondèring about the other. Both were “pre-ww” presidents…were they not?
Hoover was the last overt Progressive Republican so my inclination is to consider him a shithead. I’ve been to his Presidential Library in West Branch Iowa. We thought about visiting it again a couple of years ago but the fuqueres charge admission now. Having been there before I knew there was nothing worth spending $50 to see.
Warning: Meandering rambling through Iowa into Misery.
It has been a while since I visited this particular memory. The Hoover tie-in involves a story my aunt told me 40 someodd years ago while driving from Virginia to DC and back to Missouri. There was a Hoover in our family tree, if only briefly.
My grandfather and brother were orphaned to typhoid (1910ish) and left in the care of their mother’s two sisters, who was a Ruste of Virginia who married a Brown from Brown’s Cove. A lot of history resides in my aunt’s family tree, but alas! not in mine.
One of the sisters left my aunt a box of odds and ends that eventually was given to me. In it were school and college memorabilia, with an awful lot of pictures of Herbert Hoover in high school, then in political debates and finally, during his run for president. It seemed obvious to me that she actually KNEW him because iIn the same box were notecards and letters, with some familiar correspondence between the aunt and an H.H. There were also her own notes, explaining that she and friends had attended the rally or speech. Since her last name was Hoover, I just had to ask my aunt what the connection was to Herbert Hoover.
Well, turns out my great-aunt was indeed from Iowa and had gone to the same school as Herbert Hoover and had married his second cousin, whom I believe was named Homer. I saw the collection of photos and stories about Herbert in her memory box. She may have married Homer, but she seemed to have a real thing for Herbert. And, yes, I realize he was a friend/family member who became president, if the story is true my aunt told to me longagofaraway. But, still. There was not one picture of her and Homer.
This aunt ended up being involved in a scandal in later life and is buried in Mena, Arkansas. Weird, huh? From the Hoover clan to Ollie’s little airfield.
The museum is on the old family property I believe. I recall the original dwelling etc. Herbert was also orphaned and raised by either his grandparents or aunt and uncle there in West Branch. There was a lot more stuff killing folks minding their own business back then.
I believe it was Calvin Cooledge who said “the Business of America is Business”. I listened to endless professorial pomposity about Hoover the villain and FDR as the savior.
So I did a lot of research and as a result I concluded they both were pretty bad.
It was Coolidge.
I don’t know about Hoover’s villainy, but his cousin Homer Hoover was a decent sort, but died young.
That was one of his gems. The man knows his way around the dictionary.
I’m still trying to wrap my head around president Trump as “Bizzaro Santa Claus.”
I think the Democrats/communist are doing their best to destroy the system and bring the country down so they can present their version of what they want. I don’t want more government in my life. Get ready for when SHTF.
“I think the demonrat/republicant freemasons are doing their best to destroy……..”
fixed it
annuit coeptis novus ordo seclorum- ‘their version of what they want’ !!
I’ll believe the revolution is real when the gallows are being built and bankers are being fitted for custom hemp neckties.
Great article, full of hard reality and a dash of hope that the Democrat criminals will finally face justice, though he doesn’t state the basis for the prediction of sedition charges. Is this just a guess on his part or does he know something we don’t?
Is Kunstler one of those who’ve predicted fifteen of the last two recessions?
WOW! What a cool and perceptive article. Full blown entropy played out in the ‘indispensable’ nation. I was so scared I wouldn’t live to see the show. The sooner we get past the dying part the sooner we get to the reborn part.
If there is going to be a “vest” movement here in the U.S.S.A. it shan’t be yellow.
I suspect more of a “gilets kevlar” activity.*
*Especially in light of today’s pre-dawn Fed raid on that very dangerous Roger Stone fellow. In not-so-sunny Ft Lauderdale. More firepower attending than all of Liberty City. Well, maybe not.
I do not believe these clowns can keep things together much longer. Today, one of the Nations’ largest airports had to shut down because not enough air traffic controllers were available. Apparently, 2 paychecks is all it takes to entirely knock out an overpaid government worker. What do you think will happen when the underpaid workers start to go without paycheck? We can’t ALL live in the streets, can we?
What a shit show. The bastards making two to three times what J6P makes, with defined benefit pensions and free health insurance/care/BS are whining like little bitches after missing one or two paychecks. Did any of these coquesuqueres throw pity parties when the people that pay their salaries were f’d over time and again, offshored or regulated out of their job while they had to pay for governmental raises they themselves would never get from their employers or the pensions, insurance and all the rest? Piss on ’em big league.
Bravo,HR!
“When you’re born into this world, you’re given a ticket to the freak show. When you’re born in the USA, you’re given a front row seat”. ~ George Carlin
Yes, what we need is some of that legendary French fighting spirit!
Uh-oh.
Funny. I know what you mean but there was that glorious time back when the term “heads will roll” was born.
Let them eat Kike.
Funny? Funny how? Like I’m a clown, like I amuse you?
“The French they are a funny race. They fight with their feet and f..k with their face.”
Kunstler’s transition to the light side is complete.
“A year from now, there may be no such thing as a hedge fund left on the planet Earth. Or a job opening, ”
Jeebus Henry Kristmas!! Why do I always consider suicide after reading some of his stuff?
I’m sorry, but the Prediction Game is 90% bullshit imho, no matter who does it. He might look really stupid a year from now … except for the fact that Americans have the memory of a goldfish.
No hedge funds? No job openings? Really??? Isn’t that a tad bit over-the-top?
Then again, what the fuck do I know? Nuffin!!
What’s punditry without a little “doom porn” from time to time?
Who said it? “Predictions are hard. Especially about the future.”
Yogi Berra
When he makes a prediction, mentions peak oil, or refers to POTUS as the ‘golden golem of greatness’ you have to ignore it. It’s a form of Tourette’s he can’t help.
Doom porn at its finest, but who knows when things will go boom?
Been reading this stuff for years now, funny thing is, with each prediction, things do get noticeably worse, yet no ka-boom; yet.
Maybe it will be 2019, but one thing is certain; things will continue to deteriorate and the longer the wait, the greater the fireworks will be.
“History’s big sister, Reality…” That is one of Kunstler’s best lines.
Everyone is expecting the shit to hit the fan all at once, but that’s not the likely scenario. Instead, everything will fall apart slowly. The stock market will not go down 5000 points at once, but 500 points a couple times a week. Violence between the left and right will start to occur more and more often until someone is killed weekly in clashes. Pension funds will start to go belly up one by one with the feds bailing out each one sending the deficit higher and higher. Eventually, the deficit will be running at $3T annually and people will start to lose faith in the US dollar.
When people no long trust the value of the dollar, that is when car called the United States of America drives off the cliff.
Trapped- Astute, but Jim would wholeheartedly agree, hence…The Long Emergency.
The Long Drawn-Out Emergency. With my apologies to JHK.
I’m thrilled with the extra time I didn’t think we had…whats the difference in-between entering the shitstorm later rather than sooner…gradually rather than all at once…time to PREPARE.
I see Israel and Iran about to start a nuclear war, the Democrats and NeoCon/RINOs trying to cause Chaos over The Wall, the Federal Reserve trying to crash the economy and implement the NWO Mark of the Beast e-money Chip, the Super GSM to Debut this Fall and massive earthquakes/volcanoes etc to follow. Yes, the Four Horsemen of Rev 6 will appear on the Ridge very soon.
By june? I doubt it.
What does it matter, we are all going to die in less than 12 years. From the next ice age.
Not if you’re an Eskimo
This was just posted in the comments in the London Telegraph. Though people here would enjoy.
Jamie Black 25 Jan 2019 4:11PM
8:00 am: I made a snowman.
8:10 – A feminist passed by and asked me why I didn’t make a snow woman.
8:15 – So, I made a snow woman.
8:17 – My feminist neighbor complained about the snow woman’s voluptuous chest saying it objectified snow women everywhere.
8:20 – The gay couple living nearby said it could have been two snow men instead.
8:22 – The transgender man..women…person asked why I didn’t just make one snow person with detachable parts.
8:25 – The vegans at the end of the lane complained about the carrot nose, as veggies are food and not to decorate snow figures with.
8:28 – I was being called a racist because the snow couple is white.
8:31 – The middle eastern gent across the road demanded the snow woman be covered up .
8:40 – The Police arrived saying someone had been offended.
8:42 – The feminist neighbor complained again that the broomstick of the snow woman needed to be removed because it depicted women in a domestic role.
8:43 – The council equality officer arrived and threatened me with eviction.
8:45 – TV news crew from ABC showed up. I was asked if I know the difference between snowmen and snow-women? I replied “Snowballs” and am now called a sexist.
9:00 – I was on the News as a suspected terrorist, racist, homophobe sensibility offender, bent on stirring up trouble during difficult weather.
9:10 – I was asked if I have any accomplices. My children were taken by social services.
9:29 – protesters offended by everything marched down the street demanding for me to be arrested.
Moral:
There is no moral to this story. It is what we have become all because of snowflakes.
Thank god I live where it doesn’t snow.
Rethink things?
Darkies don’t like the snow one bit and generally avoid it.
9:40 Went home and dusted off the HK91. Grabbed a sack of loaded drums.
What the Federal Reserve actually accomplished with its ten years of extend-and-pretend policy was not an economic “recovery,” but a degenerative disease of the social contract. If you look more closely, you can sense what will be unleashed when the ground thaws.
BRAVO!