We are tracking frost and freeze potential US temperature weather maps this weekend that indicate a strong possibility frost-apocalypse is headed for the Pacific, Rocky Mountains, and Midwest regions over the next ten days. This could mean the end of the growing season for many agriculture producing states.
As shown in the EC Operational maps below, a 32°F contour line in the 5-10 day forecast indicates US frost risks could shift from the Northwest too much of the North Central states, which would officially mark the end of the growing season in those areas if confirmed by mid-month.
* * *
Andrei Evbuoma, a meteorologist for NOAA National Weather Service, provides further insight into the frost situation in the US, and what he thinks this could mean for grain prices.
Frost and freeze watches/warnings hoisted for portions of the north-central and Northeast U.S.; weather outlook turns colder across the northern and central U.S. raising risks for frost/freeze and thus upside potential of prices.
On the weather front, frost and freeze watches/warnings are in effect for much of North Dakota, eastern South Dakota, northeastern Nebraska, western Minnesota, northwestern Iowa, a large portion of Upstate New York and Vermont, extreme western Massachusetts, and extreme northern Pennsylvania. The frost and freeze warnings are in effect tonight through Friday morning. The freeze watch is in effect for late Friday night through early Saturday morning. The freeze and frost warnings over North Dakota and Minnesota cover a good portion of spring wheat. However, with much of the crop harvested, the impacts should be minimum. The northwestern portions of the corn and soybean belt will be impacted by the frost and freeze Thursday night/Friday morning. The freeze watch covers a very small portion of corn and soybeans that will not really be able to make any difference. Figure 5 below is an image depicting the areas under a freeze/frost watch or warning.
The weather pattern over the next 10 days or so can be described as progressive/changeable with bouts of both cool and warm air masses. The pattern will be driven by a couple of strong upper level troughs that will pivot around a pinwheeling parent upper low centered over the Arctic Circle near the Queen Elizabeth Islands. These upper level troughs will be associated with strong surface cold frontal boundaries that will spread across Canada and the Lower 48 bringing in intervals of unseasonably cool air. Upper level ridging will bring warm temperatures in between these upper level troughs.
Over the next five days, the first upper level trough will eject out of the western U.S. eastward across the northern U.S. This will bring unseasonably cool air across the Northwest U.S. and Northern Rockies late week into the weekend, across the Plains and Midwest U.S. late weekend into early next week, and finally across the Midwest/Great Lakes into the Northeast U.S. early to mid next week. By early to mid next week, upper level ridging will build over the Northern Rockies and Plains bringing in warmer-than-normal temperatures before the next upper level trough quickly moves into western Canada from Alaska. Figure 6 below is a map from the 12z GFS ensemble depicting the 1-6 day (October 4-9) temperature pattern.
A second upper level trough with cold temperatures from Alaska will be oriented over western/central Canada in the beginning parts of the 6-11 day period. This upper level feature will quickly be moving inbound towards the Lower 48 meaning that the warm-up across the northern, central, and eastern U.S. will be brief. This second upper level trough will not only be stronger than the previous in strength, but will also be larger in size and will have more impact in bringing widespread cooler-than-normal temperatures across the Lower 48. Because this upper level weather feature is forecast to travel further south, unseasonably cool temperatures will encompass the central, southern, and eastern U.S. in the 6-11 day period. The reinforcing shot of cool air coming in behind this second trough will send temperatures as much as 20 degrees below normal across the Northern Rockies by Wednesday. This colder development amongst the forecast models has recently increased prospects of heating demand across the Lower 48. The GFS has been most consistent with this pattern. Figure 7 below is a map from the 12z GFS ensemble depicting the 7-12 day (October 10-15) temperature pattern.
Temperatures look to be on the cooler side across the northern U.S. (especially the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S.) and warmer across the southern U.S. (especially the Southwest U.S.) in the 11-16 day time period with the pattern possibly remaining in a variable/changeable state. Figure 8 below is a map from the 12z ECMWF ensemble depicting the 10-15 day (October 12-17) temperature pattern.
In terms of precipitation, the heat and dryness have set the stage for rapidly developing drought conditions across the eastern and southern U.S. including the southeastern Midwest. These areas have seen week/week increase in drought/dryness. Looking ahead, the pattern overall will transition into a drier pattern from the prior week. There will be chances for precipitation to come across the central U.S. in association with the upper level troughs/associated surface cold fronts. The first chance will come this upcoming weekend. The second chance will come mid to late next week. Figure 9 is a map from the U.S. Drought Monitor depicting areas of drought or abnormally dry conditions.
Figure 10 below is a map showing the seven-day accumulated precipitation forecast (Thursday morning to next Thursday morning) across the Lower 48.
Figure 11 is a map from the 06z GEFS depicting a normal to drier-than-normal pattern across much of the country and a wetter-than-normal pattern over parts of the central U.S. in the 2-8 day time frame (October 4-11).
Figure 12 is a map from the 12z GEFS depicting a normal to drier-than-normal pattern across much of the country in the 9-15 day time frame (October 11-18).
Evbuoma says the cold spell sweeping across agriculture producing states could be bullish for grain prices.
He says, “the weather outlook over the next couple of weeks has gotten colder, the risk of damage to crops not yet harvested have increased (particularly across the northern sections of the grain belt). This combined with the fact that China has been purchasing more soybeans means that upside potential is increasing.”
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Good. Tired of the heat.
I’m tired of looking at all these beanfields.
Snow tires are on, a survival kit is in the vehicle, snowmelt procured, new shovel and skis will get tuned….remember there is no bad weather only inadequate clothing. My MT location is the bullseye for the cold front….Hello Winter, my old friend. I am hoping for an epic winter which will weed out those leftists faint of heart who are moving here bringing the same old values that destroyed wherever they are from (Seattle, Portland, San Fran Feces, LA, etc.)……welcome to MT now GTFO.
Here in MT we had a cool summer and lots of rain, minimizing the fire season, the cattle are fat and the crops were produced in abundance…..the winter snows provide the bulk of the water for next year. It’s the circle of life (Elton John starts singing).
yep,
ol elton & his hubbie completed the cycle of life by adopting kids,didn’t they?
Ever read “The Long Winter” by Laura Ingalls Wilder, one of the Little House On The Prairie books?
It is great, read it to my children and have read it several times since. Talk about a survival manual, those people were not only tough, but the men were men, and handled whatever came there way.
Sit by the fire this winter and enjoy true American Classic.
Two other great books dealing with survival are “Gone With The Wind” and “The Good Earth”.
Strange all three were written by women, guess they understand the threat of starvation better.
That would explain why so many have bulked up – in case there’s a famine.
Elton John is a knob gobbling flaming faggot.
and a raging alcoholic and drug addict like many highly talented people…..don’t hate on him for being who he is…instead try to hold him and others (and ourselves) accountable for the things we do…..Eg. our politicians get drunk and roll around with strippers in a fountain (Wilbur Mills), doesn’t bother me….writing a letter to the Soviet Union offering support if elected POTUS (Sen. Ted Kennedy) does bother me….fucking up and driving off a bridge on Martha’s Vinyard, well shit happens….leaving a girl to drown to cover your own ass, inexcusable. See the difference.
Am glad the term knob-gobbler caught on.
Dont forget fudge-packer.
And rump ranger, butt pirate.
the damn front has already gotten here & i’m tired of the cold–it’s only gonna get up to 85* today & i haven’t gotten any long sleeve shirts or long pants out of storage–
brrr–
Enjoy your 5 days of winter and remember how nice it is in late August.
I’ve already had a frost three times. Usually, the end of October is when this happens.
Frost in mid october is a crisis??? It might harm crops in extreme Northern Pennsylvania?? I thought Granite and Shale were cold hardy crops.
We don’t have any storms to stress about for weeks on end so lets stress about the possibility of a frost event killing off crops in extreme Northern Minnesota.
Beam Me up Scotty!
If they have no fear to sell all we get is corruption.
Between a small green house and four cold frames this will be the first winter I’m going to try and grow veggies all year. Hype or real…it sound like a good 4th Turning prep. If nothing else give the chickens some home grown feed too.
How much energy does a high tunnel/hoop frame take to heat at -20F and to provide light when the sun goes down 4:30 PM? Does that negate the value of the vegetables produced?
It is going to depend on what vegetables you are trying to grow. I have found that for greens and similar cool weather crops no artificial light is necessary , select varieties that can stand a little frost and you only need to provide heat to maintain 30 degrees. Double layer plastic with air between will hold to 5 degrees so you only have to make up when it drops below that.
Build a rocket stove outside of the greenhouse with cast iron tubes around it for airflow with a fan. The stove heats the air and circulates within the green house. Lasts 4 hours at each feeding….
permies.com can tell you all about rocket stoves–
I looked into some aquaponics, but kind of decided it requires too much equipment in my barn!
Nick has the barn insulated now. And the water running. (Postponed the hot tub… we are still thinking about the work and maintenance for a few evenings of hot-tubbing. We can afford it; we just don’t know if we want to.)
Believe once saw you were in North Carolina.
This is an excellent planting guide.
https://growingsmallfarms.ces.ncsu.edu/growingsmallfarms-plantingguide/
Also with hoop houses (high tunnel) also use a low tunnel with the frost proof cloth such as you see on strawberries.
https://www.johnnyseeds.com/tools-supplies/row-covers-and-accessories/row-cover/
Thanks for that Ginger…the hoop would be a great additon to my food growing prep.
I’m going to see how this winter goes with my colds frames and I have a small green house.
Saving both links!
Are you sure this isn’t from Michael Snyder?? For fucks sake, early frosts happen all the fucking time, and it doesn’t mean the end of the growing season!! Anyone that has ever even grown vegetables in the back yard knows that cabbage, carrots, beets, brussels sprouts, daikon, all other radishes, broccoli, cauliflower, kohlrabi, chard, spinach, mustard greens, just to name a few, don’t give a rat’s ass about frost. I have had carrots, beets and cauliflower do just fine with overnight temps to 15 deg. F. The flavor of bussels sprouts improves after frost!! Yeah, corn and soy beans are done with frost, and most should have been harvested by now since they only need 100 days. The growing season ends because the days get short and there is not enough sunlight for plants to grow, not because of the first frost!! Jesus H. tap-dancing Christ, do some research before you start spouting stupidity, would you guys?? I’m losing faith in ZH.
anon..
Amen. Frost happens.
Has anybody heard any more on the Marines being on call up? Crackdowns happen overnight or in a flash so to speak. Iv’e experienced three of them.
Flea,
This all I found:
https://19thwardchicago.blogspot.com/2019/10/trump-orders-us-marine-corps-reserve.html
Mark.
Me too. That’s a bit worrying. A woman friend is asking me about handguns. What is you wife most comfortable with? I’m a ballsy up close bastard so I’m at a loss to tell her about recoil etc. What was the hardest thing she had to learn?
Earplugs are your friend and don’t flinch.
.Flea,
I insists she shoots, and she does. She is petite and not a gun person (at all) like me. We have had long talks about self-defense, situational awareness, the Gift of Fear etc. (She read the book).
She is a good shot. But she only shoots: a Colt 38 snub nose, a pistol grip Remington 20 gauge (the pistol grip works better for her) and a Ruger 10/22 take down, with double 25 round mags. I drill her on loading and changing magazines.
The 20 gauge was the most difficult, but she was amazed when she saw what it did to the target.
I only use targets with real bad guy bodies and faces – It’s important to train shooting at people targets, with faces for average people – get their minds trained to shoot real people not inanimate targets. The miltary found that out after WW2.
I tried to get her to shoot a 9mm Kel-Tec 2ooo but she couldn’t chamber a round.
I sent her and my daughter to a self-defense course years ago, but without a gun she would be defenseless.
But man…that spicy little West Texas Red Head can cook! (And she an’t bad in the kitchen either).
i thought you were a smart guy mark but apparently you’re not so smart–
it’s a well known fact that men who allow their women to have access to firearms have a shorter lifespan than do guys who keep their women away from guns–
that’s why a gun in the home is more likely to be used to kill the homeowner than it is an intruder–
look it up,it’s on the internet–
Tampa,
No worries on that front in this 43 union…we have one another’s back…no back biting (or shooting) to date.
Bullshit
No one is a good shot with a .38 snub. Just sayin’.
Sure they are.
It’s intended to defend against arms length knife and fist attacks.
An up vote for .22!
She has never taken the OATH…but she has promised to cover my six with it as I am (wait for it) a…KEEPER.
(Come on .22 …that’s funny).
Llpoh,
Sometimes with a non – regular shooter its a matter of comfort. Its an old Colt Agent and fits her small perfectly. She wore the gun store out finding one she liked.
She is quite good with it aiming at center mass close in, and to .22’s point out of her three guns the shotgun and rife are for golden horde accuracy…the snubbie for last ditch defense.
Flea,
Just got this from my Nephew who is a Gunny in the Marine Corps.
The shits real.
Uncle Mark,
The maradmin referenced in the article on the daily coin is active, and the excerpts cited are accurate. I have just finished printing off the hard copy and reviewing it.
Thought you might want to know.
Mark. thanks.
Yes it is real, as in an authentic document/Executive Order but WTF does it mean? Just an update of the prior similar order (and therefore not a big deal) or is it meaningful…the usual fear porn folks are going nuts so I defer to you guys as to import?
MH,
I don’t pretend to know. I have suspicions and wishes, but shoot, shot, shit:
1. A message?
2. A warning?
3. More theater?
4. Prep for possible Martial Law?
5. Prep for planned Martial Law
6. Cold Civil War heating up?
7. Another move closer to the edge or just brinkmanship foreplay?
Not a peep on any major media, but so what.
Whatever it is we should know soon.
(To those reading this who don’t know a ‘maradmin’ is a Marine Order).
The growing season ends every year about this time. It has been that way for many years.
It’s October 7th. What’s abnormal? Slow news day?
Looks bad. Real bad.
It is global warming, see…
Man-made Global Climate change altering the color of trees!
Reports all along the northeast coast indicate that the dramatic rise in sea levels brought along by AGW as well as sudden drops in air temperature have permanently altered the landscape, turning previously green and healthy trees into flaming symbols of impending doom.
“I’ve never seen anything like this”, said former Los Angeles resident and current New Hampshire homeowner Bonnie Tyler-Patel, “It’s insane! When we first arrived in June the trees here were healthy and green and we were so happy to live in an area that hadn’t been turned into a desert by climate change. Now look at it! The trees are dying!” she wept. “Every single tree except for the Christmas type trees are all burning up and the leaves are falling off! Someone has to do something before this becomes a catastrophe.”
Scientists agree that if current trends continue there may be no more leaves left on the trees of New England by as early as November. In fact 97% of all scientists concur with the dramatic findings showing that this trend is spreading south and may soon affect areas of the Mid Atlantic as early as next week.
“If only we could impose some sort of draconian restrictions on the use of man-made devices or levy crippling taxes on those who deny what we can clearly see with our own eyes.” said Senator Maybelline Curry-Flatch of Mississippi, head of the Committee to Prevent and/or Accelerate Change. “This isn’t some made up fiction, it’s real and it’s happening all over, the forests of the northeast are positively ablaze with the riotous colors of the coming conflagration, as if we were being sent some kind of cryptic message from the gods.”
Scientists concur that the only likely outcome is a completely denuded landscape arriving no later than the Diwali/Kwanzaa season.
“We’ve got to do something, and do it now before Trump kills us all.” Said Sally Bismark-Wong, vaunted social activist and media personality. “Giving up meat, shutting down dissenting opinion and confiscating guns would be a good start before these climate deniers are able to find some way to explain this all away as some temporary situation that will fix itself in time. Like Louisa May Alcott once said, A lie will travel down the eastern seaboard before the truth can get on it’s Van’s.“
is that yours?
good either way–
how is the syrup season shaping up?
Right off the top of my head. I could work for the Babylon Bee, easy.
I hope we have a good year because we’re already starting to work on line repair and replacing tap harnesses.
regarding the bee,i believe that they do accept articles from outsiders–
i could easily envision this article in either the bee or the onion–
doubt they pay much since they’re so small but they might work a deal to advertise your website which would drive traffic to help your product sales–