(A note from MG…Allan’s blog is quite different from TBP, but he has a devoted following, most of whom are amazingly savvy and some of the most amazing links to information pop up there. Waves at Allan and his blog buddies.)
Some thoughts on how the world works…
Yes, right, a ‘click bait’ title. I wouldn’t mind if a lot of people read this post.
See, the more readers, the better chance I have of doing some good: What if I get one person to behave rationally and prepare for the catastrophe (of whatever sort) that’s coming? Wouldn’t that be great!!!
I’ve been offline for a day or so and had to do some traveling to finish my stocking up of supplies, doing one more laundry load, plus topping off my water tank (including jugs for 10 gallons extra); I now only need to make a quick post office and pharmacy run (they are in the same building here) and I’ll be secure for at least three months, should the ‘virus’ (if it is a virus) bloom stateside, which seems inevitable, if any of what they are telling us is true.
‘How I Might Have Caught The Coronavirus’ is the proper title of this post and if I did catch it, it was probably yesterday in Yuma, Arizona, which is a pretty big city, with a pretty big and busy airport.
Addendum: I just heard that the Chinese posted some new figures, the one of interest being the number of ‘confirmed cases’ from yesterday (the day I might have caught it): Around 15,000 is what I hear. A one day jump of 15,000. Dunno if it’s true, dunno if anything is true, but it might be true, or some version thereof.
Oh, and the military is preparing for a pandemic.
And the media is downplaying the danger.
See, I’m out here in the desert and rarely go where there are a lot of people. Or any people. Yesterday, though, I did some Walmart shopping in Yuma and I might have caught the virus there (assuming there is a virus, etc., but I will not keep repeating caveats). But I needed a bunch of dog food, and they were having a sale.
I saw a person at Walmart, a middle aged woman, wearing a surgical mask as she shopped; I made a mental note that she was the first…
I watched as the woman picked up some shampoo, read the label, and put it back. (I made a mental note that she wasn’t buying food; she was cart-less and looking at grooming products.) The thought occurred to me that if someone with the virus performed the same behavior within, say, the last week, her mask might have been useless; she wasn’t wearing gloves.
Let’s assume the worst, just for grins: Let’s say the rumor that the dormancy (you have it but no symptoms) period is 24 days, rather than 14, is true. Let’s say. And let’s say symptoms don’t usually occur until those approximately 24 days have passed.
Oh, and let’s say the R-0 number is 4, as has been theorized.
See where I’m going?
Yesterday at Walmart (just to start) I paid more than the usual attention in watching human behavior. I watched as people touched stuff and moved on. And yes, I watched as people kept touching their faces. I noticed how often I touch stuff and move on, and how often I touch my own face.
See, in the worst case, it’s just a matter of numbers, and where you’ve been, what you’ve touched.
If that dormancy period is the case, we could already be in the midst of a deadly pandemic here in the USA, and not even know it. We could already be in the third or fourth ‘generation’ of ‘passing,’ which would put the number of cases that will be confirmed in the thousands, right now, even if only one person was the ‘case zero’ for our country. Think about the numbers. One becomes 4 which becomes 16. That’s two ‘generations’ (there’s a word for this but I forgot what it is, and ‘generations’ sounds appropriate). If 16 give it to 16, we get 256. So the fourth generation would be just past 4,000, in cases that will soon be confirmed.
…
For the rest of the blogpost and to view Alan’s photography and videos, visit Alan’s blog at CosmicBanditos.
Oh, and don’t be afraid to ask for sources. He’s always got them.
Which Burning Platformer is going to get roasted the most if this turns out to be one big dud?
Give Alan some wiggle room, Donkey. He’s a California surfing type with lots of interesting perspective on the world.
I don’t know if you ever traveled around in a camper/rv for a while, but I have. It is a whole different world in the campgrounds.
And being able to look through Alan Weisbecker’s lens at all the madness in the desert skies and desert sands is very interesting.
But, he’s just tossing tidbits and information out for people to nibble on and respond to, if they wish.
I like his fan base. They are interesting and smart. Like people here. I only “know” a few of them and they are not TBP types, but the data set needs to “meet” in a world dictated by algorithms. Al Gore Ithms. OMG… did he really invent it?
Give us a break with the “California surfing type”. We already have to live down the other bullshit about street shitters, tent residents, illegals, commies…
The guy says he went shopping in Yuma (which is in Arizona). Couldn’t you have said, desert rat type?
C
West Yuma is Cali.
Sorry, dude, you guys are across the border on the other side of the Colorado river. Wetbacks.
Quick facts
Yuma is a city in southwest Arizona. Overlooking the Colorado River, Yuma Territorial Prison State Historic Park is home to the preserved cells and guard tower of a Wild West–era prison. Nearby, Quartermaster Depot State Historic Park was a 19th-century military warehouse and telegraph station. A 1907 steam locomotive on Pivot Point Plaza commemorates the Southern Pacific Railroad, which once ran through the city.
C
Wuzz jus trollin ya.
I’m going to tag your comment on Alan’s blog and see if he’ll come answer you.
I guess I learned my lesson about that.
I’m from fucking New York. There is very little Maggie get’s right about me, including the title to my essay. I appreciate her efforts (I think) but…. ‘go to Cosmic Banditos’ she says. How is that even close?
Allen,
In order to love Maggie you must get to know her. She’s big around these parts.
She’s mostly big in the chest area. But who’s complaining?
That’s kind of a chickenshit attitude, considering she was being complimentary and pointing people to you. Maybe I’ll pass on the privilege of ‘learning’ you better. Wouldn’t it have better served to acknowledge the shout out and correct any misinformation, without being snide and dismissive?
I regret his doing that… I really do like some of the folks who follow him. Sigh… I thought he wanted other folks to read his blog.
Oh, well. Alan Watts has a nice calming video I guess I’ll watch.
Gosh, that doesn’t say much for people from Fucking, NY.
You know I don’t really think I said where he was “from” only where he was “at.”
His movie “Water Time” is about surfing up and down the Cali coast… so, one would assume saying he is a California surfing dude is not completely wrong, as he implies.
And, I noticed the Fucking, NY too. Maybe he took offense to my comment about getting the east coast snoots together with west coast fruits and nuts to discuss the chink situation.
Do you think he wanted to make sure I know he’s a snoot, not a fruit?
I didn’t take it that way, Alan was just correcting the Cali surfer dude error. Maybe he will give us his dating site info so we can get to know him better.
Wise Dicker.
Maggie did a good job of convincing us you were a decent guy. Shame on you.
Over sensitive, thin skinned little worm aren’t you.
Seems ole Allen Weesballer is a bit sensitive, a shame really.. but understandable..
Probably is short too!
I screwed up, Allan… gimme hell.
I submitted the piece with the qualifier because it was too “clickbaitish”
But, I have the best of intentions in wanting to get your blog additional traffic as well as share some of your very interesting insight.
so, I don’t remember saying you were “from” Cali, just that you were in the desert there, taking a lot of interesting photos and putting up interesting discussions with your “research” group.
I do like your photos and your interesting approach to blogging.
M G
You do you, boo boo.
Well, after reading the nothing burger article that essentially said…nothing, I really don’t give a shit about you or what you write.
Again, Allan, I pared some stuff, but your name link works, so if people want to see some of your “real” work, not just what I brought over to post here, then they can get over there.
No harm intended. I didn’t mean to imply you were from anywhere; just that you were in the desert taking interesting photos and videos of the western skies.
Moving on in the quest to salvage a hektoprize out of the deal.
94.
Yep, the tension is beginning to stir.
I’m about to have some free time, so don’t turn that dial.
What the hell’s wrong with surfers Mr. Cow a bunga hole?
Well, on his blog he just deletes anything he doesn’t like, but that doesn’t bother me since most of the people say interesting things not requiring deletion.
I suspect a blog like this is a bit intimidating. Oh, well… I tried.
Oh, I see what happened. He got here just after you arrived to point out my faux pas. Thank you.
M G
Remember, I’m the guy standing on the street corner looking batshit crazy talking something about truth and how it doesn’t exist and sheeit. How am I supposed to know about this virus? Hardscrabble sounds the most lucid but Mygirl sure is convinced and then there’s everybody in between. These are intelligent people. Certainly more so than I.
It is crazy, isn’t it?
I think HSF is pretty much spot on… we will know very soon and in the meantime, take the best precautions you can.
The reason I like Alan’s blog is he really does provide some incredibly good links. I don’t know they are any better than any others, but I figure folks out in the desert (and I really do not know the difference in Yuma, Arizona and Yuma, elsewhere, but I know a desert full of campers when I see one.
I cannot imagine living in China. I’ve been watching a LOT of videos to get a sense of what the hell goes on behind that wall. It looks very dismal.
There was one interview with a teenage twin whose twin was adopted at 5 months (taken by the CCP) and she wondered if she would ever see her again. Then, she smiled and said she was happy her sister lived in a place where she probably got bread and milk for breakfast every day.
Then, she went back to washing clothes or whatever chore she was doing.
I wonder too. It is not impossible that it is a huge government psyops.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/geopolitics-biological-weapons-part-1-useful-and-timely-factual-overview
Mygirl linked this article in a comment… hope Admin picks it up. In any case, we should all be aware our very own government is probably involved, if it is a bioweapon.
Oh, I said California surfing type… well, a surfing type. LOL… I may get this sucker to 100 after all. It really is a disorder.
Let’s hope it is a dud but given that China is simply using the Excel goal-seek function of 2.1% death rate….we have no idea what is really happening. So let’s put some boundaries around “what is a dud”….
If the Beer-Flu kills 50,000 worldwide after infecting 2M is that a dud?
If it doubles the typical annual flu deaths in the US to say 80,000 from the usual 40k-50K is that a dud?
I would actually say yes…..sort of like a 5.1 earthquake….a little localized damage, a few days of disruption life goes on vs. say a 8.9 quake that takes down tall buildings, destroys highways, kills thousands and life does not go in in a normal for months etc.
So far this looks more like a 5.1, localized problems in China and will be the start of the worldwide/US recession but life goes on.
I’d rather have some extra cans of food and bottles of water in the house, and have it be a “dud”, than have done nothing and it turns out to be a shitshow.
just sayin’
Heard that
Would you rather be wrong and prepared or wrong and unprepared just in case it really does show up.
Donkey,
I think Prepping for this Pandemic eventually becoming a local yokel germ is a Win/Win. Just in case.
I had some Pandemic Prep and knowledge, but through this threat I probably spent $500, and increased my knowledge of Pandemic’s (from TBP posts and comments 500%). I am significantly much more ready today because of TBP posts.
Recently having been hit with the Flu on a Tuesday evening, employing all of my gathered ‘treatments’ (the prep I had sent you and Maggie) and being 99% normal by Saturday morning was gratifying. Not a bad recovery for an old guy. So all that Prep came in handy dandy…and the Flu like the Terminators (The Luciferians) ‘Will be back’.
There is also the threat of future viruses from the TLPTB (L = Luciferians) so hat tip from me to everyone who provided Intel on all aspects of this scary shit, it’s a long list.
Mark,
I agree with you. The doom is killing my vibe though.
All I need is some Mary Jane and some Fire Cider.
Donkey,
My wife goes to an off season beach gathering in South Carolina with a clique of old friends…who live all over the country…she brought back some gummies…man, we got some munchies, a good bottle of wine…some movies, and Along Came Mary…and then Marky…
Here it is live:
Here is the Bloodhound Gang doing it….
Well, I tried. I’m just wanting to thank Admin for letting me link this here because I really do think there are some interesting things going on in the Western skies and hopefully, hurt feelings over altered (qualifiers are not alterations) titlesnotwithstanding. Seriously he is absolutely right about the cosmic bandito thing, but his name takes you right to his real blog
… I’m not sure where I got it there. A lot of input from too many sources right now.
So, anyway, if you do stop by, Alan… realize I meant well. I just didn’t have time to read your whole biography. It won’t happen again.
(Thanks, Admin… some good may come of it yet.)
Let’s open it up a little: when is Trump going to get blamed for the virus?
I don’t care if you are in wally world or some other store or place of business. If you go to the restroom pay attention to how many people wash their hands. Pay attention to personal hygiene in general. You will most likely stay home because of what you see. On the reverse side, you can set yourself up by being to antiseptic as well. Long and the short of it as I see it, practice good personal hygiene, take reasonable care when out in the world at large and understand it is a crap shoot. If you don’t believe that, read history of the native American Indian. They had a tolerance for the home grown viruses but, not for the ones introduced by outsiders. They paid a heavy price.
There was also a study done in a kindergarden class room regarding how long it took one infected individual to transmit something by touch. They dyed one child’s hands with an invisible dye to see how long and if all children would become involved. Not only were the children all involved by the end of the day but the teacher and others that entered the room were too. Folks it is impossible to stop this virus from burning through the population. Some will live and some will die, pure and simple. A vaccine would support the body to survive, but it will also allow the virus to mutate because it wants to live as well. My suggestion is remember the basics, practice them, and get on with living.
Me, I ate dirt when I was a kid. Right where they loaded the horses onto the truck.
My immune system is pretty solid, these days.
And I practically never get sick, anymore. The only time I ever had the flu was when I had a flu vaccine many years ago. Never again, it almost killed me.
I have been telling people my entire adult life that I have a robust immune system due to eating dirt, grass, insects, lake water, sleeping with dogs, etc. as a child. Don’t know if it is true, but like O T said, you can be too antiseptic.
TN, exactly. We would knock off and eat chunks of salt block where the cows and horses licked, ate all kinds of weed pods in the pastures, made gum out of pine tree sap, we even used to filter the pollywogs out with a bandanna and drink from puddles. We were little wild animals. It was gloriously uninhibited.
I never ate the salt blocks.
Most of the other stuff, but no salt licks.
I tasted a few….just to see what they tasted like. Mineral blocks are much better.
Better for you too.
are you talking about the corn or mineral blocks?
mineral blocks.
Are you Haitian?
Same here! Got a flu shot while in the military and went home on a Christmas holiday pass only to spend said holiday in the hospital for 10 days. I was bad off. Nearly died and swore never to get another flu shot again as long as I lived. I managed to dodge the flu shot requirement for the rest of my term of service. It warn’t easy but I accomplished it!
None –
Also military. I puked so hard for a week that I ruptured the sphincter on top of my stomach and was puking blood. I refused the next year and it went all the way to the Captain of the base. It was quite the fiasco. I held firm and told them and him – in a respectful manner of course – to shove it square up their collectives asses. My answer to every single threat was that I they better just discharge me, because it was my body and if they pulled any of that I would just go home. At the end, the Captain screamed and hollered for awhile and then said get out, and he better never see me in front of him again. It was entered in my medical records and they never bothered me again.
Hindsight being 20/20 the Marine Corps gave me the Hong Cong flu in 69 with a shot, and I almost died while home on leave.
Now all you need is a large, cold glass of Indian cow piss.
I like the first paragraph because I read as if it is written for me, then you make it impersonal by addressing me as folks. Don’t do that. Keep writing as you have been doing for the last week or so, you have a natural style. Kudos.
Anyone who has ever sent a child to school knows that all it takes to spread a flu or cold is for those viruses to be present in one child.
If it’s here, we’ll know soon enough.
What is a tall pine going to net you in that part of the woods?
Since it’s already here, according to the CDC, it likely came by air. How many people here have flown, even a short 1hr flight and come down with a cold 1 or 2 days later. Those germ tubes are great for passing everything along as the air is recirculated.
IMHO it’s here in more force than anybody knows, or is letting on. High traffic international area’s like LA, Chitcargo, Atlanta, Charlotte, NY, betting it’s there and growing.
On the other hand I could be completely delusional and full of shit.
Just sayin
My real concern isn’t myself but my RN daughter in a small New England hospital between Boston and NYC if it really shows up.
Back in high school microbiology class, one of the toward end of semester projects was to go around the school with a swab and take a sample from different surfaces onto an auger dish and incubate. Then, isolate ONE of the things growing on the auger (a tedious process, we discovered) from one of the many growing, then identify our one isolated bacteria. We were amazed and disgusted with all the stuff present in our high school. And, this didn’t even start to touch the world of viruses out there………….
A recent study done in fast food places found the kiosk touch screen was the worse place in the restaurant next to the crapper door knob.
Think about paper money, OT…
How many times do you just put change from a twenty into your pocket and then do you always wash your hands?
I bet you do now.
MG, That is an excellent point. I remember being tongue lashed by my parents for putting change in my mouth as a kid. That was over 65 years ago. Money is worse today. Most paper money will test positive for drugs as well.
That’s one “theory” I have read how the banksters will use this to usher in the electric “coin” that they want so bad. . .
What is nearly, sorta kinda, almost most definitely cooked in are the numbers. Crunch some market numbers, add a boat load of unemployment and hypothesize deflationary circumstances into the boiling pot and what have you?
Even if you totally miss catching anything from this, you and I are very susceptible to the “Black Swan” and should prepare accordingly. Whatever that means to us personally. I am banking on it being felt.
If one person gives it to 4 and the 4 each give it to 4, why do the 16 give it to 16 each? Shouldn’t the 4th generation be 64 and the 5th generation 256?
Exponential numbering. 1, 2,4,16,256 makes more sense from an exponential standpoint.
I understand, but the progression would become almost impossible in the 6th or 7th generation, as many people do not interact with that many people in a matter of a few days. The idea of every person infecting 4 others is much more likely.
Oh absolutely. I believe it’d be exponential……but only up to a point, then things would “level off” as people attempted to isolate themselves. However, pure isolation would be impossible for the majority of folks just from a food/water perspective, so while things would level off, IMHO the infection rate would reach into the 90th+ percentile eventually. Even the “mountain man” types would have to “come to town” for supplies eventually. NOBODY can be 100% self-sufficient indefinitely.
The British Papers had the story of a Brit – presumably a white guy – living in Wuhan, who recovered from 2019-nCoV using whiskey and honey. Aside from that, I have yet to hear of a non-Asian having contracted it in any serious way. That doesn’t prove it hasn’t happened, but it raises my eyebrows. We’ve heard that one 60 year old “American” in Wuhan died from Coronavirus, but they haven’t released the name, due to “privacy” concerns. Huang? Chan? Chang? It’s like news stories where the suspect is described down to his shoe color – except his race.
I just went thru a bout of pneumonia, first time in my life, it was bad. Doc wanted to put me in the hospital because no meds were working, I refused. I am not a drinker, but I remembered a recipe my Grandpa said worked for colds. Whiskey, honey, lemon juice and ginger. I drank a half gallon of that junk in 7 days but it was the ONLY thing that kept me from coughing my guts up. Also used a hot mustard plaster.
I keep ginger ale on hand as a prep. I’ve had stomach viruses that were the sit on toilet and puke in bucket variety and ginger ale was the only thing I could keep down. Hydration is vital in these kinds of illnesses, kidney and organ failure result from dehydration. My last bout of misery where I had 104 degree fever I was drinking ginger ale and water with lemon and honey, no whiskey though.
Isk, I told you how a wise white guy gave me his cure for the flu – gin and OJ. I took it religiously and I made it. I don’t drink anymore so I will have to try garlic poultices.
White people have been infected. There is the ‘super spreader’ from Maine, a white guy who infected many and several others at a ski resort in France who are also white, seems there was a white woman too, however, none of them died from it.
If nothing else at least the first ten minutes. Sadly, I have a new term, “Reprobate Revolution.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dT3A88EIexM
When the stories first came out – especially from Chris Martenson – about nCoV, the combination of an “R naught” value of >4, transmissibility before, during and after symptoms and a mortality rate that could conceivably have been 50% (as adduced by the death-to-recovered ratio by the likes of David B Collum), the imaginable worst-case was horrific. If it had been as transmissible – to all human populations- as that worst-case implication, given air travel, it would have been raging planet-wide several weeks ago. Even now, Canada is accepting planes from China, and just taking people’s temps as they disembark. Clearly, the worst-conceivable-case hasn’t happened – and thank God for that. Transmissibility before symptoms probably is less than when symptoms exist. Non-existent hygiene in China has probably exacerbated transmission there. Sheer density of population probably has, too, and now it’s even theorized that shoddy plumbing standards in Chinese apartment buildings may be exacerbating its spread. Denninger talked about that in his most recent podcast on the subject. And the elephant in the room. No known outbreak – yet – among non-Asians.
It is a big fat What If ain’t it?
A whole new kind of ballgame.
Small amounts of “sewer gas” escape on each flush even here in the US. IF, and that’s a big IF, transmission can be carried through sewer, we’re all screwed. And that’s a big screwed.
Not me, I have a septic tank.
And an outhouse at the barn.
I had the plumber prep the barn for a toilet and sink. I put the PVC line in.
Pretty cozy barn you have.
96
University types would put it at an 80% screwed.
Well, that went well, considering. I told him I was changing the title… and I didn’t say he was from Yuma… just went to Walmart there.
Sigh… you told me a long time ago to stop being nice to people. I shoulda listened.
Maggie
You’ll pass away with lots of friends, he won’t.
What is funny is that he posted the “clickbait” How I Caught the Virus and said he hopes to help information get out there… so, I got it out here, right?
But, this post here has some pretty good comments about what different people are doing or are thinking they should do…
I appreciate Admin allowing me to post it and I did pop on over there and asked for input, but, as you see… it didn’t go very well. I think I’m banned there.
All I said was “I was really hoping some of you fruits and nuts from the west coast will think about chatting with some of the snooty people from the east coast about what’s going on in chink world.” Or something like that… lol…
Jeesh… people are so sensitive.
Maggie.
They’ll drag you down quicker than you’ll lift them up.
Good riddance.
Come on, we could drag this through the door …
95.
We are now officially a race.
100
There. Got you through the door.
You are most welcome.
i was hoping i would get the prize
Why, I thought you were the prize.
LOL… she’s a hoot. I’ve asked her to send me a picture of her and her grandson, Otto and I am going to splice it with me and my lope-eared buck Otto and the “new” litter of kits.
They survived the night. The silver rabbit isn’t completely heartless. I cut up a dishtowel and put little bunny blankies around them, but it got frigid here last night.
If I can get them through a couple more days, I think they will make it, even if she quits feeding them. If she does, I think she’s a goner… just saying.
I think I set up the notification to go to Alan and if I did? Well, then I laugh when I post here now realizing that he deletes comments that start veering off topic on his site so he is now cursing me foully for what really could have been some good publicity for his stuff.
It is just another example of how people who speak the same language do not always understand it the same way.
So, as I mentioned to Admin, his tolerance of posting my summaries of the blog is appreciated by me. I am no longer able to comment there without “moderation.”
Boo de fucking new yawk hoo.
I just dropped what I thought was a level headed response over at his place.
It awaits moderation.
Wow! Thanks for that… that “awaits moderation” thing is new for me.
I really do appreciate your making the effort. There are interesting things in the skies out west some nights and he has a really good camera and knows how to use it.
From a slightly different angle.
I visited the post. I brought it over here!
Why waste it there? I posted it one of the new virus posts