As researchers, doctors and epidemiologists spend more time studying the coronavirus under a microscope, as well as in the 100k+ infections that have yielded reams of useful data, a troubling trend has emerged: researchers have identified a “tipping point” at which the virus goes from dangerous to deadly in extremely susceptible patients.
According to research, while many patients experience nothing more than a mild cold, one in seven patients develops difficulty breathing and other “severe” complications, while 6% become critically ill and require hospitalization to stabilize their condition, risking death if they can’t receive the highest level of care.
Patients in these life-threatening situations typically suffer from respiratory and other vital system failures, according to the report by a team of WHO researchers delivered last month. Sometimes, sufferers can even experience sceptic shock.
Since roughly 10-15% of mild-to-moderate patients progress to this next severe state, it’s important for hospitals and doctors to understand which patients are at highest risk of a worsening infection so they can factor this into their risk assessments and direct resources and attention accordingly. Because of these 10-15%, 15% to 20% of that group may progress to critically severe infection stage requiring the highest level of attention and care to save a life.
Patients at highest risk include people at age 60 and older and those with pre-existing conditions such as hypertension, diabetes and cardiovascular disease.
This type of triage should at least be familiar to most doctors since it resembles the infection profile of the seasonal flu, albiet with more patients progressing to the final most critical stage, said Jeffery K. Taubenberger.
When everything goes well, white blood cells attack the virus and lock the infection down within a few days.
Infection generally starts in the nose. Once inside the body, the coronavirus invades the epithelial cells that line and protect the respiratory tract, said Taubenberger, who heads the viral pathogenesis and evolution section of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Bethesda, Maryland. If it’s contained in the upper airway, it usually results in a less severe disease.
But if the virus treks down the windpipe to the peripheral branches of the respiratory tree and lung tissue, it can trigger a more severe phase of the disease. That’s due to the pneumonia-causing damage inflicted directly by the virus plus secondary damage caused by the body’s immune response to the infection.
“Your body is immediately trying to repair the damage in the lung as soon as it’s happening,” Taubenberger said. Various white blood cells that consume pathogens and help heal damaged tissue act as first-responders. “Normally, if this goes well, you can clear up your infection in just a few days.”
But if this doesn’t happen, if the virus persists, and continues to attack the tissue of the nose and throat, at some point, it will become more difficult for the body to fight off a secondary bacterial infection. Such secondary bacterial infections are particularly dangerous because they can damage the stem cells in the lungs, basically making it impossible for a patient’s lungs to heal.
Secondary bacterial infections represent an especially pernicious threat because they can kill critical respiratory tract stem cells that enable tissue to rejuvenate. Without them, “you just can’t physically repair your lungs,” Taubenberger said. Damaged lungs can starve vital organs of oxygen, impairing the kidneys, liver, brain and heart.
“When you get a bad, overwhelming infection, everything starts to fall apart in a cascade,” said David Morens, senior scientific adviser to the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “You pass the tipping point where everything is going downhill and, at some point, you can’t get it back.”
That tipping point probably also occurs earlier in older people, as it does in experiments with older mice, said Stanley Perlman, a professor of microbiology and immunology at the University of Iowa in Iowa City, who has studied coronaviruses for 38 years.
But this isn’t the only way things can go wrong. Even healthy younger adults have succumbed to the virus, including Dr. Li Wenliang, the 34-year-old ophthalmologist who was one of the first to warn about the coronavirus in Wuhan. He died after receiving antibodies, antivirals, antibiotics, oxygen and having his blood pumped through an artificial lung. Scientists have theorized that some people have more of the distinctly shaped protein receptors in their respiratory epithelial cells that the virus targets.
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After SARS, H1N1, Ebola, Avian flu and all the other ‘pandemics’ experts said were going to end civilization, I’m not getting excited about this week’s ‘the end is near’ crisis that they’re calling the coronavirus.
I’ve seen many a Hurricane fatality say essentially the same thing. Unfortunately in this case, your decision may infect and kill others. You willing to bear that burdon?
Just Sayin’
You presume I don’t already take steps to prepare my family for an emergency and to keep us safe. Chance favours the prepared mind. If you haven’t already thought through how you’ll deal with things like weather events that could affect where you live, potential disasters at the nuclear plant down the road or a sickness running through your local community, and taken steps to prepare accordingly, when crisis hits, it’s already too late to make a good plan.
I fail to see how running around like idiots, buying up all the Purell and toilet paper at this moment will make any difference. After more than a decade at TBP, I’ve seen far too many chicken littles running around every few months screaming about the latest disaster ‘this time it’s different’. If you’ve been around long enough, you already know, it’s never different. Based on history, this latest pandemic is likely to blow over in a few months just like all the ones before it. In case it doesn’t, if you’re already prepared, there’s no need to go full Y2K madness about it just yet.
I have noticed that up here in Canada, our government continues to allow all manner of travel from known infected areas all over the world. They continue to allow thousands of new immigrants and refugees into the country every week. The government is not screening for sick people at border crossings. When anyone calls for the government to pause, slowdown or stop this travel and influx of people into the country, they are denounced by the government as racists and xenophobes. I can only conclude that either this current virus is nothing to worry about due to my government’s lack of action to address it, or that my government is actively taking steps to facilitate the infection of as many Canadians as possible. In either case, I assume my government is not looking out for my best interests. No one will look after you and family better than you will, so plan accordingly.
Sockboy said” Pandemics treat themselves” so I’m not worried…
I think Justine bought a new dress to mark the occasion of indifference.
The sky is falling over at ZH.
This guy gets it.
Trump is taking heat from the media for disputing the WHO’s 3.4% mortality rate….turns out he’s correct.
For some odd reason the CDC must give a US doctor permission to test for Covid or they can’t test, so is it the flu or Covid-19?
They don’t know, but they know the death rate?
From Medical News Today:
“It is surprisingly difficult to calculate the ‘case fatality ratio,’ or death rate, during an epidemic,” says John Edmunds, a professor in the Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine in the United Kingdom.
This difficulty is due to the long period between the onset of the illness and the fatality, explains Prof. Edmunds.
For COVID-19, this length of time is 2–3 weeks or more, he says. Therefore, to calculate the case fatality rate, we should use the number of confirmed cases from a few weeks ago, rather than at the present time.
Experts define the case fatality rate as “the ratio of deaths occurring from a particular cause to the total number of cases due to the same cause.”
But, continues Prof. Edmunds, in the case of a “rapidly expanding epidemic,” the number of cases from a few weeks ago will always be much smaller than the current one, so “the true case fatality ratio will be higher.”
On the other hand, another bias evens the scale in the opposite direction.
“We do not report all the cases,” says Prof. Edmunds. “In fact, we only usually report a small proportion of them. If there are many more cases in reality, then the case fatality ratio will be lower.”
In conclusion, estimating the true case fatality ratio is “tricky,” says the researcher.
“What you can safely say […] is that if you divide the number of reported deaths by the number of reported cases [to get the case fatality ratio], you will almost certainly get the wrong answer.”
– Prof. John Edmunds
Why 3.4% is likely an overestimate
Dr. Toni Ho, a consultant in infectious diseases at the Medical Research Council (MRC)–University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, U.K., echoes similar sentiments.
She goes on to suggest that the figure of 3.4% is likely an exaggeration, mainly due to the challenges of calculating mortality rates outlined above.
“The quoted mortality rate of 3.4% is taken from confirmed deaths over total reported cases. This is likely an overestimate, as a number of countries, such as the United States (112 confirmed, 10 deaths) and Iran (2,336 cases, 77 deaths), have had limited testing. Hence, few of the mild cases have been picked up, and [the total number of cases] we are observing is the tip of the iceberg.”
In fact, the overestimation could be 10 times higher than the reality, notes Mark Woolhouse, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, U.K.
“If a significant number of mild cases have been missed or not reported, then this [3.4%] estimate is too high.”
Freudian slip?
lol classic
This is from an article posted by Flea on another thread I read late last night. I sent this to all my family and friends. It is worded for them. I have have passed many TBP threads to them, and some are starting to lurk.
Great find Flea!
Here is the good news on how to easily and inexpensively defend against the virus:
“Now, in all of these dark clouds, there is a bit of silver lining so far. First of all, the fatality rates in non-Asian countries has actually been substantially lower than in China. From this paper, it has been determined that those ACE2 receptors that the coronavirus attach to, are far more prevalent in Asian people than in whites or blacks- about 5x more. This might account for the mortality rate for Asians being approximately 5x higher than non-Asians. An outstanding analysis of this has been done in this Zerohedge.com summary. Bottom line, if your heritage doesn’t include China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Vietnam or the Korean peninsula, your chances of getting through this virus unscathed are pretty strong.
So, in an ironic twist fit only for a B-movie, the Frankenstein virus they’ve created may well destroy them instead of their Western enemies.
I find it fitting.
An option to help yourself with the virus: Another aspect of this type of viral transmission is that there are certain people who just don’t seem to be affected by viruses of this type. THIS ARTICLE explain that “The only people that can be infected by the 2019-n Coronavirus have less than 98.7 µg/L of Selenium in plasma or serum. Those who have enough Selenium are immune to this and all other enveloped viruses. Selenium can be obtained from Brazil nuts, Selenium pills or Astragalus tea.
I would strongly suggest you go read this for yourself (and all the linked documentation), and go further to perform a Google search for “coronavirus” and “selenium.” You’ll be amazed at the amount of documentation that comes up…all confirming the original point. As always, YMMV, but we have to look at practical solutions to get through this first element of the virus.”
200 FOODS HIGHEST IN SELENIUM
https://tools.myfooddata.com/nutrient-ranking-tool.php?nutrient=Selenium&foodgroup=All&sortby=Highest&servsize=Common&list=Simple
Here is the entire link Flea sent out: Dig into this story and read all the links, and you will have insights that you will never, ever see on the media.
The first I saw that link, it was Swimologist who posted it? In any event, I was thinking about writing a 3rd COVID-19 article; if you can believe that. But this one would be less dismissive and skeptical and, in turn, offering more practical steps and considerations (Not sure if, or when, or at all, at this point, however).
Regardless, when sorting through the selenium information I found the following maps interesting.
NOTES: The first map was from 1-28-2020 – so way outdated but you get the idea. And, I was not able to vet the 2nd map as actually representative of selenium deficiencies in soil as claimed.(and some experts claim the deficiency of selenium may NOT be the dominant cause in Kashin–Beck disease (KBD))
Map of coronavirus deaths in China:
Maps of selenium deficient soil in China:
Swim posted it on this thread from Sunday 3-8-2020:
Uncola.
Something to consider regarding the maps. Even in areas of sufficient selenium in the soil it may be blocked from uptake by plants due to Agrifarming methods the take the life out of the soil. Overuse of nitrogen for one. Gmo’s might be another source of deficiency but i’m just thinking out loud on that one. If the things I’ve read about China’s farming methods are reasonably accurate then the map wouldn’t reflect actual uptake. They also consume large quantities of our very own deficient grains and soybeans and the livestock it’s fed to.
It appears Brazil Nuts are grown in Guianas, Venezuela, Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia. And, as of this writing, there has only been 1 reported death in South America and that was in Argentina.
Doug.
I used to love those things as a kid. Nobody else in the family wanted to spend the time getting them out of the shell.
Same here, Flea…dad did the shelling……he called ’em “niggertoes”
Somewhere I came across the info about the Chinese brawd and N.C…..was it from JC onabike? I don’t remember, but nothing about the cells coming from us military….
From the article (part II of the Blunt Truth is a good read as well)
Dr. Shi Zhengli
So this lady was paid well by the US government AND the Chinese government to fund “research into coronaviruses.”
What did we (and China) get for our money spent? In the original paper published in 2015, they stated
“Using the SARS-CoV reverse genetics system2, we generated and characterized a chimeric virus expressing the spike of bat coronavirus SHC014 in a mouse-adapted SARS-CoV backbone. The results indicate that group 2b viruses encoding the SHC014 spike in a wild-type backbone can efficiently use multiple orthologs of the SARS receptor human angiotensin converting enzyme II (ACE2), replicate efficiently in primary human airway cells and achieve in vitro titers equivalent to epidemic strains of SARS-CoV. Additionally, in vivo experiments demonstrate replication of the chimeric virus in mouse lung with notable pathogenesis. Evaluation of available SARS-based immune-therapeutic and prophylactic modalities revealed poor efficacy; both monoclonal antibody and vaccine approaches failed to neutralize and protect from infection with CoVs using the novel spike protein.”
annuit coeptis novus ordo selcorum <<—-==
I still say they're all working for TLPTB
Ordo.
In the link I saw it was created in Ft. Detrick Md. and then given to UNC then sold to China.
Flea…
Did the link you read include the name of Dr. Shi Zhengli ?
Mark.
My reply must have gone to spam. I was replying to swimmer regarding this article. He asked me what I thought of it and I told him I was still working on it due to the length.