Guest Post by Martin Armstrong
Coronaviruses are common in different animals. However, rarely does an animal with coronavirus infect humans. It certainly seems possible by eating animals that might carry such a virus. As of Mar. 10, 2020, 4,087 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19. However, 64,385 people have recovered from the illness. So it is not such a justified health issue to be causing such a panic. That does make it seem that there is something else behind it.
There are many different kinds of coronaviruses. Most seem to cause colds or other mild respiratory (nose, throat, lung) illnesses. There have been far more deadly versions such as the coronaviruses that are known as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). Cyclically, it is very curious that SARS took place two 8.6-year cyclical intervals previously — 17 years ago. Some people say this version must be serious because China has cracked down really hard. However, at the time of SARS, the Chinese government was highly criticized for not addressing the issue. This time around, it seems the response is in relation to the criticism they got with SARS rather than a reflection of its deadly nature.
Coronaviruses are named because they appear different under the microscope. Coronaviruses look like they are covered with pointed structures that surround them like a corona or crown. Therefore, it appears differently which is why it is called a coronavirus.
If we look at the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak, it was first discovered in Asia in February 2003. The outbreak lasted approximately six months as the disease spread to more than two dozen countries in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia before it was stopped in July 2003. Therefore, if the timeline holds for most viruses, it should peak out in April/May. Perhaps the last case may be June/July.
There is NO INDICATION that this will last longer than any other virus issue. For now, it will probably continue to expand into April/May before we see any top in the number of cases.
When we look at MERS-CoV, it was during September 2012, when WHO has been notified of 2494 laboratory-confirmed cases of infection with MERS-CoV in the Middle East. The fatality rate was 34.4%. MERS-CoV appears to have come from an animal source in the Arabian Peninsula. Researchers have found MERS-CoV in camels from several countries. Studies have shown that direct contact with camels is a risk factor for human infection with MERS-CoV. In this incident, MERS was first identified in September 2012 and had subsided by June 2013. There was a second outbreak in 2015 in South Korea. The first patient of the outbreak developed symptoms on May 11, 2015. WHO and the South Korean government estimated that the outbreak ended in July 2015, after about two months. By the end, there were 186 confirmed cases and 38 deaths.
Therefore, despite all the doom and gloom and the level of outright panic, we should see this subside probably no later than July 2020. It clearly spreads easier than SARS or MERS, but it is about on par with the version of influenza that mutates each year.
We may see this reappear again in the next flu season of 2021/2022. If it mutates like influenza for each season, then it can perhaps become more deadly at that period in time. Therefore, SARS came 17.2 years ago and MERS 8.6 years ago. Cyclically, there may be a resurgence in two years which would be in 2022.
As far as governments are concerned, the press seems to have turned this into a real panic.
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From armstrongeconomics.com:
“About Us
Armstrong Economics offers unique perspective intended to educate the general public and organizations on the underlying trends within the global economic and political environment. Our mission is to research historical cyclical patterns and market behavior in timing, price and crisis to better understand and identify potential future trends, using an extensive monetary database and advanced proprietary models.”
Mr. Armstrong is no doubt a very smart guy. But, isn’t this discussion about viruses out of his lane?
I don’t talk to my plumber for recommendations concerning my prostrate, even though my plumber is a very smart guy and has had prostrate issues.
This isn’t an appeal to authority, but rather an appeal for relevant experience, at least a vitae that includes some biology, hopefully virology.
The ‘net, sigh.
Before somebody says it…(and sorry, I don’t have a TLDR version for meatheads)
This is NOT the flu:
– Influenza has an Infection rate with an R0 of about 1.3-1.5. (One person can infect one other person and a bit to spare.) The coronavirus has an R0 of about 3-times that…at minimum.
– Asymptomatic transmission. An infected person can be spreading the bug all the while they feel fine. Totally unlike flu.
– Flu bugs are from the Orthomyxidae, a totally different family. A really big way they are different is that one only goes 1-4 days from being infected to showing symptoms. COVID-19 is apparently capable of going up to 24-27 days before the infected feels ill.
– The overall case mortality rate is (only an estimate at this point) perhaps as high as 2-3.5% but let’s say that it is only 1%. Well, influenza is more like 0.1-0.2% depending upon the outbreak. Admittedly, COVID’s rate is not uniform for all ages. It leaves the young (<16 y/a) alone. It starts killing at meaningful rates for the “60’s decade” and increases rapidly for each decade after. (More on this later.)
– Higher risk of mortality is accompanied a period of hospitalization. So far, that is what accounting for an approximately 15-20% rate of reported cases going to hospital.
You put all that together and you have a complete pisser of a clinical picture:
1. No effective screening technique. (Because “spreaders” can be asymptomatic for a long time.)
2. You are perhaps three weeks behind the curve between when the virus first came into your community and when you can test with reasonable certainty after observing symptoms.
3. Corona viruses mutate pretty rapidly so unless your screening kit has taken that into account then you are going to see a lot of false negatives. And thus you are even further behind the curve.
4. And the unknowing infected have been shedding virus the whole time. (It is possible to shed non-infective “virus“, I suppose. Current testing methodology tests at a level of nucleic acid “reading” as opposed to infective particles, so one cannot be completely sure that infective viruses are actually present. The experience in S. Korea suggests that perhaps this is the case. A big chunk of asymptomatic people who tested positive have not developed illness at all. There are alternate hypotheses for these results which I think were around 40% of the tested population.)
5. Back in the day I had to help faculty with “contact tracing” and number crunching for food-poisoning breakouts, STD epidemics, and flu epidemics. (Grad school is the last bastion of slave-labor in the US…and the faculty wondered why I stopped at a Masters. Idiots.)
a. Contact tracing was a complete PITA for bugs that went symptomatic in less than 5 days. Most people cannot remember what they had for breakfast, lunch, or dinner two days before. So…a lot of contacts got missed. Having to establish a movement and contact trace over three weeks? From somebody popping a high fever? (“Bye, boys! Have fun storming the castle!”)
Look, you could not ask for a better bug to crush healthcare and diminish the ranks of elderly.
The risk is NOT that you are going to die from this bug.
The risk is that it swamps the doctors/nurses/hospitals.
The “experts” tell us that 70% of the population will get COVID-19. Okay, I remember they’re from “Hahvahd” and so impeccable. Now, let’s drill down on the USA situation….
We shall begin with limiting factors…If people need hospital beds, how many are there? By which I mean what is available to park your debilitated carcass in should events overtake you…
As of this date, best data suggests the following limiting factors:
Total Hospital beds in USA: ~ 980,000
ICU beds in USA: ~ 95,000
Bio-Containment beds in USA: < 18 (yep, you are reading that right – 18 tops)
So, if the experts are correct AND (one can only hope) the infections cases are spread evenly over the next year…and this is on a daily basis for the USA….
We will focus on the “over 60’ group. That is a population of around 50 million.
So, if “experts” are correct the 70% infection rate yields a population of 35 million who are “at risk”.
Now let us say that that 10% of those folks need hospitalization at the lowest level of care and a tenth again requiring an ICU level of attention…
On a daily rate, assuming that the fever accumulates in an even fashion, which is unlikely, (totals divided by 365), that mean, on a daily basis:
96,000 patients competing for about 2,700 beds for the lowest standard level of typical nursing care.
9,600 severely-impaired patients competing for 260 ICU beds.
And, I cannot get good data on Bennett /Bird/other respirators available for patient breathing support so that’s a wild card. Though, I seem to remember a 4-hour turn between one patient and the next for a given respirator (Bennet) unit. (Sanitation, repairs, etc.) Less than 1 operable respirator per bed and somebody is screwed…end of story.
Oh, and you know what? Those hospital beds are not just sitting there waiting for your debilitated ass to show up. They are pretty much full most of the time.
Not everybody is gonna die. There's the good news.
The bad news? There are two parts…..
1) Folks over 60 have increased risk which goes up with age rather quickly and pre-existing medical conditions are force-multipliers in the favor of the virus. AND, if one gets sick once the healthcare system is swamped then they are probably toast. The care-allocation process is called “triage” and it really does not care who you are…the closer you are to your "Sell By" date, the more likely you get thrown under the bus.
2) If healthcare staff get taken offline (already happening), the effective bed count is reduced because there is nobody to cover it for care. Soooo, the ordinary allocation of beds to people who need non-elective surgery, chemo, dialysis, a baby delivered, or recovery from an ER event is GONE. That is going to leave a mark on the young'uns.
At current growth rates of reported infections in the USA, EVERY bed in the USA hospital system is spoken for by late April. And that assumes just a 20% hospitalization rate across the entire population AND healthy staffing for care…the latter which is becoming unlikely. (You have already seen above the more restrictive 10% case for 60 yoa and older.)
Da P
Nicely summarized.
It sounds as though you have relevant experience, as the points you have made I have heard from pathologists and research biologists.
Thanks, Joe.
Yeah, back when the earth was cooling, spent five years on nursing staff in a teaching hospital in Chi-town area of 900 beds. I was a “float” for most of my time. That means I reported to the Nursing Office of the hospital at the beginning of each shift to find out where I was “required”. (That is code for for having to go where bodily fluids were escaping to a floor drain instead of staying where they belonged.)
Somewhere in there, I got stuck on the hospital’s Infection Committee to monitor handwashing procedure and general sanitation in all units.
Then, three years graduate work and teaching in “micro-beasties” and public health on the “hard-science level” of bacteriology, virology and mycology.
Da P
Excellent!! Thanks for your valuable insights.
Best Luck
Joe
Let’s say that’s true, then you have a much bigger problem lurking in the shadows.
Farmers and ranchers- you know, the people who produce all the food?- they are 1.3% of the population but they feed 100% of everyone who eats.
Guess what the average age of a farmer is?
58
Six months from now there might be a lot of hungry people wondering where all the bacon and bread went.
What if this time, it really is NOT different after all?
The ground here is so saturated you just go squish squish squish.
In the Bootheel there will be almost no corn, only mutant catfish.
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fgene.2019.00794/full
Since stumbling onto JC, I’ve discovered and learned more about original research. Enough to mangle Surfer Dude’s intro, but we all have our moments of missed marks. (See what I did there?)
After that nonsense last year, my son suggested I find a decent place to blog.
But, I had grown accustomed to the place and like that proverbial tree standing by the water? I ain’t moving.
And, let’s all face it, there isn’t really a decent place for truth and falsehood to grapple. It gets ugly every time.
Sometimes they have to do it on an open field that gets wet and goes squish. Then, the grapplers get dirty, some stained beyond cleansing, but at the end of the battle, we know that the truth will out.
https://english.stackexchange.com/questions/430204/why-do-people-say-truth-will-out
But I also heard what the President said tonight and agree. It is time to stop the nonsense before the nonsense stops us. Because I think we all prefer our opinions and feelings bruised and battered in a muddy grappling than our blood treasure spent in internal upheaval and civil war.
There are some Millennials who know what they are doing. We need to talk to them, don’t you think? But, that’s from my perspective and how I perceive the situation based on the information and experience I bring to the table. Your perspective is different and how you perceive the situation is based on the information and experience you bring to the table.
I think those of us who think we can make a difference somehow should try. I think we all need people who can still look at a baby with a penis and call it a boy.
Because Science. Because the words really do matter. They are just an arrangement of letters forced to line up against their will and they are doing the best they can to convey some meaning. If you don’t obey the rules of contextual decency, meaning keep the trash talk to Friday Fail and don’t splatter nastiness where nastiness doesn’t deserve splattering, then you aren’t allowing a fair field.
But words do have meaning until they are not allowed to have meaning.
Here is my question:
This time is different? Really? What happens if this time, I mean, just hypothetical and all, but what if this time, it really is NOT different after all?
Easy…we’re fooked.
Many moons ago I read Barbara Tuchman’s ‘A Distant Mirror ‘which was a chronicle of the Thirteen and Fourteenth centuries and all the grief that befell those living in that time period. Foremost in the misery causation file was the Black Plague….and preceding that catastrophe was yet another equally destructive event:the Little Ice Age and the crop shortages and starvation. I see a few parallels…
“The book’s focus is the Crisis of the Late Middle Ages suffered by Europe in the 14th century. Drawing heavily on Froissart’s Chronicles, Tuchman recounts the Hundred Years’ War, the Black Plague, the Papal Schism, pillaging mercenaries, anti-Semitism, popular revolts including the Jacquerie in France, the liberation of Switzerland, the Battle of the Golden Spurs, and peasant uprisings. She also discusses the advance of the Islamic Ottoman Empire into Europe, ending in the disastrous Battle of Nicopolis. Yet Tuchman’s scope is not limited to political and religious events. She begins with a discussion of the Little Ice Age, a change in climate that reduced the average temperature of Europe until the 18th century, and describes the lives of all social classes, from nobility and clergy to the peasantry.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Distant_Mirror
HSF –
I am keenly aware of this fact, for years now, and it bugs me to no end.
Da P
I online shop Walmart for dog food, kitty litter, etc. I also bulk buy food stuffs like rice and flour and canned good thru their internet site. I have been watching as the ‘out of stock’ signs are cropping up all over rice, canned goods and other items like canned cat and dog food.
Today, for the first time, there was a Corona Virus notice stating Walmart’s new policies as a result of the virus. Lots of stuff is no longer available online, no bulk buys, etc.
As to farmers, they had best be prepared to be overrun if this shit REALLY hits the fan. Hopefully they are stocking up on feed and fodder.
In my little neck of the woods some calves have been killed and butchered in the field, and not because of food shortages mind you. Imagine a lot of ranchers and farmers will be bringing in their animals if they can.
It’s not quite that bad or is it?
I grew up in farming and been around the corn belt and the wheat belt. I don’t eat any of that stuff.
But we might experience the consequences of centralizing everything. Most veggies etc. eaten in the US are raised in California. Just read the labels in the grocery store.
I place like Iowa, with prime farm land, imports 80% of the food, which people in Iowa eat.
I told my wife I would not be going to the Dr. or the hospital if I got the symptoms. At my age, they would tell me to take 2 aspirin and call tomorrow, if you are still alive.
A hospital is no place to try and get well.
no shit…..
TN Patriot, agreed the last place you want to go it the hospital unless you start having extreme distress. I’d recommend people stock up (if you still can) on ZMA, Vitamin C, Vitamin D, and colloidal silver. All good immune boosters and the last is a natural broad spectrum antibiotic.
Just Sayin’.
OK, OK Perf; you’ve made your points convincingly.
Not enough beds to go around. It is going to suck if one gets more than moderately sick.
The Nancy Pelosi & Chuck Schumer rumoured response to this pandemic: enemas for everyone. No lube either.
In other words, the pension funds are saved!
puh! in your dreams… sarcasm, not aimed at you
Da P: Thank you for that summation. Italy has had 196 people die from the virus within the last 24 hours. The hospitals are overrun and collapsing from the patient load not to mention the medical personnel themselves being infected.
The entire country is in quarantine, shades of China, and all businesses except for food suppliers and emergency providers like drug stores.
The situation is so bad that one Italian doctor compared the numbers of sick to a war zone….
“the director of intensive care at Sacco di Milano hospital stating that the amount of patients his hospital has been receiving on a daily basis are like numbers “of war.”
And now we get word that Tom Hanks and his wife are infected and quarantined in Australia. Trump has closed all airfare coming in from Europe….way too late but…oh well.
Here’s the deal…the ONLY way to stem a highly contagious disease is through isolation and quarantine. Until all movement is brought to a standstill for at least a month or more this thing will spread…oh, and for those who still think that only old people get it? There’s an infected toddler in San Antonio.
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/11/italy-196-people-die-of-coronavirus-in-24-hours/
How can you quarantine an entire country?
It isn’t so hard if 90% are not breathing.
Can you list source for the toddler infection? The link listed does not talk about it nor do any of the local San Antonio news organizations.
We seldom hear figures for how many have gotten over the virus. Too many details are being kept “secret” by TPTB.
TNP –
It is impossible to prove a negative.
Reference to hospitalizations and deaths, which are verifiable at some level, is the better way to look at data.
Da P
They are giving us figures on how many diagnosed, but we never hear how many have recovered. The article mentions just shy of 65,000 recoveries and is the first I have seen of that number. Of course, thins number does not include people who may have contracted the disease and were not tested/confirmed.
And one should certainly assume that in the beginning, ONLY those who were in horrible shape were tested, while hundreds if not thousands went completely untested and likely got better. Count only the very sick, many of whom likely died, and your percentages are certainly NOT going to be an accurate reflection of the truth.
With apologies to Disraeli (also attributed to others), There are 3 kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and GOVERNMENT statistics.
There are numbers for recovered, however the problem seems to be that ‘recovered’ is relative. There are those who have been released and five days later drop dead in the street, others who continue to shed virus after supposed recovery.
There is another horror with this virus, it attacks the internal organs and in many cases it wreaks havoc on the heart, lungs and kidneys along with the central nervous system. You may survive but be severely debilitated…additionally, if a survivor is reinfected their prognosis is nil.
Please remember that this is a bio-engineered virus, a bio-weapon, man made in a bio level four lab. Also please remember that those labs require a Racal suit, ordinary PPE isn’t very helpful.
tnp,
there is a site that i have posted a link to twice in the last week & it shows up in the comments but immediately disappears so here it is unlinked–
worldometers .info / coronavirus
key it in w/no spaces & hopefully it will work 4 you–i keep it in it’s own window & just refresh it a couple of x/day–
what is being kept secret is the ethnicity of those who have bad cases of this vs those who get over it,especially in n.america–
are the deaths in wash. state mostly orientals or are they just elderly/weak whites?
ditto 4 the death rate in italy & iran,and are their strains the same as in china?
Interesting point. A few years back, after testing positive for a genetic issue that can be fatal (not at all related to the virus) I dug and dug to learn more about demographic/racial data for who has the bad gene. Finally I came on to a WHO document that gave me just what I wanted. Going from memory, caucasians with Northern European roots had the highest incidence, @ 5-10%. Japanese @ 0%. East Asians (a pretty diverse crowd)-something higher than 0%. Africans @2%; African-Americans at 4-5%.
I think the fact that I had so much difficulty locating the information I wanted is somehow related to your comment about the secret of the ethnicity of corona sufferers. Maybe those in the know don’t want those of us who don’t know to stay that way.
Let me tell an abbreviated story. The Central Banks have extracted about 98% of the value of the dollar over the ladt century. The end of the dollar is before them. It’s the end of the runway. Conveniently, a suspicious virus is released that causes a global panic; markets crash. Central Banks issue unbelievable amounts of debt as they become the lender of last resort. They end up owning the world because nobody can repay the gargantuan debt, just as they have previously done to countries like Greece and others The cryptos have been completely beta tested for years via Bitcoin and FedCoin is finally ready for roll out.
The Central Banks own the massive debt of the entire world, therefore the assets of the entire world. Mission accomplished. They own the world. Checkmate. It was a brilliant 100 year plan.
Bummer, huh.
Just ask Boeing: they are about to borrow down to their last dime on Friday, assuming the banking syndicate behind their line of credit doesn’t back out of forking over something like $13.6 billion.
Maybe a Chinese aircraft manufacturer will become #2 in the world fairly soon. Small world, isn’t it?
All true but they have to collect; will a majority of their Minions in the Deep State, Police, Military etc be Judas Goats and Kopo?
No… actually it was the Fed all along.
The Fed was a trap from Day 1 and the Republicans have been stalking the Democrats since 1910 and 1871 before that.
Why do you think they sent pallets full of $100 bills with serial numbers to suspect countries?
Because it’s better to be an American in America if the music stops.
(~2 minute clip from a blockbuster flick about a decade ago):
“ONE TOUCH -TRANSMISSION” “The average person touches their face 2 to 3 times every waking minute –in between we’re touching doorknobs, water fountains, and eachother.” “So we have a virus with no treatment protocol and no vaccine at this time…” “ONE INSTANT -INFECTION” “ONE CONTACT -CONTAGION” “Is there any way someone could weaponize (this virus)?” [Alternative Media figure says:] “On day one there were 2 people, and then 4, and then 16… in 3 months it’s a billion –that’s where we’re heading!” “They’re calling out the National Guard, they’re moving the President undergound –people will panic! It will TIP OVER.” “Don’t talk to anyone, don’t touch anyone –stay away from other people!”
I think there’s a cyclical aspect to what we’ve been pre-programmed with. Here’s a scene (only for mature viewers) from a movie from 2.5 decades ago:
Yeah, as if ANYBODY would believe a negro and a Jew have ANYBODY’S best interests in mind.
I might suggest this video for your consideration:
You don’t need to watch more than the first two or three minutes.
Be well. It will be a wonderful summer when you are proven right, and if so I’ll happily have a beer in your honor.
Until sometime in summer when this “blows over” the 1st minute o’the following will be the directive (listen to 1st min.)
NBA just suspended the rest of the season and NCAA just announced there will be no fans allowed at the conference tourneys.
Will there be anybody watching from home?
J.C. I really get a lot out of your bike blogs. You have an amazing facility with these very complex topics.
Thanks for your work. Your bike rides do scare the shit out of me at times, e.g. that bus!
Joe
Let me add that downvotes mean nothing. If you really screw up with some questionable info, we have people here who will gang up on you and straighten you right out. Beat downs are a rite of passage, I only know of one red rope who skated in with a, shall we say, pussy pass? Whatever it was, she is the only one who escaped the hazing. It’s not my place to say it but once you earn your stripes, somebody will say – Welcome to Fantasy Island (or something like that).
https://1drv.ms/u/s!Au4riy5TDB7CgbQHg-_A8Ljv8wxjCw
Not to be a wet blanket, but…
Given that I’m 73, I give some thought to my inevitable death, though when it will arrive is an unknown as of today. Nevertheless, I recently read a book I highly recommend: The Way We Die Now by Seamus O’Mahony, an Irish doctor. It’s a sobering read, one that made me decide it was time to write out some instructions for family and the attorney in the event that my death is not sudden. Here’s a review from The Doctor’s Bookshelf:
Should the pandemic worsen considerably, doctors and patients both might derive considerable value from this book.
Great article. Thank you. Puts things a bit more into perspective.