Why lockdown everything?
“Two fundamental strategies are possible:
(a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and
(b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major challenges.
We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half.
However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.” – Imperial College, London – COVID-19 Response Analysis pdf {emphasis mine. -A.}
RTWT.
It’s 20 pages long.
This was probably a lot of the basis for the EU suddenly going full BFYTW yesterday.
TL;DR?
Suppression (i.e. societal lockdown) : need for it could last for 18-24 months, until an effective vaccine is found. No guarantee that will happen by then, either.
Mitigation: (small-scale quarantines): won’t work, and disease will blossom the minute you relax from suppression to mitigation.
Secondarily, all ICU beds are overwhelmed no matter what we do by May 1st, and from then until July 1st, medically, this is going to be a living hell.
(I love my job, I love my job, I love my job…O, hell!)
Prognosis:
Now see if you can suss out, all by yourself, why TPTB have been slow-rolling this thing out in bite-sized chunks, over the last 5-15 days (besides myopia when confronted by abnormal situations).
If this harshes your mellow, and offends your delicate feeeeeewings, take heart:
these are just doctors doing policy research that informs world leaders.
They could all be a bunch of pointy-headed idjits, all completely wrong.
Tomorrow, magical faeries riding enchanted unicorns could swoop down over the earth, pooping healing pellets of strawberry scented pixie dust, which cures cancer, wipes out Kung Flu, ends acid reflux, gastric reflux, toenail fungus, and the heartbreak of psoriasis. And your Panda Express fortune cookie fortune may have the winning numbers for Powerball, and the direct cell phone number of the Playmate of the Year.
So do whatever seems right to you.
And let us know how that usually works out for you and yours.
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Maybe we should go to the Doc and say we have Malaria and see what’s up with quinine? The problem for the establishment is that if it works it is very inexpensive and has no side effects.
In the meantime, a bunch of monos del portico with pounds of crack and meth had a shoot’em up on the po’ side of town AGAIN last night. So, we see life goes on.
Could it be time for a gin and tonic?
I stocked up on cheap vodka because it works when the isopropyl runs out and can be used to anesthetize if need be.
Cheap vodka is cheaper than higher quality isopropyl and has dual purpose. Also, the plastic is a higher grade for other storage later.
It is time here for a Crown Royal and if Admin still has his bottle I sent him, I suggest a toast.
Someone else got the Cinnamon Tequila. It is what tipped me they were scanning for cash. I got the tipoff and Admin got the insurance money. Win-win.
i always preferred Bacardi 151 for rapid anesthetization
No one’s ever heard of 5% diluted hydrogen peroxide? Unfortunately, it’s doesn’t have a secondary use for getting three sheets to the wind.
It’s a hell of a lot less expensive than buying retail vodka and you can still mix it in with liquid antibacterial soap. I use it for minor cuts, scrapes, cat scratches, and it even reduces allergic skin reactions if pollen or plant proteins are involved. It oxidizes proteins and reduces to water and oxygen compounds, totally non-allergenic and safe.
For cleaning and sanitizing stainless steel or house hold dishes I keep One Step and Star San around. One Step is a cleanser with – you guessed it – hydrogen peroxide.
No, you damned sots … you can’t drink it, either.
Hmm, Crown is my preferred as well.
For alcohol to work as a disinfectant it has to be 62%. Vodka is only 40. Should have bought the good stuff.
I need to pick up a handle of cheap vodka tomorrow in my last run to town.
I prefer small batch bourbon and I should have enough to last me 6 months or so.
and you thought the cops coming for your stash would be bad….
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/weird-news/coronavirus-elephants-break-farm-self-21719583
Drunk elephants would be pretty scary.
Immediate trillions to Bankers, Airlines, Hotels, etc but nothing to Farmers and Ranchers to help produce the food we know will be in short supply; wonder why. The Chinese have the good sense to make Agriculture the number one priority now. Shouldn’t the FSA be put to work (on farms run by the Army because we don’t want them; but there are many suddenly unemployed that would be good workers). Do New Yorkers ever wonder about where the food in stores comes from?
it comes out of boxes from costco silly
Of course not. Then again, New Yorkers won’t have a solution that doesn’t involve fraud, embezzlement, and counterfeiting, either.
“Do New Yorkers ever wonder about where the food in stores comes from?”
Wait until they try fractional reserve food markets.
“Do New Yorkers ever wonder about where the food in stores comes from?”
Fresh Direct.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FreshDirect
EC- Have you noticed how many politicians and celebrities have tested positive for Covid19? Macron’s wife, even the wife of Louisville’s Mayor and then there is Tom Hanks/Rita Wilson,Rachael Matthews/Frozen2 actress, Kevin Durant, Idris Elba, Kristover Hivju, Indira Varma, Olga Kurylenko, Sophie Trudeau, Prince Albert II of Monaco, Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Francis Suarez (Mayor of Miami, FL) and on, and on.
And I don’t know even one person or relative of any person who has this disease, strange huh?
Money talks. Your friends, relatives, and neighbors didn’t have enough money or power to “persuade” the medical industry to test them last week when the recommendation was to only test people directly connected. That’s still the “rule” but since there are more test available they’re testing more people who have the requisite symptoms (ignoring the fact that many people get the virus but not the symptoms) but don’t have any direct connection, resulting in an uptick of cases of unknown origin. Multiple somebodies that you know already have the virus, they just don’t know it and aren’t “important” enough to test.
https://mobile.twitter.com/pseudo_qnome/status/1239919907581628416?fbclid=IwAR1dCp8ucsyhl_ImHV8pVJxaXfOxncus9gUBGd1ZTyD95tr-F4BPHOSJUBY
Maybe T4C can enlighten us, I have no idea. Seriously.
Sounds like a lot of wishful thinking. NOTHING will happen to anyone involved with Russiagate, Clinton e-mails, Epstein and Hollywierd pedophilia.
BTW Not only did Epstein not kill himself, he is still alive and living the good life in his homeland.
John Galt put it out on another thread…I have no idea…too busy getting ready.
Evidently, nobody you know has enough money to skip to the front of the line. When I look at the JHU.edu map, it appears to be hitting the dem strongholds the hardest.
Yup. Did anyone notice how many ended up in hospital? Then again, I don’t know who 90% of these people are and if they dropped dead I’d never notice.
Why lockdown everything?
Not shut down at my place and the best part is since the schools are all closed, the low IQ sickly parents can and do bring their children.
YES WERE FUCKED!!!!!!!!!!!
Oh, it gets better…
Lock-down for us plus lock-out for us.
You aren’t surprised, are you?
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rp_umWoSZj4&w=400&h=225%5D
COG doesn’t mean a rip if your “defense” is on offense OCONUS, your infrastructure is an absolute mess, you lose the world’s reserve currency, people are starving, and you’ve pissed off the entire world.
They won’t be continuing diddly or poo within the next 10 years. Don’t be shocked if Putin ultimately ends up the ally of the American citizenry in a freaky twist of fate at some point.
I agree with that AOC,
The USG has put itself in a very precarious situation and shouts with acclaim and bravado of its superiority. However, there is and old joke that tells of a flea crawling up an elephant’s ass with rape on its mind.
The good (if you can even call it that) twist on the whole thing is that both Crime Families (Trump/Hillary, Republican/Democrat) are busy with the infighting. Let them continue with their petty distractions. Elimination of either of them is a win for those of us who still need time to prepare, and whichever side wins will have a Pyrrhic victory at best.
Vlad Putin is less of a threat to American citizens than greedy Democrats or Republicans.
The longer the government insists on curtailing the liberties of normal Americans with a concocted flu “emergency” the more pissed off the citizenry will become. Temporary bribes of helicopter money won’t cover mortgages, lost jobs, or car payments.
Bushmills for anesthesia for sure, or at least Glenlivet. There’s enough alcohol in many of the cheap, grocery store colognes to be labeled “flammable”…I’m betting they’d serve as backup hand sanitizers, although I’m sure I wouldn’t put them on an open wound.