S3: Shit Mardi Gras.
Worse than a Shit Show (S1).
Worse than a Shit Circus (S2).
Better than a Shit Riot (S4).
1) On March 17th, we had 4000 confirmed cases. Today, April 4th, it’s at over 300,000 confirmed cases.
We have more than that; you know it, I know it, Yellow Dog knows it. But that means, minimum, this is doubling every three days, and has done so six times in the last nineteen days.
That’s eight million cases by the 19th of April, give or take.
And spotting this the low end of only a 1% CFR, that’s 80,000 dead in two more weeks, which surpasses any flu season, and is 4 times worse than the average one.
In perspective, it’s nearly a year’s worth of U.S. combat deaths from WWII, in just 2 more weeks, if it rolls out that way. It may be better or worse, but it’s sure as hell not anywhere close to good yet.
So, can we please finally STFU about how this is “just the flu”, and how “the cure is worse than the disease”, when opening the floodgates takes the spread of this to Mars, on a rocket ship?
It’s doubling every three days now, not just because of testing, but because it can, and this is with most of the country on at least voluntary stay-at-home, to restrain the spread (which is working, when dumbasses actually do it).
You can think happy thoughts when cases and deaths (over 1100 since yesterday) peak, and come down the other side of the roller coaster. Not before.
2) We’ve covered this material, multiple times, but probably in a response in comments, or on another forum, so once and for all here, a reminder about ventilators and such.
Nurses don’t run ventilators.
Respiratory therapists do that.
It takes 2 years to train one, and another year of OJT to get them good at it.
Each RT can manage 4 vents, if you want it done right.
If you don’t care about killing people, maybe you can surge that, short-term, to 6 or 8@.
And that’s it.
A vent can deliver 100% fiO2, at pressures you need to understand to do properly.
It’s known as PEEP. A good setting for a vented ICU patient with Kung Flu is as high as 25.
Average for normal times and cases is much lower, but that’s what happens with Kung Flu pneumonia: it requires more force to pop the alveoli open when they’re filling with fluid and mucus. Think lungs full of goop, like blowing up a balloon partly full of Elmer’s Glue, and you’re on the right track.
You can’t get to this level of O2 concentration with an oxygen concentrator, and you can’t get that level of forced pressure from a C-Pap machine.
Period.
Can. Not. Be. Done.
You’re trying to fly to Mars in a hot air balloon.
So just no, for all related questions of “Can I do_______?”
And if somebody, anybody, thinks we’re good if we just crank out 100,000 or 1,000,000 ventilators, because “‘Murica!”, then please, tell me how you plan to squat, grunt, and shit out the 25,000 to 250,000 trained respiratory therapists you’ll need to run that many vents, which you don’t have now just sitting around playing cards and waiting to come to your Pandemic Party in ICU or the ER.
And BTW, the Nawlins ER Doc who wrote this clinical missive (which is probably dead-on balls accurate – it’s an industry term) notes that Kung Flu patients on ventilators die at rates between 70% (Seattle) and 86% (worldwide average), to date.
So anyone bad enough off to need to go on a ventilator with this (which means they’re also sedated, and in ICU, as either a 1:1 – one nurse:one patient – or 1:2 patient), has between 1 chance in 3, and 1 chance in 7, of surviving to recover and go home. The other 2 out of 3 or 6 out of 7 will simply die, between Day 11 and Day 21 of intubation. Sometimes, even quicker. (Our patient last week lasted 48 whole hours, and coded multiple times before the MDs called it off for good.)
So I repeat, for emphasis:
Stay your happy ass at home, and DON’T catch this.
Somewhere between 97 and 99% of you will probably recover just fine. But 1-3% of you, and not all of them “old” by any standard, are going to die in a coma, isolated, with a plastic tube down your throat, and breathing mucus while you drown in your own body fluids.
If you don’t have it now, and don’t catch it, you don’t have to see about finding that out firsthand, even at 1 chance in 33 or so.
Go back and read this morning’s post, and see what you need to be working on. Worrying about this won’t fix it. Just know it’s still craptastic. Now go get on with your life, such as it may be, and do constructive things with your time.
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Raconteur. Until you show me the bodies, PISS OFF.
Chicken Little wrote the same type of shit for the Ebola scare. I figured he would have learned the first time.
Yawn, another Micehal Synder in training I see.
Somebody please sound General Quarters when we have 5% mortality across the poulation at large.
Then we can get excited.
Not much to see here, please enjoy your civil disobedience and go about stocking up and stacking deep.
Just be happy 300000 people have been tested.
Didn’t know we had 300000 test kits.
Interesting everyone tested was positive.
Or was it 600000 were tested, to be on the safe side
the 50% false positive rate was factored in
allowing for the 300000 number.
This should be called the Liberty Virus.
Well, I’m sure he knows everything there is to know about it, but here’s a little different story via Bob Wenzel’s Target Liberty site.
Also, and rebuts a major premise of his story– all ER doctors and nurses are trained/skilled in intubating a patient (air line down the throat into the branch at the brachii )..also, ventilators are computerized now– it takes a minute to set parameters and then it runs. An alarm will sound with varying pressure or volume changes so it is not much more labor demanding than setting someone up on an EEG machine.
This guy can Fuck Off. Have two close friends that support IT systems in Seattle hospitals. NO INCREASE, even slower than normal. FUCK YOU. Contacted ex-wife, the respiratory therapist. SAME.
“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.” – Benjamin Disraeli (also attributed to others).
When the tests are untrustworthy, when the guidance already shows that Covid-19 is being noted as “cause of death” even if it is not, when the numerator cannot be trusted, when the denominator cannot be trusted, and when the government can NEVER BE TRUSTED……its all just bullshit in support of an agenda that is becoming clearer by the day.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/nyregion/coronavirus-rikers-nyc-jail.html
Anyone care to do the math on this one?
167 inmates and 137 staff members with Corona Virus on 3/30.
It’s been six days.
If it doubles every three days in the wide open world, wouldn’t we expect it might double every three days in a closed petri dish of a jail? I thought it would serve as a fair measure of just how virulent this epidemic might be when I mentioned this last week.
Let’s look at the numbers today.
It should be- at minimum if the projections of the CDC are correct- 668 inmates and 548 staff as of 4/4/20
But it it’s only 231 and 223. And zero deaths.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/04/rikers-coronavirus-cases-increase.html
So it’s not only not doubling every three days, it isn’t even increasing by 50% every six days.
Which is really odd because according to the article the rate of spread inside Rikers is 8 times as high as the general public.
“For the people in Rikers, the virus appears to be spreading cataclysmically, in a population that’s particularly vulnerable to its effects. (One estimate puts the infection rate at four percent, compared with 0.51 percent in New York City overall.) ”
Will someone with a degree please check my math?
Somebody has been reading a lot of MSM.
You ever watch those shows about the guys who go shrimping in the Gulf of Mexico? They put out these enormous nets and catch all kinds of things. When they dump it on the deck they sort through it and keep what’s valuable and dump the rest overboard.
I’m a human shrimp net.
Point is if you don’t keep track of their lies, how can you possibly know where to look for the truth?
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/harvey-weinstein-tests-positive-coronavirus-prison-69749470
and then….
https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/04/02/spokesman-says-harvey-weinstein-never-tested-positive-for-coronavirus/
If the media ever gets something right, you’ll let me know, right?
No, it was Jeffrey Epstein that tested positive….right before he didn’t kill himself.
3 weeks ago, don’t wear masks….yesterday, everyone wear masks.
If the CDC ever gets something right, you’ll let me know too, right?
The Raconteur Report:
Ha!
He must have tested positive for the Freedom & Liberty virus…if he is laying on a frag with the pin out all he has to do is get up a little bit higher and then lunge down…followed of course by Duck & Cover!
“And spotting this the low end of only a 1% CFR, that’s 80,000 dead in two more weeks, which surpasses any flu season, and is 4 times worse than the average one.”
So why hasn’t China been wiped out by now?
Not saying this isn’t serious, but think it’s going to be used to try and setup Trump.
Pardon me not having much trust.
Who says China has not been wiped out? You trust their numbers?
No one knows how deadly this shit is yet. Until they start testing for antibodies across wide samples, to determine what percentage of the population has caught this shit, we will not know how many have caught it, nor what the true mortality rate is.
The only way to guess mortality rate today, is to look back 2 weeks at the number who caught on that day, and divide the number of deaths today by that number. And that percentage is fucking huge.
But of course that assumes they know exactly how many cases there are, which they do not, probably by a factor of ten.
However, when the numbers start to drop, like they seem to be in Oz, they do seem to be able to determine the number of cases a lot more accurately via trace and test. Oz seems to be losing around 5 people a day, and two weeks ago they were reporting around 80 cases a day. So a mortality rate of 2.5%.
The countries testing the most, with a declining number of cases, will pretty soon give a good indication of the mortality rate.
Good to see you, LLPOH. I appreciate the focus on the numbers, good logic associated with them as well.
One bitty question, from your eagle’s point of view, distance and time, what do you see different in TBP; quality of discussions, civility, information, etc?
EC – You noticed the difference, too? I cannot put my finger on it, but TBP does not seem the same as it was a few months ago. Maybe it’s the lock-down from the kung flu?
The only difference I see is not so much shit flinging. Maybe that’s because Stucky and LLpoh and a few others are not commenting as much? They’re our shit-slinging heroes.
An uptick in new posters as well as spergs.
And a lot of really funny responses. Tragedy brings out the comedy.
Hardscabble, without the comedy, we’d all cry.
By the way, what’s a sperg?
Aspergers
Thanks, EC.
EC – without Stuck, Admin, me posting regularly, the site is far less incendiary. The caliber of the comments seems generally down – I have seen some absolutely moronic displays of non-logic. Some of the math being displayed at times is cretinist. My post above has three down votes, so far. But I did not say a damn thing other than what is factually true. No hyperbole, and no opinion. Just the base facts, and highlighted that we do not as yet know the real facts until and if they can test for antibodies across a wide sample of the population. And yet people down vote that. That shows they have zero math skills and no ability to reason whatsoever.
People are more interested in the funny stuff nkit puts up – valuable, yes, but never was the core of this place. Very few folks look at the comments with a critical eye, and instead applaud every “the damn politicians/CEOs/ etc should be hung”comment, and rarely does anyone acknowledge that the lack of personal responsibility is what got us into this mess. And that the elites only were able to do what they did due to the aid they received from the masses.
I will try to post more. We need a bit more fire and brimstone, and a lot less of folks letting stupid slide.
I really appreciate what you do here, EC. And HSF, and Flea, and Admin. We just need a good jolt every so often.
Can somebody please buy Stucky a laptop so he can comment and submit articles instead of relying on his closed-down library? Why he hasn’t bought one, I don’t know.
HSF, tell Stucky to buy a damn laptop!
Llpoh, I hope you can comment more. You’re criticism is much needed.
The big problem with that math is they are only testing those who present themselves for testing, not the people who got sick and it was mild, not the ones who had an immune system that checked it, nor those who got really sick but thought it was just a bad flu. Those numbers could dwarf the numbers of people tested and likely do as this has been getting on jumbo jets and flying all over the planet for four or five months, so the mortality rate could be anything.
What I want to know and what they will never release is how many of those people had one foot in the grave or were already years beyond the average life expectancy for their race, sex and nationality.
It’s a corona virus, perhaps more virulent, perhaps less than the ones that affect all of humanity, every year for as long as we have existed.
I hesitate to point this next part out, but what is life if of the survival of the fittest? Has it ever been otherwise? and when did the expectation of a lifetime without death ever become a basis for operating a functioning society?
The final truth is that no one will ever know the truth, but we will see what is important and what is dross when the dust settles and it isn’t trillions of dollars in funny money or deformed authorities with their amputated wieners telling every healthy individual to go to their room or face imprisonment while child rapists are turned out onto the street. A lot of eyes have been opened by this virus and that’s one symptom you won’t hear about in the MSM.
Bill Sardi has written several dozen great articles on LewRockwell.com. Here is just one (of many) that points to exactly what you are talking about. Indeed, the REAL truth about all of these patients is being kept from us because it would undermine their desperate need to collapse the economy and lock us all up while waiting for Bill Gates and his magical vaccine.
Dr. Bill Sardi is one of my heroes. He helps keep me sane during this craziness.
The Bionic Mosquito also set on Lew Rockwell:
“There’s a difference between dying of Coronavirus than with Coronavirus.”
I have sent praises to Lew, a friend of mine, for posting the Sardi articles. They are full of common-sense. I’ve also asked Lew to write more articles himself because he also pinpoints what’s going on and how to rationally address things.
But number of dead STILL says NOTHING about how deadly it will be in a country that is not third world, polluted, and filled with latent TB. And yet this insanity IS based on a belief that all nations and ALL HUMANS are the same. Western medicine knows NOTHING about health, or why some get sick and some don’t. Nobody is checking vit D, C, zinc, or any other nutritional markers in anyone. Hell, they can barely get a Covid-19 test done. And yet we continue to provide government violence-based protection to this cartel of “medical professionals” whose actions can be measured as the third leading cause of death in the US in any given year.
Llpoh.
I don’t know what’s happening in Oz or China but here in the states we have empty hospitals and nurse and DR. layoffs and only NY is claiming to have maxed out morgues. No reports of overworked grave diggers protesting forced 80 hour workweeks. Apple just blew the cover story about ventilator operator shortages a few comments down from here. Our own Mary C has a nurse daughter near Kansas City who says they have no business. You go with math and I’ go with visible proof of bodies piling up if someone can produce real pictures.
Meanwhile, Mnuchin says Oil Services will qualify for bailouts.
AND they are coordinating efforts to drive up the price of oil (and be default, gasoline) so these fuckers can still reap profits. It is the SAME SHIT they did during the first Depression – artificially elevating prices so nobody faces the “devastation” of deflation….you know, because people without a job most DEFINITELY don’t want LOWER PRICES…..LOL. Next they will be dumping milk and destroying food to keep prices high…..oh wait…already saw a story like that.
Mr. L.
Yup. And the beat goes on.
http://www.genius.com/sonny-and-cher-the-beat-goes-on
The more things change the more they stay the same.
Sorry, but according to an article I read earlier, they’re already dumping milk.
Right. Three days ago I saw an article about Florida farmers dumping produce due to the lockdown.
That was my “oh, already saw a story like that”….just couldn’t remember what the product was. Milk dumping has a long history from a price-boosting perspective. When the gubmint’ won’t buy the cheese, they dump the milk instead.
Cousin josh runs an entire florida ventilator ward himself. 20 beds. 20 vents. Aaaand only two fucking patients so lets quit freaking the fuck out over this. Wear a fucking mask. Wash your hands. Carry the fuck on.
CDC stats for total deaths in the USA from week four thru week 12:
2020 4 56666
2020 5 55849
2020 6 55992
2020 7 54246
2020 8 53745
2020 9 53382
2020 10 51978
2020 11 47655
2020 12 40002
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
Scroll down to the Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) Mortality Surveillance chart & click ‘View Chart Data’. It downloads a lovely spreadsheet that you can use to do the math yourself.
Cheers!
Test run version 1.0
They are only going to get worse
Fearmonger much? It’s a strain of the damn flu. The sooner people are exposed to it, the better off we’ll all be. You want to do this shit again next season? Bill Gates wants you to because he’ll make a killing. No doubt Dr. Fauci is invested with his new money-making schemes. Trump is being duped by the medical mal-practitioners.
There is something disturbing about Fauci’s latent smirk, he appears to work hard at keeping a straight face. Old Bush had that same smirk, HF posted a recent pic of Bush painting an impressionist version of deformed Nazi flags.
That was good.
I almost miss that dry drunk.
“So, can we please finally about how this is ‘just the flu’, and how ‘the cure is worse than the disease’”
(shrug) where I live and work we send dozens of people all across the united states and back every week. we should be inundated, but we’re not. we a handful of cases.
it’s just a bad flu. the reaction is going to be worse than the disease.
It already is… and they are just getting started. Social conditioning of the sheep to accept government mandates and relieve us of our liberties. It is truly astounding to watch the effectiveness of the propaganda and censorship. Still think this is a dry run and there will be something worse around the corner. The environment has had it’s ways of culling people since the beginning of the human race. It’s tragic to lose an elderly relative or immune compromised loved one, but you know what, they are going to die anyway sometime. I smoked for 25 years, so I probably have some lung issues. If I die I die. I will live in the house of my Lord for eternity.
My wife looked at me this morning and said to me “At least we got to experience freedom and liberty for the most part in our lifetimes” . My kids, not so much. Maybe after the end of this 4T, they will be smart enough and strong enough and study early American history enough to rebuild. Pray for the strength of our children.
CO2.
I agree this is just the warm up for the Big Kahuna Burger.
“Still think this is a dry run”
nah. it was just happenstance, they rode the wave, hey this is working great …. lenin said, “probe with bayonettes. where you find steel, withdraw. where you find mush, continue.” and that’s what they’re doing.
“Pray for the strength of our children.”
dunno, seems like we should pray for grace/righteousness – can’t really figure out which – and go from there.
After all the stupid articles here about how its just the flu. One that makes some sense. I’ve had the flu and it sucked enough, but I don’t remember anyone needed a machine to keep them alive when they had it.
I guess its all BS when its someone else is dying. And I’m not all freaked out about it, just stating facts.
It’s not the flu that’s killing people. It’s the pneumonia they get, which is usual in the flu season for those vulnerable.
We’re all dying, that’s how life works.
People die every day from untold numbers of causes, we’ve never tanked the global economy and turned the Earth’s population into prisoners because of it, have we?
Just stating facts.
“Just stating facts”
when I do that people get mad.
In every audience there’s always one person who’d sit there with their arms crossed and sour look on their face while everyone else was enjoying the show. For years it used to bother me, but eventually I stopped worrying about it, but I always wondered, why buy the ticket?
Maybe you came to the wrong saloon.
HSF, that person was probably a miserable transgender feminist Democrat.
(upvoted you) well I always default to assuming people mean what they say, so I’m always taken by surprise when they don’t. I think the subject matter at hand is serious, and thus pursue it as such – but usually it seems people’s primary goal no matter the putative topic is 1) themselves and 2) entertainment. so yeah, you’re almost right – it’s not that I’m in the wrong saloon, rather it’s not a saloon at all.
Whimsy is not your strong suit.
I think- perhaps mistakenly in your case- that it’s best to lean into levity whenever possible in the midst of anxiety. Let’s call it an old habit.
Saloon just means the place where you hang out. Not a literal saloon. It kills the joke when you have to break it down like that, but the situation calls for clarity.
oh good grief, I know it’s not a literal saloon. but I thought y’all hung out here to discuss the issues. you don’t. y’all come here to hold forth – deadly serious about yourselves, but the rest of it might as well be entertainment.
eh, yeah, you’re right, I’m in the wrong place. I’ll back off.
We don’t believe it’s entertainment. It’s deadly serious. But it’s not deadly serious in the way you’re making it out to be. We know what the hell is going on. And it’s not a virus.
(looking at the downvotes) see what I mean?
The problem is, gman, you’re taking this virus too seriously. Don’t believe what you’re hearing from the MSM. There is an agenda behind this.
Stick around, gman.
I’ll probably post once in a while.
The elites: Ha Ha, we just stole 2 trillion out of their pockets and they just squabble about how they want to go back to work.
The people: baa baa (it’s not that bad, let me go back to work)
Just read a piece claiming the Wuhan death toll was actually 12.7 time higher than that reported by the Red Chinese. If true, that skews our projections off the charts, sorry to say.
And have a look at this little gem:
https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-closing-of-21-million-cell-phone-accounts-in-china-may-suggest-a-high-ccp-virus-death-toll_3281291.html
Do the Chinese get free cell phones? Maybe being under lock down for two months required budgetary cutbacks and phones weren’t as important as, say food.
Governments LIE. THAT is all they do when they are not MURDERING and STEALING. No reason to believe ANYONE. And what if the death toll is 12.7 times higher in a TB-filled, pollution-filled, disease-ridden shithole like Wuhan and its surrounds? The death toll is still out of 1.2 BILLION people, and in no way reflects how bad things will be in a first world nation with good sanitation, much cleaner air, far lower smoking rates, far better nutrition (for most, not all), and much more.
Westy.
Do you know how old that story is? It was recently updated to show that only 3 or the 21 million owners died of Covid-19.
The epic times is just the Q-anon annex.
That doesn’t indicate death. It may indicate no money left.
The President of the St. Louis Fed is sugjesting a daily Covid-19 test and a badge to show you are safe.
BEAM ME UP SCOTTY.
Bill Gates ideas hitting the Fed, in other words.
“THE SKY IS FALLING, THE SKY IS FALLING !!!!”
anyone who wants to stay at home has always been free to do so. leave the rest of us out of it.
Lets even take a public vote on it so we have everyone on the record with his choice, and then lets have everyone stick to his choice. you choose quarantine? excellent. You are now restricted to your house. If we see you out on the street it’s jail time for you. Job done. if you still get sick because something blew in the window on a breeze, well shit, that kinda makes your quarantine idea look dumb, doesnt it? Everyone who wants to feel ‘safe’ in quarantine is now effectively isolated and wont encounter any of the rest of us. You choose freedom? don’t ask for any handouts or free medical ‘care’ if you do get sick, but probably if you choose freedom you want to have as little as possible to do with the medical industry as possible anyway.
Everyone gets what he wants this way, but there ought to be NO hiding about it. When this all blows over, either it will have been a big nothing burger or , maybe if its as these lying pieces of shit claim, it’s the second black plague.. In either case, we will know who was full of shit. When this craze blows over though, all those fucks who ratted out their neighbors or went postal on someone about ‘social distance’ is going to be at the very least a pariah and i wouldnt be surprised if some vigilante action sponaneously emerged to enforce some new ‘social distancing’ of the virus cultists from the rest of humanity.
It’s just the flu.