Guest Post by Pat Buchanan
Trump can make the case that while China was the origin of the Wuhan virus that killed scores of thousands of Americans, it was Donald J. Trump who led us through the tragedy, and he is leading us forward, once again, to a new prosperity. What will be Joe Biden’s argument to lead America, after having sat out the worst crisis since World War II in his basement?
After Pearl Harbor, FDR declared that his role of “Dr. New Deal” had been superseded, replaced by his new role, “Dr. Win the War.”
Tuesday, President Donald Trump signaled that, in the war on the coronavirus pandemic, he, too, is executing a strategic pivot.
Where the medical crisis had been the central front, pulling the U.S. economy out of its coma is now his principal objective.
Trump is not unaware of the consequences of this decision.
“Will some people be affected badly? Yes,” said the president, “but we have to get our country open and we have to get it open soon.”
“Tremendous progress” has been made in dealing with the medical crisis, Vice President Mike Pence told reporters Tuesday, adding that the White House task force he chairs could be phased out in June.
Wednesday, Trump reversed that. From the public reaction, by popular demand, said Trump, the task force, whose primary medical voices are Drs. Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx, will continue.
As the U.S. death toll from COVID-19 is now 74,000 and still rising at a rate of 2,000 a day, what is behind Trump’s strategic pivot?
First, there is not a great deal more the White House can do to slow the inexorable momentum of the disease itself.
“Social distancing” and “sheltering” have been in place for weeks. So, too, are the programs for producing masks, gowns, gloves, tests and ventilators. Trump cannot create any more from a White House podium.
Invariably, while there, he is baited and thrown on the defensive by a hostile press demanding he explain why he did not act sooner.
The White House briefings on the medical crisis have reached a point of diminishing returns. These invariably return to statically grim news — the new hospitalizations, the latest death toll, the “hot spots” where the coronavirus has flared up and is now raging.
The medical crisis is essentially out of the president’s control; its future will be largely dictated by the coronavirus pandemic itself.
Moreover, the economy is familiar and friendly terrain for Trump. There, he has a three-year record of undeniable success. In this crisis, the president can decide, lead, act and produce visible results.
And in moving from the medical crisis to the economic crisis, Trump has weapons to wield like the veto power to shape policy and directives to issue from the Executive Branch.
With this pivot, Trump is wagering his presidency on a belief that, by mid-June, the first large wave of deaths from the pandemic will have passed, the numbers will be diminishing, and almost all of America will be ready to get back to work.
Trump is betting that it does not matter if the country does not agree with him to open up today. By July, the country will agree.
By summer’s end, he sees himself as having led us through the medical crisis that is then receding, and up and out of a Second Depression. That will be his best argument for reelection.
If this scenario unfolds, Trump can make the case that while China was the origin of the Wuhan virus that killed scores of thousands of Americans, it was Donald J. Trump who led us through the tragedy, and he is leading us forward, once again, to a new prosperity.
What will be Joe Biden’s argument to lead America, after having sat out the worst crisis since World War II in his basement?
A majority of Americans are today wary of unlocking the economy and opening up the nation. Yet, each week, more and more people are demanding that it be done. And each week, more and more governors, reflecting the views of their constituents, are moving up the dates for partial reopenings.
By midsummer, the country will have caught up with Trump. That is the idea that animates the pivot.
And it is not a bad wager. Does anyone believe it will be possible to keep hundreds of millions of Americans in their homes in June, July and August?
Wholesale civil disobedience may face governors still conducting a strict lockdown in July.
Europe is already ahead of us. Italy, which has now been passed by Britain as the nation in Europe with the most deaths, is already starting to open. So, too, is Germany, the largest European nation with the fewest deaths. And Austria is ahead of both.
Trump’s strategic pivot puts Biden in a box.
The mainstream media and left-wing of his Democratic Party want the governors to keep the states locked down as the only way to avert a second wave of infections. And they may be right.
But however many victims succumb to this pandemic, it is going to end, and America is going to be reopened. The closer we are to both goals by Nov. 3, the better Donald J. Trump’s chances of retaking the oath on Jan. 20, 2021.
That’s the way Trump is betting.
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he has a three-year record of undeniable success
Trump has a 3 year record of riding the momentum and latency in the economy. That momentum just petered out.
Now he can show what kind of genius he is by ramping up the economy which he has no real control over. If it gets better, he’ll get undeserved credit. If it gets worse, he’ll get undeserved disdain. He’s as useless to the economy as a bicycle is to a fish but because he holds some bullshit office, he’s ‘the man’.
Captain Obvious: Here are choices: Trump or Biden. And if Biden drops dead, Andrew “Legbreaker” Cuomo. Or perhaps you prefer gap-toothed Stacy? Sorry to be th eone to inform you but life is full of lesser evil choices.
You’re attitude and willingness to go along with the process of electing the next dictator actor is the real problem in the country. The scum in office are there because you put them there by voting in an obviously corrupt system.
It doesn’t matter who gets elected as the policies don’t change. Have the continuous wars since Vietnam been ended with the orange savior? Has Guantanamo been closed? Has the CIA, FBI, etc been disbanded? Does the dollar buy at least as much today as it did 20 years ago? Has the standard of living increased in the last several decades or have the corporatocracy off shored all the jobs leaving the euphemism of a ‘consumer economy’ behind? BTW – there’s no such thing as a ‘consumer economy’. Has Hilary seen the inside of a courtroom? Have the finance wizards that crashed the economy last time been jailed or have they been rewarded by bailouts so they can do it again?
Why don’t you wake the fuck up. Stop contributing to the problem by legitimizing the utterly corrupt Fed Gov by voting for either asshat.
I realized I can’t change the system because of low IQ individuals like you but I’m certainly not going to help it survive, and that’s a large part of the reason I left the US.
You sure talk a lot for a fcking refugee who voted with his feet.
The fall out from this will take 24+ months to rear it’s ugly head fully. By that I mean the wave of first commercial foreclosures, then residential.
Commercial was already hanging by a thread, with brick-and-mortar stores shuttering and the bankruptcy filings of JC Penney, Forever 21, and J.Crew looming. Macy’s isn’t doing much better, and KMart gasped it’s last. Sears is going to go poof too.
This will leave huge “anchor” stores empty in malls that are already struggling to fill spaces.
Then the secondary effect of “telecommuting” through this crisis will emerge. My son works for a company that provides “help desk” services for companies. He has not stopped working through this but of course is now 100% work from home. Guess what? He is planning a move to TX next year and his employer said “keep your job when you go, why not?”
Thousands of companies now realize all that expensive office space is a waste of money. Meaning they WILL NOT BE GOING BACK. Disney has already said they are slashing their office space use significantly.
This will in turn spark defaults in the office space sector. These buildings rely on janitorial and maintenance staff. These people will be laid off never to return. Any secondary businesses in them, like small restaurants, nail salons, hairdressers, will see their foot traffic business dry up and they will leave too.
Commercial lending has been propped up for a long time on low interest rates and crazy loose terms. Borrowers have just been recycling their debt every 2 years, many on interest only notes.
Then we move to the residential foreclosures. When people do go back to work (if they do), they will now be, most likely, 4-6 months on payments of their mortgage. Their lender gives them a forebearance and tacks it on the end. Ok. But what about the water, sewer, and taxes? Insurance? If you don’t keep up on your homeowner’s and the bank finds out, they can and will foreclose on you in most cases.
And condos…are people keeping up on their HOA fees? HOA’s are in first position and can foreclose for back fees. This is extremely problematic for associations that are small and depend on the steady flow of monthly fees to pay THEIR master insurance and maintenance. Larger complexes typically have a reserve, but this will go bye-bye fairly quickly. If some of these units are rentals and the tenants are not paying rent, it is unlikely the owner will pay HOA. Good luck evicting the tenants through all of this. In some complexes the tenant ratio is very high, 50% or MORE.
Then we have the multi family sector, which has been also massively overpriced and propped up by historically sky-high rents, that people are not paying. Please understand that tenants in these places tend to be service industry workers. Hotels, bars, restaurants. The places that are closed, many are gone forever. And when we do open, it will be with restricted customers anyway, further limiting tips for these employees. Many will just stay on unemployment and ride that out to the end because it’s more money. And not pay their rent out of either, sometimes even if they can.
Lenders just recently tightened up their lending criteria. Credit scores must now be 700 minimum for FHA (previously 650), with higher deposits required.
It is a good bet that credit scores have already tanked because people are not paying their credit card bills or car payments. So a huge sector of the market will be gone in a instant.
Cars. Ah yes…good bye 72 month loans with no money down. And so used car prices will jump significantly, meaning most people will have to buy cheap clunkers that they cycle out of every 1-2 years rather than fix.
What people don’t realize is we are just overpriced for everything in this country. Housing, rents, cars, food. The downward pressure of things to cost less will eventually happen, it’s just going to meet resistance and take longer.
It is a fact of life that when demand goes down, prices go down.
If we bring back manufacturing, it can never be like it was in the 70-80’s. Plush union jobs with high wages and fat benefit packages. It’s going to be a decent, living wage, with probably some kind of employee retirement participation plan and medical, and that’s it. People will choose to take non-union jobs that actually PAY over zero work but marching in a picket line. The cost of these goods will go down due to less demand and less cost to make them here over time.
Making 15 bucks an hour to work in fast food will be considered a joke, as now these companies see robot order takers and less in-dining demand will mean smaller store footprints, meaning less humans to clean the tables, mop the floors, and take out the trash. I seriously would not be surprised to see McDonalds no bigger than a kiosk where your food is just passed out a sliding drawer at the drive through.
Movie theaters are already on the way out too. Home viewing choices continue to rise, and the virus lockdowns has seen “first run” features being offered at home for $19 bucks for the whole family. That’s a bargain in comparison to 15 or more a person. This will start happening more and more, with promotion being more event oriented rather than opening-night oriented. The days of the mega-plex are over. I think they will pivot to a smaller, more luxury themed type of theater with food and alcohol package plan type experience.
The very good thing that may come out of this? People are already getting outside more, which will hopefully lead to more actual activities with friends and family
All of this bullshittery and assholery manipulation will mean people will realize that online platforms can be used for a lot of evil. And govern themselves accordingly. Change will happen, it will just take time.
Excellent overview!
Let me add that the US Dollar is circling the bowl. Right now and for the immediate future, the bullshit dollar will be stronger than other bullshit currencies. Ultimately foreigners will ditch the dollar due to the threat of sanctions and simply because all the things you listed are going to happen almost everywhere – meaning demand for dollars will decrease over time.
Those dollars that have been sequestered in foreign banks will find their way back to the US – meaning more dollars chasing fewer goods. That’s the definition of price inflation with the Fed adding fuel to the fire by insanely issuing more dollars which is the definition of monetary inflation.
One doesn’t have to be clairvoyant to predict hyperinflation is already baked in the cake. It’s just a matter of time.
The virus was and is a political football and was meant as such. We can’t believe a single number coming from the government or the medical community as the government has produced incentives to list deaths as being relate to cov2 no matter what.
Whatever the GOP is paying Pat, it’s not worth it.
The GOP does not pay Pat, one of the very few men of principle in the country. Unlike a legion of disgruntled morons out there, he understands that Trump -with all his many faults – is the only thing standing between us and a Schiff/Pelosi/Nadler/Schumer/AOC/Abrams/Omar/Cuomo/DeBlasio future. Trump’s effort to clean up the FBI, DOJ, and CIA alone entitles him to re-election. Care to take a chance on the others, tough guy? See you in the Gulag.
Trump has done jack shit to drain the swamp, in fact he keeps hiring the worst swamp critters for key positions. Prove me wrong.
” he understands that Trump -with all his many faults “-there is another notable who understands Trump: Victor Davis Hanson. See his recent book “The Case for Trump”-no bs, no cheerleading, just plain facts and reasoned opinions. The most informative book on the man in a couple of years.
Pat, you know perfectly well the Democrats do not care how many Americans die. They want to maintain the lockdown to harm Trump. Case closed.
In my opinion the lockdowns are all about the money. A second wave of re-infection is more or less justification for extending the economic burdens on the unemployed the government intentionally put out of work. Citizens are being leveraged and held hostage for Federal aid.
Democrats openly admit the situation benefits them. I say to hell with them, no bailouts
Indeed SS, I can say he is a good man from personal experience. He’s cut from a different time, where biting words were more eloquent. I do not think we will be returning to that time until after couple of generations of political warfare. We’re in the War Hawk/1812 stage, where Henry Clay still had memories of the Revolution. This time, Gen X is still familiar with 9/11 and TARP.
Pat’s time will come again when my children reach midlife. I credit him with the beginning of my personal political growth.
Poor Pat. some people walk around the house and get lost in closets during their moments of Alzheimer’s, Pat types.
Would you prefer Jimmy, Slick, W, or obozzo as more enlightened players?
The answer is right below. You’ve been played if you think we’d be any worse or better off regardless of who is appointed. Do you know how old that nonthinking retort is.
The Donnie Cog-dis on this site is growing in spite of all his broken promises to us and his kept promises to Israel.
The march toward Feudalism will continue with or without Donnie, Nancy, Schumer, or Hillary.
All of them are just bench players for the Billings Mt. team in the Pioneer B League.
We would already have had a revolution if Hillary had won. Trump was brought in as Oxy for the right until they were in a position to declare martial law which only Donnie could have gotten away with. No Democrat could ever have pulled that off.
All you Trumps the lesser of two evils just can’t admit you were nine elevened. This is twice a Republican was brought in to do a 911 and both times it went off without a hitch.
Couldn’t have said it better. TBP has historically been a place where political dogma and partisan sleight of hand gets called out. It’s quite interesting to see those who are somehow unable to call bullshit when it’s “their guy” doing it. That’s probably the biggest blackpill for me in all this.
What’s a black pill? I’m always 5 years behind on lingo.
It follows The Matrix analogy. To me the black pill says that in reality there is no hope because everything else is a false choice and most people are too suggestible and married to their ideology to ever pose a serious threat to the system.
TC
OK, I agree with that completely. We as a country are just going to roll over and take the mark. Especially here, they absolutely refuse to send their sacred cows to the butcher. That includes the sacred cows of Capitalism and not all Jews are complicit in the Zionist attack, and that after the Civil War we will rebuild something better.
The only reason I bother making comments is the hope that it might catch the eye of a lurker passing through and cause them to inquire. My debates or arguments are not even directed at the person I’m debating because I already know they are not asking for evidence. My future is based on Faith in the hereafter.
In a year, when Zappa’s Illusion is no longer needed and they pull back the curtain we will see feudalism with a few Commie trappings.
Isn’t a black pill where you take too much milk of magnesia and it all comes out black?