Why So Many Middle-Aged Deaths in 2021?

Guest Post by Genevieve Briand

chart-middle-age-death

Martin Kulldorff recently wrote the following:

For the mRNA vaccines, the big question that needs an urgent answer is whether they cause an increased risk of heart attack and/or other serious heart problems. There are many anecdotal reports, especially among young male athletes, and many VAERS reports.

He further writes:

Public health officials face a temptation to summarily dismiss anecdotal vaccine injury stories and people concerned about the publicly available VAERS reports, but in public health, we cannot do that. We must take people’s concerns seriously.

What’s an economist’s reaction to anecdotal evidence? A friend recently asked me about the statistical relevance of anecdotal evidence. My answer to him was the following. The sum of life experiences by the many leads to a picture of the whole, while a picture of the whole hides unique and varied life experiences.

No “anecdotal evidence” should be dismissed a priori, just because it has been observed over a small and/or unique sample.  The questions are the same, whether about “anecdotal evidence” or “evidence over a larger sample or population”: Have we really observed a change in the pattern in our data? What kind of inferences, if any, can we make from our observations?

I have never paid much attention to athletes (no offense to the athletes), but I have recently paid attention to U.S. deaths. Using publicly available CDC data, I simply plotted monthly U.S. deaths, from 1999 to 2021.

To my surprise, deaths due to suicides do not show an increase in 2020-21. But we thought they did, didn’t we? Does this mean we were not paying attention to suicides before, but recent events made us more attune to the suffering of others? Or does it mean deaths of despair are found in other cause of death categories? Deaths due to accidental poisoning and exposure to noxious substances (which include accidental drug and alcohol overdose) have increased. Deaths due to homicide, and deaths due to liver diseases, have too.

Some thought April 2020 deaths were too high and justified putting our lives on hold, but January 2021 numbers were worse—the percentage death rate in 2021 is the same as it was in 2020. Why the increase in January 2021 deaths? Continued upward trend in deaths due to the increase and aging of the US population? Deaths of despair? Increased deaths due to untreated conditions in 2020? Deaths due to COVID or one of its variants? Vaccine deaths?

In 2021, death numbers have peaked at unprecedented levels, in September, for the 45-54, 35-44 and 25-34 years old. September 2021 deaths for the 65-74 and 55-64 years old were also higher than their April 2020 numbers.

Ok, so why is that significant? Let’s take the 45-54 years old group for example. Seasonal variations in deaths for this group has always been less pronounced than for the 85 years and older group, but whatever peaks they had, they still occurred mostly in January for both groups—so a 45-54 years old death peak in September is unheard of.

Why the increase in September 2021 deaths? Continued upward trend in deaths due to the increase and aging of the US population? Deaths of despair? Not consistent with a September peak of deaths. Increased deaths due to untreated conditions in 2020? Deaths due to COVID or one of its variants? Not consistent with a peak of deaths predominantly observed for “younger” age groups.

Vaccine deaths? The January 2021 peak, which is higher than the April 2020 one, is dominated by deaths from 65 years and older age groups. The September 2021 peak is dominated by 64 years and younger age groups.

But don’t those peaks also correspond to the COVID-19 ones? That’s correct.

But, while the April 2020 and January 2021 COVID-19 deaths peaks show the usual age distribution, with deaths experienced in greater numbers for older age groups, the September 2021 does not.  In September 2021, recorded COVID-19 deaths show 65-74 years old died in greater numbers than 75 years and older, and COVID-19 deaths for the 45-54 years old were as high as for the 85 years and older.

This has never happened before for deaths due to respiratory diseases, from 1999 to 2019. These September 2021 peaks for “younger” age groups are consistent with the vaccine deaths hypothesis.

My motivation has always been to minimize the suffering. Even if COVID-19 had been alarming, panic certainly wouldn’t help. Even if the vaccines were harmless, denying individuals the ability to opt out, doesn’t help the ones who willingly opt for it. Am I afraid to admit COVID vaccines have caused deaths? Are you?

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13 Comments
Anonymous
Anonymous
April 22, 2022 9:02 am

in public health, … We must take people’s concerns seriously.

LOL

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Anonymous
April 22, 2022 6:27 pm

Anybody really look at the top graph?

All I can see is that 2021 deaths were lower than every other year if I’m reading it correctly.
And 2020 deaths were lower than they were in half of all the other years.

Wasn’t there supposed to be a pandemic in there somewhere?

What is that top graph?

Con-vid1984
Con-vid1984
April 22, 2022 9:12 am

“Why So Many Middle-Aged Deaths in 2021?”
It’s just a friggin mystery I tell you. Nothing has changed over the last couple of years. No mass injections of unknown poisons. Just can’t figure it out. Oh well, we’ll just have to wait a few years for our loving, benevolent governments to explain it to us plebs.

Ghost
Ghost
  Con-vid1984
April 22, 2022 9:18 am

Am I afraid to admit COVID vaccines have caused deaths? Are you?

Two good questions.

I’m not afraid, but no one will hear me.

A doctor has a professional reason to be afraid. And that is what scares me.

ICE-9
ICE-9
April 22, 2022 10:03 am

Just wait until the geomagnetic pole shits to the point where there is no north or south pole and the van Allen belt disappears and we are all bathed in and order of magnitude increase in solar radiation. Toba Event will be a walk in the park.

Glock-N-Load
Glock-N-Load
  ICE-9
April 22, 2022 11:45 am

When should I expect this to happen?

ICE-9
ICE-9
  Glock-N-Load
April 22, 2022 12:17 pm

170 years at current pole shift velocity and acceleration but effects will begin to be felt in next 50 years. Last one was 780,000 years ago. Could very well be what is commonly described as a Biblical Event.

BTW we know this happens as the dipole moments of the crustal minerals on either side side of the Atlantic Rift change 180 degrees in distinct geomagnetic bands of magnetic striping. When the hot un-crystallized magma reaches the surface, this dipole moment is “locked in” in either a north or south direction when the magma cools and solidifies according to whether magnetic north is at either the north or south geographic pole. At the edges of these magnetic stripes, there is no predominant magnetic dipole in the crustal minerals which results when there are no magnetic poles. The Magnetic poles are what creates the van Allen belt, and it is this van Allen belt that shields the earth from lethal doses of solar and cosmic radiation.

This was the finding in the 1960s that eventually “proved” the then theory of plate tectonics.

TOMMY
TOMMY
  ICE-9
April 22, 2022 1:26 pm

My theory is the exact opposite.

fujigm
fujigm
  ICE-9
April 22, 2022 1:33 pm

170 years at current pole shift velocity and acceleration
Having to update aero charts more frequently as poles are moving much more quickly than anticipated by NOAA. Aero charts have an adjustment to compensate for true north and magnetic north in flight planning.

ICE-9
ICE-9
  fujigm
April 22, 2022 2:28 pm

We have the same issue with down hole inertial guidance systems used in directional drilling. These tools are calibrated to magnetic declination and ones position relative to the surface and every few months they need updating.

Warren
Warren
  ICE-9
April 22, 2022 10:16 pm

And if the magma under the Earth’s crust is made less viscus, then the weight of the Greenland ice sheet can pull the surface south towards the equator. Causing a catastrophic pole shift.

Massive Pole Shifts are Cyclic according to Declassified CIA Document

CrossingTheRubicon
CrossingTheRubicon
April 22, 2022 10:11 am

“in public health, … We must take people’s concerns seriously.”

in public health, … We must take people’s symptoms seriously.

in public health, … We must take some people’s symptoms seriously.

in public health, … We must take some pharma profits seriously.

in public health, … We must take ALL Big Pharma profits seriously.

Finally, FIFY!

h/t Anon

Abigail Adams
Abigail Adams
April 22, 2022 1:37 pm

GNL…I’ve always been on the same page as you in your comments, and still am, but I know a man who suddenly dropped dead of a heart attack the other day. Low 40s, very healthy, in shape & ate well. He died while working out. Vaxxed & boosted. First person I’ve known directly to die this way since the chaos started.