Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
A high-level Navy official said Wednesday that the US should prepare for the possibility of China invading Taiwan as soon as this year. “So when we talk about the 2027 window, in my mind, that has to be a 2022 window or potentially a 2023 window. I can’t rule it out,” said Adm. Michael Gilday, the chief of naval operations.
The “2027 window” refers to a claim from retired Adm. Phil Davidson, the former head of US Indo-Pacific Command, who said last year he believes China could invade within six years. Gilday said he was prioritizing a “fight tonight” posture for the US Navy with respect to China and Russia.
Gilday said his assessment was based on comments Chinese President Xi Jinping made this week, although the Chinese leader only reiterated that he seeks “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan but won’t rule out the use of force.
“It’s not just what President Xi says, but it’s how the Chinese behave and what they do,” Gilday said. “What we’ve seen over the past 20 years is that they have delivered on every promise they’ve made earlier than they said they were going to deliver on it.”
While US officials are always warning that China is planning to invade Taiwan, Beijing has little interest in doing so as it would require the largest amphibious invasion in military history.
If China chooses to take military action against Taiwan, it would likely initially opt for a blockade, which it simulated in unprecedented exercises around the island in response to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) visiting Taipei.
Gilday’s warning comes as the US is working to send massive amounts of weapons to Taiwan. While done in the name of deterrence, China’s actions and rhetoric make it clear that more US support for Taiwan will make Chinese military action more likely.
“When we talk about the 2027 window, in my mind that has to be a 2022 window or a potentially a 2023 window. I can’t rule that out. I don’t mean at all to be alarmist by saying that, it’s just that we can’t wish that away.” — @USNavyCNO https://t.co/tQLqQWDg1f
— Ian Easton (@Ian_M_Easton) October 21, 2022
During his speech earlier this week, Xi also warned strongly against “interference” from outside forces, and other Chinese officials have explicitly warned that US support for Taiwan’s “independence forces” could lead to war.
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The hook-noses need a distraction to hide their dying worldwide debt ponzi. DO NOT JOIN THE MILITARY.
Wishful thinking.
Two possibilities:
1. Pretext for invasion arises. Invasion happens. US Navy takes the bait and suffers severe losses. Air war follows. US loses Pacific dominance at best, Chinese troops in Japan, S. Korea, Australia, Hawaii, California at worst.
2. Political and diplomatic intrigue, abetted by American perfidy, impels Taiwan to negotiate a Hong Kong style accession. Better for them than to be the Asian Ukraine.
Right now China is waging a war of attrition against Taiwan, wearing them down. The multiple incursions into Taiwan airspace requires Taiwan to send out a sortie to meet them. This wears down men and machinery. It may very well be, knowing the US’s history of bailing on allies, that Taiwan may just open the door to China and invite them in.
Either way if China invades or gets invited in, the US of A(ssholes) is hooped seven ways to sunday… no chips for you…
“Air war follows”
I don’t think so. Having just lost their surface fleet, they won’t also risk their air force. They’ll launch the missiles first. The Air Force is for strafing survivors to prepare for boots on the ground…or as a last stand defense.
Look at all the medals and ribbons on those navy officers. Clearly they must have stormed the beach at Normandy a few times as well as other super amazing feats during their time in service. Rolls eyes.
I know right… experts, in pronoun survival. I’m thinking…
They would pretty much HAVE to be in this day and age, wouldn’t they?
When did survival become a bad thing?
“Are WE the baddies?!”
IMO, if you are considered a professional and you have to compromise on principles to ‘survive’, then you are not a survivor but a coward. Only cowards bend as the wind blows, principled stands firm, stand on a Rock…
That ridiculousness was also the 1st thing I noticed.
If the chinese are going to do it this winter would be absolutely the best time. With the US military weak, economy in shambles, fuel prices outrageous and SPR drawn dangerously low, I cannot think of a better time to poke the paper tiger.
You do realize that they are under direct orders to display ALL medals awarded when in Class A uniform, right? I can look up the UCMJ code if you like…or you can do it yourself.
The way I see it, with all that chest lettuce, they must have done something right at some point…even by accident. Give a schlub a break.
My wifes pappy was a WW2 vet and seriously there were countries and military and even the Queens office looking to send medals to him. He served on a landing craft and the ONLY action he saw was on D-Day, period. It was a combined ops and basically they ‘trained’ and hauled cargo everywhere. He got medals from Malta, because he was there for a few days, he got medals from the Queens office because he was in the UK for a while.
So while the chest lettuce is a requirement to display doesn’t really mean squat when likely most are participation ribbons. Maybe we all should start wearing our ribbons from grade school so we can get those thank yous and discounts too…
Also as for giving the shlub a break… why?? Is he one of the douche bags merely following higher ups dictates to secure further promotions?? Or is he a rebel and standing up saying we shouldn’t be going to wars. I used to have respect for military people but after seeing the entitlement of the wifes pappy, and other military friends I know, I have since changed my mind.
DON’T UNDER ESTIMATE THE CHINESE MY FRIEND, THEY DID COME UP WITH SUN TZU MASTER TACTICIAN.
If they touch TSMC, that’ll cripple the world no problem.
Frankly, I’m surprised they’ve put it off this long. It’s coming all right. Only a matter of time.
Taiwan is worthless to them without the chip factories. In order to be successful, they must have enough sleeper cells in place, and the ability to land special forces covertly to gain control of the factories, which are surely highly guarded, prior to the actual start of the invasion.
Plans may also involve a first strike on Japan who has declared it would defend Taiwan. It may also include N Korea attacking Japan with missiles while invading S Korea. The launching of missiles over Japan so many times in the past was done to gain targeting data. They were developing information.
I lived in Japan for 2 years. the jap navy will knock the shit out of the chinks. Air Force numbers just are not there. N and S Korea would be a stalemate.
MORE LIKELY IT WILL BE THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. WITH GOVERNOR NEWSOM HELPING THE CHICOMS TAKE THE PORTS ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, OREGON AND WASHINGTON.
That the US is trying to force China to invade Taiwan is obvious by its recent ban on chip technology to China. Taiwan makes the most technologically advanced chips in the world and with the US cutting China off from chip tech, the acquisition of Taiwan’s chip making capability is China’s only option to continue its progress.
The problem for China is two fold. First it would have to invade in a manor which would secure the chip factories before Taiwan could destroy them, and second it would have to deal with US military intervention.
With the Chinese in possession of operational hyper-sonic missile systems, US navy presence within a thousand miles is vulnerable. This includes bases in Guam.
With US stockpiles of weapons and ammunition, as well as oil in strategic reserve, at its low point from the war in Ukraine and ill advised political decisions, combined with the anti ship advantage, China may decide moving now is better than waiting.
Every war is different as technology advances. The unknown factor in today’s world is going to be what effect drones and automation will have on conflicts. There are sure to be secret weapons on both sides that will change the tactics and outcomes, but how advanced that tech is and how many each side has been able to squirrel away in underground facilities is unknown.
What we do know is that China’s drone industry is capable of producing drones in much greater numbers and at lower costs.
War has a way of changing geopolitical power bases, especially when the conflict involves old imperial powers and newer growing powers with larger industrial capabilities.
hypersonic are not yet produced in high numbers to be a game changer and the accuracy against a moving ship is questionable.
I think ships don’t move quick enough relative to a hypersonic missile. That’d be like someone shooting at your hand with a rifle and you trying to pull away fast enough to not get shot…
pretty sure your moving hand isn’t going to be an issue…